Get started

Recession

S&P 500 short position/SPX SELL and DROP=SHORTSPX shows signs of serious weakness having on mind technical side of the story. TECHNICAL PART: - DAILY MACD BEARISH -WEEKLY MACD BEARISH -DAILY STOCH RSI BEARISH. -WEEKLY STOCK RSI BEARISH From technical side i don't have doubts that stock market will experience one more crash which will be followed by inflation of USD towards 1,26 and 1,35 instance over EUR. From fundamental side, S&P 500 had three technical years historticaly (continual growth since 2008-nowdays) followed by a big crash on January 30.th when index fell from 3400-2200 index points. THATS 12 YEARS OF CONTINUAL GROWTH APROXIMATELY, since 1 technological year equates to 4-5 calendar years. USD MADE TRIPLE JUMP IN TECHNOLOGICAL SECTION BRINGING TECHNOLOGY to 5 NM. THEREFORE, I DO EXPECT SIMULATIOUS DROP ON NDAQ AND DJI. Now, after this " butterfly pattern" manifests, index of this unsustainable price will bring #SPX index to 2400 points and lower levels including very top of it at 1867 level. GERMAN ECONOMY WILL FOLLOW, I've stated it in the other chart of mine : CLEAR YOUR POSITIONS. Cheers
TVC:SPXShort
by milanjelic
AZO may run up to earningsIn my opinion, AutoZone is overvalued and the company's balance sheet is problematic. (Current liabilities are greater than current assets, giving the stock a negative book value per share.) However, the book value is bad partly because management has opted to buy back shares rather than pay debts, which is good for share holders and for the stock price even if not for the financial health of the company. Also, the odds look good for Autozone to report strong results and to deliver strong guidance on its upcoming earnings date. In August, the price of used cars rose 5.4% on the CPI report, and parts were one of the fastest growing categories on the PPI report. We're headed into a recession economy, where people will buy used cars and fix them rather than buying new. That should be great for parts retailers like Autozone.
NYSE:AZOLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
1
NASDAQ - The second wave has begun!As we can see on the chart we have broken through the upward channel and we are ready for a correction. The correction on theory should have the TP1 target, but I think there is something else that could be going on. I have the following fundamental reasons for thinking that we will see much deeper drop: - The elections are comming in America and this creates a lot of uncertainty, because of the different policies that could get implemented if whoever gets elected. This makes investors worried and they could pull their invesments out till all of this has cleared. - The second wave of the virus has officialy started already in some countries like South Korea and also in Europe we see huge increase in new confirmed cases. There are many theories about a second wave in September which would be even stronger and this could scare investors aswell and pontetially close lead to closing down businesses which would triger even lower bottom. - The stimulus packages are not going to last forever! They actually helped people through unemployment and also gave a little economy boost, but once it is over, people won't spend money and the economy will slow down again. - There are many tenants who can't pay their rent and the landlords won't be able to recieve that rent, which they need to most likely pay for their mortgage, so this will lead to a chain reaction which will again slow down the economy and most likely cause housing crash. - There are many people who can't repay their loans, because they don't have a job or stable income, so there would be a higher default rate on loans. - The small businesses were damaged heavily by the virus and many of them won't recover, so this will hurt the economy and the people. - The gains we saw in the market are unrealistic and right now everyone is just buying in without good fundamentals, so this is bound to fall sharp at one point or another, because the banks have to take out their profits. When this happens and it is most likely happening right now, the market will fall and wipe out as aways the retail investor. My advice is don't short the economy just yet, rather be well diversified and reduce the risk! Make sure you have some money on the sidelines and be ready to buy into the market if we fall. Aways invest for the long-term and just be ready to buy more. Leave your comments bellow, if you like the idea give it a like!
TVC:NDQShort
by donaitelo
3
#SPX - Betting against the market once again Few patterns are forming on the chart 1. we are trading inside a possible Broadening Wedge & about to hit R2 resistance on monthly charts hence looking to enter short position. 2. RSI Divergence - look on the left, see what happened back in 2019 elections are coming up in November so i think market will top out around that time, i am gonna wait for MONTHLY CANDLE CLOSE BEFORE ENTERING or i will average in my entry but trying to get average around 3450 for the short position. currently monthly candle is super strong i want to see a price rejection & bearish candle stick pattern formed to give more confidence with my short position. check the timeline for further updates. there is also a possibility of H&S but i am not sure of it yet, i think we will probably turn this range into an ascending triangle instead if H&S pans out that will mean we are entering in to multiyear recession/Depression!!!!!!! #notfinancialadvisor #DoYourOwnResearch
SP:SPXShort
by Bromadic
10
Evidence for inflation: Changes in DXY/CPI Inflation is erosion of the dollars buying power: ( when consumer prices are changing (rising) faster than the value of the dollar.) One way to quantify this is the ratio between the Dollar (DXY) and CPI (the Consumer Price Index). A decrease in this ratio is consistent with the concept of inflation As of August 9th 2020 two analysis below (A & B) show** the dollars buying power is dropping (the slope of the DXY/CPI ratio is decreasing) (A) Quantitative Analysis: Top Bolinger Band (green): Length is 634 weeks, starting from the 2008 crash low. Bottom Bolinger Band (Orange): Length is 50 weeks (~ one year) The two bands show that every time the DXY/CPI ratio crosses the BBands mid-line (634MA) it coincides with a statistically significant change in the 50 week trend (abs(BB50) >2SD, p<.05,). The current values of BB634 and BB50 suggest that we have entered a period of increasing inflation. (B) Inferring causality: A smaller DXY/CPI ratio can be the result of a) a drop in DXY value (with no change in CPI) b) a price increase (CPI) with no change if DXY value. There's room for both a and b since, first, DXY charts for this period show an irrefutable drop in DXY value. Secondly (and informally) I recently got back from shopping and, bruh....shiz got expensive!! /sarc Notes: ** the analysis are consistent with a rejection of the null hypothesis that there is no change.
TVC:DXY
by gb50k
11
This will end, probably badly. How high does it go?Tech is clearly a bigger part of the real economy (GDP) today compared to 20 years ago, but even with that in mind this market is in the Stratosphere. Will everyone keep buying no matter the price because TINA (There is no alternative) due to artificially low interest rates. Do recessionary conditions in the broad economy no longer matter? Do business fundamentals no longer matter? Will continued stimulus and bailouts render high unemployment moot? Universal Basic Income for the poor and a never-ending equity boom for the rich? The Everything bubble is in full force with equities, commodities, crypto, junk debt, real estate and nearly everything else you can buy/sell going up in value. Cash is trash and punishing holders. Everyone is a trader and turning a quick profit almost no matter what they buy. Bad news is fine as long as it's better than yesterdays' headline. Silver linings on dark clouds seem to be all that is needed to justify a moonshot. The top is usually way higher than most think, but it's up there somewhere and the air is pretty thin. If prices are to come back down to something closer to historic norms what will be the trigger to start the inevitable avalanche? The thought that it has to be something worse than what we've already experienced this year is sobering.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by RobBiddle