Selling Opportunity setup -NVDAIn general me and my brother, we are long on NVDA, but since we noticed multiple red flags, we believe that in the short term there are more odds in favor of a correction than a continuation. We take the upcoming earnings as a trading event and we access the risks versus the potential upside return.
Our trading system gave us a signal for a long entry on the open of 19 November 2024.
We will now show you the red flags:
#1 Pattern similarity
Feels like we traded this pattern before, see the current pattern of Nvidia VERSUS an old pattern of the SPY:
You can clearly see, that there was a correction and a long sideway action, then the price did a NEW HIGH on a small upward channel of higher highs and higher lows.
#2 Not the right volume pattern
You would expect that when the price is rising and makes a new local highs, the volume will increase on the upside, but there is a rise on shrinking volume. Also most of the relative large volume is on the red bars down on the selling side.
Let us do the following thought experiment, if a small edge fund wants to book profit on NVDA which I am sure such an edge fund exists since we are at all new time highs, they would put sell orders so a big edge fund will fill them and they will book a profit. This should be manifested as a large spike in volume, especially when the stock reached a new all-time high twice. But we did not see any spike in volume!
This means as Jesse Livermore liked to put it, the stock is not acting right ! We wanted to see Nvidia making a new high on large volume and push forward to $180 as analysts forecast, but it didn't.
We suspect that the rising in price, is a retail activity being allowed by the puppet master, so the puppet master could sell out Nvidia as high as he can. Hence he is the Master, and the public is the puppet. They are being played to believe that Nvidia will get to $180 right now.
Somehow we feel it's a red flag, that NO VOLUME is entering the market on a rising price. This COULD happen in a case where all the market and public are so bullish on Nvidia that everyone just lifted up all their sell limit orders to $160 plus, so this explains the non existance of volume. However, the odds are not in favour of this behavior since it is not normal human behavior of profit taking.
#3 No shakeout of the public
Previously the market shaked out all the non believers, but now, they just let the stock price chip its way up with higher highs and higher lows to reach $150 but not break it? ... No stop loss hunting to get liquidity from the market? looks suspicious.
#4 Options Chain Large Size on the long side (calls)
At first we wanted to buy options to the long side, but since we saw we were less likely to profit from it since IV (Implied volatility) is 100%+ it made the options prices too expensive, and no room for a reasonable profit. The day after earnings, the IV will drop dramatically and we saw in our indicator that it is a losing bet UNLESS it will actually reach $180 after earnings is released and we are skeptical about it.
See the options volume leaders:
You can clearly see that Nvidia is a leader of sold call options above $150 (open interest).
I don't know if you read the options book, but statistically most options end up worthless...
This is how the market makers make their money...
and it is profitable... to collapse the price of the stock... by selling hardly the stock... so all those options will end up worthless...
Because it is PROFITABLE to make them worthless, we somehow find it hard to believe they will let all those options become at the money by a price jump to $180 right now as analysts say it expects to go. Because this means they will lose lots of money on those sold OUT OF THE MONEY options.
There are substantially more amounts of Calls than Puts. (1.61 ratio).
The volume of options is crazy, this is serious money.
The options in the interesting prices ($150 for example) are 4 times larger calls than puts.
There could be a possibility that if the market sentiment of Nvidia is so bullish that they can't sell the stock down, they will have no choice but to edge themselves, and buy the stock itself which will ultimately drive the price of Nvidia up. We estimate this low in likelihood, given recent other earnings that pushed the stock prices down when the earnings are released after hours.
So what can you expect next?
You can expect this for sure:
If the post-earning movement will be to the upside, your portfolio of other stocks (the market) will not gain the same amount of return.
If the post-earning movement will be to the downside, since all the indexes will get hurt (due to high weight of NVIDIA), the whole market will get HURT, so NVIDIA loss will be reflected also in other stocks in your portfolio.
THE SELLING SETUP is to wait for NVIDIA to crush on earnings so it will crush the market, and then it is the happiest day for DAY TRADING ! to the short side...
Since, the odds for short on the post-earning day, are very high, and it is like a present from the market, since you can prepare yourself to it by waiting for the money to be on the floor, so you just pick it up.
