Recovery
SPY/S&P 500 RecoveryI believe the S&P 500/SPY (as well as the other major Indexes) have begun a Recovery. If Uptrend Support is maintained, and barring any major setbacks, I believe the main Indexes (Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500) should approach their prior crests and peaks by Fall 2020.
I am not certified or licensed by any institution or individual to give financial advice.
QQQ/Nasdaq RecoveryI believe the Stock Market as a whole has started a Recovery. If QQQ/Nasdaq can keep from dropping below the Uptrend Support,I believe it (as well as the other Indexes and most major Stocks) will be well on the way to approaching the prior peak no later than Fall 2020.
I am not certified or licensed by any individual or institution to give financial advice.
Litany Against FearI must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear.
I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing.
Only I will remain.
- Frank Herbert, Dune: en.wikipedia.org
Account RecoveryThis is a simple table to calculate % account recovery.
Example if you have $ 1000 and you have lost 20%, now you have $ 800. to recover from $ 800 to $ 1,000 you need to earn 25% of $ 800
Dear friends, if this post gets 300 likes I will make post about how to managing your risks
Best Regards EXCAVO
FTSE CHINA A50 Possible Price Rebound?Price was within the descending channel for this equity index and lately, china had done very well combating the virus outbreak and it has lower death rate comparing to Italy and thousand have already been recovered where new cases weren't escalating the way it used to like past. This all proves that china is one of a great nation around the world which may prolly rise back first from this global pandemic chaos in the near future. It was the origin of that cruel virus and people have suffered a lot in the past which I believe the virus cases have reached its peak till today and nothing can get more worst if they continue holding this virus within the jar till the vaccine development. The easing of restrictions comes as Hubei reported that new infections dropped to zero on March 19. A dramatic plunge from the height of an epidemic that’s infected around 81,171 Chinese and killed over 3,277 but recovered 73,159 (which is a great achievement) on the date report 2020 March 24. China to lift lockdown over virus epicenter Wuhan on April 8 allowing transportation to resume for the city. All these positive changes in china let me feel that it may help domestic equities to run smoothly in the near weeks or months creating a rebound on the price action for this index. At least for short to mid-term even if it's not an overall reversal it may have probabilities to create new swing highs.
ETH in a snapshot - DAILY ChartWhat a week for Crypto! Honestly no matter how hard you tried, you couldn't escape the news regarding COVID-19. Crypto was not immune as we can clearly see based off the prices across the market. We can certainly kiss the idea of Crypto being a safe haven goodbye for now because whales were pulling their money out faster than you can say WTF. It broke through many logical support lines and even the 200 MA on the Daily. It wicked to the double digits before people got some sense and raised it to its current validation of ~$121. Hopefully you were HODLING through all the madness because it definitely wasn't warranted.
Right now the big players see our market as speculation and without circuit breakers, the pressures of selling become extreme. I would advise smart money to wait until we get more clarity in the bigger assets markets. Whether we like to admit it or not, that selloff on wall street affected Crypto. In the coming days, we will be getting more news coverage about the slowdown of the economy. Many of the forecasts I had regarding ETH have been delayed because of this unforeseen event. I won't be getting into ETH or Crypto for awhile until the markets and my chart re-calibrate. I am still LONG HODL and if it dips into the double digits again, especially around the 80s , Ill be looking to swipe a bag or two.
Now, if I were to get in, I'd look into the following factors from a TECHNICAL point of view. Reminder that TECHNICAL ANALYSIS goes out the window when faced with strong fundamentals (Assets across world sell off, hacks etc...)
*Moving Averages
*Patterns
*Volume
*RSI
Moving Averages = the 200 DAILY MA has been broken (Blue Line) without any fight what so ever. This can just as easily play the other way around, so as we start climbing toward the 200 MA, and say for example the 55 MA is providing it support, I would bet the support would be strong enough to break past that 200 MA.
Patterns = The earliest pattern I see potentially forming is a morning star -ish :
Do I like the pattern? Well ... for short/medium trades sure IF the next two are looking good :
VOLUME= Yes, we had major volume leading to the dip and even more the following day. Right now, we aren't seeing the same type of volume even though the candle currently is red. This is a good sign that the selling has calm down (*Yes, this could also mean fundamentally people are waiting for more news before investing but I am talking technical here*)
RSI = Undersold, what else can I say here. However I wouldn't look to deeply into this one just yet because the previous candles really did a number on this indicator. I would not be using this indicator as my only tool to get in/out.
The final verdict?
Short/Medium (a few days / weeks) we hit $150~ region. We complete the black pattern I drew on the chart. After which we would be testing very important resistances to continue our trip north. But something is telling me this is a bull trap and for that reason today I wouldn't want to LONG. If you got money you can split your orders; Have 1 around the double digits ($80s) and another around this current price to try and take advantage of this "calmness"
Risk Management will play a big role here, so cover your a**.
is XRP about to Bart its way UP? to recovery and beyondXrp had a nice trendline that lasted several weeks, but it get out of there and now is showing some signs of recovery;
could we see xrpbtc forming a bart way up to the 0.000038 and continue gaining more value?
with Swell just around the corner I think the answer is probably yes, we'll see
not financial advice, trade carefully
EW Analysis: Bullish Emerging Markets May Push EURUSD HigherHello traders!
Today we will talk about emerging markets(EEM) and EURUSD.
As you can see in the first chart, there's a positive correlation between emerging markets and EURUSD. Of course, there are no tick by tick correlations, but the current wave structure it's telling us that we may see a bigger recovery in the upcoming days/weeks.
Emerging markets can be trading in a three-wave (A)-(B)-(C) recovery up to 61,8% Fibonacci retracement and 46 area, especially after that break out of the corrective channel, so in our opinion EEM may easily stay in the bullish trend.
At the same time we can see strong and impulsive recovery on EURUSD, which is telling us that the temporary bottom can be in place and a bigger three-wave (A)-(B)-(C) correction can be underway up to 1.15 - 1.18 area, mainly because of break out of the wedge pattern (ending diagonal).
Notice that these are daily charts and they may take some time to completely unfold, so don't get confused on the smaller time frame charts. We just want to give you an idea, where the markets can be headed long/mid-term.
Be humble and trade smart!
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Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
Another Short Term Update On Our Total Market CapUpdate:
changed my lines around a bit and through in a schiff pitchfork for reference to levels.
Looks like we are going to be consolidating at this price range for the next ~3 days.
What does this mean for Bitcoin and the ALT coins you may ask?
We most likely will see a rebuild up of Bitcoins markets cap putting its price back up t ~8,800-9,200.
If Bitcoins prices breaks the 9,200 resistance level, we may see more movement up here, followed by a recovery in the market.
Butttt... the market seems to very weak right now with large amount of wash trading going on ("Wash Trading" = Creating fake volume on the market to show strength where there truly is only weakness).
I expect more Dumping from BTC on Monday the 29th, if and when the total market cap doesn't recover to ~245-260 Total market cap.
(Which is highly unlikely, not impossible though)
First target for dump 7,100-7,300 (Reversal at 7,300/ continued dump at 7,100)
Second target 6,300-6,600 (Reversal at 6,600/ continued dump at 6,300)
"Second target may not hit until ~5-7th of October"
ALTs?...
Most likely are going to see a continued dump until Bitcoin holds/ finds a reversal.
(May still bleed in this scenario do to everyone FOMO buying btc).
or find an increase if Bitcoin dumps while simultaneously we see more total capital is hitting the market (Strong sign of a reversal coming in my mind at least).
Minor ALTS under the 400 ranking may find pumps during this process, but those are just high risk gambles in my mind.
(These are the true Shit coins on the market and will most likely die off after a recovery happens).
#BTC shoudl recover to USD 9230There is a new move that started for bitcoin. This time it is very volatile and I think it should recover to the previous monthly level of USD 9230 which has been tested twice on July 17th and then the 28th, and then finally lost in the big dump that happened on September 1st.
## Where we are at the moment? Where should we move next?
Moving near the 8500 USD monthly level seems that in the short term a trading with a channel is very likely until it moves to the previous 9230 USD level or retrace to the 7430 USD level. The newly generated levels from the daily time frame are being respected in the 4 hours which seems to be a good trading opportunity in the short term.
The upper level and probably the best indicator that the trading channel zone is over is around 8770 USD. On the other hand the lower level would be around 8100 USD and will probably indicate a even lower move towards the 7430 USD level. There is a channel that most likely be the accumulation zone where it would either move upwards after a time frame that points to the upper level at 8535 USD and the lowest level at 8340 USD.
## In the long run....
I think another important thing to consider is how the move crossed 3 trend lines that defined the previous wedge and the move prior the dump and how this can indicate a possible future target level in the accumulation phase holds and creates a new move.
If today holds, we might be out of the water. Big "if" IMOFirst green day based on the Cashflow indicator since July 23rd. If this trend continues into tomorrow, we might be out of the water. Continuation tomorrow is very important. If we see positive action tomorrow, I will be going long on several discounted commodities. Let's wait and see my friends!
NZDUSD Long (discount entry was during Asia last night) Hi all, here is NZDUSD, the discount entry was last night for this one! Managed to catch this with a pending order, targeting the next market structural high on the D1 as a swing trade. We could see a pullback to discount before the market rallies up.... still a nice position to hold. NZD interest rate decision could spike further volatility in this pair, which could result in a pullback to discount, a D1 Stop hunt, or trigger heavy buying power back up into further demand. One to keep an eye on.
EURJPY: Important first half of AugustHello traders, this is my end of week analysis
Weekly: We can see where we are now:
What i can see:
- Huge bearish bar appeared at stopped at Support line
- Q: Will the Bear Force strong enough to effectively break the line?
Daily: Better view: Set-up activated
My previous analysis
So what i can see now on the current chart
- Price did not touch the line yet
--> Price can either enter recovery/consodilation phase or break and drop through the trendline
- watchout for a false break
- Any news appear can be important(!)
Big week comin'up. Be patient guys.
Happy and safe trading!
Is BTCUSD On the Way to the Last Record At $20,000?At the beginning of 2018, BTCUSD had failed to surpass the $20,000 mark. Thereafter, the drop was rough and painful. While some investors started to doubt the crypto-currency assets, the BTCUSD has managed to perform a hero recovery. In the last few months, it succeeded to triple its value from $3000 to almost $9000. Now, some of the investors believe that the price can reach back $20,000 which is the last record. If we would like to join the momentum, we should wait for the price at the demand below which is at a great continuation level, and buy there, at the first touch. At the moment, we can see the price compress down slow and easy and if the price remains that way, toward the demand below – it will create a great opportunity to buy. The first target will be the support at $11,000 zones, and the final target will be the last record of the price.