Get started

Recession

Real vs. Digital Gold: How Does Crypto Survive the Bear Market?An analysis of the recent dip in crypto (and stocks as a whole), similarities and differences from the 2017 rally (and crash), and how it might affect the trajectory of the crypto ecosystem as a whole. The money leaving the space currently is likely mostly from traditional investor types who probably saw the NFT/crypto craze in the media and got curious, but got spooked by recent news about inflation and increased interest rates by the Federal Reserve. This is why we see a pretty clear pattern groups that correlate performance with mind-share and media presence (traditional stocks, major coins , and altcoins). Gold - real gold, not traditional - on the other hand, is doing really well right now since it is often touted as a hedge against inflation and that seems to have panned out. But we don't see the same pattern emerging with Bitcoin today - a coin that has long argued that it was basically "Gold 2.0". Is the idea that Bitcoin is a hedge over, or is it just beginning? As an aside, I compared CryptoKitties with the more recent Bored Ape Yacht Club project and found that the two projects were very similar - almost identical, in a way. History does repeat itself, it seems.
OTC:AUGGLong
by RyanTanaka
End of Super Cycles for Bitcoin & S&P 500My guess on how the 2 supercycles of bitcoin and S&P 500 will likely end. Masses attention on the stock market and cryptos are fading BUT there is still money to be burned and I would expect a victorious new ATH for both the stock market and the crypto to take place somewhere next year! 1. The whole internet is so aware of shorting the market that is "entering recession" due to rise in interest rates and inflation pressures. While at the same time Robinhood gave access to all its members to short. 2. There is still money sitting on the sidelines waiting for a positive turn ( a new dopamine cycle) so to be invested in the market and crypto ( the final burn/trap). The self-fulling prophecy of Bitcoin to 100k has to come "true" prob not 100 but close to 90k so everybody will be joining the last part of the cycle in a super euphoric state. More money traped for decades to come. Aside from crypto a lot of retail is traped on many SPACS/IPOs, if at any given moment there is a relief rally they will put more in order to break even their losses. 3. Covid is still a thing but is slowly fading away... no way in my perspective to allow a market crash while we are returning to "normal", all that money being printed in case of a market crash will not be "burned/spent", we did not even have a proper X-mas yet :) 4. Our heroes Musk+Bezos+Dr Burry warned us of a market crash ( check my previous post about it) 5. Do you think Fed will take the blame for the market crash? All the above statements are out of my head. This is a more philosophical approach rather than a concrete fundamental and technical one, BUT as everybody expects a market crash soon I like to be on the other side...IMO the market will crash when nobody will be thinking about it!!! when inflation will be down, and when Covid will no longer be in our "head". "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" Look first/Then Leap
SP:SPX
by Philoslother
3
BTC, in a bearish trend until, probably, $31K.BTC has broken key support levels, and is within a clearly visible bearish trend, under the SMA 210, 70, & 14, with an under 50 RSI and a MACD bearish cross. The next relevant support is around $30K. There are still odds that this is a false break out, so active traders and their bots should be prepared for possible long and short positions. There is a strong correlation with equity markets, being the main international stock indices at the border of a correction/recession. Never, since 2008, the RSI levels in weekly and monthly charts has been so low in the main indices. Ahead us, historical weeks of volatility.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by blockmas
S&P500 ProShares UntraPro Short OpportunityS&P 500 has had a tough go in Q1 2022 and looks to continue it's correction given the broader macro-environment and economic headwinds. Upside opportunity if a market correction similar to the black swan event in March of 2020 would be greater than 1,000%... even a smaller correction as the Fed tightens in the short-term has potential to deliver phenomenal gains. Looking at OBV and moving averages, the downside to SPXU is quite manageable relative to the upside. Because this is an inverse relationship to the S&P, it's shorting the S&P but it is LONGING $SPXU.
AMEX:SPXULong
by UnknownUnicorn20630062
ISM Manufacturing Index has peakedThe ISM manufacturing index or purchasing managers' index is considered a key indicator of the state of the U.S. economy. It indicates the level of demand for products by measuring the amount of ordering activity at the nation's factories. The PMI number, which is announced on the first business day of each month, can greatly influence investor and business confidence. An index of more than 50 indicates an expansion in the manufacturing segment of the economy in comparison with the previous month while a reading of 50 indicates no change and a reading below 50 suggests a contraction of the manufacturing sector. The ISM will be something to watch during the next couple of month giving us indications on the health of the economy
MShort
by CarpeMomentum
5
The Great Reset of 2022In the light of a recession with the GDP seeing negative growth in Q1 and a tighter monetary policy from Fed as well as rate hikes from Fed does the high profile growth stocks see a slow down. The main buyer of these high profile growth stocks is NASDAQ where many of these stocks see a bearish market (e.g. Meta Platforms, Zoom and Netflix) as investors go from high profile growth stocks to safer investments such as commodities and real estate in fear of a recession. Also consumer spending is lower than before as consumers does not buy multiple streaming services, delivery services or technology in general but instead safe money and keep e.g. dollar instead of stocks and cryptocurrencies. This negative consumer spending causes these high profile growth stocks to see a slow down in growth as their balance sheets are negative. NASDAQ may see correction towards the green part of the green cloud but after that a more drastic drop off as the price crossed underneath the green cloud. To support this claim does the EMA and the RSI are both showing this correction is likely to happen. In tune with inversion of the yield curve may the NASDAQ see negative movements like it did during the last times this happened in: 2001 and 2007 right before the Dot com bubble and the Great Recession respectively.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by vf_investment
Oil Price and financial crashes This chart shows the correlation between the oil price and the different financial crashes. During the melt up to a financial crash does the price of sky rocket and during the aftermath does the price crash. The oil price of today only matches the oil price of the Russian energy crisis and the Great Recession. Seen in this chart is a slight pull back onto further continuation upwards as the war in Ukraine continues does the oil price continue upwards. The supply chain crisis causes economies into a recession and this is also a reason to believe an increase in oil prices as oil is a stability.
TVC:USOILLong
by vf_investment
Recession will push S&P500 down further - Bearish Stock MarketLooking at historic recession losses of the S&P 500 and given the current market conditions pointing to a recession one has can derive more downward movement for the stock market. Looking at the S&P 500 there is still a lot of room downwards to an overall 20-40% correction down into the recession from the last ATH. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !!
SP:SPXShort
by CarpeMomentum
Heading into Recession - Stock Market to Correct Further DownShiller S&P 500 P/E Ratio is a golden standard to evaluate the stock market Looking at the Shiller S&P 500 P/E Ratio we can clearly see the market was overvalued and is now in the beginning of a correction down. I expect this trend to continue downwards and then have the usual reflexive rebound from oversold conditions and then tripple waterfall down (the final leg down). Instead of dividing by the earnings of one year (see chart above), this ratio divides the price of the S&P 500 index by the average inflation-adjusted earnings of the previous 10 years. The ratio is also known as the Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE Ratio), the Shiller PE Ratio, or the P/E10. What Does the Shiller PE Tell You? The Shiller P/E gives investors a read on whether the stock market—as represented by the S&P 500—is overvalued or undervalued. The higher the Shiller P/E ratio, the more overvalued a market. For context, over more than 100 years, the average and median Shiller P/E ratio has been around 15 or 16, spiking up significantly higher often before market crashes. But the all-time high in the Shiller P/E ratio was December 1999, when the figure reached 44.19. This high coincided with the dot-com driven rally in tech stocks of the late 1990s. Based in part on that record high ratio, Shiller correctly predicted that the dot-com frenzy would turn out to be a bubble. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !!
SP:SPXShort
by CarpeMomentum
EURUSD Outlook for May 2022...My analysis for EURUSD on the monthly timeframe. Includes some simple fundamental perspective but if you want to discuss fundamentals in depth feel free to comment below. Aside from that, there's not much the dollar can do to beat anticipations unless liquidity of the dollar really tightens. In that scenario, the dollar will really strengthen and we could see parity, but I don't think the Fed will tolerate that or even risk the possibility. It's more of a possibility that something breaks in the U.S. economy, which is the case when every recession has happened in the U.S., so it would be sudden. Aside from that the Euro is moving well economically too, maybe a little less enthusiasm towards it than the dollar and more of a risk to it's bullish scenario comes from Russia, energy and slowdown in the EU as a result of sanctions and high prices. Either way, technicals on the lower timeframes to follow...
by UnknownUnicorn15362357