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Recession

📌 How long Will this AltParty last? (crypto & Altcoins)🥂🚀 What is the reason behind the recent growth of crypto market❓❔ The rise of cryptocurrencies following market optimism to reduce/stabilize the trend of increasing interest rates without the risk of recession❓❔❕❗ ✅ BITCOIN has reached above $24 k and Ethereum above $1700 , and the markets are still welcoming the possibility of the arrival of the last steps of the US central bank to suppress inflation, as well as optimistic data indicating a slowing down of the economy (without the risk of entering a recession). Although, in reality, the drop in the GDP of the United States in this quota was more than expected; The gross domestic product was not positive this time either, and recording the second consecutive negative number (although small) for this index, at least from a technical point of view, means that the world's largest economy has now entered a "recession". ✅ It seems that the market's interpretation of this economic contraction was something else; The market now believes that in the face of this bump in the path of economic growth, the Federal Reserve will actually put the brakes on its interest rate hike at its next meeting in September. In fact, the market has already celebrated this auspicious event, and after that, the risk-free indicators of the market all started to rise. From the S&P 500 index to the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones, they all began to rise, and of course, as expected, whenever there is talk of risk-taking, cryptocurrencies have been and are at the forefront of jump and sharp movements. ✅ In fact, although we have entered a "technical recession", many economists - and even Jerome Powell (Federal Reserve Chairman) and Janet Yellen (US Treasury Secretary) have so far refused to use the word recession because other factors For example, the "labor market situation" is considered as a sign of a "strong economy". ✅If we look closely, the optimism came when on Wednesday, investors reacted positively to a 75 basis point increase in the base rate by the US Federal Reserve and Powell's "dovish" signals that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates in the next few months. . The next day, that is, Thursday, following the announcement of the second negative GDP data in a row, Yellen stated that the definition of an economic recession is actually "a broad weakening of the factors of the economy" and "this is not what we are currently witnessing". And of course, it is believed that Yellen was referring to the National Bureau of Economic Research's (NBER) definition of the term recession, which, in addition to GDP, also includes indicators such as employment, personal income, and industrial production in the definition of this term. 👉 It didn't take long that the wave of optimism caused by this misinterpretation quickly spread from the stock market to the crypto market, and in the middle of the rise of cryptocurrencies, even the negative news related to the bankruptcy filing by the Zipmex exchange in Singapore was lost. Voyager Digital, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in a U.S. court earlier this month, also faced an executive order to stop spreading falsehoods about government support. But even this bad news could not stop the crypto party.👌💯 📛 But The question is ;how long does this celebration last? 🤔 We know that the economy is now walking on the edge of inflation-recession. All the tools that the Federal Reserve has are to control the demand side; So the Fed cannot control the inflation caused by the crisis in Ukraine, this institution does not even have control over the inflation caused by the supply chain problems, and this is what we think will cause the world economy to slide into recession sooner or later, and may all this celebration will not be stable (from stocks to crypto). This article is for informational purposes only. It should not be considered Financial or Legal Advice.
SP:SPX
by PRO_SMART_Trader
10
ETH's "Merge" Coming Sep 19th - The Good, The Bad, The UglySo if you've been paying attention to crypto stuff for a while, you probably heard that Ethereum's big "merge" is coming on Sep 19th. They've been talking about it for a while but there's now at least a definite date. (And they're pretty good at making deadlines once they commit to a date, to be fair.) The switch from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake should be an improvement to most things for the most part, but there's a few things people should know: - The coin is set to become a deflationary asset, out-scarcity-tizing (is that a word?) the coin it's trying to beat, Bitcoin. This should, in theory, be good for current ETH/ETH2 holders but even according to the team this is something that'll happen over time, not right away. (I think this argument is a strategic one, personally - more explanations later.) - The merge won't solve ETH's scaling problems - the "sharding" improvements are planned to come later, the earliest mid-2023. The idea was for ETH to "burn" its existing supply in order to keep gas fees down but we don't know if this is going to work in practice. - The merge will effectively put all ETH miners out of a job, and many of them will forced to move over into other chains since mining will no longer be profitable on ETH2 as the "difficulty bomb" sets in. If you've noticed ETC going up a lot recently, keep in mind that that project has already been hacked 3+ times at the protocol level and can't be considered legitimate. (The fact that it somehow stays alive is still bizarre to me tbh.) I've been with ETH since 2014 so I've seen a lot of changes happen within the ecosystem over the years - but the community has definitely changed a lot since the NFT craze of last year - with more money comes more attention, and with that, more noise as well. Since there's not much happening on the chain these days most talks online has become more about beating Bitcoin rather than about product/technical achievements. Mid-term, I think ETH will do well financially since that seems to be its primary focus right now. All those big names that got in earlier this year probably are gonna do whatever it takes to make that happen. It's the development and cultural sides long-term that has me concerned since I feel like the more the BTC and ETH folks argue with each other they more they start to sound alike. I made a big leap from ETH to Tezos this year, after doing a lot of research on my end. Folks probably remember me shilling for Ethereum for a long time so the decision wasn't easy, but I felt it was necessary, at least for the things I'm interested in. - Tezos has been proof-of-stake since the very beginning of its launch and it has had time to refine its processes. Technologically, the Tezos stacks is far superior right now and ETH is going to have trouble keeping up, imo.) - The high gas fees basically made a lot of apps built on top of ETH useless and many devs/artists have already fled the scene. I'm skeptical if they're going to come back, even if they manage to fix the issues on the back end. Loss of trust doesn't come back easy. XTZ saw a big leap in chain activity last month while most other chains were still on the decline. - I think that the decision to not give ETH2 stakers a definite date of when they can withdraw their funds (probably the most annoying thing about the project right now especially since you literally can't do anything with ETH2 tokens atm) is probably unhealthy. This holding pattern allows for the project to manipulate economic outcomes artificially (acting as a quasi-government) at the cost of market legibility - which could make the asset more unpredictable long-term. - ETH still doesn't have on-chain governance and as far as I'm aware, has no plans to. You're basically trusting that the projects on top of it are doing things in good faith. Tezos, on the other hand, has voting and governance mechanisms baked in. (This is probably the biggest divergence between the two projects right now, imo.) - With Tezos I can get reliable staking rewards without having to have it locked up for an indefinite period of time, which seems like a much more reasonable deal to me, honestly. And I can actually use the coins for buying things I got caught up in things too, trust me - but as the world heads into a global recession (possibly a depression), everyone's probably going to have to tighten up what and where their money is going. The most obvious thing right now is interest rates - which proof-of-stake coins are well-positioned to take advantage of since the banks are still dragging their feet in regards to what it's offering to people in savings. Bitcoin is probably screwed, ETH is a (?), Tezos and other high-quality chains will probably do well. That's my hunch, anyway. I don't expect everyone to agree, but this is what my gut is telling me right now.
Long
by RyanTanaka
ETH's "Merge" Coming Sep 19th - The Good, The Bad, The UglySo if you've been paying attention to crypto stuff for a while, you probably heard that Ethereum's big "merge" is coming on Sep 19th. They've been talking about it for a while but there's now at least a definite date. (And they're pretty good at making deadlines once they commit to a date, to be fair.) The switch from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake should be an improvement to most things for the most part, but there's a few things people should know: - The coin is set to become a deflationary asset, out-scarcity-tizing (is that a word?) the coin it's trying to beat, Bitcoin. This should, in theory, be good for current ETH/ETH2 holders but even according to the team this is something that'll happen over time, not right away. (I think this argument is a strategic one, personally - more explanations later.) - The merge won't solve ETH's scaling problems - the "sharding" improvements are planned to come later, the earliest mid-2023. The idea was for ETH to "burn" its existing supply in order to keep gas fees down but we don't know if this is going to work in practice. - The merge will effectively put all ETH miners out of a job, and many of them will forced to move over into other chains since mining will no longer be profitable on ETH2 as the "difficulty bomb" sets in. If you've noticed ETC going up a lot recently, keep in mind that that project has already been hacked 3+ times at the protocol level and can't be considered legitimate. (The fact that it somehow stays alive is still bizarre to me tbh.) I've been with ETH since 2014 so I've seen a lot of changes happen within the ecosystem over the years - but the community has definitely changed a lot since the NFT craze of last year - with more money comes more attention, and with that, more noise as well. Since there's not much happening on the chain these days most talks online has become more about beating Bitcoin rather than about product/technical achievements. Mid-term, I think ETH will do well financially since that seems to be its primary focus right now. All those big names that got in earlier this year probably are gonna do whatever it takes to make that happen. It's the development and cultural sides long-term that has me concerned since I feel like the more the BTC and ETH folks argue with each other they more they start to sound alike. I made a big leap from ETH to Tezos this year, after doing a lot of research on my end. Folks probably remember me shilling for Ethereum for a long time so the decision wasn't easy, but I felt it was necessary, at least for the things I'm interested in. - Tezos has been proof-of-stake since the very beginning of its launch and it has had time to refine its processes. Technologically, the Tezos stacks is far superior right now and ETH is going to have trouble keeping up, imo.) - The high gas fees basically made a lot of apps built on top of ETH useless and many devs/artists have already fled the scene. I'm skeptical if they're going to come back, even if they manage to fix the issues on the back end. Loss of trust doesn't come back easy. XTZ saw a big leap in chain activity last month while most other chains were still on the decline. - I think that the decision to not give ETH2 stakers a definite date of when they can withdraw their funds (probably the most annoying thing about the project right now especially since you literally can't do anything with ETH2 tokens atm) is probably unhealthy. This holding pattern allows for the project to manipulate economic outcomes artificially (acting as a quasi-government) at the cost of market legibility - which could make the asset more unpredictable long-term. - ETH still doesn't have on-chain governance and as far as I'm aware, has no plans to. You're basically trusting that the projects on top of it are doing things in good faith. Tezos, on the other hand, has voting and governance mechanisms baked in. (This is probably the biggest divergence between the two projects right now, imo.) - With Tezos I can get reliable staking rewards without having to have it locked up for an indefinite period of time, which seems like a much more reasonable deal to me, honestly. And I can actually use the coins for buying things I got caught up in things too, trust me - but as the world heads into a global recession (possibly a depression), everyone's probably going to have to tighten up what and where their money is going. The most obvious thing right now is interest rates - which proof-of-stake coins are well-positioned to take advantage of since the banks are still dragging their feet in regards to what it's offering to people in savings. Bitcoin is probably screwed, ETH is a (?), Tezos and other high-quality chains will probably do well. That's my hunch, anyway. I don't expect everyone to agree, but this is what my gut is telling me right now.
Long
by RyanTanaka
not full blown recession... yetWatching the 3 mo and 2 year very closely. I think this is an indicator for a recession and not the 2 and 10's because it shows more that the short term risk is outweighing anything mid term. Everything is is wishy washy with definitions now a days lol but this is going to be the icing on the cake for confirmations. Looking at the dollar strength we had a little pullback buts its ready to resume higher putting more weakness on emerging markets and currencies and also US equities. Looking at UVXY and the VIX i think that the 20 range for the vix is a newer normal in this market environment though UVXY is going really low now and almost oversold on the daily compared to where we are at in this little "recovery" thats been taking place. a lot to digest in the macro perspective and we'll see what the terminal rate will end up being for the FED. exciting times. That's all folks.
TVC:US03MYLong
by moonman777
What the Recession and FOMC Mean for StocksStocks have broken out as we identified yesterday. The fact that stocks and bonds have both caught a bid gives us insight as to how the markets are interpreting the FOMC rate hike and the GDP numbers yesterday. As we all know, GDP numbers came in negative, the second negative reading, which puts us formally in a recession by definition. Furthermore, the Fed only raised rates by 75bps (some sources were predicting 100bps). This suggests that they will likely pivot to a more dovish stance, and be forced to lower rates, or take a more accommodating stance to fight the recession, meaning that stocks are clear to rally. There is still a lot of open interest with puts in the 4000's, but when cash heavy investors start to unwind we could easily punch through. The S&P 500 broke out, clearing 4009 with ease, and hitting 4068, our next target. We broke through that and are making a run for 4122, hovering just below that. If we see more momentum come through then we will likely test 4178 or 4188, we will likely face resistance there, but will have reestablished the value area between 4068 and 4188 from June. If we retrace, watch for support at 4009, a relative high and technical level.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Continuation of Bear Market Rally Summer 2022Hello Hello! So far so good from my previous bear market rally chart. Everything seems to be held in place as the market continues to climb upwards with regard to recession and the recent 75 bps rate hike and on top of it all very controversial earning reports. Shorts and retail continue to be punished for their bear case as the market continues to climb upwards breaking above the 400 level and more. Let's continue this rally till September SPY 440 is my goal end of September, see you then!
AMEX:SPYLong
by TryHarder14
BTC/USDHi all, Is is the bottom in? Most probable yes, at least for a bear market run. Almost 40% up since the bottom. If macro economy doesn't improve and we are going to stagflation as FED is playing with interest rates, BTC and Stock market will not perform so well. If BTC will break down again then will be a major alarm signal that it will be harder and harder to fully recover. Until the halving in 2024 we have planty of time but it will be a harder bear market especially because is first recession for BTC. I believe the technology behind is unique and the value of BTC will perform very well 5-10 years from now for sure. DCA constantly and with a proper risk management. A lot of patience and the portofolio will perform a lot in the following years. Buy the fear sell the greed. What do you think about BTC price?
INDEX:BTCUSD
by cryptoforevery1
SPX 500 2008 AND 2022 🤔📉History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes. Over time we have seen how there are economic recessions every 8 years to 15 years. The US reported 2 negative quarters which is already a technical recession but the FED tries to hide it with yesterday's news (July 27, 2022), there are still key dates to potentially short almost everything including BTC, CRYPTOCURRENCIES, STOCKS and INDICES. The key dates to keep an eye on the market are: 1. August 5 (NFP) - August 10 (Annual Inflation). 2. September 1 (Non-agricultural employment change). 3. September 21 (FED Open Market Committee Economic Projections). The economic downturn is here, so Meta must do more with less - Mark Zuckerberg (Wednesday, July 27 in the "Meta Platforms" erning report)
SP:SPX
by Ed_Ale
2
Fed hints at slowing down after a 75 bps rate hikeEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔽 XAU 🔼 WTI 🔼 Earlier today, the Federal Reserve continued its path of aggressive rate hikes by increasing it by 75 basis points to 2.50%. Meanwhile, Chairman Powell claimed it would be appropriate to slow down the tightening eventually, providing some breathing space for other major currencies, USD/CAD dropped from 1.2895 to 1.2821. Regarding concerns over a recession, the US GDP data for the second quarter will be available tonight, and the market estimated a 0.5% growth - which could avoid meeting the technical definition of a recession. As the dollar retreated, the British Pound became the bigger winner, GBP/USD rose and stabilized at the 1.2170 level, gaining over 130 pips to close at 1.2151, and the EUR/USD also maintained a foothold at the 1.0200 level before closing at 1.0202. Australia’s Retail Sales reading in June missed market projections at 0.2%, but AUD/USD nonetheless reached 0.6993, edging towards 0.700. Gold futures took advantage of a weakened greenback and sluggish bond yields and climbed to $1,719.1, currently trading at $1,743.0 an ounce. US crude oil inventories further went down by 4.523 million barrels, and since Russia reduced gas supplies to Europe, WTI oil futures increased $3 to $98.17 a barrel. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
SPX earnings recession, growth slow down.The fed hiked rates today by 0.75%. They have also moved to meeting by meeting data dependency. Since they've done both in one meeting there is the possibility that if inflation continues higher for a few months they will be unable or unwilling to cut rates to save the economy from the earrings recession likely on the way. In short the supply side situation is still not resolved leading to over supply of certain goods and under supply of others. Oversupply of goods in typical capital overproduction is what breaks the system due to over competition and thus lower prices. utility theory of value applies until extreme highs/lows of supply and demand shows the underlying labor relations. This imbalance will lead to a slow down in growth and thus an earning recession. Q3 & Q4 are thus likely a prolonged period of reduced demand coupled with oversupply. Such conditions will allow the FED to pivot, reduce rates and step up asset purchases late in Q4 or early Q1 as they will be reluctant to cut rates and "save" the economy from low growth while jobs numbers are high and inflation stabilizes in Q3 and Q4 even if that's what is needed it would be politically dangerous until after the election. If you're a bull you want the jobs numbers to decline quickly in a sharp recession allowing the FED to pivot sooner. If you're a bear you want inflation numbers to be sustained and plateau while jobs numbers slowly come down. I for one am bearish on the current overall trend and that is unfortunate since it means real pain ahead for actual people not just numbers on a screen. Always remember that little nugget is conditional to you making money anthropomorphic reader I am creating on the fly. Probably shouting into the ether on this one...which reminds me of a good long trade actually given the merge...hmm.
SP:SPXShort
by GreatScottTheMoon
2
Suncor - Pain to Pleasure and Pleasure to PainThe truth is that the energy sector has been doing really well. WTI Crude appeared to can't stop won't stop, and then Natural Gas appeared to can't stop won't stop. Now, both NG1 and WTI are going to dump as the Federal Reserve points a nuclear bomb at the so-called "inflation," which in reality are high commodities and high stock prices. Shortly it will appear that the Party is over for commodities and stocks, and this will provide a great deal of pain for people who have bought this pullback from $53, not realizing that the knife has yet to cut sufficiently deep. However, natural gas and oil are something that the world cannot do without, for mankind is paralyzed without electricity, and no matter how much of a leftist you want to be and how much of the ESG Kool Aid you've drank, the cold truth is that without coal and natural gas you won't have electricity for your computers, and without oil, you won't have a shipping and transportation network. A fundamental lack of either electricity or transport would threaten the ruling North American Communist Party's stability, and so they will be maintained, but the prices will drive ordinary people out of the market, and you will see social credit and digital identification-based fuel rationing during this time period, if all goes well for the Communist Party. (It won't.) In the process, WTI will set a new high, probably painfully higher than people expect, and in a faster time frame that people expect, but also coming up short of moonboy expectations. I would say that this $350/b as some have predicted is nonsense. I think the number is $180, and then demand destruction will be savagely en route. For Natural Gas, I believe that Henry Hub futures are going to heatseek $18 after a solid clean out, and then the game will quickly wrap itself up. Look on the upside: at least you haven't been paying $40 like Europe and Australia already has for months. All of this means that when everything is scary and prices have been driven deep enough to give you the chance to sell low after buying high, energy stocks will begin a real pump. This pump will serve as a bear trap and will be pretty amusing. Your best bet on Suncor is in the $27 mark with a target above the double top around $62. Frankly, I would say you could see a new all time high over $80, but drawing this on this chart is too hard. Either way with a $27 entry and a $62 target with a stop below $21, you're getting an RR of almost 5. An entry of $34.60 is more "realistic" for many people, so go for that, and just make sure you don't panic sell if terminal velocity continues on. Make sure you sell it _all_ at the peaks and buy your family something nice. Remember: stocks won't buy you rice or gasoline. Cash. Is. King.
TSX:SULong
by LordWrymouth