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NZDUSD: One More Bearish Setup 🇳🇿🇺🇸
One more pair that looks very bearish to me after news is NZDUSD.
I see a confirmed bearish breakout of a support line of a horizontal
trading range on an hourly time frame.
I think that a bearish trend on the pair will continue.
Initial target 0.59
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Bitcoin is ready for a 15% crash! (to 58k)Bitcoin may look pretty bullish, but do not get distracted. The price is forming a bearish distribution pattern inside a bearish parallel channel, as you can see on the chart. Right now, the odds are in favor of another crash. I am not saying this only because of the price action, but also because of the Elliott wave theory: as per my wave count, I am expecting bitcoin to finish wave (C) with a 1:1 Fibonacci extension level. Also look at previous waves, and waves (B) at this point look like an ABC bearish pattern.
Why is 58K important? We have a major swing low from March 5, 2024, and clearly there is a lot of liquidity and orders from retail traders. The whales need to consistently go for strong liquidity levels, as that's their only chance to buy bitcoin with a large amount of money. What they want to do is buy as much Bitcoin as liquidity allows and then send the price to the moon.
Right now, I really cannot be bullish on Bitcoin, but let me know your opinion in the comment section! I will be very glad. Let me know what you think about my analysis, and please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! Thank you, and I wish you successful trades.
Hindsight for your thoughts: gaps and market cap as resistanceSince bitcoin has already fallen from the price I've marked on my chart, I am going to explain why I think price will go to low 60k.
Idea Invalidation:
- If price continues to go up while above 2.5 market cap
- If bitcoin consolidates here and alts pump hard, then bitcoin rallies again
Price direction idea 1:
There are currently two unfilled CME gaps in recent times: March 2024 (63k) and April 2024 (67.5k) as seen on the chart. CME gaps usually get filled except for a few. Whenever they don't get filled, price will keep getting bought up during pre-market and reversion traders get trapped, forever holding their $4,000 shorts.
Below are examples of gaps that got filled over a long period of time.
2024 new year CME gap. 3 day weekend for NY market. Interestingly, the gap from late March 2024 was also a 3 day weekend, no dumping since Easters. Hasn't fully filled yet, might never.
December 2023 gapped up 15%. It also gapped down, but gap downs always get filled quickly so let's ignore it. The December 2023 gap up took nearly 2 months to get filled.
s3.tradingview.com
Price direction idea 2:
I'd say this gives more confidence to my position vs. the CME gap.
Market cap: I have an indicator that shows market cap without tether in it. It's pretty much the same as the market cap, except it has nice round numbers. It has been pretty good at calling tops and bottoms of the range that's developed since early this year. You can see that although price is at different points, the range can still define a top/bottom. The bottom/top of the market cap ranges show confluence with the volume rectangles which give confidence to sizing.
See more of the cap indicator here:
Notes:
Why did crypto and NY pump so hard on the March FOMC meeting? It was confirming that rate cuts were coming, but don't tradfi participants/firms still need to pay the same interest rates their trades?
This is hindsight, but I thought it would make sense to x1 short coin-margined bitcoin above prior ATH for a better rate than treasuries. Why pay leverage tax on a bet that bitcoin will go up when you can collect funding and lock in your gains?
I looked into why funding suddenly flattened out and I saw that Ethena is cash carrying to capture funding. Will Ethena's large OI reduce volatility? Will the suppression of funding cost make price simply float upward as perp apes pull spot arbitragers to the sky?
P.S. thank you to all that's supported me throughout the years. You all mean a lot to me :)
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Potential Scenarios For Next Week 🛢️
Crude Oil is consolidating after a strong bullish wave.
The price formed a horizontal range on a daily.
Next week, wait for a breakout of one of the boundaries of the range for a confirmation.
Bearish violation - a daily candle close below a support of the range, will give you a strong
bearish signal. A bearish continuation will be expected to 83.0 level then.
Alternatively, a bullish breakout of the resistance of the range - a daily candle close above,
will push the prices higher to 89.0 level.
Wait for a breakout, it will give you a strong confirmation.
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Dollar Index (DXY): Multiple Time Frame Analysis & Plan 💵
After a breakout of a key daily structure resistance yesterday,
Dollar Index is consolidating within a horizontal range on an hourly time frame.
For those, who are looking for an intraday signal to buy,
a bullish violation of the resistance of the range -
an hourly candle close above 105.32, will give a strong bullish confirmation.
A bullish continuation will be expected at least to 105.6 level then.
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USDJPY: Your Trading Plan For Next Week 🇺🇸🇯🇵
USDJPY is currently accumulating within a narrow horizontal range on a daily.
It looks like the market participants are waiting for some important fundamental data
next week to decide where to push the prices.
I see 2 potential scenarios.
Bullish
151.70 - 152.00 is a key horizontal resistance.
Its bullish breakout - a daily candle close above, will be a strong bullish signal.
A bullish continuation will be anticipated at least to 153.0 level then.
Bearish
150.8 - 151.3 is the support of a daily range.
Its bearish breakout - a daily candle close below, will be a perfect signal to short.
The first goal for the sellers will be 150.3 support.
Wait for a breakout, it will give you a strong confirmation.
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USDJPY: Your Trading Plan Ahead of FED 🇺🇸🇯🇵
USDJPY is currently accumulating within a narrow horizontal range on a daily.
It looks like the market participants are waiting for some important fundamental data
to decide where to push the prices.
I see 2 potential scenarios.
Bullish
151.70 - 152.00 is a key horizontal resistance.
Its bullish breakout - a daily candle close above, will be a strong bullish signal.
A bullish continuation will be anticipated at least to 153.0 level then.
Bearish
151.0 - 151.3 is the support of a daily range.
Its bearish breakout - a daily candle close below, will be a perfect signal to short.
The first goal for the sellers will be 150.3 support.
Wait for a breakout, it will give you a strong confirmation.
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NZDCAD: Intraday Bearish Confirmation 🇳🇿🇨🇦
Yesterday, we spotted a confirmed violation of a key daily support on NZDCAD.
After a retest of a broken structure, the pair formed a nice intraday bearish confirmation.
I spotted a horizontal range on a 4H time frame with a breakout of its support.
Such a violation increases the probabilities that the market will keep falling.
Goal - 0.805
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SILVER (XAGUSD): Bullish Outlook Explained 🪙
Silver nicely respected a recently broken key horizontal resistance.
After its retest, the market started to consolidate on a 4H time frame
and formed a horizontal range.
Its resistance was broken yesterday, signifying the strength of the buyers.
The market may keep growing next week, at least to 25.5 level.
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GMT will 10x in a few months! Buy nowTechnical analysis
GMT is one of the most promising coins to hold for the next few days and weeks. We can see that the price has been stuck in this rectangular trading range for almost 4 months. Now the price is ready for a massive breakout! It's good to buy GMT now, as pullbacks will probably not be available. My Elliott Wave count suggests that we are now starting a wave (3), which is usually the strongest wave of all of them! What you probably want to do is trade a breakout of the first impulse wave. Let me know what you think about my analysis, and please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! Thank you, and I wish you successful trades.
What Is GMT?
GMT is the native token of the FSL ecosystem, with a fixed supply of 6 billion tokens. GMT is well used in all FSL ecosystem products to be burned, used to unlock various functions and perks.
Satoshi Lab (FSL) is a fast growing web3 product development studio. STEPN is a Web3 app that combines Game-Fi and Social-Fi elements, focusing on encouraging people to move more. Users equip NFT Sneakers to walk, jog, or run outdoors, earning tokens and mystery boxes. STEPN's goal is to promote a healthier lifestyle, help fight climate change, and introduce people to Web3.
NZDCAD: Scalping Bear Trap 🇳🇿🇨🇦
I see a nice bear trap on NZDCAD.
Trading within a wide horizontal range, the price violated its support.
The violation turned out to be false and the market formed a tiny double bottom
on 30 minutes time frame.
We see a strong bullish imbalance now.
The market may keep growing to 0.8175
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GRT can 10x in a few weeks! Best time to buy now?Technical analysis
GRT looks extremely good on the weekly chart. We can see that the downtrend ended on a breakout of the red trendline, and since then, the price has been going upward. I believe this coin will 10x in 2024 if you buy it at the current price. We should hit an all-time high in 2024, and in 2025, this coin will continue in the price discovery! Put a stop-loss below my support zone!
Let me know what you think about my analysis, and please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! Thank you, and I wish you successful trades.
What Makes The Graph coin Unique?
The Graph is working to bring reliable decentralized public infrastructure to the mainstream market. To ensure economic security of The Graph Network and the integrity of data being queried, participants use Graph Token (GRT). GRT is a work token that is locked-up by Indexers, Curators and Delegators in order to provide indexing and curating services to the network.
GRT will be an ERC-20 token on the Ethereum blockchain, used to allocate resources in the network. Active Indexers, Curators and Delegators can earn income from the network proportional to the amount of work they perform and their GRT stake. Indexers earn indexing rewards (new issuance) and query fees, while Curators earn a portion of query fees for the subgraphs they signal on. Delegators earn a portion of income earned by the Indexer they delegate to.
Let me know what you think about my analysis, and please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! Thank you, and I wish you successful trades.