Nice 1:17 sellWith a rapid rise there is almost always a rapid drop in price, especially with the recent energy news, be ready for a storm as we are potentially in an even wors recession, mark my words. September will be crazy!!!!!!
Recession
SXP ELLIOT WAVE COUNT!!! GREAT DEPRESSION 2.0If u know Elliot wave I’d reccoment testing that count lmfao. Essentially all ratios align perfectly not only through proportions between waves but also through history aligning with these shifts.
I provided two retracement which represent the potential pull down of this wave 4 we are most likely in. (The wave 1-3 ratio is 1-2.474 as seen by the blue dotted line). Honestly my strat is just dollar cost average those points. Happy depression everyone :)
$SPY $SPX Key Levels, Analysis and Targets $SPY $SPX Key Levels, Analysis and Targets
So, WOW, that was one heck of a nasty daily candle there on Friday!! 😏 (And check out the monthly if you haven’t seen it yet 😬 that candle even scares me... lol
There’s a nice little gap down in futures $ESF! right now…. I’m going to be watching that gap at open and if it tries to fill I will take that opportunity to sell some call spreads, for either Monday or Wednesdays expiration… probably Wednesday… or maybe buy some weekly puts if I'm feeling wild...
I still have my 435 and 450 puts and they are looking great, up 39% and 36% respectively and they only have 82 days left on them so I’m going to be looking to close those out and slide onto either the December or January contracts…. I also have Sept 16 402 puts that are up 236% (don't laugh but they were supposed to be the hedge for my long puts and I was going to sell 402 but I bought it instead and my mistake made me 236% LOL)
As far as support, the next level is at the top of the gap 394, bottom of the gap at 391 and support at 389 and then the trendline that could catch it as well so those are going to be my take profit levels for now…
And to the upside I’d be looking at 410ish as resistance…, maybe 413 on the high side… and with vix back at 25 you just never know…
I also wouldn’t be surprised to see vix up 10% again tomorrow….
So yeah… 389 is still my target and let’s see how the technicals look from there!!! And I just noticed that this pattern is extremely similar to the end of the march rally— kind of inverse cup and handle-y…. If that’s even a word….
Happy trading tomorrow, y’all…. 💃🏻
—-
I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed.
GL and happy trading.
Bitcoin In a Sucker's Rallyhello frends its ur pal coinholio and i have an opinion abou the marked
my thinkings is that the bit coin is not at a good price. too much people think that fed will pivot at the first sign of a down turn and we will get qe to maek price again. me no thinks that will happen sooner enough until market is alredy worse than it be right now. there is a rally in stocks that bitcoin follow right now because some peeps think we can land softly, but i think we will land on our bungholes, let me explain the reason why:
fed pause is not fed stimmy
if internet rates make a rise, the fed will stop making them go. but fed will not give stimmy until everyone gets fired and we are balls deep in a recession. me thinks not only the soft landing narrative is false, it will break down in the next few months and bitty will be mad. recession will come sooner at the end of the year and stimmy in mid to late 2023. the numbers of peoples with job is still very high but its one of the only raisins that we arent in official recessino, spy lags behind, but bitty will follow spy price action and get crushed to oblivion in a recession.
people is buying less stuffs, less stuffs is being producted, there is less supply, less demand, less of the real wagerinos. we is at the cusp of recession and its coming sooner than u think. my source is a forest rat, i met him in a forest and his name is benjamin and he told me that things are looking bad and i should move into the forest with him. then we discusted the market and he said he sold his house a few months ago. some people use like, leading and coincidence indicators to make decides about this but woodland creatures i thin can tell a more accurate story about whas gonna happen. im gonna not post much cuz they dont have internet in the forest but i put a lot of money into james bond and took him into the forest cuz apparently he does goodly during slowing economix gross.
thank you for watching if u like my video please smash that like button and subscribe to my channel and dont forget to enable the notifications so i can tell u which berries are safe to eat and which ones give u the runs
UK100 short in next two monthsUk100 is always the odd one to trade.
I’m expecting this to fall to 6800 area in the next two months.
It won’t happen quickly, there is a major support at 7220-7080, and even stronger support at 6950-7000.
Look into previous years: September - November are statistically the weakest months for trading. It doesn’t mean this year will be the same but I would be very careful on going long now.
Despite what some might say, the economies are slowing down. GDP for last two quarters proves that(dictionary definition of recession). Good numbers on employment don’t mean sh** . When interests will go up more and more, people start to struggle to pay bills and mortages, losing jobs… and everyone will surprise that markets colapse!
Sure you can go long now, but if you expect ATH, I’m not sure if we can see that in next 16-18 months.
The recent rally was just a bear rally- powered by retail traders. I don’t see any reason to convince me otherwise at the moment.
I’m not a financial advisor, trading is risky, always do your own analisys before trading.
A look at the market's reaction to JPOW and fomc co. Traders,
Let's talk about today's FOMC press release, the market's current reaction, and where we can expect this will lead us into next week as well as what today's FED vs. BIDEN admin tug-o-war means for future macroeconomic conditions.
ETA for end of recession. Tiny uptick starting.AMEX:SPY
History repeats itself for the most part, so this idea is based solely on similar bear markets. With earnings coming out and the massive drop we've already seen, it's not surprising we're going to be pumping in the short term. I'm looking for a pump to the $420 range before entering puts. Fed's still raising rates and all previous problems are still relevant. Spy anywhere around the 220 mark is a steal.
EW count $ES1! with Predictions BONUS yield curve inversionCME_MINI:ES1!
Hello all!
Just thought I would share my work here today for all those EW analysis junkies to critique. Along with some commentary on current market/geopolitical/economic conditions and where I think we are headed.
With recession on the horizon like pink clouds in the morning for a sailor, we have to get our work (profits) in and get out of the water before the storm wipes us out.
Just like the sailor our work should be done quickly as there will be little time to reel in our catch. There are warning signs abundant that our global economy is coming to a crossroads of debt, supply/demand shock, and geographic positioning for goods.
In my view China has little incentive to get manufacturing back online, just as Russia needs to "fix" it's pipelines all at once. The globe of power is quickly showing it's fault lines. (Saudi Arabia transferring payment to yuan?)
Supply is low as Americans (like me) sit at home on their computers providing endless information through the air-waves and fiber-optic cables. We have become a soft nation through decades relatively peaceful times. We demand high pay and produce less physical or tangible goods, while buying up the worlds supply.
We have had easy financial conditions that are begging to be repaid somehow. With debt over our heads (Debt>GDP) our puppet masters have used this pandemic to engineer a cheaper way to pay it down.
Inflation = more dollars today to pay a fixed rate debt that is less than inflation.
Flooding the economy with digital greenbacks is a win/win/risk. The risk here is that we let inflation get out of control and everyone is chasing the dollar leading to evermore inflation.
I.e. If I sell bread at the market and know that each week my supplies are increasing at an exponential rate I will raise my prices accordingly, leading to my customers to ask for raises. Who, let's say, work at the grain fields, leading to higher grain prices; creating an inflation loop that leaves all participants with a increasingly worthless tender. This is why it is so important for the Fed to speak out ahead of inflation and keep expectations in check. If the Fed can curb that inflation cycle in our mentals then I may only raise my prices to the expected inflation target and no more, effectively putting an inflationary cap on all goods and services of all participants in our great economy.
Now with that said, we have a lot of work to do to right this great ship and sail away from the depression storm. The smart money markets believe it is too late and the fed waited too long to correct. (As I said, I believe it was intentional.) The yield curve inverted in June and is a record setting inversion. Here is how the SPX reacted since the 80s to 2-10s inversions.
As you can see some inversions foreran the markets collapse by months while sometimes the drop coincided with the inversion and in 2006 we actually had an increase of almost 15%! while the curve inverted before dropping around 55%. 2000 being the worse with a rally after 35% drop just to see another 30% drop into 2002/2003
If recent history has taught us anything; you are playing with fire the longer you stay in this market... but history has little to say about today, which I would point to the comp pandemic which I will have to compare next time to the Spanish Flu pandemic in Pt. II.
My final question is, "we are seemingly already in a recession (although the powers that be are trying their best to redefine "recession"), is this drop that we have endured the end or do we see something greater as the historic yield curve inversion is pointing to?
Here are my near term predictions with EW counts and demand/supply zones that I am watching.
Happy Friday!
Sell EURAUD Idea for the medium-termIt's hard to see the Eurozone fall into a recession. Currently, New Zealand seems like it will be able to avoid the same recessionary risks as a result of a global economic slowdown.
The pair has broken below a strong level of support turned resistance. The pair has bounced above this level since 2017. It's easy to see the pair move lower
HEADWINDS TO THIS PLAY
New Zealand retail sales disappointed this week showing that the country's economy may be slowing down.
The country also has more exposure to China, which is struggling to buoy the economy as consumer spending and sentiment keeps falling. If China's economy continues to struggle despite current easing, I expect NZD to be weak.
TAILWINDS TO THIS PLAY
The Eurozone data for August showed PPIs, PMIs and sentiment from both businesses and consumers disappointed to the downside. This has pushed the EURUSD back to parity after a bounce.
The Euro is back to parity and volumes show that traders are not as bearish as they were back in April. However, short positions for non-commercial traders have increased by 70K+ since end May.
Eurozone recessionary worries as a result of high energy prices in the region are placing the Euro as a precarious position. I expect another leg down in the Euro to 0.93-0.95 region.
Time for tesla to come back to reality.based on weekly orderblocks, it seems that price has broken structure to the downside. this means any move back up is to be sold in to.
combined with the general recession/depression that is upon us, this may accelerate any downmove that is to come, which means i am targetting the last real consolidation period before the exponential rise.
time for tesla to do a 10:1 stock split, but just in price this time xD
GEO Group: BullishThe War on Fraud
People Will go to Jail
Government Expenditures are being reduced, however, by giving contracts to the GEO group, the government is bullish on this company.
Fundamentally, net income and net revenue increase, bullish, especially in a time when the US dollar is increasing in value.
Michael Burry's only stock position is GEO group
I see no resistance or walls until at least $20 price levels, easy 100% return on investment. By buying shares, I do not need extra exposure which I typically use option plays for. I will sit on this play. I typically am never this long on something, but I truly believe that in this age of BTC and fraud from people who think the IRS are fools, will be surprised when the feds come knocking for the money. If the fed needs to reduce the money supply, it will do so by any means necessary. Also, like fundamentals, and financials, fully agree with this being way too undervalued.
Just for the record I think EV cars will fail because they have zero towing capacity, likely will look into Hydrogen power instead.
Wheat up four days consecutively & approaching local resistanceTechnically, wheat has seen 4 consecutive sessions of strength. This is in the face of a stronger dollar and recessionary fears, which in theory should sap sentiment and forward demand dynamics. Wheat is approaching key level of resistance at 810. This is a previous POC, that has proved difficult to breach. Though fundamentally wheat should stay bid, considering macro outlook and supply issues, MACD, vwap and RSI all point down to further pressure should this fib retrace become invalidated
Oil Further DownsideOil is going through an indecisive patch.
Was this a Double top? That is the key question we need to answer.
Let us look at some fundamentals:
as the world swings towards a recession, the demand for Oil will see a further fall. Japan wants to restart their nuclear plants, the world is looking for ways to ween off Gas and Oil. Germany & Canada signs a deal to produce green H2.
Looks like the long term headwinds for Oil will stay. In the short term, the indecision is caused by fears of a recession vs the impact of the Jackson Hole annual meetup and its impact on the dollar.
In the short term Oil may head to 95, but in the mid term, it will continue its drive down to 80 and below.
Profit-taking halts the dollar's advanceEUR/USD 🔽
GBP/USD 🔽
AUD/USD 🔽
USD/CAD 🔼
USD/CHF 🔼
USD/JPY 🔼
XAU 🔽
WTI 🔽
A surge in dollar values throughout the first half of the day was followed by a decline against most of the dollar's key competitors. This was caused by unfavorable US statistics, such as the US Services S&P Global PMI dropping to 44.1. Manufacturing contracted at a slower pace than expected from 52.2 to 51.3.
S&P Global PMIs for the majority of the main economies, however, showed sluggish economic growth and even recession, demonstrating it is a global problem. Prior to Wall Street's close, the dollar made some gains as risk-off flows persisted. In the midst of extreme overbought circumstances, the dollar's slide appears corrective. Investors were able to record some profits thanks to tepid US data, but a trend reversal is not evident.
Fabio Panetta, a member of the ECB Executive Board, gave a bleak picture. He stated that when the likelihood of a recession rises, the central bank may need to further modify its monetary policies. In the meantime, speculative interest is gradually but steadily rising on a 75 basis point rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in September.
The GBP/USD exchange rate is at 1.1830, while the AUD/USD rate is around 0.6920. The USD/CAD pair dropped significantly throughout the day, closing at 1.2950.
Safe-haven currencies saw gains against the dollar, with the USD/CHF rate circling at 0.9640 and the USD/JPY rate trading at 136.77.
The price of gold is currently up for the day at $1,7477 per troy ounce, while the price of crude oil has continued its recent rise amid market speculation that OPEC+ may reduce production. Currently, WTI is $93.60 per barrel.
Asia's macroeconomic calendar will stay empty, with Wednesday's US Durable Goods Orders report taking center stage.
More information on Mitrade website.
Yield curve inversion cyclesUS10Y treasury yield minus US02Y treasury yield is an accurate predictor of impending economic recession. Here we compare the 10 Aug 2022 yield curve inversion low point to the low points in 2007 and 2000 that pre-dated the Great Recession and Dot Com stock market crashes. While a small inversion (below 0) does not always pre-date a recession, inversions as low as the current 10 Aug 2022 always have.
Even more interesting is when you zoom in to the daily chart. Here we see the 10Y - 2Y moving back towards 0 from 10 Aug 2022 through 22 Aug 2022, even as stocks have begun to decline since release of the Fed minutes and recent commentary from Fed officials about the importance of continuing with additional rate hikes based on current inflation data.
Just Closed the long postion on the #SQQQ % 4.87 ProfitBase on the technical, the moving 200 day Moving avg of the S&P 500, Give me the indication of this trade
-The fundamentals of the economy aren't improving.
- The negative moment is cause by the Jackson Holl on Fridays, Markets are preparing cause by uncertainty.
I will be DCA on my long term stocks and cryptos and also lock more trades ideas.
Right now is hard to know what the floor is going to, we need more info from the economy, and also know what the fed plants to be which we are going to know on Friday's Jackson Hole meting.
$SPY $SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets$SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets
When 200MA’s Attack!!! This was almost as good as the April 21st 200MA attach where SPY was literally slapped down… Beautiful open, y’all…. Gapped down over the up gap…. And created another down gap…
This is like gap country, which should be fun to navigate…
The 4 hour chart has rolled over and the daily is just about there…
All of my puts are up pretty big this morning and I shut down some of the shorted dated ones, and I’m looking to sell against some of the longer dated ones….
Looks like another fun week ahead….
Happy trading!!
—-
I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed.
GL and happy trading.
IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
Market split bets on the next Fed rate hikeEUR/USD 🔽
GBP/USD 🔽
AUD/USD 🔽
USD/CAD 🔼
XAU 🔽
WTI ▶️
There is a month between now and the next US Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the investors are undecided about how high it would be. Given the falling gas prices, strong labor market, and the looming recession, the US central bank could favor a 50 bps rate hike. On the other hand, the latest comments from Fed officials maintained they are adamant about controlling inflation to 2%, hinting at another 75 bps rate hike.
As a result, the greenback extends its strong run against its peers. EUR/USD slid to 1.0034, and despite having slightly optimistic retail sales readings, GBP/USD stabilized at 1.1820 and closed at 1.1827. The Aussie was held back by a sluggish Chinese economy, AUD/USD went below 0.7000 to 0.6872, while USD/CAD climbed to 1.2993 and edged towards 1.3000.
With another rate hike marked on the calendar, gold’s safe haven status was overshadowed by the US dollar, gold futures declined to $1,762.9 an ounce. Oil prices were stuck between prospects of Iranian oil entering the market and a possible recession, which ended up closing at $90.44 with little change.
In US stocks, Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) enjoyed a rapid rise that reached meme status, but it just lost 40.54% of its market cap, after a major shareholder sold his entire stake.
More information on Mitrade website.
DXY's delayed reaction to yieldsI had this confusing idea and I will show it to you with this confusing chart.
1. First we define the blue vertical lines. These are the drawn on the date of the peak of yield.
( Even though yields drop, dollar continues to grow. Like a delayed reaction. Unsurprisingly, yields lead DXY growth. )
2. Then we draw fib retracements, with 1 being the DXY value at the time of yields peaking. And 0 being the bottom of the DXY jump. The peak of DXY is conveniently at 1.618. (or maybe I conveniently drew the chart such that 1.618 appears every time, to further validate myself)
3. When yields return to "normal levels" (red vertical lines), DXY dives.
The location of the red vertical lines, as well as what is defined as "normal yield level" are defined by the arbitrary target of 1.618 I put.
IF yields have already peaked, and if my theory is correct, DXY will reach 120, and when yields return to where they were. Even if the price target is inaccurate, the fact that DXY continues to grow after yields peak, cannot be ignored.
You must first drop if you want to growThe common saying is "you must get up if you fall"
In my mind, the opposite makes more sense.
If you want to get up, you must first fall. As if you sabotage yourself.
Also BTC 100k by 2026.
21-AUG - BTC in stagflation and global recessionIf you just take into consideration, that so far entire #cryptocurrencies #ecosystem grew up in global #hossa and that #hossa has ended and #global #market is going into #recession, what could this mean to e.g. #BTCUSD ?
During each previous recession (dotcom bubble in 2001, global recession in 2008, etc.) #SPX500 fell down >50%.
We should take into consideration, that #Bitcoin had so far only positive market conditions and previous #BTC #cycles just were the #elliotwave in #uptrend and we shall enter corrective Elliot wave.
#SPX500 could fall again >50% that would crash #Bitcoin heavily.
It's not investment recommendation !!
SPX Bull trap?It is time to pause, I will look into and analyze history'because as they say "history does not repeat itself but it rhymes" I would like to present the comparison of the SPX with the fall suffered in 2007.
If we take as a reference the fall of the Great Recession of 2007, it was a fall of 57% during 518 days that means 17 continuous months of fall, the situation was terrible.
Extrapolating it to 2022, taking into account that the fall lasted that long and the fall was -57%, it replicates so far the trend and movements of 2007.
Are we facing a BULL TRAP or should we rather BUY THE DIP?
Today 20/08/2022 Best regards, good investment.
NASDAQ NQ1 - Brace Yourselves, "Fear" is ComingWhen people consider the COVID-era market cycle, especially the part where everything went up on a 75 degree angle without any particular pullback for a year and a half, they seem to have been groomed during that long process to consider that normal, and that it's going to happen again.
Well, the truth is that it probably is going to happen again. One really critical characteristic of the 30% retrace we've experienced this year is VIX really could not get beyond 35. The demolition was very controlled, and there was little to no fear.
But now that we've had a two month-long bear market rally/bull trap, it's time for fear to take hold, because you need to capitulate, lose money, and get short so that you can buy back higher in October.
In the conventional bubble cycle, such as in WTI Crude 2008 or like, every Bitcoin/crypto pump and dump, markets have followed the conventional bubble pattern:
However, what I believe we have ahead for us is actually a Bump and Run Reversal (BARR) , which will be characterized by a significant, quick, and violent dump below the previous lows.
Then, we go and make a new all time high again and everyone is drawn into the Party like they've got nothing better to do than lose money chasing $200 AAPL.
Actually, this is more or less the idea of what we've already seen manifest in action with Bitcoin (BTC).
Hint: BTC is not going to bounce. Ethereum is going to Flippening instead. And then: Central Bank Digital Currencies.
So what lies ahead over the next few weeks is some monstrous sell offs. With it will come all the chatter about the recession this and interest rates that and inflation and housing crisis and credit crisis oh my!
There's no FOMC this month but I hear that Jackson Hole is August 25 to 27. You can probably expect an intermezzo rate hike that may be a lot heavier than 75 basis points.
Then, probably at the Sept. 20 FOMC, after everything has dumped in an astounding way, the Fed will slash rates back to zero, because "reasons," and then we're off to the races placating society for October midterm political theatre and the setup for January of 2023.
So what should you do? Reduce risk and also don't capitulate. Stop listening to Zerohedge, Bloomberg, and Fintwit. They're all just Fabians leading you to the slaughterhouse.
Buy when there's blood in the streets, a little bit at a time. Don't short the bottom.
