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Redistribution

$18.76 Billion Worth Of Bitcoin Was Dumped On Retail InvestorsBy looking at the volume profiles we can see buying volume and selling volume seperately for a certain price range. When we extract selling volume from buying volume, we can calculate the net buying or selling volumes (i suppose). Here i took the April low as the top of this calculation. On the left, i took the 7 segments for the trading range and the whole decline from April low. Results are fascinating when you subtract selling volume from buying volume at each price level: 2.897.000 - 2.763.000 = 134.000 Bitcoins (122.198 of that in wyckoff trading range) With an average price of $35k, this amount translates to $4.69 billion dollars AND this is just Binance! Given Binance market share is 25% we should multiply our result by 4 which brings us to $18.76 Billion as a whole! Notice how the current price range is just at 2.909 Bitcoins and one lower segment is at 6.694! This suggests that we are going to have lots of bull and bear traps in this area until the net selling amount reaches double digits, before we go down further. Composite Man is fucking net selling! Sorry, i tried being bullish, it didn't work.
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by BitcoinMillio18
61
Bitcoin: Wyckoff Update (See description for Redistribution ideaUpdate on my last Wyckoff Post I have linked below, we are still floating above the Weekly Support (Green) area but underneath Tesla average buy price. Failure to stay above 35800 is a Sign of weakness for me in the short term. Also there's a clear Bear Flag structure there. This is my rough plan for now I am hedge short but looking for another sound long term entry to ride the PRIMARY TREND which is bullish. If the Wyckoff "SPRING" is failing or a deeper spring then the next logical area for me is $MSTR MicroStrategy's average buy in price of $26080 per coin as a potential support area. Technically we could have a "Spring" type action even down at those areas and as long as we come back inside the trading range would be a valid Wyckoff Accumulation. My Wyckoff Accumulation Idea is linked below. Here is a potential Redistribution idea, note the clear formation of the Diagonal trading range. For the bulls to have a chance short term they need to reject this bear setup.. simple.
by Worth_The_Ri5k
3
Let's Assume We Are In An Uptrend & The Dip is InNow that everyone turned bullish, i wanted to analyse the possibility of an uptrend. Let's start; We have seen a higher high (HH) on June 29th at $36.600 following a higher low (HL) which are bullish signs, but notice how the HH felt $650 short from the top of this so called uptrend! It should have made a high at least at $37.253 which was the close of May. It didn't and that's weakness. Maybe what we were looking at was an upthrust after distribution (UTAD)? Now, price has just touched $35.750, the old weekly high and pulled back, we should see a jump towards $40k if this uptrend is real. That's a $5k candle. Bitcoin is know for it's unpredictability, it certainly can do this jump but i would like to see that candle first before i enter a trade. Because if this is just a nother trap, then we are looking at a Last Point of Supply (LPSY) in wyckoff distribution theory which ends up in a markdown like the one we had back in May 8-10. Look how we made HH's and LH's until the huge drop and notice the weakness. Speaking of wyckoff, i'm seeing lot's of uneducated comments and analysis on this, even from the famous social media gurus. When you ask them, they would reply; "I'm not a wyckoff guy" LOL :) One should - at least- know that there are 4 schematics in Wyckoff Theory not 1: 1- Wyckoff Accumulation 2- Wyckoff Re-Accumulation 3- Wyckoff Distribution 4- Wyckoff Re-Distribution Everybody is referring to Wyckoff Accumulation and how it's on track, however re-distribution schematics is almost identical until phase C. That's why validation of the schematics is very important. These weaknesses we have seen until now does not validate Accumulation and it's a signal for re-distribution unless we see that candle at 40k's. So, is it worth to take the risk now? No.
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by BitcoinMillio18
50
We Have A New Downward Column On P&f Chart TBC in 2.5 Hours!I'm always keeping an eye on the p&f chart as it's one of the main pillars of wyckoff method and we got our new downward column as we entered in to 32k territory. You may say we have recovered and held 33k and it was just a wick. A wick is still weakness and p&f chart created the new column to be confirmed at the day close. This new column, if persists and beaks below $31k, could very well end up at low 20's, which would be a double bottom breakdown pattern in terms of p&f chart reading. So, keep an eye on it!
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by BitcoinMillio18
29
BTC Very Likely in Wycoffian REdistributionLots of TA guys that apparently very recently found Wycoff theory seem to think that we are in Accumulation after just a single markdown and I don't see the case for that currently. A period of long term accumulation will lead to a mark up and then a consolidation in reaccumulation. Likewise when things begin to step down there is a distribution, markdown, and then consolidation for the next leg down. That consolidation is very often Redistribution. Think of re-accumulation as wave 2 in Elliot impulse or wave B in correction. The main difference is the direction into the trend and instead of preliminary supply we have preliminary support and instead of a buying climax we see a selling climax. One key point for each of these formations is you do not always get the Upward Thrust after distribution, but it is a nice sign when it occurs because it helps you see the distribution and know that the markdown will proceed violently. Since the price action is after the upward thrust and last point of supply I expect things should start moving in relative short time. It is very likely that this markdown will make up the right shoulder of this head and shoulders but that target setting has been covered by enough analysists I don't see the point of wandering off. I will just reiterate that I think we will bottom (and accumulate) around the 200 week SMA & the bottom of the monthly Keltner Channel, with some wicking.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
11
Bull Trap AheadHi Bitcoiners, Today, i want to take a look at P&F chart as it filters out most of the noise in price action. Notice how the volume was lower during the rally at the same price than our current volume. This alone indicates whales and institutions are net selling, each day, slowly. But, let's say we are in accumulation and we will go up. Then here is the list of resistances we need to clear out in order to call it a new uptrend, because remember we are bound into a sideways trading range and we are still in it. Bullish case: 1- Close above 35.500, ideally 36.500 and we have a new higher high 2- Break above 37k where the point of control (price with the highest volume) AND the supply down trend crosses 3- Break and close above 41.346 and exit the trading range So, we have quite a few challenges before going to the moon. The second chart i'd like to share is the monthly chart. You want to look at higher timeframes in times like this in order to avoid traps, noise and false signals. Again, notice how the volume is above the average. The aim of these drops is to exhaust supply or the sellers. I don't see any shortage of sellers right now. And the daily candlesctik chart. In the last 8 days we have a textbook bearish pattern called the "falling tree". It happens after a downtrend with 3 consecutive bullish candles. Read more here www.investopedia.com Speaking of candles, i'm watching daily candles slowly in the making and realized it's being engineered rather than a market action. We can easily see this on the session volume profiles on a daily chart. This chart is like an x-ray of candlesticks. You can see how the dump was started with such a small volume and giving us a fake rally with small volumes just to match support lines, while plebs are buying. So, i need the bullish case events i mentioned above to happen in order to become bullish. You don't want to FOMO here and besides, if we are going to $100k, we'll have plenty of chances to get back in. You may even call it a rule, never trade within a sideways trading range, you may get chopped off. Trade safe and beware of traps!
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by BitcoinMillio18
30
Redistribution The Evil TwinHi all, I've added 2 redistribution scenarios to my analysis. As you can see accumulation and redistribution structures on Phase B are almost identical. The only change here is the labelings and exit of the trading ranges. Here are the facts that support redistribution 1- Volume decreases on rallies and increases on reactions!!! It should have been the exact oppsite if we were in accumulation. 2- As a rule of thumb continuation is more likely than reversal, so after distribution, redistribution is more likely than accumulation. 3- Bitcoin is weaker than the market. Right now everything is green except Bitcoin. Validation, Validation, Validation: The red circles are my validation points: 1- Break below monthly support at 29641.48 = redistribution - Else, accumulation continues 2- Break above trend line (a series of lower highs) and accumulation is validated. - Else, go to 1 :) If you followed my earlier posts, you know i've exited at $40k and i'm in a nice 20% profit in terms of purchasing power. I was thinking of entering a new long position at $29.650, however i'll pass because i know redistribution is sudden and comes as a surprise with a quick action. I'm not risking it. So, i'm looking for confirmations. Right now the only thing that doesn't confirm redistribution is the amount of fuel in the tank, meaning the horizontal counts on the p&f charts. It's still 13 columns, translating to $39k potential. Given the price is at $32k, it can't go below zero :))) However, this doesn't mean it won't go below $29k. $19.695 and $13.888 are the two destinations of previous ATH's. But, there's one more destination: $26k This is based on the initial distribution count on Bruce Frasers May 14 analysis. You know there's huge fuel in the tank and i find this option the most likable :) My ideal scenario would be a spring down to $26k and then to $100k Can help but think bullish. I would like to remind you that bear traps are common at the bottom of the trading range, just like bull traps at the top. Trade safe!
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by BitcoinMillio18
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Are We Actually in Redistribution Down to $5k?We have successfully tested the upper resistance of our trading range with a tiny upthrust and turned down towards the $35k support, following $32k and $30k. Regarding p&f chart, i've explained in my previous analysis that we have 13 columns so far in the accumulation structure. This counts to a $39k potential, but we need at least $26k more to reach our beloved $100k, so We need at least 9 more reversal columns within the trading range for a potential of +66k markup taking us from $35k to over $100k. But... If we fail to break above trading range, we might see further downside and we souldn't rule this possibility out. That would mean the structure we are looking at right now is not accumulation but a redistribution, meaning continuation of the down trend. Remember in my last update, Bruce Frase analysis showed we could end up at 4-5k! So how do we tell if we are in accumulation or re-destribution? Let's watch another great workshop from Bruce Fraser on re-distribution structures. You will see it's not uncommon or impossible to find ourselves in this situation and it is my biggest concern right now. www.youtube.com I have drawn a red downtrend line on my imaginary accumulation structure starting on phase B all the way to phase D. This is a bearish descending triangle. If this plays out we can confirm the accumulation by observing this bearish triangle (which does not exist yet) and price should break this triangle in order to confirm and start new uptrend. If it fails to do so, we may find ourselves at $4-$5k lows! This is the difference between accumulation and re-distribution. Therefore, since we cannot confirm the bullish acccumulation case just yet, we should be patient and wait until such a confirmation happens. The rest will be history. Trade safe!
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by BitcoinMillio18
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BTCUSD Complete analyzed chartHello traders, We will see more fall in bitcoin after it tests the level of upthrust. We can recognize sir Wyckoff's Distribution theory pattern above the yearly pivot point and redistribution phase below the yearly pivot point. Before that at the end of the year 2019 it crossed yearly pivot point of 2019 to the downside and formed Accumulation pattern and crossed upside. In bitcoin, we can see that the pivots are the precious levels. Thanks to Sir WYCKOFF's work and research, he made it easy to predict and count accumulation and distribution phases. Hit like for support and follow for many more upcoming accurate pips. PREVIOUS ANALYSIS
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Aadil1000x
5
Shakeout not over - still looking for redistribution to 7200I've seen quite a few charts showing the 7600 tag as being the bottom of this impulse. This does not yet look like accumulation to me because the recent minor low at 6 am found relatively high volume. This means the shakeout is likely to continue downward until it makes a low with small volume indicating all of the weak money has transferred their accounts to the strong hands. Until volume dries up it makes more sense to expect the 1.618 extension at 7200 will be the final target region. This is also consistent with the bearish diamond reversal it made over night. Overall this is not an area with good RRR yet because it is likely to go lower in the short term but not very far. It is only good for short term scalping of the congestion region. Once it makes an accumulation pattern at 7200 it will be INCREDIBLY good RRR and possibly the best buy zone of the year. It is very likely to never test 7200 again if the pre-halving bullishness can give it enough juice to power away and upward. I have a BNB short scalp here which I am managing closely and not allowing it to take much profit back, but overall I am not looking to trade this area actively until it shows the strong hands have soaked up all the retail money.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by mljones
5