Get started

Recession

How Big is the Tech Bubble?A ratio chart divides the value of the Nasdaq 100 by the value of (S&P 500+Dow 30+Russell 2000). The large spike in the blue line to the left illustrates how the NQ became so overvalued in relation to the S&P, the Dow, and the Russell. If the ratio pulls back, I would say it may find its balance around the lower red line, after retracing the recent parabolic spike like it did in 2000. I think it will keep going higher. I think the high prices of tech stocks are more legitimate this time around. I believe I just made a "this time is different" type of comment lol. Thoughts?
TVC:NDQ
by The_Arena_Trader
4
K-Shaped Recoverymany people still thinks we're in a V-Shape recovery , but it's a K-Shaped recovery in progress right now. which is one of last thing you want to see in a major economy. dumb money goes into many worthless tech companies and spike their market caps at unbeliavable levels. (just like before 2000 dotcom bust) on the otherside industrial sectors are not showing any robust recovery signs. from this perspective this market is totally unstable now and crash is inevitable.
TVC:SPX
by VulcanoRosso
11
This Signal in Bond Yields Will Predict the Next Recession.After one of the most unexpected years, I thought I should take a step back and look at macroeconomics a little bit, at one specific chart that I've been watching. That is the German Government 10-Year Bond Yield (DE10Y). I've been anticipating a signal in that chart that will indicate massive shift in global market trends and will bring us closer to the next imminent recession. That signal is the breaking of the decades-long descending wedge. The momentum is still bearish, and this week the price got rejected at the upper line of the wedge. If this continues downards, then the economy remains in the same state. Central banks are printing currency at an unprecedented rate, and inflation is showing on commodoties and stocks and everything else. Governments are sinking more into debt, and the best place to put your money remains the stock market. That is until this wedge breaks. Because when it does, the bond yields will accelerate upwards. It will become more costly to borrow money. And the economy will slow down again. But this time, it is slowing down while everyone is extremely leveraged and deep in debt. We want to maximize our profit but we do not want to be caught in that state. That is why I pay attention to this chart and the DXY. There are many charts that can indicate the same outcome, but I choose to focus on one only that does the job. Now according to some Fibonacci levels, I predict another touch in October 2021. By then, perhaps the majority of zombie companies will have declared bankruptcy. Is it too soon for that? Will government regulation delay that even further? No idea. Too many factors to watch. So let's keep watching this one key chart.
TVC:DE10Y
by TechNerdOmar
AUD will fall to historic lows of 0.27 This is the boldest chart I have ever created. I personally hope that it doesn't happen. Mainly because if this plays out, life as I know it will be changed forever. A global depression will send the AUD to 0.27 as money flows to the USD the "current" World reserve currency. The so-called "safe haven". This will be devastating for emerging markets. The Australian real estate bubble will pop due to a wave of unemployment sweeping through the country & also the incredible deflationary wave that has started crashing over financial assets. The rest of the globe will be feel similar effects, but the Aussie mortage to income ratio will come back to bite us on the arse. The catalyst for this move will be blamed on the CoronaVirus. However it is just the scape goat to blame the crisis on. Our debt based monetary system has a limited lifespan. Our current system; Fiat currencies backed by only the paper they are printed on, with the USD as the world reserve currency is on its last legs. Global interest rates are at historic all time lows, the new money coming into the system is being created at an exponential rate, money supply is climbing the hockey stick faster than it ever has done before. True global growth started dying off a long time ago. Out of the ashes of the current system the phoenix will rise.
Short
by DylTrig
2
TBonds spread correlation suggests systemic recessionThe current trend of yield curve (10-02) looks very similar to past pre-recession eras. We heard many times that a negative yield curve means recession. But that's not the case : recessions occur with widening spreads after touching ZERO. In the past, it was a signal of systemic recession with high probability. I added a correlation indicator to SPX. We can observe clear cycles. We are currently in positive correlation, spreads are widening and SPX rising. It's the same situation than October 2007 : New ATH, quickly widening spreads above 0.70, positive correlation. Then the correlation became negative : widening spreads and falling indexes. Short sellers should focus on the correlation. As soon as it becomes negative, that's the signal of the next big recession.
TVC:US10YShort
by SebastienYC_FR
3