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Recession

ETH Daily TA Cautiously BearishETHUSD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 25% ETH, 75% Cash. *The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta released a real-time GDP estimate that currently projects -1% GDP growth for Q2 , when the BEA releases their first Q2 GDP estimate on July 28th it will give more clarity but the general consensus is that we are heading for an "official" recession (I have previously stated we are arguably already in a recession). How much of a recession has been priced in is yet to be determined but the NYSE and NASDAQ combined have already lost $7 trillion in market cap in 2022 (data from World Federation of Exchanges ) and it is estimated that more than $11 trillion (in market cap) has left global equity markets ( US represents 41.6% of global equity markets ). Cryptos and equities are once again bearing the brunt of a risk-off investment thesis that is being propagated by fears of a recession. With regards to Ethereum, The Merge hasn't been scheduled yet but some core developers think it will be launched in September .* Price is currently trending down at $1005 as it attempts to defend $1k support; if it is able to defend $1k support it would also likely form a local Double-Bottom which would be bullish, but it's still premature to say at this time. Volume is Moderate (high) and currently on track to favor sellers for a fifth consecutive session if it can close today's session in the red; it has also been ascending for five consecutive sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $1275, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 30 as it approaches a retest of the uptrend line from 01/22/22 at ~28. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 67, it is still technically testing 80 but it risks losing it if it is unable to bounce here; the next support is at 47. MACD remains bullish and is currently forming a soft peak as it trends down slightly at -168, it is still technically testing -197 support. ADX is currently forming a trough at 48 after Price was rejected by the lower trendline of the descending channel from October 2021 at ~$1300 and continues to see selling pressure, this is mildly bearish. If Price is able to bounce here at $1k then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from October 2021 at $1200-$1300 as resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely test $775 support for the first time since breaking above it in January 2021. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1250.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Neutral BearishSPX Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 45% SPX, 55% Cash. * Core PCE Price Index came out today (at 830am not 1230pm like I had incorrectly posted in previous TA's) and was lower than forecasted at 4.7% vs 4.8% and .2% lower than last month's reading (4.9%), this is reflective of the Fed conducting QT + rate hikes and all but confirms that the Fed will raise another 75bps on July 27th. CPI is due to be reported at 830am (EST) on 07/13 and will provide additional guidance to markets regarding how effective the Fed's tightening and hawkishness is and whether they need to be more or less aggressive heading into the end of the year. Aside from a few stocks, everything is down; Gold, USD, energy, crypto, equities and treasuries are all down. Russia's Deputy Security Council Chairman (and former President) Dmitry Medvedev today reiterated that increased Western sanctions against Russia can qualify as international acts of aggression that can justify war . NATO is continuing to expand with the addition of Finland and Sweden and have agreed to modernized Ukraine's military + bolster NATO presence on the Eastern Flank. Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated today that a new Iron Curtain is currently being built and that Russia vows to remove dependence on the EU in all critical sectors . It has become quite apparent that this NWO is here to stay but not quite as clear as to whether or not it will prompt WW3. While all this is going on, China vows to "smash to smithereens" any Taiwanese efforts to gain independence and has reiterated their warning for any collusion with the US . China also continues to aggressively assert ownership of the South China Sea which is home to $3 trillion of trade transit yearly (and shared by Vietnam, Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore) and East China Sea which is home to numerous natural gas fields (and shared by Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan). Though it seems that markets have priced in a continuation of QT and rate hikes, there are numerous bearish catalysts lurking in the background that make the market sentiment lean bearish at the moment.* Price is currently trending down at $3800 after being rejected by the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 (~$3950) as resistance. Volume is currently Low and on track to break a three day streak of seller dominance if it can close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3670, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 43, the next support is at 38. Stochastic is currently crossing over bearish at 65 after being rejected by 76 resistance, the next support is at 48. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up slightly at -67 as it attempts to reestablish support at -76 minor support. ADX is currently trending sideways at 23 as Price begins to fall again, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX starts trending up as Price continues down this would be bearish. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3950 . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest $3706 minor support before potentially going lower to test $3508 minor support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3900.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
US GDP diminished by 1.6% in the first quarter this yearEUR/USD 🔽 GBP/USD 🔽 AUD/USD 🔽 USD/CAD 🔼 XAU ▶️ WTI 🔽 The US GDP was the first to release this week, the -1.6% contraction in the first quarter over the -1.5% forecast indicates a possible recession. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell acknowledges the risks of recession brought by aggressive rate hikes, but maintained controlling inflation would be his primary objective. As a result, recession fears weakened major currencies against greenback, EUR/USD declined to 1.0439 and GBP/USD to 1.2125. As weathervanes for the European economy, Germany’s Retail Sales and Unemployment Change figures will be released tonight. The UK and Canada also have their GDP readings about to be announced, investors anticipated a 0.8% growth for the UK in the first quarter, and Canada’s GDP in April to increase by 0.3%. Meanwhile, the USD/CAD pair closed at 1.2891 with modest gains, and AUD/USD reached 0.6881 with minor oscillations. Other than a brief spike to 1,833, gold futures were less eventful to close at 1,817.5 an ounce. US Gasoline Inventories has mildly surprised the market by increasing its stockpile by over 2.6 million barrels, which eased the oil prices from 113.5 to 109.78 a barrel. More information on Mitrade website.
NASDAQ:XAU
by Mitrade_official
Ready for tomorrow? NKE prediction for the next few days This is not financial and I barely, if at all, know what I am doing. But, please follow if you like my predictions. I thought I would chart NKE because Cramer talked about it the other day and it's fun to watch his inverses. He said Nike was a good buy at the end of last week. I figured with an economy that is in a recession (not technically), inflation out of control, supply issues, and Covid over in China that this would be a good opportunity to predict a severe downtrend. There really isn't much in the chart that needs to be stated. The trend is really bad. It is on a steep downtrend and I am expecting a much more serious dip before the middle of July. The only support I see in the long run is at about $95. If it breaks $95 then I could see an even stronger dip to $65. The last time it was at this level was in 2020. It is already making new lows.
NYSE:NKEShort
by Adventure_Joe
Russell 2000 Futures Next Leg Down -10%Russell 2k $RTY1! broke below the 200 EMA on weekly and failed to regain 1800 as support. As the canary in the coal mine, the Russell 2000 comprises of the 2000 smallest stocks of the Russell 3000 (broad capitalization-weighted stock market index that seeks to be a benchmark of the entire U.S stock market) and provides a solid bellwether for forward facing trends. Next move is a 10% markdown from 1700 to 1550. From there we will likely see a failure to regain 1600. With Q2 earnings coming and early signs of margin compression in the face of rampant inflation ($NKE earnings revealing some weakness), expecting to see 20 EMA crash below the 200 EMA with the 50 EMA following closely behind. On balance volume reflecting a downtrend that really gained momentum in late March / early April with no sign of reversing in the near-term.
CME_MINI:RTY1!Short
by R0MM3LL
$REK Volume & Upside Potential As the economic outlook degrades in the face of persistent and widespread inflation and GDP projection revision for Q1 was worse than expected, real estate will take a hit. Currently seeing record prices while the beginning of rate hikes and slowing sales appears. A short opportunity exists and is currently reflected in a massive volume uptick in anticipation of a significant market correction appears imminent in the Dow Jones Real Estate Index. Near-term ~20% to 25% price target with a substantive longer-term potential quite a bit higher if the macroenvironment doesn't turn around and the economic headwinds don't soften. This is an inverse short play, so market retraction provides impetus to long $REK.
AMEX:REKLong
by R0MM3LL
Using S&P to Identify RecessionInstead of waiting for NBER to officially declare the confirmation of recession, an alternative way to identify is using the U.S. indices quarterly chart, especially the S&P. Typically, economists call a recession when GDP has declined for two consecutive quarters. A committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is responsible for officially declaring when recessions start and end. Why I favour S&P over Dow Jones and Nasdaq? It has 500 companies from the largest to the smallest and from various industries. It is commonly use to benchmark for stock portfolio performance in America, a much wider and broader measurement. Whereas Nasdaq is Tech heavy and Dow Jones with too limited stocks of 30. Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by konhow
ETH - Drooopping, but until where? Hey trader, After PERFECTLY respecting the previous objectif, we are normally starting to drop into the C of the B (see my previous shared idea) You can find below my Elliott Waves objectives to know until where the drop is going to go The correction of orange 2 Main objective of the light blue B Orange wave 3 Orange wave 4 Orange wave 5 . . BTW, I am selling a PDF , regrouping all the knowledge I have found on Elliott Waves , from the greatest analysts books, into a clear, simple and explicative way, Contact me in private, or in comment if you don't have enough reputation point if you are interested . . Don't hesitate to comment and check my other ideas
FTX:ETHUSDShort
by ModTrades
1
SPX may retest 2018Megaphone @3500 or 2009 channel@3kAs I’ve warning several times that the worst is not yet over despite many bear-market rallies, SPX was rejected by the blue dotted midline of the upchannel from 2009 & was unable to fill the downgap near 4k which instantly became a resistance now. BEWARE: lower lows are coming with SPX barely holding a previous low @3820, a FIB 0.382 retracement from pandemic low. The next strong support will be 3500, the FIB 0.50 level, a 27% drop from ATH. 3500 is a confluence of 3 impt FIB levels. Besides the 0.50 that I mentioned, it is also the 1.618 FIB ext of the 3820 abc relief rally & the 0.854 FIB ext of the 4117 Feb 24 invasion low abc relief rally. 3500 is also the projected zone where SPX may retest the green 2018 Megaphone top. WORST CASE SCENARIO: If my green support zone @3400 to 3500 fails, then 3000 to 3200 (yellow zone) will be the maximum pain zone. 3200 is the FIB 0.618 retracement from pandemic low. This yellow zone is also the projected area where SPX may come to retest the red 1995 TL or the blue lower side of 2009 upchannel. This big ABC capitulation phase will end wave IV sometime near 4Q2022 & the last melt-up rally of wave V may end somewhere in the 5100 to 5400 zone near the top of the upchannel around middle of 2023. Not trading advice
TVC:SPXShort
by xtremerider8
3
MOS Daily TA Cautiously BearishMOS Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 10% MOS, 90% Cash. * Bad Vlad and Russian fertilizer producers are the top benefiters of fertilizer prices testing ATHs set during the previous recession in 2008 (yes I just implied that we are currently in a recession, it will become clearer soon with increased layoffs and earnings downturns). Grain, oil and fertilizer trade routes from Russia (and through Ukraine) continue to be disrupted by a mixture of sanctions and war as the global economic order continues to reorganize; Russia continues to find "friendly" trade partners that are willing to pay these higher prices. The rest of the world is now reeling from the effect this is having on gas/diesel prices because the transport industry (which is already seeing a labor shortage) is having to pass these prices on to the producers who pass this on to this distributors who pass this on to consumers -- who are currently experiencing reduced purchasing power and insufficient wage growth. This and China's "Zero Covid Policy" have exacerbated the rise in global growth destruction starting in 2019 (Covid-19 pandemic). Additionally, economies are starting to see contraction and, aside from Japan and Russia, central banks have been increasingly hawkish and committed to reducing global inflation by helping to weaken demand through monetary policy. All that said, we're now starting to see the already strange combo of low unemployment and labor shortages turn into lay-offs. Though unclear as to whether or not this will positively influence the driver workforce, it's hard to see reduced demand lead to more truck drivers unless the freight companies want to pay them more. Should be interestingly sad to see stockpiles of grain, oil and fertilizer combined with disproportionately high prices.* Price is currently testing the descending trendline from 04/18/22 as support at ~$49.50 and is on the verge of testing the 200 MA at ~$48.20 as support for the first time since December 2021. Volume remains Moderate (High) and is currently on track to favor sellers for two consecutive sessions if it closes today in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $59.13, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending down at 34 after being rejected by 40.33 resistance, the next support is at 25.31. Stochastic is currently regressing to a bearish crossover at 16, the next support is max bottom and resistance at 39.11. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -3 with no signs of trough formation; if it loses -2.52 support it will likely test -4.88 minor support. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 26 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely aim to retest 55.79 minor resistance. However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely formally test the 200 MA at ~$48.20 before potentially retesting the uptrend line from March 2020 (~$45) for the first time since January 2022. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $51.52.
NYSE:MOS
by dailytaguy
BTC Daily TA Neutral BullishBTCUSD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 60% BTC, 40% Cash. *As feared earlier this month, 3AC defaulted on a ~$660 million loan from crypto lender Voyager Digital that was collateralized by staking ETH. 3AC was also exposed to Luna/UST which probably triggered this insolvency crisis. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler also stated today that Bitcoin is probably the only crypto he would consider a commodity . Important dates to watch out for: Q1 GDP (3rd Estimate) due 8:30am (EST) 06/29 and Core PCE Price Index due 12:30pm (EST) 06/30.* Price is currently attempting to push higher at $20800 in order to test $24180 minor resistance but risks forming a bear flag before it gets there. Volume remains Low and appears to have broken the ten day session streak of shrinkage without breakout or breakdown (still premature to say); it is on track to favor sellers for a second consecutive session. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $18075, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 34; the next support is at 25.60 and next resistance is at 42.41. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently beginning to form a peak at 93.50 where it may crossover bearish in the "bullish autobahn zone" (when Stochastic coasts at these levels it usually implies that a continuation rally is underway). MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at -2245 with no sign of peak formation as it attempts to confirm -2497 as support. ADX is currently trending sideways at 45 as Price continues to attempt to breakout of the $20k level, this neutral at the moment; in the event ADX begins to trend down as Price goes up, this would be mildly bullish. If Price is able to breakout here then it will likely test $24180 minor resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will have $19417 support as the last defense before potentially testing the uptrend line from April 2017 at ~$15k for the first time since September 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $19417.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPX Daily TA neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 55% SPX, 45% Cash. *Equities, crypto, USD, gold all are getting off to a rough start this session while treasuries and energy started the week off with a boost. Global inflation numbers are continuing to print higher, Russia defaulted on their foreign debt for the first time since 1918 because many developed countries are not accepting the Russian Ruble, NATO is increasing military high-ready support forces for Ukraine to 300k , and 3AC has defaulted on a $670m loan from Voyager Digital . Key dates this week: 3rd Q1 GDP estimate due 830am (EST) on 06/29 and Core PCE Price Index report due at 12:30 (EST) on 06/30 .* Price is currently testing $3938 minor resistance which coincides with the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021. Volume is currently Moderate (low) and on track to break a five day streak of buyers dominance if it can close today's session in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3637, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently trending sideways at 48 as Price is encountering a critical resistance at this level; the next RSI resistance is at 52.68. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 68 (after blowing past 48.08 resistance) as it approaches a test of 76.29 resistance. MACD remains bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently testing -76.22 resistance, if it breaks above this level then the next resistance is at -43.84. ADX is currently trending down at 24 as Price continues pushing up, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to break above $3938 minor resistance and reclaim support at the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 (~$3960), then it will likely retest $4175 resistance. However, if Price is rejected here at this critical resistance, it will likely retest $3706.52 minor support before potentially heading lower. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3800.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
Bitcoin: recession fears are holding recoveryDuring the previous week modest rebound on financial markets was evident; however, higher level of optimism is missing. For some time, inflation fears were driving the market sentiment, while recently fears of recession were the main topic among financial professionals. Coming potential slowdown in economic activity will impact profits, which could be a major trigger for another sell-off in equities. Crypto market could also be affected as a part of the mainstream markets which collected a significant part of excess liquidity during the last two years. Previous two weeks Bitcoin was testing a support line at $20K, but without strength to break this level on the downside. BTC started the previous week with modest price rebound to the upside, but only to the level of $21.5K. During Saturday`s trading session selling orders started to emerge. Relative Strength Index moved from the oversold zone, but only to the level of 34. This indicates that clear reversal is still pending. Moving average of 50 days continues to diverge from MA200 counterpart, indicating that potential cross is still on hold. Markets continue to be driven by strong fundamentals, in which sense, stronger demand might be on hold for some time in the future. In this sense, it could not be expected to make significant and strong moves to the upside. At this moment strong support for BTC is at $20K. Current charts are showing that the next potential target for BTC might be $23K in the coming days. At the same time, there is a high probability for $20K to be tested for one more time.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by XBTFX
SPX - Very bearish move incoming for NEXT weekHey traders, The SPX, and of course the NAS100 and US30 , are all showing that they are in finish an ABC pattern (the green), of the A of the ABC pattern (Blue). Meaning we are entering in the blue B of the ABC and we are looking for those objectives: 1/ 3800 2/ 3770-3740 3/ 3700 You can check bellow my reasoning and how I found those objectives. Extention for the yellow C wave of the green C wave Extention for the Green C wave How to find the blue B How to forecast the blue C . . BTW, I am selling a PDF , regrouping all the knowledge I have found on Elliott Waves , from the greatest analysts books, into a clear, simple and explicative way, Contact me in private, or in comment if you don't have enough reputation point if you are interested . . Don't hesitate to comment and check my other ideas
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by ModTrades
3
BTC Daily TA Cautiously BullishBTCUSD Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 75% BTC, 25% Cash. *Crypto markets are attempting to continue the technical relief rally over the weekend in anticipation for a potentially turbulent upcoming week with the Core PCE inflation report coming out on Thursday (06/30) at 2pm. Goldman Sachs made the announcement that they are raising $2b to buy up distressed assets managed by Celsius in the event that they go bankrupt ; this is bullish for crypto in general because it is a vote of confidence in the future of the asset class made by one of the world's largest investment banks. Still premature to call a bottom but lower inflation readings this week would likely fuel a continuation of the rally in the short term.* Price is currently trending up at $21150 as it looks to break out of consolidation at $20k to test $24180 minor resistance. Volume is now Low and has been shrinking for what is on track to be twelve consecutive sessions if it closes today lower than it did yesterday; this is indicative of an impending breakout or breakdown in the coming sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $17800, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending sideways at 35 after bouncing off of the uptrend line from 01/22/22 at 27; the next resistance is at 42.41 and support at 25.60. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently testing 78 resistance with no sign of peak formation; the next resistance is max top. MACD is currently crossing over bullish at -2497 minor support; if it follows through for a session or two this would be bullish in the short term. ADX is currently forming a soft peak as it trends sideways at 45 while Price is pushing higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to continue up here then it will likely test $24180 minor resistance , which would facilitate a bullish crossover on MACD that may potentially propel price to test $30k. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $19417 support before potentially falling lower to test the uptrend line from April 2017 at ~$15k for the first time since September 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $19417.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
ETH - Last push until the 1270s before the big dropOyy traders, As you can see, ETH respected perfectly the support until now, we will see until where it goes, and if my green 5 wave is respected, you can see on the chart the subcounts, they are playing on beautiful fibs. How to find the white 4 Finding the white 5 Finding the orange 3, which correlates perfectly with the fibs of white 5 Finding the orange 4, and the different objective I look forward to see Finding the orange 5, and its differnt objectives, which aims pretty much arround the 70s, and maybeee 85 for the 261 . . BTW, I am selling a PDF , regrouping all the knowledge I have found on Elliott Waves , from the greatest analysts books, into a clear, simple and explicative way, Contact me in private, or in comment if you don't have enough reputation point if you are interested . . Don't hesitate to comment and check my other ideas
FTX:ETHUSD
by ModTrades
3
$AMZN: Down trend slowing down...There's a possibility of further downside for $AMZN over time, but currently, price action and the drop in commodities suggest that $AMZN is likely to go higher for a while. Until the next FOMC meeting, market participants might bet on a Fed pivot taking place sooner rather than later, given the drop in commodities suggesting inflation might be under control already. I personally think what comes after it is a recession, particularly if the Fed stays in the same hawkish course for longer...For now I'm out of bearish positions and went long using options in a few select names, as well as stock positions in names like $TWTR and $TSLA, etc. Upside here is good, see the yellow boxes for time and price targets in the immediate short term. What comes after this relief rally until mid to late July is to be seen. Will know more when we get there. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by IvanLabrie
1
GOLD Daily TA Cautiously BearishGOLD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 10% Gold, 90% Cash. **H&S WATCH. DEATH CROSS WATCH.** *USD is down a bit while energy, commodities, equities, cryptos are up and gold is relatively flat. The relief rally is primarily benefiting risk on markets as money begins to enter it from risk off markets (like gold and bonds); this is still just a technical relief rally that was precipitated by very oversold daily and weekly conditions, the Core PCE report due next Thursday (06/30) should give a clearer picture of what the Fed will do on 07/27/22 and therefore guide the markets in the near term.* Price is currently completing a H&S pattern and trending down at $1827 as it prepares to formally retest the uptrend line from April 2020 (~$1815) as support for the second time since 06/15/22. The 50 MA is currently trending down at $1860 as it quickly approaches the 200 MA at $1845 where it would technically form a Death Cross. Volume remains Moderate (high) and fairly balanced between buyers and sellers (which is indicative of consolidation before a next move). Parabolic SAR flips bullish at the 50 MA ($1860), this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 45 after bouncing off of 42 support for the third time in a month, the next resistance is at 67.24. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently beginning to form a trough at 43 as it is still technically testing 53.13 support. MACD is currently crossing over bearish at -8 as it hovers above -10.84 support. ADX is currently trending down at 10 (with little sign of trough formation) as Price is trending down as well, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX was to bottom and begin trending up as Price continued down this would be bearish. If Price is able to bounce here and resist a H&S AND Death Cross then it will likely retest the 200 MA at ~$1840 before potentially retesting $1867 minor resistance. However, if Price continues down here, it will likely formally retest the uptrend line from April 2020 at $1815 as support before potentially falling to retest the largest supply/demand zone on the chart at $1783 support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1844.
G
by dailytaguy
$RUT Canary in the Coal MineThe Russell 2k tends to be a solid indicator of broader market movement. While we have realized a correction of ~33%, given the broader macro headwinds... this is not nearly the level expected relative to past major corrections (dot.com & housing market). Given the past major corrections of 47% and 60%, not including the global pandemic shutdown it's apparent theres further markdown market behavior ahead. At the least, expecting a pullback to the 100 EMA is minimum expected while pullback to the 200 EMA with a further wick down from there is not outside of reason. The Fed has only recently begun QT with Central Bank balance sheets letting securities roll off as they mature. With the Fed hyper-focused on inflation with demand side tools at their disposal, the bearish case remains firmly in place right now. In addition to rates, unemployment is part of the Fed's dual mandate. Given the sheer # of available jobs (2 jobs for each unemployed person in the US), the Fed has plenty of room to focus on reigning in inflation to achieve price stability. Will there be bear market rallies? Yes. Will the Fed pivot? Possibly... especially given mid-term elections this fall. Q2 closes next week, earnings will start pouring in... until the Fed changes narrative and there's substantive change, principal preservation should be the priority with a risk-off focus unless one is highly skilled at trading during extreme volatility.
TVC:RUTShort
by R0MM3LL
XAGUSD 4H Possible scenarioI just wished that this would be the bottom, this would be the end, and just buy buy buy but, FED and Treasury are way more popular than Gold n Silver these days, specially Silver, despite higher cost for mining and, despite industrial demand for Silver to build solar panels and energy efficient cars, that's not what the price of Silver reflects It's just down down down as everyday passes and, i'm just wondering what could've possibly gone wrong so i could just sit n watch the central planners just get away with this ? what this world has became and why do we people just keep listening to what central banks say After all those poor people in 2008 who lost almost everything, their homes, their 401k their trust in life, why on earth history has to repeat itself and i'm just wondering when people including me gonna say, wait a minute, why do we have to keep doing this like a sheep ?
OANDA:XAGUSD
by GlassICE