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Recession

Oil Collapse | WTICOUSD About to Give it Up!I called the oil top in June 2022 and I have been building / holding a massive leveraged short position ever since then. This market will take YEARS to recover, after the current selloff is complete. I will continue to cover the devastation, along the way. Don't listen to the media - they are lost. Question your "advisors" - they are going to encourage you to "stay invested", it's what they do. Ultimately, the decision to ride out this market will cost you dearly. If you are able, GET OUT OF THE MARKETS. There is nowhere to hide!
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by ChiefMacro
2
S&P 500 ($SPY) COLLAPSE | Recession Alert!!Behold, devastation just up ahead. $2500 is probable in the S&P. Retirements are about to be wiped out. As a friendly reminder, the "401K is free money" narrative is going to evaporate. The media will soon be out in full force talking about: "stay the course" "remember your goals" "stay invested" "LFG" "buy the dip" So foolish. If you are trapped in a retirement fund (401K), the best thing you can do right now is get defensive. Sell ALL "growth stocks" and shift all of your wealth into cash and / or bonds. Be careful out there, everyone! Something major is happening on a global scale!
TVC:SPXShort
by ChiefMacro
9
RECESSION ALERT | Total Vehicle Sales Data Print DelayedWith last months revision of 818,000 jobs, it is probably safe to conclude that other data points have also been incorrectly reported (manipulated for political purposes). Total Vehicle Sales for the month of August 2024 were supposed to be published today. As of 8:45 PM EST, the data STILL has not been released.. HUH?? Total vehicle sales are a leading economic indicator. I’m guessing the numbers are bad.. really bad. In Germany, the economic powerhouse of Europe, vehicle sales collapsed in August (in August 2024). The absence of today's scheduled print is a choice. Someone decided that Total Vehicle Sales (for the month of August 2024) would not be released as scheduled. In addition to illustrating the obvious failures of the current US political administration, this is also a strong indicator that Tesla ( the entire green new scam ) is on the verge of bankruptcy. I will explain this in more detail later.
FRED:TOTALSA
by ChiefMacro
2
XIU / TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange)The TSX / XIU (ETF) is going down over the next 8 months, no doubt in my mind as a Canadian. Housing is not selling, starts are being cancelled / going bankrupt, we are over-populated and our infrastructure can not handle it. The rate decreases won't save our over-leveraged banks (real-estate, mostly residential, down 20% in many areas and still barely any buyers and many looking to exit - investors primarily). No way this holds these levels. I bought Feb 2025 $34 puts for $0.65 CAD. I expect this could be a ten bagger, especially if they finally admit Canada and USA and the world is in a massive recession. It is undeniable here. Foodbanks are empty and people are too strapped to donate (or are sick of seeing "students" from India eating "free food" meant for Canadians - many of whom are struggling). This stock price is a joke. Good luck to all!
TSX:XIUShort
by mraso30
3
BTC will continue to increase forever, but not in the short term COINBASE:BTCUSD , NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:COIN , AMEX:HODL , AMEX:ARKB NASDAQ:IBIT , AMEX:GBTC The Long-Term Bullish Case The fundamental argument for Bitcoin's long-term bullishness remains strong. The US Dollar, as the world's reserve currency, has been steadily losing value over time due to excessive government spending and quantitative easing. This inflationary environment creates an ideal backdrop for Bitcoin, which is designed to be a deflationary asset with a limited supply. As investors seek to protect their wealth from inflation, Bitcoin's appeal as a store of value becomes increasingly compelling. Increased Institutional Investment One of the most significant developments in the cryptocurrency market has been the growing interest from institutional investors. These large financial institutions, such as hedge funds, pension funds, and asset managers, have the potential to significantly impact Bitcoin's price and volatility. As more institutions allocate a portion of their portfolios to Bitcoin, several positive effects can be expected: Decreased Volatility: Institutional investors tend to be more patient and less prone to panic selling than individual investors. Their long-term investment horizons and sophisticated risk management strategies can help to stabilize Bitcoin's price and reduce volatility. Improved Store of Value: Increased institutional adoption can enhance Bitcoin's reputation as a reliable store of value. As more mainstream financial institutions recognize Bitcoin's potential, it is likely to become a more widely accepted asset, which could boost its price and strengthen its position as a hedge against inflation. Increased Liquidity: Institutional participation can increase the liquidity of the Bitcoin market, making it easier for investors to buy and sell the cryptocurrency without significantly impacting its price. This can further contribute to price stability and reduce volatility. While the fundamental factors supporting Bitcoin's long-term bullish case remain strong, the technical analysis suggests a short-term bearish trend may be in play. Bitcoin is currently trading within a descending channel, a technical pattern that indicates a potential downtrend. This negative channel is formed by two downward-sloping lines that constrain the price action. As long as Bitcoin remains within this channel, there is a risk of further price declines. Additionally, a bearish crossover has occurred between Bitcoin's 100-day and 50-day moving averages and the 200-day moving average. This technical indicator is often used to identify potential trend reversals. When the shorter-term moving averages (100-day and 50-day) cross below the longer-term moving average (200-day), it is generally considered a negative signal, suggesting that the price may be heading lower.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Average_Joe_Options
$USINTR / US Federal Reserve Interest Rate 2024-2025US Federal Reserve Interest Rate 2024-2025 And here’s the chart of the interest rate. ECONOMICS:USINTR I’ll just take a wild guess! Don’t judge me too harshly, but they might keep the rate steady, with a potential cut closer to the elections. Logically, though, it would make more sense to cut it now, so the masses think there’s no recession coming and that the “Democrats” are saving the world like Chip and Dale. But people seem to forget that it’s the Democrats who’ve hiked the rate from 0.25% to 5.5% over the past four years, putting the economy in its worst shape in the last 15 years. Getting excited about these 0.25-0.5 point cuts is, at the very least, naive. So, at the November meeting, most likely just before the elections, we might see a “boost”—a rate cut of 0.5, or even a whole point (wishful thinking). This could lead to another spike in Bitcoin’s price. These thoughts lead me to believe that the Democrats (Kamala Harris) will win, followed by one more meeting in December, where they might hold or lower the rate again with the new U.S. president in place. And by late January 2025, the world might plunge into chaos, oops—I mean the rates will start climbing again. The next cut might not come until 2026. That’s why I’d expect the recession we’ve been hearing about for over two and a half years to finally kick in. Just my two cents!
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by trushkovskiy
Yield Curve Inversion: A Warning Sign You Can't IgnoreThe yield curve, which shows the difference between short-term and long-term interest rates on government bonds (US10Y-US02Y). In normal market conditions, this number should be positive because the interest that investors require on 10Y bonds is higher than the interest required on 2Y bonds. Interest is a value of risk perception. Higher risk of default means higher required interest on bonds. As seen on the chart, the moment that the yield-curve "un-inverts" (yellow circles) is a critical market indicator that can often predict upcoming recessions. In the last 35 years, the un-inversion has always preceded a dump in stock prices and a recession. Seeing this chart, it's not too far-fetched to assume that the world will go into a recession at some point in the next 1-2 years.
TVC:US10Y
by FieryTrading
4
RECESSION ALERT - Homebuilders WAY Overbought | SHORT $KBHLeverage. It's a beautiful thing. There is not much to say about this one, the chart speaks for itself. Brief Disclaimer: this chart has evaded me - I personally think it should have corrected awhile ago (see grey arrows). Nonetheless, I never bought it... WHY?: The economy is now well into a recession (has been for at least a year). For whatever reason this thing was bought into the stratosphere. Now comes profit-taking and the COLLAPSE! This baby is going DEEP! Thank you for playing. 💀💀💀
NYSE:KBHShort
by ChiefMacro
1
Disney About to Give it Up! | $DIS SHORTLooks like the moment of truth for Mickey & Co. I have been covering this one for a long time, with numerous mentions that Disney is a sell / short. How low this thing will go, we do not know. Right now I am comfortable saying, -50% is probable. While there are many factors in play, the broader economy is weak and Disney has done nothing but push people away with their radical political positions. Additionally, the destruction of "woke" mob is unfolding before our eyes. Short Disney. Make Money. If this changes, I will update.
NYSE:DISShort
by ChiefMacro
4
Knock Knock. Who's There? Vibecession Ft. US Interest RatesHello Everyone, IMPORTANT: ALL FED POLICIES LEAD TO NEGATIVE OUTCOMES TLDR AT THE END In February 2022 the Federal Reserve gave us the fastest rate raising campaign in history to try and combat very high inflation, but they were very late in raising rates causing one of the worst inflation in 40 years. During his speech at Jackson Hole he confirms rate cuts in September due to inflation being under control and the labor market "cooling." Good news is inflation is under control, however this is only the start of our labor market "cooling." Jerome Powell is extremely late in cutting rates and will be cutting rates because we are getting BAD economic data and the cracks are showing in our labor market, commercial real estate, and banking sectors. The Federal Reserve 100% KNOWS a recession is coming that is why they are cutting rates. We have Jerome Powell come up on stage sweet talk to us about a soft landing, inflation under control, and how he will cut rates to help the labor market. He's not going to be instilling fear in Americans as a chairman. Just Remember, ALL FED POLICIES LEAD TO NEGATIVE OUTCOMES. Recession is coming, Sahm rule and inverted yield curve hasn't been wrong and it won't be wrong this time. This time it's not different. TLDR: Jerome Powell is too late in cutting rates causing a recession
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by justaturboman44
1
Federal Reserve is Behind the Curve, Recession is 100% CONFIRMEDHello everyone, The federal reserve has kept interest rates at near zero and printed the MOST money in US history back in 2020 and this has caused one of the worst inflation in 40 years. Jerome Powell decided to fight inflation by giving us the fastest rate raising campaign in history. He has kept rates too high for too long and we are now guaranteed a recession. Jerome Powell will find himself in a position to cut rates very fast due to the cracks in the job market. It is already too late we will be witnessing a huge spike in unemployment. Who knows how high this can go, back in 1929 unemployment hit 24.9%.
FRED:UNRATE
by justaturboman44
Recession After Fed Rate Cut?Are we heading toward recession? To answer this question, I'm pulling the recession prediction indicator based on GDP provided by FED (ticker:JHGDPBRINKDX) which is the purple color on the bottom chart. It shows that we are on fairly low probability of recession (around 4%) as of end of Aug 2024. The FED indicates it will cut rate on end of Sep 2024. However, if we look back of history of recession based on GDP indicated by FED data (ticker: JHDUSRGDPBR) which is the pink color. It shows that recession only happen right after FED cut rate as show by lime color (ticker:FEDFUNDS). It hard to believe that recession is caused by the FED cutting rate. Or the FED will only cut rate if we are heading toward recession? At least from the past history of rate cut we can see high chance of recession happening after the FED cut rate. And during the recession we can see that S&P500 are falling. So will there be another crash coming after Sep 2024? Please comments below.
SP:SPX
by danny_peanuts
1
Is Warren Buffett Losing Faith in Bank of America?A Strategic Shift with Far-Reaching Implications Warren Buffett, the legendary investor and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, has taken a significant step that has sent ripples through the financial world. Berkshire, a long-time major shareholder of Bank of America (BofA), has been steadily selling its stake in the bank. This strategic move, totaling over $3.8 billion in sales, has raised eyebrows and sparked speculation about the future of BofA. Buffett's decision to reduce Berkshire's holdings in BofA is a departure from his typical investment strategy, which often involves long-term, unwavering commitments. This shift raises questions about his perception of the bank's prospects and the broader financial landscape. The implications of this move extend beyond Berkshire and BofA. As one of the most closely watched investors in the world, Buffett's actions can influence market sentiment and investor behavior. His decision to sell BofA shares could signal a potential shift in his outlook on the banking sector or broader economic conditions. To learn more about the reasons behind Buffett's decision, the potential impact on Bank of America, and the broader implications for the financial sector, please visit our website.
NYSE:BACShort
by signalmastermind
2
NASDAQ - US100 Facing Bearish PressureThe CAPITALCOM:US100 index is currently facing significant downward pressure, largely due to mounting concerns about the U.S. economy. The potential for a recession is growing as recent data points to an increase in unemployment claims, and the Federal Reserve has decided to delay interest rate cuts. This has created uncertainty in the markets, as higher unemployment could lead to reduced consumer spending, further exacerbating the economic slowdown. The anticipation of prolonged higher interest rates is also weighing on investor sentiment, making the stock market, particularly tech-heavy indexes like NASDAQ, more vulnerable to declines. Technically, the BLACKBULL:NAS100 index has been following a clear pattern of reactions to its trendlines. The index recently fell and touched the third trendline support, which has historically been a critical level for determining market direction. After this touch, the index attempted a recovery, moving back towards the second trendline, which now acts as a breakeven point. However, the failure to break through this level and the subsequent rejection suggests that the bears are firmly in control. The pattern indicates that the index may face further declines, particularly if it breaches the third trendline support. In conclusion, both fundamental and technical factors are pointing towards a bearish outlook for the NASDAQ index. The rising possibility of a recession, driven by increasing unemployment claims and the Fed’s cautious approach to rate cuts, has dampened investor sentiment. On the technical side, the index’s inability to reclaim key trendline supports indicates that more downside is likely. As a result, investors should be cautious and prepared for potential further declines in the NASDAQ index in the coming weeks.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Sober_Trading
Sector Rotation in Anticipation of Rate CutsMarkets have rebounded sharply after last week's fear-driven decline. Despite this, rate cuts are still anticipated in the upcoming FOMC meetings. Changes in monetary policy often benefit some sectors over others, providing investors a chance to adjust their portfolio allocations accordingly. This paper delves into a comparative analysis of sectors around monetary policy pivots to highlight how a spread between S&P Financials Select Sector and S&P Utilities Select Sector stands to benefit in the coming months. It also describes a hypothetical trade setup using CME E-Mini S&P Select Sector futures which can be used to express the view in a margin-efficient manner. RATE CUTS WILL HURT FINANCIAL FIRMS Financial firms benefit significantly from higher rates, as these drive net interest margin (NIM) expansion, boosting their bottom line. However, when rates start to decrease, this positive impact reverses. The Financials Select Sector ETF (XLF) is comprised of 25% banks, 31% financial services firms, and 16.6% insurance firms. All these firms have benefited from higher rates, albeit the strongest impact may be limited to banks and insurance firms whose overall bottom line is significantly impacted by expanding NIM. In the last three monetary policy pivots, XLF has declined by an average of 5.6% over the following six months. Conversely, at the start of rate hikes, the ETF has typically risen by an average of 3.7% in the subsequent six months. While the most recent pivot in 2019 saw an increase in XLF, the overall average trend suggests a decline. The trend is visible even when examining the relative performance of XLF and SPX. Following rate cuts, the spread declined by an average of 2.8% while during rate increases, it declined by just 1.1%. There is another headwind facing the XLF ETF, particularly banks – rising credit delinquencies. Credit card delinquencies are especially concerning as they stood at the highest level in 13 years as of Q1 2024. Overall delinquencies are also rising and near the highest level since 2021. Updated data from the New York Fed has shown that conditions remained stressed in Q2 with total delinquencies at 3.2%. Particularly concerning were severe (>90 days delinquent) credit card delinquencies at a staggering 10.93%. Consumers are increasingly relying on unsustainable credit card debt to cover expenses. As delinquencies remain elevated, issuing banks must increase loan loss provisions which impacts earnings directly. Source: New York Fed As credit card usage becomes unsustainable, another class of companies in XLF – payment processors - will also be hurt. The largest payment processors (Visa, Mastercard, and Amex) represent nearly 15% of the XLF index. RATE CUTS WILL BENEFIT UTILITY FIRMS Unlike financial firms, utility companies have struggled in a high-rate environment. As their huge capital expenditure is often fueled by debt, higher rates result in narrower profits. As rates decline, debt payments decrease, leading to expanded profit margins for utility firms. Historically, the ETF has shown a significant average increase after rate hikes and a smaller increase after rate cuts. This behavior might be due to investors anticipating a weakening economy following rate cuts, which would favor utility firms. However, the index tends to correct later once rates remain elevated for some time. The impact is close to even when comparing the relative performance against the broader S&P 500 with both periods resulting in a ~6% increase in the spread. Utility firms are also likely to outperform in case of a US recession. Although some of the concerning economic data has normalized over the past week, the risk of a recession in the US persists. As utility firms provide essential services, their cash flows are relatively stable even during recessions. While consumers may cut down on discretionary spending, spending on essential services remains unaffected. Mint Finance previously covered these factors in a separate paper. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP A pivot in Fed Policy is expected in the upcoming FOMC meetings with the CME FedWatch tool signaling 100 basis points of rate cuts in 2024 itself. Rate cuts will impact different sectors differently. While utility firms stand to benefit from lower rates, financial firms may see lower profits. Source: CME FedWatch The spread between CME E-Mini Utilities Select Sector Futures (XAU) and CME E-Mini Financial Select Sector Futures (XAF) has been rising since March as it has favored XAU. The spread responded strongly to a shift in rate cut sentiment as well as the recession signal at the start of the month. The recent correction over the past week offers an improved entry point into the spread. A hypothetical trade setup using XAU futures expiring in September (XAUU2024) and XAF futures expiring in September (XAFU2024) is described below. CME offers margin offset totaling 60% for this spread reducing the capital requirement to USD 3,740. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:XAU1!Long
by mintdotfinance
Why are Interest rates falling? Time to buy? We have seen an amazing fall in interest rates. Bonds have looked to put in a local bottom. Why are bonds showing signs of accumulation? Is the bond market pricing in a recession? I believe the recent decline in yields is due to commodity weakness. Yields have soften because energy & base metals have become cheaper. This drives the disinflationary narrative. I think its to early to tell whether this decline is from demand or global weakness.
TVC:US10Y
by Trading-Capital