Hello everyone, The federal reserve has kept interest rates at near zero and printed the MOST money in US history back in 2020 and this has caused one of the worst inflation in 40 years. Jerome Powell decided to fight inflation by giving us the fastest rate raising campaign in history. He has kept rates too high for too long and we are now guaranteed a recession....
Chart Analysis: The chart depicts the relationship between the M2 money supply, US Consumer Price Index (CPI), labor market trends, and historical recessions. Key observations include: Recessions: -Historical recessions are marked and correlated with significant economic downturns. -Each recession coincides with substantial drops in the labor market and...
Macro Monday 14 US Employment Rate Pre-Recession Indications The Unemployment Rate tells us how many people in the United States are currently without a job and actively looking for one. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates and reports the unemployment rate. In basic terms it consists of the following; Survey: The Bureau of Labor Statistics...
The total stock market tracked by AMEX:VTI looks fairly bullish in that we are now trending along post-Great Recession (GR) lows for the upper non-recessionary channel defined since the GR. So if no recession is ahead of us (a very BIG if), things ought to be looking up. The two most recent recessions each hit the same lowest bound in this two-tiered channel...
As you can see in the chart, Recessions tend to start when unemployment rate bottoms. We're starting to see a bottom in the unemployment rate. Will we see a reccesion next? Let's wait and see FRED:UNRATE
Just as an extension to pure #DXY (see linked idea) I've added SPX price chart. I have shown previous recessions and market depressions for past 50 years and behaviour of #DXY & #SPX. Blue bars patter copies DXY rally after 1980 recession, which is of course just hypothetical. Hypothesis: - #long on #DXY - #short on #SPX
While retiring after some decent gains during this whipsaw day, I thought I'd go over utilizing the Weekly trend indicator, and how that ended up during a recession vs the occasional downtrend signal. To recap the video if you don't feel like listening, the ONLY time a Weekly Downtrend Signal has occurred, and that index prices were lower when the Weekly Uptrend...
I've seen this comment thrown around a lot on FinTwit (financial markets Twitter) recently... Most people would know that things go up and down, even Joe Public, right? If they didn't, we'd just have an infinite up only business cycle and everyone would be exorbitantly wealthy - absolutely no relativity theory of give and take at all. I completely disagree with...
The chart shows how Treasury Bond Yields behave over time and each time they are "bunching up" with very small spreads, that is the time when a recession in the economy appears.
As a crypto asset backed by real gold, is it time to put some money in PAXG in case of the upcoming big recession ? Well to answer that, YES and NO... 1. We don't know when will the recession comes 2. We don't know whether it will come or not (LOL) But still, it's better to be safe rather to be sorry!!!! My entry price point would probably be in the fibonacci...
a different perspective of equity markets performance , market is beating the covid-19 fear , but ongoing recovery seems too optimistic for now , many stocks have unrealistic overvaluations and many of them have undervaluations as well. entire global markets could go deeper corrections & rebalance before the next robust recovery. trade at your own risk. good luck.
Its very important to UNDERSTANDING THE PERSPECTIVE (PREVIOUS) ECONOMIC COLLAPSE and understand how we can work together to study things and help each other! The first two "2" modern recessions (studied in this graph from 2000/2003 and 2007/2009) where not felt equally around the world. Most of the world's developed economies, fell into a severe, sustained...
Euro is in manipulation prolly due to the global condition at the moment by this pandemic. Trillions and billions of moolah been printed out from global center banks are just an rotten news at this point and everyone is racing against to combat the virus and protecting their own plunging economy. System has already cracked and no idea how long it might be going...
Normally inflation falls when there's a recession, but this time that is not happening. Central banks (including the FED) have pumped too much liquidity into the system over recent years and even with the threat of recession, we're seeing some scary inflation data. From the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: "For the year ended January 2020, within final demand...
The EUR/USD is at big time support level dating back to 2015 on the weekly. It has also been trending down for quite some time on the daily... If the weekly support, and the low pin bar is broken, I might play this down for a month or so. Fundamentally, if the US sinks into a correction there will be USD pain. This might create a fake breakout to the downside...
I just wrote a bit of a thesis on potential head and shoulders pattern forming in the SPX500. This is basically that same information, but without the head and shoulders pattern in addition to two moving averages, 200 MA and 200 EMA. Also, I have added a moving average on the volume. As you can see, it has significantly declined over the past year since volatility...