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SPX - Very bearish move incoming for NEXT weekHey traders, The SPX, and of course the NAS100 and US30 , are all showing that they are in finish an ABC pattern (the green), of the A of the ABC pattern (Blue). Meaning we are entering in the blue B of the ABC and we are looking for those objectives: 1/ 3800 2/ 3770-3740 3/ 3700 You can check bellow my reasoning and how I found those objectives. Extention for the yellow C wave of the green C wave Extention for the Green C wave How to find the blue B How to forecast the blue C . . BTW, I am selling a PDF , regrouping all the knowledge I have found on Elliott Waves , from the greatest analysts books, into a clear, simple and explicative way, Contact me in private, or in comment if you don't have enough reputation point if you are interested . . Don't hesitate to comment and check my other ideas
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by ModTrades
3
BTC Daily TA Cautiously BullishBTCUSD Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 75% BTC, 25% Cash. *Crypto markets are attempting to continue the technical relief rally over the weekend in anticipation for a potentially turbulent upcoming week with the Core PCE inflation report coming out on Thursday (06/30) at 2pm. Goldman Sachs made the announcement that they are raising $2b to buy up distressed assets managed by Celsius in the event that they go bankrupt ; this is bullish for crypto in general because it is a vote of confidence in the future of the asset class made by one of the world's largest investment banks. Still premature to call a bottom but lower inflation readings this week would likely fuel a continuation of the rally in the short term.* Price is currently trending up at $21150 as it looks to break out of consolidation at $20k to test $24180 minor resistance. Volume is now Low and has been shrinking for what is on track to be twelve consecutive sessions if it closes today lower than it did yesterday; this is indicative of an impending breakout or breakdown in the coming sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $17800, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending sideways at 35 after bouncing off of the uptrend line from 01/22/22 at 27; the next resistance is at 42.41 and support at 25.60. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently testing 78 resistance with no sign of peak formation; the next resistance is max top. MACD is currently crossing over bullish at -2497 minor support; if it follows through for a session or two this would be bullish in the short term. ADX is currently forming a soft peak as it trends sideways at 45 while Price is pushing higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to continue up here then it will likely test $24180 minor resistance , which would facilitate a bullish crossover on MACD that may potentially propel price to test $30k. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $19417 support before potentially falling lower to test the uptrend line from April 2017 at ~$15k for the first time since September 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $19417.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
ETH - Last push until the 1270s before the big dropOyy traders, As you can see, ETH respected perfectly the support until now, we will see until where it goes, and if my green 5 wave is respected, you can see on the chart the subcounts, they are playing on beautiful fibs. How to find the white 4 Finding the white 5 Finding the orange 3, which correlates perfectly with the fibs of white 5 Finding the orange 4, and the different objective I look forward to see Finding the orange 5, and its differnt objectives, which aims pretty much arround the 70s, and maybeee 85 for the 261 . . BTW, I am selling a PDF , regrouping all the knowledge I have found on Elliott Waves , from the greatest analysts books, into a clear, simple and explicative way, Contact me in private, or in comment if you don't have enough reputation point if you are interested . . Don't hesitate to comment and check my other ideas
FTX:ETHUSD
by ModTrades
3
$AMZN: Down trend slowing down...There's a possibility of further downside for $AMZN over time, but currently, price action and the drop in commodities suggest that $AMZN is likely to go higher for a while. Until the next FOMC meeting, market participants might bet on a Fed pivot taking place sooner rather than later, given the drop in commodities suggesting inflation might be under control already. I personally think what comes after it is a recession, particularly if the Fed stays in the same hawkish course for longer...For now I'm out of bearish positions and went long using options in a few select names, as well as stock positions in names like $TWTR and $TSLA, etc. Upside here is good, see the yellow boxes for time and price targets in the immediate short term. What comes after this relief rally until mid to late July is to be seen. Will know more when we get there. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by IvanLabrie
1
GOLD Daily TA Cautiously BearishGOLD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 10% Gold, 90% Cash. **H&S WATCH. DEATH CROSS WATCH.** *USD is down a bit while energy, commodities, equities, cryptos are up and gold is relatively flat. The relief rally is primarily benefiting risk on markets as money begins to enter it from risk off markets (like gold and bonds); this is still just a technical relief rally that was precipitated by very oversold daily and weekly conditions, the Core PCE report due next Thursday (06/30) should give a clearer picture of what the Fed will do on 07/27/22 and therefore guide the markets in the near term.* Price is currently completing a H&S pattern and trending down at $1827 as it prepares to formally retest the uptrend line from April 2020 (~$1815) as support for the second time since 06/15/22. The 50 MA is currently trending down at $1860 as it quickly approaches the 200 MA at $1845 where it would technically form a Death Cross. Volume remains Moderate (high) and fairly balanced between buyers and sellers (which is indicative of consolidation before a next move). Parabolic SAR flips bullish at the 50 MA ($1860), this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 45 after bouncing off of 42 support for the third time in a month, the next resistance is at 67.24. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently beginning to form a trough at 43 as it is still technically testing 53.13 support. MACD is currently crossing over bearish at -8 as it hovers above -10.84 support. ADX is currently trending down at 10 (with little sign of trough formation) as Price is trending down as well, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX was to bottom and begin trending up as Price continued down this would be bearish. If Price is able to bounce here and resist a H&S AND Death Cross then it will likely retest the 200 MA at ~$1840 before potentially retesting $1867 minor resistance. However, if Price continues down here, it will likely formally retest the uptrend line from April 2020 at $1815 as support before potentially falling to retest the largest supply/demand zone on the chart at $1783 support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1844.
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by dailytaguy
$RUT Canary in the Coal MineThe Russell 2k tends to be a solid indicator of broader market movement. While we have realized a correction of ~33%, given the broader macro headwinds... this is not nearly the level expected relative to past major corrections (dot.com & housing market). Given the past major corrections of 47% and 60%, not including the global pandemic shutdown it's apparent theres further markdown market behavior ahead. At the least, expecting a pullback to the 100 EMA is minimum expected while pullback to the 200 EMA with a further wick down from there is not outside of reason. The Fed has only recently begun QT with Central Bank balance sheets letting securities roll off as they mature. With the Fed hyper-focused on inflation with demand side tools at their disposal, the bearish case remains firmly in place right now. In addition to rates, unemployment is part of the Fed's dual mandate. Given the sheer # of available jobs (2 jobs for each unemployed person in the US), the Fed has plenty of room to focus on reigning in inflation to achieve price stability. Will there be bear market rallies? Yes. Will the Fed pivot? Possibly... especially given mid-term elections this fall. Q2 closes next week, earnings will start pouring in... until the Fed changes narrative and there's substantive change, principal preservation should be the priority with a risk-off focus unless one is highly skilled at trading during extreme volatility.
TVC:RUTShort
by R0MM3LL
XAGUSD 4H Possible scenarioI just wished that this would be the bottom, this would be the end, and just buy buy buy but, FED and Treasury are way more popular than Gold n Silver these days, specially Silver, despite higher cost for mining and, despite industrial demand for Silver to build solar panels and energy efficient cars, that's not what the price of Silver reflects It's just down down down as everyday passes and, i'm just wondering what could've possibly gone wrong so i could just sit n watch the central planners just get away with this ? what this world has became and why do we people just keep listening to what central banks say After all those poor people in 2008 who lost almost everything, their homes, their 401k their trust in life, why on earth history has to repeat itself and i'm just wondering when people including me gonna say, wait a minute, why do we have to keep doing this like a sheep ?
OANDA:XAGUSD
by GlassICE
GOLD Daily TA Cautiously BearishGOLD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 30% GOLD, 70% Cash. *H&S Formation Watch. In anticipation of a critical FOMC statement to be released tomorrow at 2pm (deciding on whether or not to raise FFR by 75-100bp to more aggressively combat inflation), the US dollar and treasuries are once again stealing the bullish spotlight as cryptos and equities remain relatively flat and Gold is taking a tumble.* Price is currently retesting the lower trendline of the ascending channel from April 2020 at ~$1810 after testing it back on 05/13/22 and failing to climb even halfway back up the channel; this is bearish. Additionally, Price has completed a second shoulder formation in the H&S and could see a short term bounce here before completing a potential H&S sell off. Volume remains Moderate (high) and is currently on track to favor sellers in a second consecutive session if it can close today's session in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at ~$1880 (which coincides with the 50 MA); this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is beginning to form a trough at 38 as it fast approaches a test of the uptrend line from April 2013 at ~37; if it breaks below this level, the next support is at 27.07 which hints that Price will have a bit of room to fall in a short amount of time. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 33 as it approaches a test of 25.40 support. MACD is currently crossing over bearish at -9.60 which is just above -10.84 resistance (though it crossed above this level it still has not confirmed it as support). ADX is currently trending down slightly at 13 as Price is beginning to develop downward momentum; if ADX can begin trough formation here as Price continues to fall, this would be bearish. If Price is able to defend support at the lower trendline of the ascending channel from April 2020 at ~$1810, it will likely aim to retest the 50 MA at ~$1840 before either a) potentially moving higher or b) completing a H&S formation bull trap before plummeting lower. However, if Price breaks down here then it will likely formally retest $1783 support for the first time since 01/28/22. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1840.
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by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BullishSPX Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 70% SPX, 30% Cash. *The US Dollar (and treasuries and bonds), energy and commodities take a tumble as equities and crypto get a boost from a lower PMI and a successful Federal Reserve bank Stress Test with hopes that inflation can start to slow down before the Core PCE report due on 06/30/22. All things considered, this is still just a technical relief rally (with just a bit of room to run) until it crosses certain levels in a sustained fashion.* Price is currently trending up at $3795 as it aims to retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3900 as resistance. Volume remains moderate and has favored buyers for four consecutive sessions now, indicating that there is significant support at $3706. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $3938 minor resistance, this is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 41 after testing 38.06 support and bouncing, this reconfirms that the uptrend line from 01/27/22 is still intact; the next resistance is at 52.68. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 37 as it is currently breaking above 18.32 resistance; the next resistance is at 48.08. MACD is currently trending up slightly at -100 as it looks to complete a trough and break above -86.76 to form a bullish crossover; the next resistance (minor) is at -76.22. ADX is currently trending sideways at 27 and forming a soft peak as Price continues to push upward, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX can begin trending down as Price continues up then it would be bullish. If Price is able to continue higher then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3938 minor resistance. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $3706 minor support before potentially heading lower to test $3508 minor support. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3706.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
TLT bottoms in weekly hammer & divergence;but 108 still possibleTLT may have already bottomed out & the US10Y topped out with weekly hammer candles. TLT may find equilibrium at 132, my inflation pivot zone while US10Y may stabilize at 3.6% inflection point retesting its upchannel. TLT is now completing its M-pattern & has just entered my bullish BUY ZONE at 114 to 120. DCA Dollar cost averaging up from this point presents a very good risk-to-reward ratio. MORE DOWNSIDE? TLT may still go down to retest 108 where it bottomed multiple times in the past. Inflation expectations are slowing & the economy is starting to contract with oil & commodities turning down last week with investors pricing in a coming recession. Not trading advice.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by xtremerider8
2
AVAXUSD Daily TA BullishAVAXUSD Daily bullish. Recommended ratio: 95% AVAX, 5% Cash. *A technical relief rally is underway for cryptos and equities as markets seem to have priced in more rate hikes, I know I focus solely on the Federal Reserve in most of my TA but that's because not only do they fund liquidity for many other central banks but they have been instrumental in setting the tone for the rest of the world for the past decade or more. The Fed was the first central bank to aggressively raise rates in response to global inflationary pressures and in doing so may have earned back a bit of the credibility they lost in being largely responsible for this inflation quagmire. Crypto and equity markets seem to think that the Fed has a plan to navigate us to a soft landing, but it is becoming more and more apparent that a hard landing is likely; when that will be priced in to risk-on markets is the question. Whatever the answer to that question is, we are 'technically' getting close to a short term bottom.* Price is currently following that of other altcoins like Kava and Polygon and trending up out of an eleven day consolidation out of the second largest supply/demand zone on the chart. Volume remains Moderate, fairly balanced between buyers and sellers (indicative of consolidation) and has been shrinking for what is on track to be a fourth consecutive session (indicative of an impending breakout/breakdown). Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $13.80, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 39 after bouncing off of the descending trendline from August 2021 (breaking out of a 10 month descending trend), this is very bullish in the short term. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 88 as it aims to resist a bearish crossover on its way to retest max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at -3.66 as it aims to break out above -4.23 resistance after being rejected the first time on 06/10/22. ADX is currently trending down at 40 as Price is pushing higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price continues up then it will likely retest the largest supply/demand zone on the chart at $25 before potentially retesting the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 at ~$35. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 at ~$10. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $15.
BINANCE:AVAXUSD
by dailytaguy
2
Don't fear the capitulationINVESTMENT CONTEXT Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed the key priority of the Fed is bringing down inflation, even while acknowledging that monetary policy can't address critical components like food and energy. Powell also a stated a recession is “certainly possible,” but not in the near term as the U.S. economy remains “in good shape.” Turkey's central bank is expected to hold its benchmark rate steady at 14% on June 23, after it kept interest rates deeply below zero when adjusted for inflation. Norway's Norges Bank is instead set to hike its key rate 25bps to 0.75% Russia is facing three interest payment transfers totaling almost USD 400mln on June 23-24, but more pressing is a Sunday-night deadline on previous missed payments from late May. If the country fails to make those payment - ca. USD 100mln of bond coupons - it will effectively be declared in default Global bank Citi said the probability of a recession is now approaching 50%. The Bank expects 3% growth for the world economy this year and 2.8% in 2023 U.S. President Joe Biden called for a gasoline tax holiday, in an effort to relief households from pump gasoline prices, which briefly surpassed USD 5/gallon BTC trades have entered a dangerous (4) channel with trading range set between 19-21k as volumes fail to return to the blockchain space PROFZERO'S TAKE Value investing has been the key theme across Q1 and most part of Q2 this year, as investors unloaded Growth assets whose bulk of profits are located deep into the future, hence more exposed to higher interest/discount rates. That trend is set to reverse should a recession materialize. In particular, the undisputed champions of the past 150 days, namely Oil & Gas stocks, may steeply retrace as energy demand is threatened by slowing pace of industrial expansion, particularly in China. ProfZero warned back in April that the fat dividends paid this year may dwindle in 2023 as a protracted bear market triggers a recession; consistent with that, ProfZero maintains faith in Value-like Growth stocks, which enjoy state-of the-art balance sheets; top cash generation; and most importantly excel at intangible assets and services - natural price deflators for the economy ProfZero concurs with ProfThree thinking one step ahead - demand for industrial commodities is by definition pre-cyclical, and any slowdown in the near-term should be taken as an early sign of a cooling global economy. Seeing Brent crude tumbling more than 2% just on recession concerns confirms in ProfZero a sense of unease while looking forward on Energy equities; thinking even further though, the feeling of concern permeates the post-recession recovery, whose seeds do not look planted as of yet PROFTHREE'S TAKE One of the commodities to watch this week is iron ore, which has seen a slump to USD 110/ton on June 20 after topping USD 150/ton just two weeks ago. Profs’ eyes are obviously on China (ca. 60% of global steel output), where demand seems to be under threat following the news that steel mills are cutting production in response to weakening real estate sector. ProfThree contends iron ore quotes are finally close to their fundamentally justified levels after a long period of speculation-driven pricing. Yet, a further dramatic correction could still happen since the second half of this year is expected to bring an increase in steel output from China, compensating for the 10% y-o-y output reduction in Q1 due to the Olympics-related emission restrictions. ProfThree also sees infrastructure spending and targeted fiscal as well as monetary stimulus also to prove supportive to supply, thus boosting prices
by ProfZero
SPY either outlier or on perfect course You can see there is a strong difference between the real cyclical bear market and the current correction. Also the primary bull market last 25 years last time from 75' till the 00'. We are now at around half cycle (13 years in). Last cycle SPX did 20x since cycle low the cycle before was around 13x (if data reliable), now we have just done 6x really underperforming. The 52 weeks MA has been the support of the bull market cycle as you can see in the chart. Hence I doubt the current correction will last for much more.
SP:SPXLong
by CFcryptoTA
SPX Weekly TA Neutral BearishSPX Weekly neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 30% SPX, 70% Cash. *Equity and crypto markets are experiencing a technical relief rally after getting decimated by recession fears and tighter more hawkish monetary policy. Fed Chair JPow testified before the Senate Banking Committee earlier today and the main takeaways were that the Fed will remain committed to raising the fed funds rate expeditiously (above 2.5%) and reducing the balance sheet accordingly to bring Core PCE inflation down from 5%-6% to their longer term target of 2%. He made it a point to acknowledge that financial markets are reacting appropriately to the adjustments in monetary policy and that a soft landing isn't entirely out of reach, which begs the question of how much of a hard landing is priced in if a soft landing is improbable but still possible. Dates to watch: PMI report comes out at 945am (EST) tomorrow morning (06/23/22), Core PCE report at 1230pm (EST) on 06/30/22, CPI report at 830am (EST) on 07/13/22 and FOMC Meeting on 07/26/22-07/27/22.* Price is currently testing $3722 support as the bear market sell off intensifies along with recession fears; if it breaks this support it will likely test the 200 MA at $3540 support for the first time since March 2020. Volume is on track to remain Moderate and could break a three session streak of seller dominance with a green close in this week's session. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4546, this margin is bullish. RSI is currently trending up at 34.67 after exhibiting bullish divergence by bouncing from 30; the next resistance is at 37.75. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing 36.55 with no sign of trough formation. MACD remains bearish and is currently forming a new ATL at -167.02 with no sign of trough formation. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 37 as Price attempts to defend $3722 support, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX begins to form a peak as Price continues to push upward, this would be mildly bullish. If Price is able to defend support at $3722 then it will likely test $3950 minor resistance. However, if Price breaks down below $3722, it will likely test the 200 MA as support at $3540 support for the first time since March 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3722.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
XLB materials broke 78, the 2021 support; 70 or 57 may be nextThe worst may not be over. A 8% inflation is very hard to fight even with monetary & fiscal policy because the FED could only control the demand side & not the supply side of inflation. With the FED making it very clear that it wont stop until inflation comes down, we may be seeing aggressive rate hikes leading to layoffs & demand destruction in the near future & in turn causing a decline in manufacturing & materials. XLB just lost the 78 (Fib 0.236) impt support since 2021. The next stop to watch very carefully is the Fib 0.383 pivot zone @70. This may come sometime in late August or early September 2022. Make-or-break zone: if 70 fails, then 64 (Fib 0.50) will offer not much support till 57 which is the pre-pandemic zone. This scenario will end the ABC correction sometime in November or in the last Quarter of 2022. Not trading advice.
AMEX:XLBShort
by xtremerider8
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPX Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 51% SPX, 49% Cash. *Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee today and to no one's surprise reiterated the Fed's 'reaction function' (comprised of quantitative tightening and a higher federal funds rate (FFR)) working like it's supposed to. He mentioned that the market reacted appropriately by pricing in future rate hikes and repeated that the Fed will continue to move expeditiously (go beyond neutral) to bring Core PCE inflation down from ~5% to their target of 2%; according to Powell beyond neutral is beyond 2.5% FFR, the current FFR target rate is 1.5%-1.75%. With direct endorsement from Powell, the crypto and equity markets are correct in thinking FFR will be at or above 3.5% EOY (75bp July to 2.5%, 50-75bp September to 3%-3.25%, 25-50bp October to 3.25%-3.75%, 25-50bp to 3.5%-4.00%); obviously certain events can expedite or delay this but it seems like markets are beginning to price in the reality of a recession. It is important to remember that by the time the economy recognizes that it is in a recession, financial markets will already be pricing in the road to recovery. In other words, the economy is usually last to feel a recession. That said, it's still to premature to call a bottom (Jim Cramer hasn't told us to sell everything yet) but we could perhaps be in store for a short term rally. PMI report will be released tomorrow at 945am (EST) and Core PCE Inflation report will be released 06/30 at 830am (EST).* Price is currently trending sideways at $3759 after closing above $3706.52 minor support for a second consecutive session. Volume remained Moderate and has favored buyers for three consecutive sessions now. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $3983, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending sideways at 38.06 resistance as it attempts to flip it to support. Stochastic remained bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently testing 18.32 resistance. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending sideways at -105 as it continues to form a trough; it would need to break above -81 in order to cross over bullish. ADX is currently trending sideways at 27 as Price continues to decide whether to bounce here at $3706.52 minor support or go down lower, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to continue up from here then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3900 as resistance. However, if Price breaks down below $3706.52 minor support, it will likely retest $3508.14 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3706.52.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
ETHUSD Weekly TA Neutral BearishETHUSD Weekly neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 35% ETH, 65% Cash. *(Short-Term) Bottom Watch. Cryptos are seeing a relief rally after a majority of them have now seen 80%+ drawdowns (ETH is down -82% from November 2021 ATH). A more dovish stance from JPow tomorrow may be bullish but with new home purchases going down and inflation continuing to rage on it's going to be hard to call this the bottom.* Price is currently at a critical juncture in that it's testing both the 200 MA and the uptrend line from June 2020 at ~$1200 (in addition to still technically testing the lower trendline of the descending channel from October 2021). Volume is starting off the week a bit slow and is currently Low after being High in last week's session; it is currently on track to favor sellers for twelve consecutive sessions if it manages to close this week in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $3600, this margin is bullish. RSI is currently flatlining for a second consecutive session at the ATL of 25.88; it's still technically testing the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2020 as support at 29.80. Stochastic is currently flatlining at max bottom for a fifth consecutive session. MACD is currently trending down slightly as it prints a new ATL at -493.99 with no signs of trough formation. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 30 as Price continues to break down, this is bearish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here at the 200 MA + uptrend line from June 2020 ($1200) then it will have to reclaim support of the lower trendline of the descending channel from October 2021 ($1230) in order to test $1407 support-turned-resistance. However, if Price continues to fall here, it will likely formally retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from May 2021 at ~$850 before potentially retesting the uptrend line from January 2017 at ~$300 for the first time since March 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $1230.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by dailytaguy
8
BTCUSD Daily TA Neutral BullishBTC Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 51% BTC, 49% Cash. *Cryptos led stocks this week with a bullish weekend/Juneteenth leading into a bullish day for equities today, they could also just as easily lead them back down with a bearish catalyst this week (Powell testimony, PMI report, higher global inflation numbers, etc.). It's unclear how much further Bitcoin (and cryptos in general) can fall without forcing mass liquidations at already struggling institutions like 3AC, Celsius, Microstrategy and Babel; but to counter this argument, exchanges like FTX have been stepping in to fund liquidations at crypto lenders like Voyager and BlockFi . All that said, Bitcoin has yet to formally retest the uptrend line from April 2017 at ~$15k (last time was September 2020) so it is a scenario to be mindful of in these times of sporadic volatility.* Price is currently trending up at $20900 as it attempts to close above $21335; if this were to happen it would likely continue the rally to retest $24180 minor resistance. Volume remains Moderate and fairly balanced between buyer and seller dominance (indicative of consolidation); it is on track to shrink for a fourth consecutive session which hints at an impending breakout or breakdown. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $23250, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 31 as it attempts to reclaim support at the uptrend line from 01/22/22 at 25.60 support. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 32 as it tests 29.70 resistance. MACD remains bearish and is currently forming a trough at -2915, a break above -2497 support would likely form a bullish crossover. ADX is currently trending up at 43 and is beginning to form a soft peak as Price is seeing some buying pressure here in this relief rally, this is neutral at the moment but can turn bullish if it begins to trend downward as Price continues up. If Price is able to continue up here and close above $21335 (two consecutive times, so today + tomorrow) then it will likely retest $24180 minor resistance for the first time since December 2020. However, if Price breaks down here and falls back below $19417 support, it will likely retest the uptrend line from April 2017 at ~$15k for the first time since September 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $19417.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPX Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 52% SPX, 48% Cash. *Though we still need one more close above $3706 to confirm a short term bullish reversal, key support lines for other indicators are currently holding up and therefore lending a bullish bias to PA in the short term. JPow is scheduled to testify before Congress tomorrow at 9:30am (EST) and everyone will be listening for any hints of slowing down rate hikes or QT to further boost markets. PMI is scheduled to be released at 9:45am (EST) on 06/23 , if it comes in lower than last month's prepare for another drawdown.* Price is currently bouncing off of $3706.52 minor support as a technical relief rally is underway. Volume is Moderate and currently on track to favor buyers for a second consecutive session if it can close today in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4017, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending up at 39 and is currently testing 38.06 resistance after bouncing off of both uptrend lines from 01/27/22 and August 2015 (at 31) indicating that both uptrends are intact in the short term. Stochastic is currently crossing over bullish and is trending up at 10.82 as it prepares to test 18.32 resistance. MACD remains bearish and is currently forming a trough at -105 as it is still technically testing -76.22 minor support; it would need to break above -76.22 minor support to cross over bullish. ADX is currently trending sideways at 27 as Price is either in a correction or reversal, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX begins to trend down as Price continues up then it would be a bit bullish, but if ADX continues up as Price retreats it would be bearish. If Price is able to continue up here then the next likely target is a test of the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3900. However, if Price falls back down below $3706.52 minor support, it will likely retest $3508 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $3706.52.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
Look Out for Bull Trap!Looking at weekly QQQ: In the last recession, after confirming it via Sep 2 EMA crossing, we saw within 2 months of that crossing a very nice bull rally week. But it's a trap! We can see it was a trap by waiting for the week to play out & notice that BBPower was very weak, as shown via yellow circles. The bulls now are fatigued from the bears & want to get over this recession already, but make sure you confirm bull momentum is there before going back in, whether you are getting out of shorting via SQQQ or going long with TQQQ. We recently confirmed this recession from the Jun 6 EMA crossing, so be patient.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by roelds
4