Last Hurrah of the Bull, or the Next Leg Up? Day 3S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 06/07
The precarious rally of the last month has been baffling many, with the lack of the breadth in the rally was concentrated in just a handful of big-tech names. With the major news cycles in the rear view mirror, that red hot bull could be losing steam. If the rally does not dissipate this week, then it could be indicative of yet another leg up that could obliterate the shorts.
As we first stated to start this week, if you are a bull, it may be prudent to take some profits off the table; if you are a bear, you may begin looking for entries.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate opening a short on a break below 4275 with a hard stop at 4307.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for WED. 06/07:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4291, 4280, or 4268 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4288, 4277, 4265, or 4250 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 4255. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:16am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #regionalbanks, #debtceiling, #china, #softlanding
Recession
untested area downsidemy sentimental analysis for everything is bearish right now
we seem to be due for a massive downside even beyond the levels i marked off to get some orders back
we are approaching a 10 year cycle that MAY activate the markets algorithim to plummet exactly how it did the previous 20 years
What does a bull market look like?Sir John Templeton said: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.”
Pessimism:
Following the 2008 crisis, the global economy was engulfed in a cloud of pessimism. Investors were gripped by fear and uncertainty as financial institutions crumbled, economies contracted, and unemployment soared. Stock markets experienced significant declines, and investors became cautious, bracing themselves for further turbulence. This initial stage of pessimism laid the foundation for the birth of a new bull market.
Skepticism:
As the dust settled and economies started to stabilize, skepticism took hold. Investors remained cautious, wary of another downturn and skeptical about the sustainability of the recovery. However, as central banks and governments implemented unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus measures QE1,2 & 3, confidence began to slowly seep back into the markets. Gradually, investors started to see signs of improvement, albeit with a sense of skepticism.
Optimism:
The bull market gained momentum as skepticism transformed into optimism. Economic indicators started showing signs of recovery, corporate earnings improved, and investor sentiment shifted towards a more positive outlook. This stage witnessed increased buying activity, as investors sought to capitalize on the upward momentum. As the market continued to rally, optimism became the prevailing sentiment, driving prices higher.
Euphoria:
The final stage of a bull market is characterized by euphoria, a state of extreme excitement and irrational exuberance. During this phase, investors become overly optimistic, disregarding potential risks and buying into the market frenzy. This euphoria is often fueled by widespread media coverage and the fear of missing out (FOMO). In this stage, valuations may become detached from underlying fundamentals, leading to excessive speculation and a heightened risk of a market correction.
Conclusion:
Since the last cycle low established during the 2008 crisis, we have witnessed the birth and evolution of a remarkable bull market. From the depths of pessimism and fear, it grew through skepticism and optimism, ultimately reaching a state of euphoria. It is essential for investors to recognize these stages and exercise caution, especially during the euphoric phase when markets may be prone to excessive speculation and unsustainable valuations. While bull markets provide ample opportunities for wealth creation, it is crucial to remain vigilant and focus on long-term investment strategies that align with underlying fundamentals. By understanding the cyclical nature of bull markets, investors can navigate the ever-changing landscape of financial markets with greater confidence and resilience.
Reference of Nasdaq:
E-mini Nasdaq-100 & Opt
Minimum fluctuation
0.25 index points = $5.00
Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index & Opt
Minimum fluctuation
0.25 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DG has broken its downward trend, showing upward potential.DG recently broke through its downward trend and touched its support line to bounce off upwardly.
DG has an inverse trend to the market due to its budget focused audience. During poor economies DG should rise.
DG sold off quiet a bit as traders became optimistic about the markets conditions in early 2023
Lately new fears of recession are forming making DG a safer bet over tech sector.
DG currently in the low end of its cycle make it good choice for upward momentum
Where is NATTY going next?Huge sell of occurred after breaking it's previous support, turned resistance.
I'd be looking to buy of the resistance @ around 2.050 with the aim of it reaching the broken support.
If it finds resistance there then we might see a H&S pattern emerge which could be severely bloody.
With recession peaking over the corner, this could well play out.
Just my thoughts, not trading advice . Trade at your own risk. NATTY can be expensive .
SPX: Denial on Denial.SPX: Denial on Denial.
There are too much facts going on for anything else to happen than this.
where should I even start.
Highest debt ever above 140% for US. No increased debt ceiling.
Yield curve topped out. Bonds needs to get bought.
Inflation coming down harder and unemployment increasing rapidly.
Core CPI is larger than CPI. harder for households.
More house on the market than ever. Households are not getting sold.
VIX expiration today 17e.
Biggest expiration in QQQ, SPY, IWM, VIX expiration 19e this week.
FED PIVOT is already here. When that happend in history, Recession has always followed.
More outflow in stocks than inflows. Options is the only one saving the market till everything expire and the short bag is to great.
DAX: Recession second wave. Vix exp. risk release.Recession second wave. Vix exp. risk release.
VIX exp 17e.
Options is getting volatile. can be sold today and market will crash before even vix exp.
SQQQ is getting much inflows these days and apple and big tech stocks get heavy shorts these past days into vix exp.
Biggest PUT exp is 19e. We need a lot of downside into that to keep options worth.
Yield curve predicting Recession very soon.TVC:US10Y -US02Y
Looks like we are nearing the recession, it can take from 6 months to 12 months to occur, but for sure.
Recession signals:
1. Unemployment starts to raise.
2. Yield curve is above 0.
3. FEDRATES starts to stay firm and fed starts to cut the rates.(May be consequences)
Only few tech stocks are holding the market up, once they start correcting, we will see drawdown of almost all stocks.
Be prepared to take this golden opportunity to make fortune or atleast protect your assets.
Bear market or recessions are the best time for investment and long term growth as you get base prices and can make money by selling low risk calls.
Hold your bulls and unleash when the time is almost right.
PANW Is this bank stock reversing or a correction?PANW as a stressed back stock has been trending down. However as seen with the regional
banks at large ( KRE as an example ) the bear market had a bullish rally the past couple of
trading days. So, is this a reversal to trade or merely a pullback of the trend down good for
a short entry? On the 15 minute chart price has ascended to outside the Fibonacci bands
(EMA 42 2.618 bands) where mean reversion may soon apply. The fisher transform lines are
approaching the redline above where reversal is statistically likely. On the zero lag MACD,
the lines have crossed and are about to cross the zero line. Overall, the chart suggests to be
that PANW and perhaps the regional banks in general are merely taking a break from the trend
down. I see this as an entry opportunity to join the continuation of the trend and will take
a short position.
Biden had challenge debt ceilingVery first time in history of President of USA had challenged the debt ceiling.
The ceiling is about 31.5 Trillion.. but now. Oxen wants to challenge it.
Overall Government is running out of Money, 2nd Government will Shutdown before month of June & finally they will go into Default and will put us a mild Recession.
Quite obvious Mild Recession will happen this year and will last 2 years which will be 2025.
unemployment will rise of 10% and GDP as well.
This is a big Warning for all US Americans! Please be prepared and save money!
Confirmed: Mild Recession is coming, Government will run out of money and will be put into default because of raising the debt ceiling because congress won’t agree to raise it up.
NAS100 will go lower under 10000 area, US30 will go lower even lower to the ground than we ever seen as also will as SPX500.
Cryptos will finish the retrace correction and will forcefully crash and downturn to get to its real bottom of the markets.
FYI: the bear market is back and taking over ; buyers will go Short and bulls won’t go strong as ever because of what happened from the Feds and the Gov.
The bull market won’t return until around 2024 or before into year of 2025
🟨 RECESSION? - TIGHTER CREDIT CONDITIONSFED CHAIRMAN POWELL'S STATEMENT 🎙️
Chairman Powell remains flexible regarding future rate hikes, emphasizing that decisions will be taken on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Notably, the removal of the word "anticipates" indicates a decrease in urgency for additional rate increases. Furthermore, the absence of the phrase "sufficiently restrictive" suggests that current policy has reached the desired level.
LENDING AND CREDIT CONDITIONS 💳
The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring lending and credit conditions as tighter credit may replace some of the rate hikes that could have been necessary. The current approach can be described as a "hope and pray" policy, where the Fed relies on falling inflation and tighter credit conditions to achieve a sufficiently restrictive stance, while hoping no other issues arise.
POTENTIAL RECESSION ON THE HORIZON? 📉
Tighter credit conditions might lead to a recession. However, it is essential to determine how much of this possibility has already been factored into the market.
Dollar General (DG) a recession stock is Trending UpDG had a swing low in mid-March. While it has retraced well, it is still 15% below the YTD high
On the 2H chart, the retracement uptrend is accompanied by a persistent volume of about 2X
that of March and before. I am supposing that with an early or light recession underway, value
sensitive consumers are delivering DG more revenue from its retail operations and will continue
to do so. The zero-lag MACD is showing a buy signal; I will take a long position and watch
for signs of overextension or loss of directional strength as an exit in due time.
BIGGEST ECONOMIC CONTRACTION OF A LIFETIMEThe comparisons to the beginning of dot com are uncanny.
I compared countless indicators and the current price action is identical to the dot com beginning.
Additionally, the duration of the yield curve inversion is identical and the % of the drop is identical, almost to the decimal.
The current contraction took 5x as long to reach this point as compared with the dot com.
The dot com contraction took 2.3 years to hit bottom from the identified mark.
Scaling the time, this correction could take 10 years (5 x 2) to reach bottom.
We've enjoyed 15 years of a bull market (with some bumps along the road).
Now, we are facing the most inverted yield curve in 40 + years.
Time for the market to pay the piper.
I fear this will be a recession we will share with our children in 20 years
We are only at the start of this.
FAZ Bear Leveraged Financial Economy ETF LongAs the fed raises rates to try to throttled down inflation, the economy and the financial sector
suffer. FAZ got its catalyst today in the federal news. It is a bearish fund that will go up
while the FAS ETF will go down.
On the 2-hour chart, the price can be seen rising to crossover the VWAP anchored a month back.
It is nearly crossing over the POC line of the intermediate-term volume profile.
These are both bullish moves confirmed by a dramatic increase in trading volumes perhaps
4-5X of the moving average volume.
The overall picture is a long trade setup either with stock or strategic but more risky
call options which could 10X.
The Deflationary SpiralAll credit booms brought about by Central Bank-induced artificially low interest rates and loose lending standards end in busts. In the recessionary phase that follows the boom, credit becomes much harder to attain and many over-leveraged businesses end up going bankrupt. The recessionary phase reveals the malinvestments and unsound business decisions that were made during the economic boom. Businesses & Consumers deleverage their balance sheets either through paying down debt or through bankruptcy. As loan demand falls & credit conditions tighten, debt issuance falls, which reduces the supply of money into the economy because the vast majority of currency that enters the economy is loaned into existence. When credit growths slows and begins contracting alongside a falling money supply, inventory piles up and profits & margins fall while consumer spending falls. Businesses are then forced to sell at discounted rates to liquidate inventory in anticipation of weak future demand, which further reduces profits & margins and leads to increased unemployment and weaker levels of consumption. The “Deflationary Spiral” subsides and an economic recovery can take place once balance sheets are back to healthy levels which can support debt accumulation, capital investment recovers, and once large amounts of the “bad” debts taken on during the economic boom have been deleveraged.
US M2 Money Supply is currently down -4.2% YoY using March 2023 data, the largest monetary contraction in the USA since the Great Depression. Using data going back to 1870, every time the money supply contracted by over 1% YoY the stock market had a large correction and the economy fell into a severe & lengthy contraction with unemployment reaching at least 7%. A banking panic always accompanied those contractions as well. Commercial bank deposits are currently down around -5% YoY, the most since the Great Depression. Total commercial bank deposits didn’t even contract during the early 1990s Savings & Loan Crisis. With money supply shrinking and the majority of banks unable to pay competitive rates on deposits, deposits will continue falling and more bank failures will occur. The large amounts of unrealized losses on bank balance sheets represent another impediment to loan growth and banks have continued to raise reserves for multiple quarters in response to rising default rates.
Fed research from the Fed Bank of Saint Louis show bank lending conditions (measured by percentage of banks tightening lending conditions) are comparable to early 2008 & late 2000. Bank lending conditions are a leading indicator for unemployment. The unemployment rate currently is still below 4%, but with the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators index currently at -7.2% and the bond yield curve still inverted, many reliable economic datapoints show that the economy is closer to the beginning of this business cycle downturn and debt deleveraging than the end. Yield curve inversions & Conference Board LEI’s have been some of the best leading indicators for a recession since the 1970s. Since 1968, any Conference Board LEI contraction of more than -2% YoY has never yielded a false positive in regards to a coming recession. The Credit Managers’ Index newly released data for April showed that the index for rejection of new credit applications (within the service sector) was 45.9, its lowest level since March 2009.
The US Consumer is beginning to run dry on savings. The majority of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck and consumer credit growth (which had been expanding rapidly in 2022) has slowed markedly. Total consumer credit growth has fallen about 50% YoY (using the 3 month average of data from December - February). After falling below 3.2% in the summer of 2022, the US savings rate is still low by historic standards, currently 5.1%. Announced job cuts for the month of March were 89.7K, higher than the first 3 months of the 2008 recession. US large corporate bankruptcy filings (Bankruptcies of companies with over $50M in liabilities) from Jan-April totaled 70, seven more than during the same length of time in 2008. Student loan debt payments are set to resume again this summer, which will further reduce consumer spending. US Consumer sentiment levels measured by University of Michigan hit the lowest levels ever (going back to 1952) in the summer of 2022, and they have been fluctuating around 2H 2008 & 1H 2009 levels ever since. Delinquency rates on things like automobiles, credit cards, and commercial real estate loans are soaring. Cox Automotive found 1.89% of auto loans in January were "severely delinquent" and at least 60 days behind payment, the highest rate since the data series began in 2006. In March, the percentage of subprime auto borrowers who were at least 60 days late on their bills was 5.3%, up from a seven-year low of 2.58% in May 2021 and higher than in 2009, the peak of the financial crisis, according to data from Fitch Ratings.
Retail sales are an economic metric that track consumer demand for finished goods. US real retail sales down -2.1% and EU real retail sales are -9.9%. German real retail sales for the month of march just came in at -15.8% YoY! According to Bloomberg, Global PC shipments are down close to 30% YoY & Apple computer shipments are down about 40% YoY. In the past 50 years, US Gross fixed capital formation has only gone negative in the US before and during recessions. It is now negative and there has never been a false positive. Data from the Mortgage bankers association showed a -39% YoY decline in Mortgage purchase applications, a decline to its lowest levels in over 26 years. US Building Permits are down -24% YoY. Housing Starts YoY are down -17% YoY. Existing Home Sales are down -22%. Every national housing downturn in the past 45 years has taken at least 4 years from peak to trough prices, indicating that the current housing downturn is likely to continue for at least 2-3 years.
Every FED Regional bank report on manufacturing (using a 3 month average of the data) is in a contraction. The April Philadelphia FED Manufacturing index came in at -31.3. Since 1969, Every reading under -30 was either in a recession or a few months away from one. April Richmond FED Service Sector Index registered a -23, the same number as in Nov 2008 & Feb 2009 & worse than Jan 2009 which was -20 (August and September 2008 were -10 for reference). US manufacturing production is down -.5% YoY. March 2023 ISM PMI data was also very insightful. USA ISM Manufacturing PMI (March) was 46.3, its lowest level since June 2009 (excl. H1 2020). For reference, in the 08 recession, it wasn’t until October 2008 that the ISM manufacturing PMI fell under 46.3, over 9 months into that recession. USA ISM Manufacturing New Orders (March) was 44.3, its lowest level since March 2009 (excl. January 2023 & H1 2020), USA ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (March) came in at 51.2, its lowest level since Jan. 2010 (excl. H1 2020).
The US Stock market is trading at one of the highest Shiller PE ratios & stock market capitalization to GDP ratios in history. Present day stock market valuations are rivaled only by the Roaring 20s Bubble (1929), The Nifty-Fifty Bubble (late 1960s/early 1970s) & the 1999/2000 Dot-com Bubble. All 3 of those examples were followed by the most negative 10 year real returns in USA stock market history going back to 1913. Over 40% of businesses in the Russell2000 are unprofitable and over 1/5 of the S&P500 are zombie companies. Clearly, the stock markets as of April 2023 are still in bubble levels of overvaluation.
Looking at the data in aggregate, I believe that a recession is currently occurring. Assuming earnings fall by about 30% peak to trough, using a conservative average from the past 4 US recessions, I assume S&P annualized earnings will fall to around 155. Using a conservative valuation multiple of 14, that gives a target price of about 2,200 for the S&P500 that is likely to be hit in Q4 2023 or 2024.
Thank you for reading,
Alexander Charles Lambert
DXY: The Nail in the Coffin? Quarterly ChartThe US Dollar is holding 1997-2000 prior resistance, as support. We have a breakout of a downward slope, retest of the trend line, and now retest of the most recent double top (2017, 2020). We all are watching Gold test the 2000 area, but what I don't see often is a technical pattern analysis of the US Dollar. As the dollar rapidly deflates, we will transition into a Stage 1 market cycle, Bond prices will have to increase to offset deflation, while interest rates remain high. I am not a fundamental trader, but this exact same TA setup is the reason I took AMC from the breakout to $50. Patterns repeat themselves, that's why they are called patterns. They may only work because people think they work, but you can't bet against them. DXY holding 100 area through next FOMC meeting will be a sign to me that recession declaration is imminent.
Market AnalysisUnemployment claims are lower than expected (down)
GDP is only 1.1% (the dollar will rise slightly)
Personal expenditures are fronted by 1%, soaring to 3.7% (bad)
Core PCE increased from 4.4% to 4.9% (bearish)
Analysis:
The U.S. economy is worse than expected and has clearly entered a recession. However, inflation and personal consumption are set to soar, proving that QT isn't enough. After this data, big possibility for FED to raise more interest rate. The stock market and crypto will at least dump for another 10% or more.
Personal market analysis, for reference only
Inverted Yield Curve Starts in 2023 - Explained When the yield of the 3-month bond is higher than the 30-year bond yield, this is known as an inverted yield curve. It is a rare and unusual occurrence and we are seeing this today. This signals a potential economic recession in the future.
An inverted yield curve suggests that investors have a pessimistic outlook for the future of the economy. They are willing to accept lower yields on long-term bonds because they anticipate a slowdown in economic growth. In contrast, they demand higher yields on short-term bonds because they expect the central bank to raise interest rates in response to inflationary pressures.
An inverted yield curve can lead to a decrease in borrowing and lending activity, as it can make it more expensive for businesses and consumers to borrow money. This can result in a reduction in economic growth and can eventually lead to a recession.
Some reference for traders:
Micro Treasury Yields & Its Minimum Fluctuation
Micro 2-Year Yield Futures
Ticker: 2YY
0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Micro 5-Year Yield Futures
Ticker: 5YY
0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Micro 10-Year Yield Futures
Ticker: 10Y
0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Micro 30-Year Yield Futures
Ticker: 30Y
0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
True bottom for EthereumSame for bitcoin .. if you still have money in profits
GET OUT!
Do not hold it ; secure your profits that you had made and buy again until we reach the true bottom.
The Feds has confirmed that the mild recession is coming in the end of 2023; do your thing and be prepared.
The markets will keep crashing until the true bottom is in; it will take 2 full years for the markets to recover.
Now for Ethereum the resistance is strong and felt the impact of the economy and the news from the Feds, 2000-2200 is the strong resistance of the zone and now the bear market is back from the long water break and take over.
WHEN TO BUY: buy Ethereum until it hits 400-500 area that price is the real bottom for Ethereum.. once the bottom is in go all in.. and the target price you all know HKEX:10 ,000 is the target in 2024 until 2025.
Trade safe y’all and please survive the recession y’all know what to do