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Recession

USDCAD - Long | Closed Oil LongTaking a risk here with USDCAD to the long side, as it looks like a great risk-reward setup. This trade implies some a bias to the downside in oil. As previous posts will confirm, I have been bullish on oil; however - the recent failed move at $109, represents the second lower-high within a bearish structure. As such, I am comfortable with the expectation that oil needs some time to figure out a direction. That's all for now. May the Lord bless you! -Chief
Long
by ChiefMacro
US STOCKS should fall especially tech stocksUs markets I am a 14-year-old demo trader in England don’t take this as finical advise I am still doing my gcses get a guru or professional to tell you what to. Market preview Going into this trading week stocks should continue to fall during this bear market and talks of a recession increase as the possibility of the fed being able to perform a soft landing because of their aggressive strategy to combat inflation. The phrase ‘melt up’ was used by CNN to show that stocks may soar before the inventible crash. This could occur because of investors believe that the strong us economy will prevail causing stocks to soar in price creating FOMO and a trend reversal is occurring. But because of basic market fundamentals such as high inflation a slowing economy and high energy costs caused by the Ukrainian Russian war will continue to fuel this bear market. Another reason why this bear market is here to stay is because of an inverted yield curve which Is where short term debt pays out more than long term suggests a bear market is here to stay even though it is an argued point that an inverted yield curve means a recession it does still resemble tough time for markets. Over the next two years, stocks have a high chance of having a melt-up. But Goldman Sachs still believes there is a 35 % chance of a recession. Stocks and predictions what I think (DYR) • NVDA (short) • TWTR(long) • AAPL(short) • AMD(short) • TSLA(neutral) Us tech stocks have suffered recently with the Nasdaq dropping 4.19% in the last month with stocks such as NVDA dropping 23.87% in the last month and AAPL dropping 4.95% in the last month suggesting a strong bear market for tech stocks which shows us high growth stocks such as NVDA have been deeply affected because of rising interest rates and investor not willing to risk large amounts during this current market turbulence. Going into this week stocks should continue to drop especially high-growth stocks. The semiconductor producer NVDA will be very interesting to see because it is a high growth stock hitting its all-time highest at 329.85 in November 2021. NVDA gained over 121.1% in 2020 when gaming interest spiked during lockdown which is NVDAs main source of revenue. This tells us that even during bear markets the stock can be resilient so it must bear for another reason that it has lost over 33.85% this YTD. there are many reasons of why the stock could have fallen from monetary policy tightening, the fed aggressive strategy to target inflation, and fears of recession. But I believe it is because of soaring energy prices which I mentioned in my last idea. Energy costs can account for 20% to 30% of semiconductor producer’s energy costs. Energy prices have risen more than 250% since January, according to industry group Oil & Gas UK affecting NVDA’s earnings deeply. TSLA currently is in a very weird position its earnings where though the roof with a 87% rise in revenues which blew the stock up to around the 1070-1080 levels which was last trader around early April. that shows us that the stock has respected the current bear market decreasing 4.9% YTD but has risen 6.48% in the last 3 months so it is a very volatile stock that will be perfect for traders with larger accounts to trade. But I would never open a short on TSLA always seems too dangerous for me its such a good stock any with Elon Musk being able to control the stock just by making tweet always seems bad to me. TSLA does seem to be in a down trend trading below the 200 MA and 50 MA. Between a rock and a hard place, Elon Musk is trying to perform an LBO on TWTR as the management crew has deployed a poison pill to try to combat the unwanted takeover it could mean if Elon's takeover is rejected it could lead for him to sell his 9% stake in the company causing the stock price to fall. this uncertainty for TWTR could lead other investors into selling the stock. TWTRs competition with TikTok gaining in popularity and with cheaper ad prices with better exposure could mean less demand for TWTR ads which is their main source of revenue which could affect their earnings which is in 4 days’ time. even though the stock does have strong price momentum the company’s fundamental aspects aren’t as strong as its competitors. TWTR has a bullish chart pattern and other technical aspects which should lead to a increase in price .Even though the stock has had a recent rally it should still respect the current bear market in the longer term. over the next 5 trading days, I believe TWTR will rise but still fluctuate between the 55-45 price range even though fundamental aspects disagree. To conclude twitter is a very uncertain stock it all depends on if Elon’s takeover is successful. Elon himself said he’s “not sure” if the bid will be taken by the board. But he apparently has a plan b. if worst comes to worst and he sells his 9.2% stake in TWTR the stock will crumble. But he does seem passionate about making Twitter a private company. AAPL should continue to fall as on Wednesday the death cross occurred where the 50-day moving average crosses the 200-day moving average as well as the fears of a recession coming which will cut consumer spending which will cause cuts in AAPLs revenues. Which will dampen AAPLs earnings which is in 4 days which is expected to be worse than last quarter which will cause investors to sell decreasing the share price. Technical aspects are giving strong sell signals. MAs are giving off strong sell signals as well as the MACD giving sell signals To conclude US stocks will continue to fall as fears of a recession is coming with the fed trying to perform a soft landing that has never been done before. An inverted yield curve and rising interest rates and US ten-year bond yields rising all fuel this current bear market where stocks are suffering. Over the next 5 trading days, stocks will continue to fall with a chance of a rally being possible because of people ‘buying the dip’. This is not financial advice don’t be dumb.
AMEX:SPYShort
by harrybergin
Disney's Troubled Waters$DIS has been in a slow decline since March 2021 ATH. Recent political winds have shifted and Florida is rescinding the "Reedy Creek" special purpose district that's been in place since 1967 following partisan policymaking. The most recent declines this week are not indicative of the much broader weakening of consumer sentiment, more a doubling down and reinforcement of the economic headwinds corporations are facing in light of rampant inflation and a Federal Reserve that is no longer able to accomodate loose monetary policies. Given the likelihood of central banks taking dramatic steps in the coming months and major economic indicators screaming correction, it's not surprising to see companies like Disney & Netflix show significant weakness as consumers curtail spending. This appears to be more of a leading indicator of corporate valuations coming down... similar to the declines at the outset of 2020 before the pandemic really took hold of the global economy. Expect $DIS to test the 200 EMA around $91 in the next two months. Further bearish price action is expected to the March 2020 $79 level. Depending on the broader market's direction and significant recession risk, as the Fed begins divesting assets from its balance sheets along with rate hikes not seen in over a decade... Disney may see even further retraction given its reliance on retail consumer spending behaviors. Recent relevant market pullbacks: 1. Dot.com bubble w/ ~65% retracement 2. Housing bubble with a near 60% retracement prior to Federal Reserve quantitative easing and near zero interest rates.
NYSE:DISShort
by R0MM3LL
Great Recession Fractal - This time is different?Greetings everyone. Check out my chart comparison of the period just prior to the stock market meltdown (on bottom) to where we are now here in 2022. Looks awfully similar to me. All kind of voices screaming don't fight the FED this decade plus long bull market. Now with the FED raising interest rates leading to demand destruction with the intent of combating inflation; those same voices believe they are bluffing. Capital from Europe and Japan is flooding into the dollar, not crypto and equities. If this plays out the DJI is likely enough to revisit the flu lows ($18K) of 1st QTR 2020 and BTC heading to $18-$20K on it's macro Wave 4. Cash will be king during this short term deflationary period until they print more stimulus, which I predict will be close to the mid term US elections.
TVC:DJI
by CryptoDude79
$TSLA Earnings Target900 —- I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed. GL and happy trading. IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
12
$SPY Key Levels, Analysis, & Targets $SPY Key Levels, Analysis, & Targets Today with Vix up over 5% (up to 7, but I rolled around 5.5%) I took advantage and rolled my Long puts up to 446, and my short puts up to 430, making my strikes a little wider and setting up to collect more premium when vix goes back up. My long strikes are still ITM (and in the bear gap), and the short strikes are a little further down. And sell target is still 418… --- On the Put side: When VIX goes up, roll long puts down and short puts up to collect premium. When VIX goes down, roll short puts down and long puts up, to strengthen your position. On the Call side: When VIX goes down roll long calls up and short calls down to collect premium. When VIX goes up roll long calls down and short calls up to strengthen your position. —- I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed. GL and happy trading. IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
AMEX:SPYShort
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
3
🔥 NASDAQ Following 2008 Crisis Fractal: Bad Omen?Before we dive deeper into the analysis I want to state clearly what I always state in fractals: no one can predict the future and price patterns/fractals are valid until they aren't, take them with a grain of salt. However, try to keep an open mind. In today's analysis I want to take a quick look at the NASDAQ, which is the main technology index for the US stock markets. I found that the current pattern very closely resembles the fractal from back in 2008, right before the main crash and meltdown of the stock markets. Main differences are the heights of the tops/bottoms in relation to each other, there's some small differences in height here and there, but fractals are never 1-to-1 perfect. Second main difference is the speed at which the pattern plays out. In 2008 the it took the market 213 days to get from step 1 to step 6. In 2022 it took just 90 days. If the market will continue to follow this bearish fractal we can expect another bullish push towards the yellow box on the chart. From this box, the price will reverse sharply and make a new macro lower-low, resulting in a crash. Naturally, this fractal will be invalidated if we either make a new high above 5-6 or if we fall further below 4. The future will tell whether we're going to see more downside in the near future. However, the markets are not signaling much (macro) bullishness at the moment, so I won't rule a crash out in the coming months.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by FieryTrading
7
EuroDollar Futures CurveThe EuroDollar futures market is pricing in rate hikes as seen by the upward slope on the left, but the peak of the curve (contracts which expire in June and September of 2023) suggests that investors believe rates will reach their high and then go down after that and keep going down well into the foreseeable future. This is an ominous sign that the Federal Reserve, and likely central banks all over the world, will be forced to abandon their current monetary policy tightening cycles and go back to near zero or zero rates once again (and likely quantitative easing of an unprecedented magnitude as well. $200B per month in treasuries?). Bottom line, the downward slope in yield marks the approximate time of the next recession, according to the bets that are currently on the table. As always, anything can happen and opinions can change. Buy the dip < Sell the rip
G
by The_Arena_Trader
9
10yr with MOVE What does this show? The Move Index, indicates the volts within the bond market, yield movement is an important factor that everyone should keep in mind, even if you don't trade the asset. Now, this is more of an advance level: Fixed-Income division: As we all know, volts has been up, it's been like 🥢 is what I call this market when it comes to US indices, I use it as hedge just like I use the VIX with ES. We all know we are in a bear market it's very different to what we experience in the pandemic there are major shifts have occurred and will be occurring for the months and years ahead. What does this mean for Bond market? Well, due to inflation pressures globally, dxy heads higher, but most markets I trade is US bonds we have inverted when it comes to yields 2/10yr to negative state... What does this mean? Simply we may have stagflation or recession heading in next 18-24 months. Now sure, that could head earlier into that, inflation figures are at record highs, GDP figures getting questionable and let me tell you something it's hurting us as consumers no matter what country you are in, I'm sure in UK residences you'd had a your energy bills - lovely weren't they (Sarcasm). Take a look at history of cycles, and actually last time china came into help but I don't think they will this time but this cycle is obviously different but a change is yet to come further. This is explained in-depth in the week ahead videos, but most importantly - DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH! It's so important to test various tools out in trading and see what suits you personally best. There is no one set way of trading, we all got various different plans. I have been using the MOVE index with 2/10/30yrs and it's been working out great, just little tip for you guys on how many great metrics there are out there that can help make you make investment decisions. Those groups I am part of know what trades I am part of . Next great move will be coming as we have had Feds minutes, Hawkish but we also have had plenty of Fed speakers and now we could rally even more 50 basis hikes and most of it is priced in as market is forward looking...Now don't forget higher dollar, the yen another currency pair that was great to be looking out on, housing market🎈, credit spreads, think about EM market! Things are going to get even more interesting! Stay tuned Hope this in-depth analysis helps you. Best wishes, Trade Journal
TVC:US10Y
by Trade_Journal
$SPY $SPX - Key Levels, Analysis, & Targets$SPY $SPX Goldman Sachs - Key Levels, Analysis, & Targets OK. Wow… what a wild and fun day (for the bears) I actually did a lot of rolling my positions around. I rolled my 17 June long puts from 453 to 449 (same expiration) for a 1.80 credit (per contract). Then I rolled my 25 April 442 short puts to 11 May 435 for an additional 1.13 credit (per contract) THEN, at the end of the day I really wanted to take advantage of the higher put premiums so I rolled my short puts all the way out to 17 June with my long puts to 433 for an additional 5.11 credit (per contract.) So awesome day. So ultimately I collected a 8.04 credit, while my position itself gained 1.99 (per contract x23) I am expecting a further down move still but honestly I could use a flat day to burn up some of that premium I collected today, BUT since tomorrow is CPI I think we have more down to go before this leg finds a bottom. My plan for tomorrow? I guess we shall see how we open… but what I have planned is to roll my Long puts down and out (hopefully for a credit and it’s possible since I am quite ITM) And then I want to roll my short puts down and out also for a credit. But I might use some of the credit from rolling my longs down to roll my shorts even further depending on how the day goes. I hope I’m making sense. Great day… and I still plan on shutting this position down around 418 - and even with that, we shall see… one day at a time here --- I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed. GL and happy trading. IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
AMEX:SPYShort
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
2
Recession warning on S&P500?The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields inverted for the first time since 2019 . On Thu Mar 31st , the yield curve showed a possible warning signal that a recession could be happen at anytime, but the curve needs to stay inverted for a substantial amount of time before it gives a valid signal. People get excited about the yield curve because, historically it has been a good predictor of the onset of recession. Against a backdrop of searing inflation, Russia’s War in Ukraine and a commodity shock, the relentless flattening of the yield curve and its predictive qualities has market watchers on edge. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees the odds of a U.S. recession as high as 35% in the next year, while Grant Thornton’s Diane Swonk sees the twin blow of Fed tightening and higher oil prices potentially tipping the economy into a recession. The yield curve may serve Economists more than Investors, the key factor in the yield curve inversion is that, while it can often forecast darker days ahead for the economy, it is NOT a sell signal for those who invest in stocks
SP:SPXShort
by ctrl_
2
XAUUSD Ascending tunnel 4h Since 5th of June to today - ascending tunnel formation built out of higher highs and higher lows creating the shape of a tunnel going up. The range to sustain the pattern is 1789 - 1825. A break below 1789 with a 4h close, will allow for further decline down, as a first stage to 1760 hourly support. A break above 1825 with a 4h close, will allow for target of 1920 weekly resistance to reach in the short-medium term. Important levels range at the high 1790's and low 1800's. Triple top between 2011-2013 on the weekly level show around 1800 - relevance to today is high. A break above will be significant for the continuation of the uptrend breaking new highs. On a fundamental level, needless to say, 10 trillion USD printed money together with overall lack of certainty and hysteria continue to push Gold higher. Printed money dropping the US $ value and lack of real investment in equities don't provide much ground for drop of Gold price below important supports.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Exactus
Recession? What does it mean for the Markets? Bitcoin?Recessions are serious. They happen years apart from one another. The last one started in 2008 and the effects are still here in the form of Quantitative Easing by The Fed. The QE stopped in 2014, but then had to restart in 2020 due to Covid 19. QE is used as a last-ditch option because with super low interest rates the tools they normally use don't work. The risk of QE is inflation. Inflation is now here. Inflation in housing costs and food and now fuel are a massive burden on the general population. They reduce leisure and luxury spending as a result. All this is known. We have a perfect storm on the horizon, and the retail market is like a rabbit in the headlights. The thing is, recessions aren't that hard to see coming, the difficult part is making money out of it. Some people have noted that the stock market usually rises as the economic recession starts. This catches out a lot of smart people who start wondering WTF is going on. After all, the signs are there plain to see, why on EARTH are markets still rising? Here's why.... Stocks are driven by profits. Profits are high right now because prices are exploding. Oil companies, power companies, food retailers, landlords etc are all ABSOLUTELY RAKING IT IN. Without getting too political, you have an appalling situation in the West where the current generation of 20-30s are still living at home with the Mum and Dad, unable to afford accommodation as wage inflation is MILES behind. The gig economy is helping to drive this trend. Corporates NEED low wages to make their business models work, and it's a race to the bottom, literally. As a result of this bias for cash to flow out of personal wealth into the hands of corporations, who report bumper profits as a result, markets go up. It all looks wonderful, but company profits are a lagging indicator. When all the plates stop spinning at the same time, then the company profits fall off a cliff and you get your market correction. I would anticipate that there will be one more scare driving SPX lower (3930?) and the USD higher. This will see off the retail bulls, ready for the rally. The rally will last 6 months or so and get to 5000-5500, then we get the drop. I think it will be a large drop, to around 2000 in SPX. There are also some technical reasons for thinking this, which are to do with Forex markets, but I'll leave those out for brevity's sake. In a recession, no one will have money to throw into Bitcoin / crypto, so expect a big drop there too. IF YOU GET THE IDEA ALREADY, FEEL FREE TO STOP READING HERE.... The general population are crippled financially, but it's big business that influences governments, not the people. As a result Western governments, particularly in the US but true also in the UK where I live, are just muddling through, hoping it will be OK. A lot of senators and members of parliament around the western world live live so far from reality that they don't see or perhaps don't believe that real hardship for many is just around the corner. For example, with gasoline prices rising fast, the UK chancellor took 5p per litre off the fuel tax. Gas has gone up 50p a litre in the last few months here, so it's clear that he doesn't get it or just won't do anything about it. Heating costs are set to double in 6 months (this is not a forecast but is already known), and the solution is a £200 loan from the government that you pay back through your bills for years. Average bill set to rise to £2000 per year. Here's a quote: "The energy bill reduction is not a loan. There will be no interest due, no debt attached, and it will not affect your credit rating. It is a grant now with a levy on future bill payers." Who are the future bill payers? Well unless you live in a tent, that's you! My point is simple. The cost of living issue isn't being taken seriously. I have seen the stories about staff walkouts in the US, with minimum wage workers deciding to stop working themselves to the bone for low pay. Also, the efforts to unionise places like Starbucks and Amazon. These are nascent socialist events rather than nationwide movements thus far, but the recession has barely started. I would expect high growth in this area, as people's savings run dry trying to keep afloat in a low-wage high-cost environment. Governments are sleepwalking to disaster. It doesn't matter who is in power in the US or anywhere else, most political parties bow to business interests by default. This is true in most of the developed world. It's a fact of life. ENOUGH POLITICS. #recession #bitcoin #btc
SP:SPXShort
by Paul_Varcoe
22
Will an inversion in US bond yields trigger a recession?Worries of a looming recession intensified late Thursday last week after the yield on the two-year US Treasury bonds hit 2.337% as the yield on 10-year bonds fell to 2.331%, marking an inversion that usually preceded previous periods recessions. It was the first negative spread since 2019. However, Treasury yields flipped again on April 1 and again on April 4, when two-year yield rose to 2.453% against 10-yield that hiked to 2.432%. An inverted bond yield shows signs that financial conditions are tight and could also signal a looming downturn. Under normal circumstances, the yield curve is not inverted since debt with longer maturities typically carry higher interest rates than nearer-term ones. Considering that every recession since 1955 was preceded by an inversion in the yield curve for US bonds, its recent and more frequent occurrence surely does not alleviate concerns in the market, especially when it remains on high alert for the economic implications from Russia's military attacks against Ukraine and the growing inflation in the US. Bond yields as recession markers According to a 2018 report by researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, each recession since 1955 followed the inversion of the US yield curve between 6 and 24 months. The only time the 10-year to two-year Treasury spread provided a false positive to a recession was in the mid-1960s. That instance did not deter economic officials from looking into bond yields when checking for signs of an approaching recession. On Aug. 28, 2019, the yield on two-year bonds briefly surpassed the yield for its 10-year counterpart. This negative turn of the spread predated the two-month recession that started February 2020, which also happened amid the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. Before that, Treasury yields flipped for most of 2006. Nearing the end of the following year, the Great Recession happened and lasted until June 2009, marking the longest recession since World War II. Not the only indicator While bond yield inversion has been a reliable indicator of recessions in the past, it is not the only factor that could tell another period of significant, widespread, and extended economic decline is approaching. More importantly, even if they do predate a recession, an inverted bond yield is not the reason why it happened. The performance of the bond market is only one of many factors that affect the direction of the economy. The recent movement of the yields of both short- and long-term US Treasury bonds could simply be indicators of how the market expects regulators to respond to global events and economic trends. Increasing yields of short-term US government debt reflect expectations of a series of rate hikes by the Fed. Meanwhile, the slower pace of growth in the yields of longer-dated government bonds happen amid concerns that policy tightening may be hurting the economy. Nevertheless, expect market watchers to look closely into bond yields over the next few months. Economic officials will likely do the same because if past recessions taught us anything, it is best to treat these indicators with caution and still have plans in place to ensure that even if a recession does materialize, its impacts to the economy will be lessened as much as possible.
TVC:US10Y
by BlackBull_Markets
4 Scenario of Correction to Recession. 50-80% discount coming.This is a technical chart showing levels and pattern for coming scenarios. Big Risk of Crash with Russia market crash 50% and we have massive debt in the world, around 10x as 2008. GBPUSD and AUDUSD has been on a run of 30% in 2 years time and index in US on a run of 150% gain. Most index stocks have multiplied and we have a inflation of 5% that indicate we need a deflation Scenario to not risk of destroying dollar currency. That shows that we cant keep pumping inflational products like oil, metals and stocks any longer. We hit the big problem in November with a big expire of options. We are at level now when War has pause the crash of the economy and set in on a temporary run and a chock in the system is already in play. Just matter of days to weeks before it will affect the market again. I recommend the same I did in Nov about market crash. Stay in cash and dollar preffered with a euro, gbpusd, aud every overextended gains in 2 years. Market can tumble very fast coming future. I see this month going into negative numbers. With Treasury yield around 2.5% is risk of reversal in market. Good procent for short term hold as risk management and more secure product. I was right about 2020 and nov 2021. the end is very near and very overextended because of the war scenario. Risk for oil going back to 65 in days is very true. production price is around there and we have a scenario for market that shows market weakness if we start to go passed that price in inflationary products. remember oil shows the way. Metals is coming back down. Its just matter of timing. Best Regards Robin Bertlin
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by PivotX
3