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Recessions

Federal Reserve is Behind the Curve, Recession is 100% CONFIRMEDHello everyone, The federal reserve has kept interest rates at near zero and printed the MOST money in US history back in 2020 and this has caused one of the worst inflation in 40 years. Jerome Powell decided to fight inflation by giving us the fastest rate raising campaign in history. He has kept rates too high for too long and we are now guaranteed a recession. Jerome Powell will find himself in a position to cut rates very fast due to the cracks in the job market. It is already too late we will be witnessing a huge spike in unemployment. Who knows how high this can go, back in 1929 unemployment hit 24.9%.
FRED:UNRATE
by justaturboman44
A Possible Recession Coming: What to Invest in During DifficultChart Analysis: The chart depicts the relationship between the M2 money supply, US Consumer Price Index (CPI), labor market trends, and historical recessions. Key observations include: Recessions: -Historical recessions are marked and correlated with significant economic downturns. -Each recession coincides with substantial drops in the labor market and fluctuations in the M2 money supply and CPI. M2 Money Supply and US CPI: -The M2 money supply (blue line) shows a steady increase over the years, reflecting ongoing monetary expansion. -The US CPI (orange line) follows a similar upward trend, indicating rising consumer prices and inflation. Current Economic Conditions: -The chart suggests a potential recession on the horizon, marked by the recent economic indicators and historical patterns. Bitcoin's Role in the Current Economic System: This is the reason the goverments wants to stop Bitcoin. People want out of their slave system where they create abundance for themselves with money printing while our labor value is always decreasing. Recession Expectations and Market Opportunities: Be open to a recession in the coming winter. The CME is having a meeting today where there is a 5% chance for a 0.25 rate cut and a 95% chance for a cut in September. Historically, there is a two-month window where the market booms and then rolls over into a recession after rate cuts. This supports the idea of a left-translated cycle and a longer multi-year cycle. For more information, see "The Fourth Turning." Investment Opportunities_ With this information, there can be good opportunities to get in early on investments in the precious metal markets like gold and silver, and also mining stocks. Production materials like copper, oil, and steel can be great shorting opportunities in the coming weeks and months. Conclusion: Understanding these economic indicators and historical patterns provides valuable insights for making informed investment decisions. While the future economic landscape looks challenging, strategic investments in precious metals and shorting opportunities in production materials could offer significant returns.
ECONOMICS:USM2Short
by martinxi5u4
2
Macro Monday 14~Unemployment Rate Rise Macro Monday 14 US Employment Rate Pre-Recession Indications The Unemployment Rate tells us how many people in the United States are currently without a job and actively looking for one. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates and reports the unemployment rate. In basic terms it consists of the following; Survey: The Bureau of Labor Statistics conducts a regular survey of a sample of households across the country. They ask people whether they are working or actively trying to find work. Calculation: Based on the survey results, the Bureau calculates the percentage of people who are unemployed (those without jobs but actively seeking employment) compared to the total number of people in the labor force (those who are either employed or actively looking for work). Reporting: This percentage is then reported as the unemployment rate. For example, if 5 out of every 100 people in the labor force are unemployed, the unemployment rate would be 5%. At present the Unemployment rate is 3.8%. In simple terms, the unemployment rate is a way to gauge how many people are struggling to find jobs in the United States. In this respect it is an important economic indicator that helps us and policy makers understand the health of the job market. The Chart In today’s chart I will be analysing the history of the Unemployment Rate and how it has behaved both before and during recessions. The aim of the analysis is to help us understand the distinct pre-recession patterns and levels that occur prior to recession so that we can prepare ourselves should these levels be breached or these patterns play out again. These historic levels will be placed on the chart for you to monitor from today forward. Chart Outline: 1. Recessions are the red zones (also numbered & labelled 1 – 12 and on the chart itself) 2. Increases in the Unemployment Rate prior to recession are in blue. - These blue zones start at the lowest level the Unemployment Rate established prior to the recession periods in red. - Basis points (bps) have been used to show the change in the value within the blue zones (pre-recession zones) e.g. recession No. 2 The Great Financial Crisis had a pre-recession Unemployment Rate increase from 4.39% - 5.00% which is a 0.61% increase in the unemployment rate or a 61 bps increase. - Peaks: I have also included peak bps increases within these pre-recession periods (within the blue zones). These are times that the Unemployment Rate peaked higher but reduced thereafter but a recession still followed. Chart Findings: 1. In 10 out of 12 of the recessions outlined the Unemployment Rate increased in advance of the on-coming recession (in the blue zones) demonstrating that initial early increases to the Unemployment Rate can act as an early recession warning signal: - An average increase of 33.5 bps over an average timeframe of 7.3 months is observed pre-recession. - The maximum increase in the pre-recession blue zones was 71bps over 8 months. This max increase was observed prior to 1980 Volcker/Energy Recession no. 6 on the chart (this increase was from 5.59% to 6.30% in the Unemployment Rate itself – a 71bps increase). This recession was induced by Fed Chair Paul Volcker’s sudden increase to interest rates much like those that have been imposed by Jerome Powell over recent months (Volcker was appointed in Aug 1979 and got to work quick). - The max timeframe for a rising Unemployment Rate prior to recession was 16 months. This was prior to the The Gulf War Recession, no. 4 on the chart (which was considered a short 8 month softer recession). This max 16 month pre-recession timeframe has been marked on the chart to May 2024 in correspondence with today’s pre-recession blue zone timeline – so we know where a max timeline would put us (not a prediction). - 2 out of 12 times the Unemployment Rate did not increase prior to recession however it did not decrease either, it based at 0 bps or no change (No.1 COVID-19 Crash and No. 5 The Iran/Energy Crisis Recession). Whilst the Unemployment Rate did not increase, they did temporarily peak higher within the blue zones by 10 bps (No. 1) and 31 bps (No.5) demonstrating the importance of peaks and bases formed prior to an Unemployment rate ramp up and recession. I found the peak increases interesting to include because they illustrate that the Unemployment Rate can oscillate peaking higher temporarily only to form a higher low or return to its starting point, but a peak, if significant enough could be a telling indicator. The most notable peaks are the following; 62 bps (no. 12), 61 bps (no. 9), 60 bps (no. 10), 30 bps (No. 8), 31bps (No. 5) and only 10 bps (No. 2) for the COVID Crash. All of these peaks reduced thereafter within their pre-recession blue zones but a recession still ensued. A sudden increase in the unemployment rate should be taken seriously. I will include a subsequent data table chart that outlines these peaks and all other data utilized for Chart 1’s illustration and findings. We are currently in dangerous territory as we have passed the average timeframe of 7.3 months of increases to the Unemployment Rate and the Unemployment Rate increased by 40 bps over that period which is higher than the historical average of 33.5bps. We have surpassed both averages. The max historical pre-recession increase is 71 bps (No. 6) so this is a level to watch going forward. This translates to a level of 4.11% in the Unemployment Rate (marked on the chart). Similar to today’s Unemployment Rate level, there are two very similar instances in the past where the Unemployment Rate increased from c.3.4% to c.3.8% prior to recession (See RED ARROWS on chart). These both took 7 – 10 months to play out with a 10 – 42 bps increase to be established before recession hit. This is very similar to today’s levels which are at 7 months and 40bps of an increase with the 8th month being released this Friday 6th October 2023 which should be very revealing. We are now well armed with an historical chart as a reference point for any upcoming Unemployment Rate figures released in coming months. We know we have surpassed the averages in terms of timeframe (7 months) and the 40 bps increase is above the avg. 33.5 bps. We can refer back to this chart using Trading View, press play and see if we are breaching the max pre-recession level of 4.11% (the 71bps move) or other extreme pre-recession levels such as the dot.com and GFC Unemployment Rates (both marked on the chart). And if you don’t frequent the chart on trading view I will update you here regardless. Lets see what Friday brings…. PUKA
FRED:UNRATE
by PukaCharts
1
Total Stock Market reveals recession trend lineThe total stock market tracked by AMEX:VTI looks fairly bullish in that we are now trending along post-Great Recession (GR) lows for the upper non-recessionary channel defined since the GR. So if no recession is ahead of us (a very BIG if), things ought to be looking up. The two most recent recessions each hit the same lowest bound in this two-tiered channel defined since the GR, suggesting that this lowest trend line may mark reliable 'recession resistance' such that it might mark the low point for the next recession. I'm surprised that there is this fairly obvious recession-tested lower bound that I've never seen anyone point out before, so I wanted to share this observation.
AMEX:VTILong
by iGoddard
1
Reviewing Trends and their behavior during RecessionsWhile retiring after some decent gains during this whipsaw day, I thought I'd go over utilizing the Weekly trend indicator, and how that ended up during a recession vs the occasional downtrend signal. To recap the video if you don't feel like listening, the ONLY time a Weekly Downtrend Signal has occurred, and that index prices were lower when the Weekly Uptrend Signal occurred, is during the recessions. Even during the beginning of Covid, the Weekly Downtrend Signal hit at 2983, but the rapid rise back up and the calculation of trends would have signaled the Weekly Uptrend at 3276. An overall boost in the economy from here for the rest of the year would make this nothing more than a downturn. That doesn't really add up when looking at the overall state of the economy, at least not from my perspective. Many factors are worse than the last recession (Literally called the "Great Recession" because of how rough it was), and the next few months in terms of inflation falling without unemployment rising above 5% could be real factors to watch.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
😴 'RECESSIONS DON'T HAPPEN WHEN EVERYONE IS EXPECTING ONE TO.'I've seen this comment thrown around a lot on FinTwit (financial markets Twitter) recently... Most people would know that things go up and down, even Joe Public, right? If they didn't, we'd just have an infinite up only business cycle and everyone would be exorbitantly wealthy - absolutely no relativity theory of give and take at all. I completely disagree with this notion that recessions don't happen if people are expecting them. For one, if people are expecting it to happen, people turn defensive. Secondly, Trichet (the ECB's President) in 2009, when referring to the underpricing of risk said, 'Warnings by the authorities about the possibility of an abrupt correction in financial markets date back to 2006.' So clearly there were people expecting a downturn before the Great Financial Crisis happened. Duh. One of his solutions to preventing another crisis was, 'Finally, a third factor that, in my view, needs to be addressed is the excessive pro-cyclicality of the financial system in its entirety, i.e., the tendency of the financial system to accumulate too much risk and leverage in good times, and to shed risks hastily in a downturn.' I mean, consider the last two years. In Q1 2021, retail piled more into stocks than the previous TWELVE YEARS COMBINED, with margin debt hitting records through 2020 and 2021... When people in the financial sphere make these bold claims of 'priced in', especially when referring to recessions, we must remember that recessions are painful to the REAL ECONOMY, not just asset prices that we gamble in day in day out. They hurt, and we are a very small sample size who are hyper focused on markets and economic data - we are not representative of the real economy, so what might seem priced in for us isn't necessarily by the 95% who experience recessions by living through them and not forecasting (or not) them.
Editors' picks
TVC:US10Y
by FinkPro
46
Time for PAXG?As a crypto asset backed by real gold, is it time to put some money in PAXG in case of the upcoming big recession ? Well to answer that, YES and NO... 1. We don't know when will the recession comes 2. We don't know whether it will come or not (LOL) But still, it's better to be safe rather to be sorry!!!! My entry price point would probably be in the fibonacci retracement level (fib box)... As I still believe the bull or this cycle economic hype isn't over yet, I am waiting for a better entry point before putting my money on gold or crypto backed by gold!!! Yes it can certainly goes way more down before we found a bottom in case the economic bull is too strong... but interesting thing to keep in mind is that, we have a strong red line that has ben perfectly tested 3 times... I have put a green marker on it!!! So with this in mind, scaling in into gold backed asset would probably a good idea as to minimize your risk... Still, this is just my speculation, and gold could also soar high from this point and we don't see any retracement especially as many investment company or retail investor are now looking at gold... #NotFinancialAdvise #PersonalView
by ZombieGod11
UNDERSTANDING THE PERSPECTIVEs OF ECONOMIC COLLAPSE Its very important to UNDERSTANDING THE PERSPECTIVE (PREVIOUS) ECONOMIC COLLAPSE and understand how we can work together to study things and help each other! The first two "2" modern recessions (studied in this graph from 2000/2003 and 2007/2009) where not felt equally around the world. Most of the world's developed economies, fell into a severe, sustained recession and developed economies suffered far less impact. (for the worlds stock markets) it is difficult to estimate the exact loss. The 2020 crash has lost several trillions of dollars of world wealth in the matter of a few short months. The MODERN AMERICAN economy is estimated to loose at least 2 trillion dollars (in government public financial aid that maybe should not be used to inflate the value of the local and currency globally). In the U.S. about 54.5% of all peoples wealth is in the stock market which is largely "controlled" by the NYSE and NASDAQ "club?" (which both have very low quality websites and provide very little "free" real time data or quotes unlike many other foreign indexes and many users rely on google and yahoo for these quotes rather then getting them directly from the indexes which may or may not be valid). The "first global financial collapse" was caused by the ratio of household debt to "personal income" rose from 77% in 1990 to 127% by the end of 2007. This maybe wasn't the only problem. The previous financial collapses in 2000 and 2007 started with the “beginning of bankruptcy of large investment banks mostly in New York City but also around the earth. While the public was lead to believe that these investment banks where investing "wisely" most of this was "simple debt" and irresponsible "algorithmic trading". Its also possible that "algorithms" maybe have been part of the blame for todays "very quick" crash of 2020, since today 80%+ of all "stocks" are traded using HFT (high frequency trading arbitrage and general trading algorithms). The 2020 Economic Collapse will likely result in "finding new work" and a sharp rise in unemployment. A collapse of the tourism industry and "service industries" and general destabilization "consumerism". Hope this helps you! The market typically goes down and then goes up on its way down... even further... and economy work when people are friendly with each other and dont all try to "take" and have low economic pollution.
SP:SPX
by idasuperman
EURUSD Short Swing PlanEuro is in manipulation prolly due to the global condition at the moment by this pandemic. Trillions and billions of moolah been printed out from global center banks are just an rotten news at this point and everyone is racing against to combat the virus and protecting their own plunging economy. System has already cracked and no idea how long it might be going this way. Debt rising eventually in all nations but could help escalate back the economy for some strong nations who are good at credit ratings. Sorry I was falling into macros by the way talking about euro technically it's been in a huge bearish trend for months or even a year in higher time frame. Don't get excited with ups and down in lower pictures young boys and girls. The reason only it was doing fine against king (buck) at small timeframes were when low yielding had charms like babe yellow metal in shine! I have figure out closely like a head and shoulder pattern in 2 hour resolution and I reckon if this pattern workout it might move price upward making the right shoulder. But....!!! a big but!!! If this head and shoulder doesn't workout in first place and price plunge lower with strong bearish momentum (after all the broad picture is either way a bearish trend) without making any sign of creating right shoulder then our short bias can workout smoothly. The good thing about this trade plan is that it's guaranteed that either you make money or lose money as it's so transparent that if price make right shoulder which will equal to stopped out! We got an edge i mean even if we get right and even if we get wrong we will know it clearly ahead that what we have to prepare for! Thanks for reading my idea and I hope you enjoyed and if you think it added some value in your trading don't forget to support me by hitting a thumbs up button! (LIKE)
Short
by jessi061
17
Despite the threat of recession, inflation is rising.Normally inflation falls when there's a recession, but this time that is not happening. Central banks (including the FED) have pumped too much liquidity into the system over recent years and even with the threat of recession, we're seeing some scary inflation data. From the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: "For the year ended January 2020, within final demand foods, prices for fresh and dry vegetables increased 21.4 percent, while prices for pork increased 14.9 percent. Over that period, prices for eggs for fresh use decreased 22.1 percent and prices for fresh fruits and melons decreased 9.3 percent. Within energy, prices for gasoline increased 23.1 percent and prices for home heating oil and distillates increased 12.0 percent for the year ended January 2020. Prices for liquefied petroleum gas decreased 32.5 percent." Declining inflation expectations are wrong and will turn up when more data keeps coming.
AMEX:RINFLong
by malvinspooner
Keeping it simpleThe EUR/USD is at big time support level dating back to 2015 on the weekly. It has also been trending down for quite some time on the daily... If the weekly support, and the low pin bar is broken, I might play this down for a month or so. Fundamentally, if the US sinks into a correction there will be USD pain. This might create a fake breakout to the downside for the EUR/USD below the weekly support. On the flip side to USD pain if a correction happens, the USA seems to be the safest and best bet right now for investors: Europe has their own issues, Germany negative interest, China contracting big time, etc. etc... my point - maybe the USD will stay strong relative to other currencies, even in a correction/recession. Might be a bad place for the USA economy, but apples to apples, would it still be better than other countries in terms of investing? If this happens, then the EUR/USD will obviously slide further. I'm not going to place any long trades on this pair quite yet, but I am going to keep a close eye.
by Bankuur
Panic If Price Action Does Not Blast Through Record HighsI just wrote a bit of a thesis on potential head and shoulders pattern forming in the SPX500. This is basically that same information, but without the head and shoulders pattern in addition to two moving averages, 200 MA and 200 EMA. Also, I have added a moving average on the volume. As you can see, it has significantly declined over the past year since volatility dramatically picked up in January 2018. Keep in mind, JP Morgan just asserted that there is a 70 percent chance of a recession in the next year. At any rate, here the rest of the content: Not a perfect pattern, but few are. If the SPX500 does not reach record highs and does not go beyond those record highs with strong conviction, then it will suffer from the exact same chart pattern DJI did right before the 2008 Financial Crisis. If price action starts to move down then we would be witnessing a large head and shoulders pattern right into a financial crash or at the very least a large correction. We already know a recession is coming sometime in the upcoming year, but the question is when. However, that does not mean I am saying this pattern will form. I'm just saying its possible. And if it starts to form, be very very careful. Also by the way, volume is super f word low right now probably indicating most traders are skeptical as to why they should buy at such high levels. It is the second lowest level of volume since 2006 with the lowest level of volume since 2006 only occurring last year. Big red flag guys and gals. Too expensive for many. Expect institutional traders to attempt to unload their positions that they too believe are probably too expensive.
SP:SPX
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3