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This week is critical for ISPHThis week is critical for ISPH Multi timeframe analysis weekly to 5 minutes Analysis is based on Ichimoku, and Elliot waves. Confirmation is done by other indicators such as MACD, stochastic RSI, OBV, and RedK Everex. Watch the video idea to have the full picture of the stock under analysis. watch the video for more details Disclaimer: The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. There are risks associated with investing in stocks, and might involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Investors should note that past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. The investment value may be affected by market fluctuations. The stocks mentioned here are not equivalent to, nor should it be treated as a substitute for, time deposit or any other form of saving deposits. Investment in the securities of smaller companies can involve greater risk than is generally associated with investment in larger, more established companies that can result in significant capital losses.
EGX:ISPHShort
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
Hacking the 2023 Market Recovery with a Symmetrical Triangle Here's an easy chart analysis "hack" to help pick price levels to trade during the (hopefully expected) 2023 market recovery ... .... and ... it's just this, it's a hack - not a prediction and definitely not a trading advice :) In this hack, we make a couple of (bold) assumptions -------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 - that the market has already reached bottom and (just) started moving back up 2 - that this expected move up (for recovery) may take as long as (if not more than) the time it took the market to drop 3 - that - from a zoomed-out view - the drop and the recovery will roughly make up a wide V shape goes without saying, these are big assumptions, and also there are many unknowns that can happen anytime to change or affect these assumptions - in both good or negative ways. that's why i'm referring to this as a "very rough hack" :) -- still thought it was useful to share.. So with these assumptions, we can then use a simple Moving Average (I use the 20SMA here on a weekly chart) and couple of TV drawing tools; 2 rectangles and a diagonal line (or a triangle), to plot a very rough "path to recovery" - as explained in the above chart - the right arm of that inverted symmetrical triangle is the important element we need here - it will represent the "projected recovery path" - of the moving average we selected. for chartists, this is a "golden nugget" ... How is this "hack" useful ? --------------------------------------- - we now have a starting point when designing trades - entries and targets - knowing (at least with some little confidence) that the price will mostly remain above the "projected path" between now and the end of recovery - "mostly" here is a key word :) -- because for the SMA to take that path, the price should print these values (more than values below the SMA) - having that insights can provide a useful edge for technical traders to exploit - beside all the usual analysis, indicators, tools....etc that they use .. Did this work in prior market drops ? ---------------------------------------------- - this hack won't work with the 2020 COVID drop - that drop was so sudden with even a sharper recovery - this method needs more of "smoother drop moves" to become meaningful. - I tested this with the 2008 market drop - which was big and steep - with slow recovery - so somehow similar to the one we're going through now (from a very rough perspective) this is how that test looked like How to use this chart analysis hack ? ------------------------------------------------------- - Use it any way you want - and at your own risk - or do not use it at all - it may or may not work. No one can predict future prices in the market (no matter what some people may claim) - But assuming this can provide some rough guide to the recovery of some of the big names that move consistently with the market (like AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, AMZN, ..etc) - i plan to use the levels provided by this guide to pick best option strikes and expiry to play some long CALLs if this path holds. - for example, if we want to play the 115 long CALL on GOOG, we should consider taking expiry not earlier than early October (or later than that) - as in the below chart Again, please keep in mind that this is a hack - it's not a method of price prediction and not even a sanctioned method of chart analysis :) I'll be super glad if that idea helped inspire some winning trades - let me know in the comments.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by RedKTrader
QQQ: is it still a case of bull flag ? and the good news is...Quick Chart Reading on the QQQ's the QQQ's opened today with a relatively large gap down - later in the day price action is shaping to be what looks like a tight spread - for the optimistic ones (like me), if you really stretch the bull flag, we're still within a bull flag formation from the early Feb highs - a good sign is, the QQQ's seems to want to stay above the all-important 200SMA .. and the spread may even turn positive before the closing of the week later today. - on the weekly chart, the recent weakness is combined with a decreasing volume .. so that's another good sign - we also note that we're showing some greens on the MACD and the BSI on the weekly for the first time in a year. that's the best sign of a possible recovery - won't of course be anything immediate - will take time. - also on the weekly, Is this the formation of a high "right shoulder" ? i remain optimistic that this leg down won't be too long - if the 3 slow MA's (on the daily) keep their current "general tendency", we may be at a good place by early-to-mid may, where market goes into the slow summer. the next 2 weeks are crucial for market direction - and may present great opportunities as the big names consolidate (if they do). Hunting season starts.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by RedKTrader
NET: My Last Trade & the Next One: Patience & RenkoI just posted a note on the power of using Renko charts in preparing for a position - linked to this one. NET (Cloudflare) is on my watchlist for new positions. Had a quick trade on NET around the earnings earlier this month - and i'm now watching the chart for the next trade. would like to share some details showing another example of the power of Renko charts - entry @ $59 on the 8th - as marked on the chart - exited @ $69.45 -- triggered by a 3% trailing stop on the gap down on 16th .. P&L% was 17.7% -- not bad for a 1 week position (my P&L% was a bit higher as i also sold a weekly covered call as an earnings play) (Note: yellow vertical line shows where my entry would have been if I entered based on the chart signals - but i entered ahead of the earnings on strong fundamentals and expecting strong earnings.. the earning day's action confirmed the position was at little risk) so now, i'm looking for my next entry to ride the next leg up - believing that NET is starting what might be a strong trend as the market recovers - and the most important tools to help me pinpoint my next entry are: patience and Renko. here's how: - we can see 3 "FOMO Traps" in 3 consecutive days .. where NET opens with a gap (up or down) then runs up fast, only to close lower than open, trapping traders who thought that "this is it! the move up started .. let me in" - or those who have tight BUY STOP orders - these FOMO Traps don't even show on the Renko - and the Renko chart clearly shows that we're still "not there yet" - the MACD and the Strength Inspector on the Renko are both far from a positive setup. the MA's are still heading down .. clearly NET still needs to "build up" a bit more before the next leg up; - The entry setup i'm waiting for has been specified - My Alerts are set .. and the "Fisherman patience" mode is on :) .. waiting for the next ride. (As usual: This is not a trade recommendation !! but i hope it helps provide couple of good trade analysis nuggets :))
NYSE:NETLong
by RedKTrader
4
The Clarity of Renko'sThis is not a chart reading - and i'll keep it super short ... this is just a quick reminder that we have many powerful tools that we can use to enhance our analysis and trading outcomes.. too many that we sometimes forget to use them. The above chart shows a great example of that .. I was going thru the daily analysis and thought i should share this note with fellow TV chartists and traders. The 2 panels show 2 identical charts, same time frame, same date range, same symbol and same indicators .. the only difference, the chart on the right hand side is a Renko It's surprising to see how clearer the picture is when we analyze the chart and the price/volume action through the Renko lens. Taking for example, the 3 double/triple top formations and how they were expressed on both charts .. which chart is easier to action and trade? so the quick note here is, let's not forget about these powerful tools - and continue to leverage them as much as possible - Before initiating the next trade, check your Renko :) Note: most of my indicators and TA concepts are "Renko-friendly" ;) Notes & comments ?
NASDAQ:MSFTEducation
by RedKTrader
8
Chart Reading: PINS on the move finally? PINS may be on the move ... but has to first contend with 2 heavy congestion zones ahead. This chart reading uses MA's, simple VPA (Volume Price Analysis), MACD/Momentum and "built-in" Bar Strength analysis The weekly view is much easier to see given the high volatility on the daily TF .. there's finally some positive sentiment building up on the weekly - the weekly also shows that recently there is (relatively) good reaction to up moves and weak reaction to the downside ... let's keep an eye on PINS thoughts & comments ?
NYSE:PINSLong
by RedKTrader
4 Great Candidates for 2023 WatchListEarly Happy New Year 2023 ... Using the slow "down" time to "sharpen the saw" and prep for a strong recovery sometime in 2023 here are some of my top candidates for the 2023 watchlist to keep an eye on. what's common between these names? can you spot the similarities / theme between them? * The blue line is the SMA200 - and all 4 have already recovered above that line ahead of the pack. * all 4 names delivered positive earning surprises for the past 3 quarters * All technology / chip / semi -related. A good theme to consider for growth in the current decade. i'm also test-driving improved versions of the 2 bottom indicators (Mo_Bars and C&B Scout) - those i plan to rely on more in my trading in 2023 - sort of going back to basics with these :) if you know what these indicators are or have been using them, feel free to share your feedback . Happy and profitable 2023.
NYSE:JBLLong
by RedKTrader
4
NASDAQ: Are we there yet? (follow up from previous idea)this is a quick follow up from my previous chart reading using the weekly TF - we hit scenario #2, almost spot-on - market is showing some signs of recovery. we also see some good earnings results that are not (hopefully) being lost back (AMZN, UBER, PINS, even AAPL i consider "good") but - we still not there yet, though if we check the daily chart (below), the lower indicators are showing a lot of "green" signs, and we're above major MA's (50 and 100), the weekly view above still needs to fully recover - the signal i look for is that VADER (on the weekly) needs to show green in both the fast & slow before we consider ourselves in real recovery * what to look for next? --------------------------------- - there are some strong resistance ahead - big confluence zone (marked on the chart) - and even before we get there, the market needs to ease-up and do a re-test, then if the re-test is good, move up, then address the resistance zone .. so we're still few weeks away from recovery .. and when recovery happens, it's gonna be shopping season :) - The Usual Disclaimer: This is just me thinking aloud - please trade safely and do your own thorough analysis. Good luck
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RedKTrader
NASDAQ Monthly View: Are these the scenarios we should expect?Been a while since i posted a chart reading. so here's a fresh one - with a question at the end... cause honestly, i don't know :) This is an interesting view of the NASDAQ - using a monthly chart of the NQ1! - showing the market action since the famous 2008 drop - with an attempt to find some sort of a trend or logic to how the market moved along the years. During the COVID drop back in 2020, the market gave up enough signs that allowed many traders to get out of market before the drop, then come back in at the lows. in contrast, this time, the drop was somehow less expected - quick rise in inflation, new COVID waves with renewed lock downs, supply chain issues , and a strong geopolitical storm and war breaking out - Similar to some other traders, i got caught while i was fully "in the market" this time with a portfolio of mainly tech stocks that started dropping faster than traders could react or hedge. so the wise thing to do is .... you guessed it, hold on to your seat and keep you head low :) the question i'm trying to "think aloud" about here is, where is the recovery to be expected this time? (How long do i need to "sit on my hands" :) ? ) this view looks at a 12-year history with the 2 major market drops - it shows 3 possible recovery scenarios - Scenario #1: recovery around the $12,300 level -- that's the post-COVID resistance-turned-support level - Scenario #2: recovery around the $11,000 level -- that was the first post-COVID support level and if we breach both these 2 possible support levels, the next (our worst case scenario) is - Scenario #3: recovery around the $9,700 level -- that's the pre-COVID market high we're already > 20% drop from the highs - the monthly and weekly views show that in spite of recent signs of a possible recovery, there's still a lot of weakness and volatility to come .. a lot of patience and calm are needed as we still have some bad weather ahead.. i'm curious to learn from the past and see what the charts tell us, and also check in with fellow traders who also got caught in a similar situation. which scenario do you think may unfold, and why ? do you see other possible recovery scenarios ? my guess is, we'll get our answer between August and December .. but it's an interesting exercise.. all ideas are welcome. please feel free to share your views and comments. and please trade safely. Edit: Here's the chart without the lower indicator panes for a clearer view
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RedKTrader
4
MSFT: my ride (long entry) is almost here!Been waiting for this scenario to unfold for couple of weeks now. here's an updated view from my prior MSFT post (linked below) - i'm sorry if it looks too complex with all the on-chart analysis this time, we're zooming in to the 4hr chart as i was curious to compare this move to the prior one, and they seem very similar MSFT dipped below $322 in pre-market today already and it seems we're in for another down day - so the time is almost here for our long entry - still prefer a breakeven entry below $320. $315 is still the magic number. so bottom fishing season open :) - looking for a 15% upside to a target ~$370 somtime in Q1 Here's how my other chart setup looks like - using the 1D view. what we're looking for is a dip below the 50SMA, which the xMACD shows it may be possible within the next 1-5 days. Disclaimer: as usual, this is only my expectations - not a trade recommendation
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by RedKTrader
11
AAPL: Do we get our next entry @ $150?Quick chart reading for AAPL, and our possible entry below $150 - $155 is our ideal "buy the dip" level - as shows on the chart - and a repeat of the previous cycle of a 10% upside. was a good trade. the curious thing, this is very similar to the scenario expected from MSFT, that i just posted - also an around ~10% drop from the high - and a similar ascending channel. Interesting how these big players share similar dynamics. the main difference with the AAPL setup, is that the demand is still high (V.Viewer at the bottom panel) - so retail trading is still finding opportunities to buy into the current long wave - it's understood that some find AAPL more exciting with more hype around it based on latest news relative to the "good old boring" MSFT but AAPL chart is giving signs of weakening - big run up days that fail to reach previous highs - and couple of shooting stars - so we can expect AAPL may continue to drag along the top channel levels for a while before the actual decline - both scenarios marked on the chart we can be selling cash-secured Puts instead of a straight limit entry long at our expected support levels. ideally we want to be in long before the holiday season or the next earnings in Jan. this is not a prediction nor a trade recommendation - just few thoughts and a possible scenario out of many - no one can predict the future - please DYOR before trading. -- good luck!
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by RedKTrader
7
MSFT: an average entry of $315 would be awesome MSFT quick chart reading and a possible scneario that can provide a nice long entry at around 10% discount from the highs. We're setting up for a repeat of that zigzag trade on MSFT on the ascending channel - if the expected scenario unfolds - bottom fishing season is on :) - need patience. we look at entery between $322 and $310 .. or we can scale in with an average entry price of ~$315 - somewhere within the next 2-3 weeks - target entry zone marked on the chart for simplicity the BSI and v.viewer in the lower panels both support that setup - this is only one of many possible scenarios - not a trade recommendation. we also need to see confirmation of reversal when we reach that bottom level. please trade carefully and DYOR.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by RedKTrader
3
Will we see this in December ? NASDAQ Chart Reading Dec just a quick chart reading here - as we see from the last few bars, the market seems to be looking for a reason to slow down and consolidate - back to the 100SMA (dark blue line on the price chart) we have seen this scenario before - in the previous reading (linked below), the market respected both the channel and the 100SMA and reversed from there - after we had to take some pain. the red rectangle represents possible reversal zone and would be around wk3/wk4 December - if not earlier - and somewhere between 15,500 to 15,700 - we see that it is a strong confluence area, potential support level meets with 100SMA and the lower border of the channel. Many traders will be watching that zone for a reaction lower indicators already showing weakness coming in - they support a scenario of a wave down. let's see if this will be the scenario to unfold, or are we in for other surprises.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RedKTrader
2
How to Tweak & Sync Indicator Settings? (and Why should I care?)This post is dedicated to exploring and reviewing key concepts specific to configuring technical indicators - these concepts may be obvious to those who have been doing charting and technical analysis for a long time, but hopefully useful to some who are new to charting and the world of technical indicators. Also once we are familiar with these concepts, we are able to leverage them with almost any chart setup, any indicator, any trading style, any timeframe - or choose not to use them at all - or to partially use them - we will have the necessary background to make an intentional decision to develop our own configurations. in this exercise, we will attempt to answer few -but very common- questions: 1. what are the best settings i should use for my indicator(s) ? 2. what are "correlated indicators" ? 3. Why should i use indicators on the chart - The price action has all the information i need. First a quick, fun exercise............. What's wrong with the above chart ? Nothing, right? we're looking at a daily chart of the Q's - we're using 3 of the most famous (built-in) indicators: The Moving Average Ribbon - on the price panel- and the MACD and the RSI - on lower panels- all 3 indicators are used with default settings (you may say "no one does that?" - we will for now - just for the sake of the exercise, and to explain couple of concepts, so hold that thought). (for this exercise, assume i am a QQQ trader who traders the daily timeframe. I open and hold positions for few days to few weeks) Now, let's use the chart above to identify long or short trades based first on the MA cross-over (looking at the 2 faster MA's in the ribbon) and check for confirmation from the MACD and the RSI in the lower panels. Should be easy, right ? we'll start by marking the MA cross-overs with a vertical line that cuts thru the MACD and RSI and see what we get. here's the chart showing this part of our exercise we have found 4 possible trade setups, based on the (2 fast) MA cross-overs on the price panel - but when looking for confirmation from MACD and the RSI, we ended up with 3 with confusing signals and 1 that's a "Maybe Long" (... if you find yourself in this situation -regardless of what is being traded, what indicators you use or the timeframe, then hopefully this post may help) Question 1: So how to tweak and sync my indicator settings to get good, reliable trading signals across multiple indicators? there are 3 steps to answer that question and get our "no confusion" chart setup completed. Step 1: identify your trader's preferred timeframe and trader's time horizon let's quickly review these 2 core concepts a. The Traders Preferred Timeframe each trader has one (or more) preferred timeframe that works best for what and how they trade (full-time vs part-time, stocks, futures, forex, options, crypto..etc etc), their trading style, their risk appetite and tolerance, their capital, and some other variables. the first thing i need to determine is what is my preferred timeframe. for example, for me, it is the daily (1D) - i have tried the hourly, the 10min, and also the weekly...etc before, and i found i am much more comfortable with the 1D timeframe. it suits my trading style and goals - i have enough time to adjust trades, don't need to watch charts all the time...and many other reasons. so 1st requirement: identify preferred trader timeframe: daily (check!) (what is your preferred trader timeframe?) b. the trader's "time horizon" with the preferred timeframe identified, the next step is to define what is my short, medium, and long time horizon i need to be watching and analyzing to make trading decisions (others may call this something else, let's call it the time horizon) for example, as a day traders, who trades only stocks and basic options, i need to look at the price action for the current week, 2 weeks and 4 weeks (almost a month) - that doesn't mean i won't look at charts that show price action for a whole year, or an hourly - but for making a trade decision, the price action for this week and this month are what i need to check the most there, we just solved 2nd requirement - my time horizon let's express this in terms of my timeframe: 1 week = 5 daily bars, 2 weeks = 10 daily bars, and 4 weeks = 20 daily bars (check!) (what are your short, medium and long time horizons as expressed in units of your preferred trader timeframe?) from the above exercise, i identified that i need my indicators to be set to 5, 10 and 20 on a daily chart. this is going to be the most comfortable and relevant settings *for me* to support my trading decision according to *the way I trade* Step 2: Ok, so now let's tweak and sync our indicators in the above chart and see if that improves my ability to find possible trades we'll set the MA ribbon to 5, 10, 20, 50 - we set the MACD to 5 and 10 (don't worry about the MACD smoothing/signal - let's make it 4) - and we set the RSI length to 10 make sure we're using the "close" price as the source across all indicators make sure we're using EMA (vs SMA) as the moving average type across all indicators whenever possible. Here's the *same chart* with my indicator settings tweaked and Sync'ed Step 3: let's make some simple but *really useful* visual enhancements to help us see the chart overall in a "visually clearer" way (this is very useful to the more "visual folks out there) -- here's what we did - we hide the unused (slower MA's) on the price chart (for now) - we added an EMA smoothing line on top of the RSI - and made it easier to see (color, width) - hide the underlying RSI itself - you know how to do that trick, right? - we also tweaked the main MACD line (color, width) to make it stand out - other elements are tweaked to "fade" Now let's see if it's now easier to find those trades - Here's the same chart with Sync'ed Indicators AND our "visual tweaks" - and voila! we can see 5 trades with signals from all the indicators agreeing and confirming. All signals are in sync - no "maybe's" and a lot less confusion - and the best things is, all indicators are tweaked to my preferred timeframe and my trader's time horizons. you can apply the same approach we used here to any other indicators you use. we just used this set as an example and to explain this concept. Question 2: What are correlated indicators ? ----------------------------------------------------------------- to answer that question, look at the last chart we arrived at above - Do you see something surprising in that chart? if you inspect the MACD and the RSI plots, you will find they are - visually and broadly - similar , right? they both cross the base line (0 for MACD and 50 for RSI) almost at the same places - and they have overall similar "plot shape" - why is that? this is because the MACD and RSI when sync'ed and tweaked, are correlated indicators - although the calculation formula is different for each, and one of them (RSI) is a restricted oscillator (+100 / -100) while the other (MACD) is not - they both express price momentum - and when tweaked and sync'ed the way we did above, they will (almost) give the same signals. in fact, in our example, all our 3 indicators (the MA pair on the price panel, the MACD and the RSI) are correlated - they're all ,basically, "saying the same" thing - the signals are triggered at exactly the same time - they are redundant in this setup. what does that mean for me as a trader ? it means i'm not receiving any "valuable, additional" insights by having 2 (or more) indicators that represent the same price attribute (in this case momentum) - unless, -- i intentionally want that - and will change settings for one of those indicators to reflect a different "time horizon". for example, i can set the MA pair on top to lengths 20 and 50 - and use the MACD to get signal on the short term (5 and 10) action while the pair on the price chart act as a long-term filter (only take long trades when the MAs agree). or -- i start looking at utilizing other technical indicators that provide completely different insights - and inform me about other "hidden market action attributes" & variables beyond the ones i already have (volume is an excellent indicator by itself, also can check for indicators of sentiment, strength of move, squeeze...etc) - this is where more technical analysis research will guide the trader - also it's useful to learn from others and what they are using in their trading setups, and asking "why" questions. there's so much to say in this part - but i will leave it there.. just a teaser and hope i was able to make some of you curious to research this further - review your trading setups and see if your settings are out of sync, there is redundancies, and how you can get a better picture of price action thru your chart setup. Question 3: if price action has everything i need, why do i need technical indicators in the first place? ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - this is a big debate .. for me, the answer is simple - can you drive your can without the dashboard that informs you when you're about to run out of fuel, or that you're exceeding the legal speed limit - or less obvious things, like your engine temperature - or when the engine oil is below the (red) limit. if i do that once, and i still get safely to my destination, it's definitely not a sure sign that this is what i should always do, or how everyone should be driving their cars. but then again, it doesn't have to get too sophisticated - if, for my preferred time frame and my time horizon, i can see insights that makes it easier for me to quickly understand the price action (like the dashboard in my car), if i can see the trend, strength / momentum, volume supply / demand, and the prevailing sentiment - i guess that would be good enough. Also, there's that other big topic - that indicators are meant to indicate. again, the dashboard in your car is meant to show these things like fuel, speed, engine temperature and oil level, RPM..etc - but the dashboard will not tell you where to go with the car .. you already have a plan, and that's why you're driving your can in the first place. so indicators do not trade for us -- and all this exercise above, is in the service of (and a function of) the trading plans and goals that you already have in mind, before looking at any indicators. in closing, sorry for the long post :) - hope this post helps inspire some fellow traders to further improve the way they trade. please trade safely.
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by RedKTrader
19
Tutorial: How SMAC can help find the Ideal Covered Call StrikeQ3 Earning season is approaching fast Background: The earnings covered call volatility play ------------------------------------------------------------------ one of the easy earning plays if you hold a portfolio of stocks (or if you're a fan of the wheeling strategy) is to sell Covered Call (CC) right before the earnings announcement - when the volatility is inflated and the premium price peaks - usually using weekly options - which then you can close immediately after the earnings have been announced, or just leave them to expire worthless if they end up out of the money (OTM). When this play is done right, and depending on your position size, it can deliver few hundred (if not thousand) bucks literally overnight. When we design this play, we need to consider also the scenario that with the earnings announcement, the stock price may shoot over our selected strike, and we may end up getting assigned - and the stock is called away from us. However, with the proper "design" of this trade play, you can set it up for a "no-lose" trade scenario - if you don't get assigned, you keep all the call premium (not bad for a 2-day trade) - see example below - you still keep the stock. - if you get assigned, you will earn the difference between the strike price and your breakeven *plus* the covered call premium -- so a winning trade in both scenarios. if we can repeat this play for few stocks during earnings, the gain can accumulate and bring in a very "good month" for the trader who can master this play. Using the SMAC to make this scenario easier ----------------------------------------------------- One of the reasons i wrote the "Auto-stepping, Zero-lag Moving Average Channel - SMAC" script is to help me with trade scenarios like this. Let me share how. - Assume i hold 1,000 AAPL shares in my portfolio. - i just bought them couple of weeks ago - and i am planning to play the volatility and sell Covered Call into the upcoming earnings using the weekly options. - my goal is either to collect the call premium and keep holding AAPL past the earnings - or to get assigned and sell the stock and realize a profit larger than what i would have got if i just bought then sold the stock direct - my preferred strike "distance" is 5% Out of the Money (OTM) - which can give a reasonable value of premium while giving me room to still keep the stock if the price doesn't shoot that high due to the earnings. - I plot my breakeven price on the chart - say for the example here, it's $143 - Add the SMAC to the chart and set the SMAC Percent Envelop to 5% - This will immediately show what price range i should pick the Covered Call strike if i want a 5% OTM -- it's the $151 or the $152. Maybe i would pick the $152, cause if i get assigned, it would give me a larger gain on the underlying position. Calculating the P&L for both CC scenarios is also easy now on the chart --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Not Assigned: after the earnings, the stock still closes below our strike - we can even leave the call to expire worthless - no commission paid - i keep the premium assume the CC premium is $1.3 by the time i sell the CC & assume i have 1,000 AAPL shares, that's $1,300 over-night! = 1% return and i still keep the stock - We get assigned with the same assumptions above, we keep $152 - $143 = $9 + the premium ( = $10 bucks per share -- that's $10,000 in 2 weeks. around 7% return) - we can buy AAPL again later on a dip. *** Big Note here --------------------- Another scenario is, if my breakeven for AAPL is above the 5% strike price level, in which case, i would not consider this trade at all - because if i sell the CC and i get assigned, i would basically close my position at a loss - again, once i set the SMAC and my BE of the chart, i can easily see if that's the case and make a fast trade decision - here's how this would look on the chart if you hold 1 or 2 positions in your portfolio - this whole SMAC / Chart thing may not be worth it - maybe a quick mental calculation or simple spreadsheet is easier :) - but if you hold 15-20 positions in your portfolio / multiple accounts, doing this fast during the earnings days and visually on a chart can save a good amount of time and give more confidence. i hope this can inspire some fellow traders to share how else they can use the Auto-stepping zero-lag Moving Average Channel Please do not treat this post as a trade recommendation - or as trading education - i'm just sharing thoughts and some of my limited experience - Please trade safely.
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by RedKTrader
16
MSFT: 6-month possible viewThis is a quick chart reading for MSFT that shows a possible scenario for calendar Q1 2022 using the weekly chart - The key assumption here is that MSFT will continue to maintain the same ascending channel that's in place for the last 3-4 years (excluding the COVID effect between Feb-April 2020) - there are 3 price levels to note: $330, $345 and $375 -- Target zone is marked in blue -- breakout to watch for is going above $305-310 - we're just out of the buy zone. some traders will argue that it's still OK to buy at the current levels - timing can be different and we also have dependency on the broader market, which acts more like "prevailing winds" - we have seen a lot of volatility recently and that is expected to keep impacting the individual stocks. the only issue i have against this scenario is that the momentum is way too high (per the xMACD) - and it makes us wonder if it's sustainable, or will there be a correction first then a continuation. if we play this scenario, we need to be very careful about the associated risks. remember no one can predict the future.. and this is not a trade recommendation. Your view may be completely different and that's totally fine.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by RedKTrader
AAPL: Can the next move give us $32 ?A fellow trader alerted me that my previous AAPL chart reading is too unreadable :) - so here's a fresh, cleaner chart reading showing only the price chart - no complex indicators - using the weekly view and marking what i will be closely watching in the next 3 months - and possibly a trading scenario (long) - this scenario is still inline with the previous one .. linked below. - Disclaimer: This is only one of many possible scenarios - no trader (or indicator) can predict the future - Please do not consider this as a trade recommendation and do your own research before risking your capital main assumptions: - AAPL will maintain the (longer-term) up-trending channel established almost a year ago - Quarterly earnings (in Oct and Jan) show favorable results (regardless of market reaction) - mainly fueled by iPhone13 & other new products - Holiday Season sales - Expect sideways price movement above support - the next 2-4 weeks - so the timeline may vary Estimated entry and exit zones are as marked on the chart Possible breakdown if $134-135 level is breached to the downside Possible breakout if $154-155 level is breached to the upside Average entry / BE around $138 Average Exit / TP ~$170 Target is $32 (P&L around 23%) overall time ~ 3-4 months (Oct to Jan/Feb 22)
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by RedKTrader
4
AAPL: Quick Chart Reading & a possible setupOur previous chart reading for AAPL was a good one - we hit the buy zone, 2 projected target price levels, and sold on target. when this happens with a chart reading and a trading plan, it's awesome !! although the over-bought condition extended and tried people (buyers) patience (and FOMO) i'll link the previous chart reading below for review if needed if AAPL continues to honor the current price channel structure, then there's possibly another easy setup to exploit - it just needs patience. We see AAPL is moving toward the new buy zone .. the ideal level for me is around the $138 - with indicator value supporting that scenario (Supply is high, sentiment and short term momentum both in the red) - and if the channel holds, and the price swings up at the lower channel - maybe sideways a little bit there first - then we can target around a 15% upside to the $157 - $160 range please note that while this is my trading plan - it's just one of many scenarios that may unfold - your view may be different (and that's normal) but please do not take this as a trading advice and DYOD / research before you trade. no one can tell the future or predict price moves
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by RedKTrader
1
Quick tip: Add a signal line to your indicator, no coding!Want to make your RSI smoother and easier to track and follow its signals? You can add a moving average signal line to it. Let me share how to do this quickly without coding. This is a very neat and easy trick you can do - thanks to TradingView :) - using the feature "Indicator-on-indicator" Quick Steps: add RSI to your chart if its not already there, hover on the RSI indicator label, click the "..." ellipsis, choose the option to "Add Indicator/Strategy on RSI" - it will be the second command from the top on the shortcut menu, and choose your favorite moving average from the indicator library - adjust the MA settings to your preference - and you're done! No coding needed. maybe, like me, you are experimenting with my recently-published RSS_WMA - aka the Lazy Line 😎 - will add a link below - you can add it to your RSI like i did in the example chart above. The RSI with the new signal line looks a lot easier to use and trade on, right? The MA Line not only makes RSI more visually appealing, but also makes it easy to follow the RSI movements into OB/OS zones, or crossing the middle line. for "visual folks" like me, this is an improvement that makes a big difference in my trading. * You can use this same trick with any other indicator / combo of indicators - that would make sense to combine with this approach - in your charts. Get creative. * Indicator-on-Indicator is an awesome feature - just wanted to share a quick reminder of this trick, as i also forget about it most of the time. * for more details, there's a comprehensive guide to this feature in TradingView's Help Center www.tradingview.com trade safely and good luck!
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by RedKTrader
15
Thoughts: Strength of Move (SoM) vs Trader Pressure Index (TPX)Recently I posted updates to both my Strength of Move (SoM) and the Trader Pressure Index (TPX) indicators as promised, i'm sharing this post to share how i use both of these indicators together as i trade, and how they act differently but complement each other. Please note that these are only my own (humble) thoughts, based on how i thought about and designed these indicators, and what i expect them to show me. these thoughts are not professional recommendations and they may not work for other style of trading - they may even not make sense to someone who trades differently or if i flexibly use (or misuse) some of the classic technical analysis terms - apologies upfront for all that. also apologies if it's a long(ish) read, Let's start with some background... How is TPX different from SoM? ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TPX is designed to represent the battle between buyers and sellers - or bulls and bears - by inspecting the highs and lows of consecutive price bars - in simple terms, if the highs and lows of bars are moving up, that's considered "bull pressure" - and if the highs and lows of bars are moving down, then that's considered "bear pressure" - a simple averaging calculation captures these values, and calculates also the Net Pressure - we plot these 3 values on an oscillator - and that can help show us who (bulls or bears) is in control of an ongoing price moves. So TPX shows Bull / Bear Pressure .. how is this different from "Strength of Move" ? isn't "strength" and "pressure" kind of "similar"? SoM is designed to track the average change of price within a short period of time (2 to 5 periods) - and then looks into how that average change compares to a "longer average of move" -- for an analogy, think of this as if we're driving a car on a road - we're taking readings of the "distance covered" per time unit as we go - say our time unit is an hour. now, for the last 3 hours, we covered an average distance of 5 miles per hour -- but we used to be able to cover 15 miles per hour before -- this would be an indication that "we are losing speed" - we're travelling "less confidently" than we used to before -- but if before we were able to cover only 1 mile per hour, then 5 miles per hour is a great number, right? and in fact would show that we're accelerating. SoM depends on the fact that price action is "relative" to previous / recent price action - if you're watching AAPL for the last 2 weeks, and it was in an up-trend, making jumps of 1.5% ~ 2% per day - then all of a sudden AAPL starts slowing down to 0.3% and 0.1% per day - or even registering down days - we know that the honeymoon (up-move) is over and that the trend may come to an end, or even reverse, soon. long story, but that's how SoM was designed -- SoM reflects the "bias" or "confidence" of the average price move -- note: bias is short-term-focused and is different from Sentiment (which is long-term) -- this is how i utilize these terms here. -- another note: a -100% in SoM doesn't necessarily mean a price move to the downside - since SoM is relative to recent average price moves, it may just mean that "we're registering very weak moves that are the weakest we have seen in x (the length value) period" -- this can get a bit confusing. if it does, please keep it aside for now. Now with this part clear - let's look at the examples here. We have SoM and TPX overlaid in the same panel (they're both +100/-100 oscillators and it saves space - colors become a bit of a challenge though :)) - there's a moving average on the price chart and a MACD in the lower panel - this is actually one of the setups i use for my trading. here's the key benefits i designed the SoM to achieve: ================================================ 1 - early detection of weakness & strength: in the AAPL chart example, we can see how SoM can be early to detect the end of a trend (the car in the above analogy is losing speed) - and shows a bias towards weakness, before both the trendline and the MACD. what i also like about SoM is that (because of the use of the stoch function) its behavior is "unambiguous" - so we can't mistake that it is going down when it does. This is an important parameter IMHO for a good indicator. in the example below, a similar scenario shows couple of times on a smaller/faster timeframe - example (1) shows price moving in a range with a slight "bear pressure", but SoM detects a bias to the upside - and in example (2), SoM detects the end of the trend before any of the other indicators - this is not an issue with TPX or MACD, it's just that SoM is designed to be more sensitive as we explained above. 2 - Shows good entry / exit opportunities Another benefit of SoM is that it can show good re-entry or exit opportunities, when the trend and pressure are up and we established a move up for price, i can use SoM to locate opportunities with the most "price weakness" to enter with a long position, to maximize profit -- same with an established move-down, i can find best "strong" bars to open a short position - i use that approach to time my entry into covered calls against my stocks - I highlighted couple of examples on the chart above. 3 - SoM helps confirm strong trends the recent addition i made in v4, is to show a (blue/magenta circle) signal when the unsmoothed SoM plot (shows as a very faint silver line) hits 100% in either directions - when this happens, it reflects a strong price bias to that direction - our car all of a sudden accelerated to 50 miles per hour - these "relatively big moves" usually mean something is underway - and if the SoM continues to print these signals with confirmation from MACD and TPX, then the probability of a well-established trend is high and i can plan my trades & risks accordingly - best way to learn how these indicators work together, is to add them to a chart of something you already trade and are familiar with how it behaves, set the chart to a small timeframe, say 3 mins, and watch it for a while - try to interpret what the signals mean and expect the next move - we will not be 100% accurate and don't let that frustrate you - but once your success rate is reasonable (70% or so) , you'll feel more comfortable using them in real trading - especially now that you're familiar with the "inner works" in closing, i hope this wasn't too much, and provided what i promised - to share more about the use and the "internal" workings of these 2 indicators - and how I use them in my trading with some examples .. I will be more than happy if this post helps inspire some ideas for fellow traders, and make them a bit more successful in their trading. happy to receive comments or feedback - or thoughts from fellow traders who already played around with these indicators and would like to share their experiences. "constructive criticism" also welcome, we're all here to learn 😄 good luck and trade safe.
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by RedKTrader
8
NKLA: Chart Reading June 2* this is a pure chart reading (analysis) for NKLA and expected scenarios based on price and volume action and what the indicators tell us - has nothing to do with the fundamentals or how the business itself is doing. Daily Chart: - NKLA has accelerated in the past few days with (couple of days showing) large % moves supported by big volume (almost 2x daily avg) - NKLA has been moving within a steady channel for the past few months - in this channel, this will be the 6th attempt to break the upper channel line - indicators showing a move to the bullish side for momentum, sentiment and net volume - but that has already happened in all the prior breakout attempts - doesn't really mean a big deal Price Projections: - measured move (based on price structure) target #1 was $16 - which was hit last week. we see how the action hesitated once that target was hit - The next measured move goes up to ~ $21.6 -- that's 22% from where we closed today (Wed June 2nd) - that's our scenario #1 - is this target too far: given the recent big moves, and how NKLA accelerated towards the $16, it can take only 2 "big days" to get to that next target --- *BUT* if we look at the prior breakout attempts, that move may fail - it really depends on how the bulls act at this level, and if more buyers continue to come in more that those who are shorting or cashing out .. so scenario #2 is that NKLA goes back into the channel the good news in both scenarios, is that some action is happening - it seems many traders got stuck with NKLA and were considering it a "loser" weekly chart: - the weekly shows that the "weakness is fading" - rather than "strength is increasing" - so we're not really in bull territory yet -- may get there if the strength continues for couple more weeks - the weekly chart does a better job in showing the priori breakout attempts Active positions in NKLA will need to be watched very closely and managed carefully.. this is a very volatile landscape. good luck!
NASDAQ:NKLA
by RedKTrader
1
AAPL: What's Next May - July+I love AAPL. Many of us do. Been a while since I posted a chart reading for AAPL .. maybe since the split ? here's a quick chart reading for AAPL using the 1wk view (apologies for the crowded chart - i wanted to show all recent price channels as well as the target zones) * A new price channel is forming. that's initially a good sign. * If that channel remains valid, it may help AAPL breach the supply zone ($135 - $140) -- we can see that previous attempts to move into that zone was met by strong supply * the momentum is moving in the bull direction (UTO) - and according to v.viewer, the supply is fading. Bottom line: ============= * we're currently into a possible "buy zone" -- it seems that this is *the* dip ?? * possible upside of 10% to 15% as marked by the channel and the target zones - around 22% if we hit target #2 (Please Note: these chart readings are not trade recommendations - they are just attempts to read & analyze the chart and the indicators, and expect possible scenarios that may or may not pan out) Good luck to all.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by RedKTrader
4