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This pain is not over yet! Today was bloody with NASDAQ down 2.7% -- these are the days i don't want to look at the charts (or my broker account screen!) Chart Reading: -------------------- - the chart shows that this is still not the end of the down move or the short-term weakness - on the contrary, the channel has just been breached to the downside. - the projected measured move shows that there may still be an extended move of around -3% to the downside before the market stabilizes as bears in control - my daily chart shows market in short-term supply / bear territory with neutral to slightly negative sentiment. - 30 EMA has been a good support on the weekly -- we still have not breached that yet .. so mid-long term, still not bad. bottom line, no trades until this turbulence is over .. we just keep buckled up and await the reversal to the upside. i'll be happily surprised if i'm wrong :) stay safe everyone.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RedKTrader
6
Tutorial: How I Track a stock portfolio on TradingViewFor those of us who like to leverage the awesome charting capabilities of TradingView to visualize, analyze and track a portfolio of holdings, i wanted to share couple of ways i have been using in the past few months. I found that the ability to "chart" a portfolio adds a whole new dimension to my decision making - that looking at the portfolio in numbers on daily basis does not allow. for example, when I'm able to "chart" the portfolio, i can apply simple technical analysis tools (Moving Averages, MACD..etc) to find new "portfolio opportunities" - like for example, when the portfolio is at a top with a possible upcoming decline in value, that would be a good time to start cashing out and locking some of my unrealized profits, or to hedge by buying some Puts or selling some Covered Calls.. as in the example in the chart above. so here the ways i use to track my portfolio using TradingView. Method 1: Using a Pine script - few weeks ago i published a simple Portfolio Tracker script with details on how it can be used to set up and track a simple portfolio of 10 holdings + a cash position. please refer to the link below if you're interested in that method. Method 2: Using TradingView's Watchlist - i'd like to focus on this method in this post. there are few variations to how this can be accomplished, and i hope i can share a trick or 2 that i have been using that made this a lot easier for me 1 - the simplest way: add the "portfolio string" manually as a watchlist symbol assume i have a simple portfolio of 100 MSFT + 200 AAPL + 300 INTC along with some $10,000 cash in the account i chose to add a new symbol to my watchlist, and enter the line below - this is what i refer to as the "portfolio string": MSFT * 100 + AAPL * 200 + INTC * 300 + 10,000 and this is what you see in the chart here.. this should work well - the only issue with this method is that if my portfolio is more complex than 3-4 positions, and/or if it changes frequently due my active trading, this manual approach is less than ideal 2 - what if my portfolio is more complex than this and it changes often in that case, i would suggest to use a spreadsheet - or maybe you already maintain a sheet where you track your trades. in that sheet, construct a table like the below and enter the formulas that are shown in the "formula view" in that sheet, cell D2 , will consolidate (using the concatenation function) the individual "Position Strings" into a single "Portfolio String" you can then copy cell D2 from the Excel table, then go to TradingView, choose to add a symbol to your watchlist, and simply paste that "Portfolio String" in there.. and voila! -- adjust the number of rows as needed (add rows, and update the formula in cell D2). i tried with more than 10 positions per portfolio and it works smoothly -- note that the "Position_Str" formula is consistent for all holdings *except* for the last line -- if you're using something other than Excel, please map the functions accordingly. the below works on Excel. Formula View = what we enter in the spreadsheet --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A B C D --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Symbol Qty Position_str Portfolio_str 2 sym1 100 = A2 & "*" & B2 & "+" =CONCAT(C2:C5) 3 sym2 200 = A3 & "*" & B3 & "+" 4 sym3 300 = A4 & "*" & B4 & "+" 5 Cash 10,000 = B5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Normal Table (results) View --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A B C D --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Symbol Qty Position_str Portfolio_str 2 sym1 100 MSFT*2000+ MSFT*2000+AAPL*3000+INTC*3000+10000 3 sym2 200 AAPL*3000+ 4 sym3 300 INTC*3000+ 5 Cash 10,000 10,000 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 - My last tip here is not a separate approach - but builds on the one above - i already use a separate spreadsheet table (a trade log) to track my trades which i update on regular basis. - using the pivot table feature, i can construct a view of my "trade log" that provides what we see in Columns A and B above. - so this makes it easy to just "refresh" the pivot table once i update my trades, and the "Portfolio String" will be updated automatically for me - theni will just copy and paste it as a new symbol in my TradingView WatchList and remove the older ones. i hope some of you find these tips useful and can leverage some of this to open up that new portfolio management abilities to your trading.. Feedback and comments are welcome as usual - best of luck!
NASDAQ:MSFTEducation
by RedKTrader
34
A Quick Guide to Multi-Timeframe ScalingQuick Intro =========== Regardless of what type of trader we are, most of us will look at the same chart in different timeframes to help make the "case for a trade". The risk of doing so is that we need to understand the fundamental concept of Multi-Timeframe Scaling (let's call it MTF scaling) as we inspect the various timeframe charts of the same underlying, otherwise, we risk receiving confusing signals - that rather than helping a trade decision, will possibly hinders the decision, if not even triggering the wrong decision. This concept has possibly been published about here before - i though it won't harm to put together a quick primer / reminder if it helps some of our new fellow traders on TradingView - if this sounds interesting, please read on. What do I mean by Multi-Timeframe Scaling? ------------------------------------------------------- in my trading, and as i check if there's a good trade to make on, say TSLA- i would first look at the daily chart -- cause i'm a position trader. is there a trend forming? has there been a recent consolidation? is there a possible breakout soon ? ..etc i then "zoom-out" to a larger timeframe -- say the weekly chart. i need to see the prevailing sentiment and the "context" - this is important because even if it looks like a bottom is forming on the daily, if TSLA on the weekly shows a diminishing momentum, i would avoid making a long trade assume the larger (weekly) timeframe is favorable -- so i will then "zoom-in" to find an ideal entry - using a smaller timeframe chart - the 1hr or 15mins so what did we do here: ===================== Larger timeframe = Context and prevailing sentiment Medium timeframe = Trade Decision Shorter Timeframe = Trade Execution i will do the same for exits as well - i assume most traders have a similar "protocol" before they hit the trigger - but may use different "preferred set of timeframes" based on the type of trading -- day traders may use 15min for trading, with 1min for execution and 1 or 2Hrs for context -- swing traders may use 1hr for trading, with 10 mins for execution and 1 day for context and so on .... the problem for many traders, as they switch between the charts of various timeframes is, they will see conflicting signals .. the indicators/charts many of us use are usually not "sync'ed" - to demonstrate how this looks like, look at the chart on top - to demonstrate what happens when there's lack of indicator scaling across the timeframes, i used a 3-SMA basic system -- but the same concept applies for any indicators you use (RSI, MACD, ADX/DMI, Stochastic)....etc -- the list goes on :) -- so what's wrong here and how can it be fixed? ---------------------------------------------------------- There's nothing "really" wrong, it's just there's an element at play that we may not be aware of here - We need to get very familiar with that concept of "MTF scaling" when we switch between different TF charts - the concept is really simple, and the key is the "scale factor" the 1 day chart has 7 x 1hr bars (for stocks) -- so, for example, if i look at an SMA or EMA of length 9 on the daily chart, i need to look at the
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by RedKTrader
64
MSFT: are we ready for the next run to $250+? MSFT bulls seem to be building momentum to capture the next range. with good news acting as catalyst ($22Bn contract announced) the winds are in their favor Quick Chart Reading: ===================== the price continues to respect the established channel we're heading towards the same target zone from previous chart reading (linked below). the initial projected move is to the $252 - $254 range .. around 4% from the closing of the week, and a 10% from the low of the currently established horizontal range. from there, the ideal scenario is that the bulls can defend and maintain the new range which may take MSFT up to the $260's the reason i love this chart is how well-behaved MSFT stock moves - predictable in a good way - no emotional crazy moves :) , and the long term price growth is relatively consistent, especially when you zoom out to the weekly / monthly views.. MSFT is like money in the bank. - here's another view of MSFT - i usually inspect both these views as i trade MSFT - if i'm holding the stock, these views give good insight of when to sell Covered Calls to generate a little more out of the invested capital. Note - i mainly use trend, momentum, sentiment and Supply/Demand for my chart analysis and trading - all indicators in these views are published here in TV, with hopefully good explanation about how to use/read/interpret them - pls comment if you believe i should post more about how i use these indicators
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by RedKTrader
Quick Tutorial: Using the Strength of Movement (RedK_SoM)i recently published the Strength of Movement indicator - Wanted to take a minute to share an example of the setups i'm trying to explore with that indicator. here's the direct link as i mentioned, for a position trader watching a specific set of stocks, the opportunity to catch and ride a "quality trend" occur few times a year, maybe as few as 2 or 3 times - and when they do, and if timed well, they provide very rewarding and low risk trades - with a choice to use basic options to maximize profit - of course that depends on the trader's capital and risk tolerance. - the example i share here is for AAPL - and shows 4 such opportunities / setups since the beginning of 2019 (27 months) .. * initial chart settings: -------------------------- - to explore these setups, i preferred to look at the weekly chart, and to set the SoM to averaging length = 12 -- all other settings left as default - i also chose to combine a MACD to show momentum and the Ribbon to help visualize the trend - you can use any other indicators that you're more familiar with and trust - we'll consider only long setups since we're overall bullish on AAPL * reading the chart & finding the entries: --------------------------------------------------- - the initial signal for an incoming trend is when the SoM oscillator line crosses the zero line going up - on the chart these are marked with the green arrow up and a blue vertical line - the primary signal that the "trend has been established" is when the "SoM raw" line (light blue) hits the 100% - marked on the chart with a star * - very important: the confirmation of the setup is provided by the MACD (and the Ribbon, i look specifically at the zero-lag line of the Ribbon as it's the fastest to detect reversals). now if we're not familiar with the stock we would consider the first occurrence invalid, since the MACD is in "negative territory" and reflects only a "possible fade of current bearish move" - and not really a reversal sign - however, since this is AAPL and we're overall bullish - for us, this represents the end of the "dip" and can expect the price to continue to move up -- please be very careful here if you're trading stocks that you're not fully familiar with their behavior and expected growth trajectory * exiting the trades: ---------------------------- - the possible duration of each of these trades are marked by the blue arrow on the price chart - but that's hindsight :) - we should close the positions either on a certain target, or as the trend dies down (SoM oscillator crosses zero going down). i would rather close early and lock profit, then ride the next wave up than having to hold thru a wave down and recover - can use a zoomed-in chart (the daily, 2hr) to better time the exit * in conclusion: ------------------- - i have actually traded couple of these runs (without the SoM) and not necessarily opened or closed my positions as perfectly as in the above chart :) but now with the SoM, i hope i'm better prepared for future setup. - i hope this is useful.. please feel free to share feedback or questions. ...... and best of luck :)
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by RedKTrader
11
INTC: looking for a breakout, $70 could be nextGreat chart here for INTC - bouncing off nicely from the $60 level and breaking smoothly (and with strong momentum as shown by the UTO) thru the supply/demand "balance line" at $61.5 .. we hope to see a continuation of the move up - to be confirmed by a breakout of resistance at $63.5 - maybe today or tomorrow.. Price projection: this was a measured move of $16 from the low set in late Jan of $54 = a short term target of $70 if that move materializes let's keep watching this chart ... and see if these projections hold.
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by RedKTrader
2
TWTR: Covered Call into earnings: why & what's next?in this post, i quickly share why i love selling covered call into the earnings for stocks that i held for sometimes and i'm ready to cash out of. I sold the Feb 12 Call option with strike $65 for TWTR yesterday for $2.20 Why ? how is this a good trade? i believe selling CC into earnings is one of the lowest risk trades - it's a great weapon to add to your trade arsenal, cause we win in all scenarios .. here's the break down and the thinking behind this trade (quick notes - i'm not an options expert and i exclusively trade the 4 basic strategies -- sell/buy calls/puts -- i don't get into spreads - but there are may resources that explain covered calls in a lot more details on the web if anyone is interested) Scenario #1: TWTR closes below $65 on Friday Feb 12 if volatility (IV) is strong for the option ahead of earnings, which is usually the case for stocks like TWTR (and most other social media and tech companies), the option premium will reflect a higher extrensic value (vega) - once the earnings resuts are out, volatility drops, causing the premium to "go back to normal" price. for the sell side, that means easy profit (premium to keep). in our case here, the premium for the Feb 12 $65 call was $2.2 (IV was ~180% when i opened the position) - if volatility comes down today to ~40%, the call option maybe worth $0.5 -- and with only 3 days to expiry, even that $0.5 would eventually drop to zero at expiry (provided TWTR remains below $65) - we end up keeping both the full $2.20 premium and the stock Scenario #2: TWTR closes above $65 on Friday we will get assigned and the stock is "called" away at the strike price $65 - keeping the call premium of $2.20 since we already had a good run with TWTR (see the breakeven / BE marked on the chart) and were ready to close the position at current price level ~$60, getting $67.20 is even a better deal. Scenario #3: TWTR drops down after the earnings for any reason (was not expected) The call price will drop and we will close it for profit and still continue to hold the stock - which is not a bad thing since we originally think TWTR is on a good path in future. ** note: TWTR is hovering around the $62 in after-hours/pre-market after strong earnings. now for the price projection: the projection for the current move for TWTR is $16 from the mid-Jan base of ~ $46 which takes us to around the $62 price level (+/- couple of $$) - then the price may ease up back to the mid $50's (the nearest supply/demand "balance level") before moving up again (this is also why i thought the $65 strike with 3 days to expiry was the best choice) the UTO (lower indicator) on the daily chart is reaching 100% -- showing that this is a possible top for the price and supporting a new wave of consolidation at that level - so seems to support our projection. if our covered call gets assigned, we can then look for another opportunity (an upcoming dip) for re-entry to catch the next move. we remain bullish overall on TWTR. this is my 4th covered call trade in this earning season and it's a great way to add to our PnL for stocks that we already hold, especially those positions we were looking at closing or rotating out of. this is a basic option strategy that is easy to learn and follow, with an opportunity to repeat every earnings - as rewarding as dividends if not more :) - so i hope it works for other fellow traders here and i hope i managed to explain it well . let me know in your comments.
NYSE:TWTRLong
by RedKTrader
2
GILD is soooo frustrating ..... :(I don't know what's the deal with GILD and it's driving me crazy - the price keeps teasing my breakeven :) -- only to bounce back down - i was finally getting optimistic, thinking the curse have been lifted.. (see linked post) - not so sure now - the sentiment went back into negative territory, so did the short term momentum (check the UTO indicator) - Buy/Sell is in the "supply" zone (V.Viewer) -- or rather neutral with "no conviction"? -- we're in limbo mode with GILD for so long now. i wanted to try and sell some Covered Call against my long position into the earnings, and leverage the (earning's) volatility to improve my BE - i can't even get a good price to sell at a strike equal to or slightly above my BE .... also volatility is so low for "earning times" - so no room to have a good play there.. Grrrrr!!! should i give it more time or just give up on it ? and close it at a loss .. now i see couple of good recent moves in what seems to be attempts to finally bottom and break up - but it's just taking tooo long ! any thoughts from GILD experts?
NASDAQ:GILDLong
by RedKTrader
12
MSFT: boring in a good way - breaking out?I like MSFT and it's been a while since i posted a chart reading / projection - there was no major price actions - and i agree MSFT is becoming "boring" - especially when compared to the TSLAs and NIOs of the market - and i mean that in the good way - it's boring = a good opportunity for the investor to buy and hold, and make slow (but sure) growth while having little risk on the position. MSFT is in the top 2 stocks in my portfolio for that reason. What the charts say: i believe the price move this week has potential to break out - and my reasons are 1 - the momentum is accumulating (see the upward white arrow on the UTO) - while the price is confined in a range. that's a sign of consolidation and the price is getting ready to make a move upward 2 - we have seen the same pattern before. MSFT did almost the same back in 2018 - see how similar these 2 areas marked in the red blocks are in the monthly chart - price moves up in a well-defined channel, then spends time in a range while it consolidates and moves into strong hands, then news and earnings comes to propel a new move with relatively stronger volume 3 - when you zoom out the price chart (monthly view) - MSFT follows a well-defined channel - the center line of that channel plays an important roles and we're now below that line for an extended time Is there a Price Projection from the chart? - our next projection - if we can break out the $226 line - is to get into the $250-$260 range - the upcoming earnings (for MSFT's fiscal half results) next week may be the catalyst we're waiting for. the market should receive good news about the strong gaming console sales for the holiday season, as well as continuing business growth on the cloud and productivity - and it's possible we get a positive reaction this time (compared to the 3 prior earnings). (i am long MSFT) good luck.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by RedKTrader
AAPL: Apple may be on the moveAAPL is on an attempt for a breakout above $124 - $125 with renewed positive sentiment and relatively strong momentum that started on Nov 24 -- so accumulating for couple of weeks now i have marked the next 2 price projections - if AAPL can break the $124 and stay above that price level, our projected next stop would be $130-$131, then from there, a possible bullish scenario may take us to $158 around the time for next earnings in Jan - this gives an upside of around 25% (and yes, it takes AAPL's market cap up to ~2.5T) the weekly view supports this scenario - my only issue on the weekly chart is, that while the momentum looks strong, the "prevailing sentiment" is not yet bullish enough (the green area marked by the yellow circle on the UTO) - that may mean that the expected move still needs to consolidate for few more days (maybe more) to collect enough steam. Note that AAPL had a lot of positive news (new and exciting products) recently and is expecting a strong quarter that may be further helped by the holiday shopping - also that AAPL has yet to move above the split price level (was $124.8) Disclaimer: I am long AAPL - This is just a possible scenario with mathematically calculated projections - no one can predict the future - please trade carefully and adjust to your risk tolerance. feel free to share thoughts.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by RedKTrader
GILD: will it finally break the curse?GILD seems to be finally attempting to make a serious up move and breaking back into the $60's we've been holding this long position for a while, and was about to declare it a loser and close on a loss (which i totally hate!!), given the many signs of weakness GILD showed (yellow arrows), even when there was reasons to show strength (Remdesivir used on POTUS, strong market days, positive earnings ...etc) - if you have been watching GILD in the past few weeks, i'm sure you can remember these events. it was as if the market is working against GILD - every time there was some strength, sellers will just pile on it and bring the price down again! GILD went all the way down to the 2013 price levels. What changed? now for the first time we see some *positive momentum* coupled with bullish sentiment that has been up for 2 whole weeks (marked with yellow circle on the UTO on the daily) - then a relatively successful attempt today to break the down trend (been on since May) and break out from what seems to be a bottom formation What's next? for confirmation of a reversal to the upside, we need to see a close above $62, and the bulls to defend that range with commitment (price doesn't go back below $60) and drive the price up into the safe zone -- and maybe get some uptrend ?-- for me this is the last chance holding a loser - so i'm watching closely. Let me know your views.
NASDAQ:GILDLong
by RedKTrader
1
Uber: Breaking out to a new rangeUber stands to benefit from possible recovery with positive vaccine news after hitting our previous projection, yesterday Uber broke out into a new price range and on good volume - our next projection based on price structure and volatility is a measured move of ~$13 from a base of $46.5 -- takes us to $59.5 the confirmation we need is that with a pull back, Uber bulls manage to keep the stock above support at $51.50 to $52 -- i have marked the possible path in white - we'll see. the weekly view supports this scenario with positive sentiment and an expanding buying pressure.
NYSE:UBERLong
by RedKTrader
Uber: get ready for an exciting ride!UBER has been pushing for a breakout for sometime now. check out our previous posts linked below. this week had couple of great signs (of strength) - the reaction to the California law suit and the reaction to qtrly earnings - but even before that, price action indicated the persistence of UBER bulls and the "drive" to move upward. what the chart tells us? we have a positive momentum that is still building (weekly) and a good buy pressure/demand - this set up is more for the mid to long term (6 months+) , and as long as UBER bulls can defend the new price range they just gained, and stay above $40 we're looking at a possible continuation to the upside. if the move up materializes, our next target is $47 then a calculated projection to the $53 - $55 range. a possible ~23% upside. (visit this post in future and use the "Load New Bars" tool to see how accurate were these projections) Note: we need to be extra cautious with trading these days - everyone is looking at riding the next "Zoom" with a lot of Pump & Dump going on - and the market is in a volatile phase - please manage your risk accordingly! best of luck, ----------------------- How do i read this chart setup we look at the price action (top chart) and recent key S/R price levels, plus the insights from 3 key elements: momentum, sentiment and buy/sell pressure - the calculated short-term price momentum is shown by the UTO blue/amber line - the long term sentiment is represented by the UTO Green/Red area graph - the demand/supply pressure is expressed by the v.viewer green/red area graph - let's call these "the context" How do i trade this chart setup - the Basic rule: nothing can predict what happens tomorrow - but if no external catalysts interfere, it's *highly probable* that a price move with strong momentum that's in alignment with the broader context (sentiment and buy/sell pressure) would continue in the same direction (e.g., a breakout).
NYSE:UBERLong
by RedKTrader
2
INTC: Possible Long scenario for October This is a quick analysis for INTC for the coming period (October) - and a possible scenario that may pan out in favorable conditions The reason i'm looking at INTC is because i entered long right before the last earnings. The market had a very negative reaction to INTC's earnings announcement regarding product delay - and the stock lost almost 17% next day - so we're now left with a losing position how to repair if you trust the stock for the long term (i do for INTC), then an easy strategy to repair the position is to average down the cost then sell Out of the Money Covered Call against the shares -and basically try to break even or even capture some small profit. so i did add to the position and you can see my final avg cost price on the chart - before i sell the CC (was looking at the $56 strike for Nov), i thought to make another round of analysis of possible price projection for next few weeks. the chart looks bullish - after the earnings drop, INTC went thru 2 phases 1 - against a bearish sentiment, INTC held a price range and the sell-off started to reverse (interesting!) 2 - starting around Aug 11, a "buy pressure" started to build up with a positive reaction from the stock (price moving up to the "next range") - also both momentum and sentiment reversed to positive this view shows a possibility of an incoming breakout - which would be confirmed if INTC can break the $53 level, then re-test then moves up - my next projection would be to the $57 level The weekly chart seems to support this scenario - and if that's the case, selling the covered call would be a mistake, at least not now with a move up expected - and we should just hold the long for now and re-evaluate in couple of weeks, given how volatile the market is these days. this is just a quick view of one possible scenario - your view may differ from mine and that's totally fine, and the actual scenario that pans out may be totally different too - so let's kep an eye on this :) good luck! ----------------------- How do i read this chart setup we look at the price action (top chart) and recent key S/R price levels, plus the insights from 3 key elements: momentum, sentiment and buy/sell pressure - the calculated short-term price momentum is shown by the UTO blue/amber line - the long term sentiment is represented by the UTO Green/Red area graph - the demand/supply pressure is expressed by the v.viewer green/red area graph - let's call these "the context" How do i trade this chart setup - the Basic rule: nothing can predict what happens tomorrow - but if no external catalysts interfere, it's *highly probable* that a price move with strong momentum that's in alignment with the broader context (sentiment and buy/sell pressure) would continue in the same direction (e.g., a breakout).
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by RedKTrader
2
Uber: another wave up comingThe previous price projection was bulls-eye accurate. Uber hit the $38.5 level and switched downward. i didn't close the long there -- there's really little use of having a good projection if we don't act on it, right : ) ? V.Viewer tells us the next balance point if another move up is to happen, is somewhere between the 2 red lines $34.8 to $35.6'ish -- which is also where the 30MA on a 4hr would be. the chart tells us that if UBER can successfully overcome that zone, there's a possibility of continuation up. what does the daily chart tell us? the 1D chart looks good - especially with today' action - there's bullish long term sentiment - so the winds can carry the next move forward - and the weakness in the short-term momentum is kind of declining, switching into strength conclusion: ------------- not closing the long now and will hold - will share next projection once we have a reliable formation. feel free to share thoughts if you think otherwise. ----------------------- How do i read this chart setup we look at the price action (top chart) and recent key S/R price levels, plus the insights from 3 key elements: momentum, sentiment and buy/sell pressure - the calculated short-term price momentum is shown by the UTO blue/amber line - the long term sentiment is represented by the UTO Green/Red area graph - the demand/supply pressure is expressed by the v.viewer green/red area graph - let's call these "the context" How do i trade this chart setup - the Basic rule: nothing can predict what happens tomorrow - but if no external catalysts interfere, it's *highly probable* that a price move with strong momentum that's in alignment with the broader context (sentiment and buy/sell pressure) would continue in the same direction (e.g., a breakout).
NYSE:UBERLong
by RedKTrader
2
TSLA: recovering to split-level. Would it move up from here?today TSLA recovered from the post-split drop - hit and slightly exceeded the split price ($442.7) and that's a good sign so far. Not clear where we go from here but if we can maintain that momentum (scenario 1), it's possible TSLA's price action continues to respect the channel that's been formed since last April (see chart) even with prices now on split-adjusted basis. Extending that channel into the next few weeks can give us some indication where the price may be - the other scenario (scenario 2) to expect is a sideways move similar to what happened in May after the recovery from the COVID drop. adding a zoomed-in view for better clarity - still using the 1D i would say the retail excitement (with strong market makers' push) will continue to provide upside for the longs. so my money is on scenario 1 ... (that's mid/long term) will hold the long position for now. pls stay safe and trade wisely. IMHO, short term trading a stock like TSLA is super risky. ----------------------- How do i read this chart setup we look at the price action (top chart) and recent key S/R price levels, plus the insights from 3 key elements: momentum, sentiment and buy/sell pressure - the calculated short-term price momentum is shown by the UTO blue/amber line - the long term sentiment is represented by the UTO Green/Red area graph - the demand/supply pressure is expressed by the v.viewer green/red area graph - let's call these "the context" How do i trade this chart setup - the Basic rule: nothing can predict what happens tomorrow - but if no external catalysts interfere, it's *highly probable* that a price move with strong momentum that's in alignment with the broader context (sentiment and buy/sell pressure) would continue in the same direction (e.g., a breakout).
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by RedKTrader
UBER: Enters target zone - with possible upsidetoday or tomorrow we possibly hit target with UBER reaching $38 - one of the good times when projection works well .. see post from 2-3 weeks ago. there's great learning here, that even with the negative pressure across the market last week, the momentum in UBER still managed to survive. we'll hold, since we see a strong momentum that shows possible upside to cross the $40 and long term strength in the stock share your views if you have been riding this wave with me ;) and best of luck ----------------------- How do i read this chart setup we look at the price action (top chart) and recent key S/R price levels, plus the insights from 3 key elements: momentum, sentiment and buy/sell pressure - the calculated short-term price momentum is shown by the UTO blue/amber line - the long term sentiment is represented by the UTO Green/Red area graph - the demand/supply pressure is expressed by the v.viewer green/red area graph - let's call these "the context" How do i trade this chart setup - the Basic rule: nothing can predict what happens tomorrow - but if no external catalysts interfere, it's *highly probable* that a price move with strong momentum that's in alignment with the broader context (sentiment and buy/sell pressure) would continue in the same direction (e.g., a breakout).
NYSE:UBER
by RedKTrader
TWTR: Quality breakout ?Today's breakout was strong and "unchallenged" - comes with a backdrop of strong demand (v.viewer) and bullish sentiment (green area in UTO) it's a clear comparison versus the 2 prior breakout attempts (yellow circles) where both attempts received headwind from sellers (long wicks in both bars) which didn't happen this time. fingers crossed for the next 2 sessions :) this is a good sign for long positions - and we can expect - after a positive confirmation that we need to see - a strong run to follow to the upside. pls stay safe and good luck.
NYSE:TWTRLong
by RedKTrader
2
AAPL: welcome to post-split - should i buy now ? AAPL opens tomorrow (Aug 31) to the new post-split price, based on Friday's closing, would be around $124.81 -- maybe a gap up or down from there. and what a run in the last 3 weeks!! the excitement around the split caused the stock to breach a channel that's been established in early April - and accelerate higher, until the last week where we saw some profit taking. but still even this didn't cause a significant drop in the price - my optimistic expectations were to split at $460 (post-split = $115), with an upper range of $125 - at one point in time we hit a high of $515 but that was not sustained. i hope some fellow TV traders managed to capture some of that awesome run. This one was a new BP for me :) what do we expect now that the split-run is over? to answer that let's zoom-in to the 2HR chart - we see volume going into supply mode, however the price kept in a range / channel - we also see momentum going into negative zone - but the sentiment is almost at a balance (zero) - this supports a possible scenario of consolidation - and it may take some time for AAPL to build some positive momentum again - no one can tell how long, cause now with the stock price at a more affordable level (to both retail traders and some fund managers, also option prices are attractive), demand can come in at any time. - AAPL continues to be a strong tech player from fundamentals standpoint - the catalysts of work/learn-from-home and upcoming 5G + services are still all in play. so AAPL continues to be considered a strong portfolio component for both major & retail investors. - but can it grow beyond $2T ? i don't see a reason why it can't -- did we believe when it hit the 1T that it will hit 2? - The big question, should i buy (now)? i would wait for the next breakout above the $125 -- and that's one scenario, the other scenario, given the long term trend and expected growth, is to start scaling in if the price goes down - the $110 to $115 ($440 to $460 pre-split) held well in the past so expect support there if some distribution takes place - i'm leaning more towards an accumulation in the next 2-3 weeks and a move up. - there's a remote possibility to come back and fill the earnings gap - which takes the stock all the way down to $95 - remote possibility - and if that happens - i will definitely buy more please stay safe, and do your own research before trading - please do not take any one's advice (including me) about where to put your money. Quick Note: if you follow my posts, you may see i use the Ultimate Trader Oscillator (UTO) in my trading set up - it is based on "bar scoring" and is published here in TV - if anyone is interested to learn more about how the bar scoring technique works and why i started using it in my trading vs classic indicators (like RSI and ADX) pls let me know - i may post some tutorials if there's demand..
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by RedKTrader
5
SNAP updatewe cashed out half our long position in SNAP and kept a half for a possible upside. i was going to close the remaining position but checking the chart - it seems i'll hold for now. here's why. - this week started bad for SNAP with a relatively big drop, the good news is, there was no follow thru from sellers and bulls took over the rest of the week with 4 positive (UTO barscore) days - also on the daily chart, SNAP is attempting to breach out of the declining channel and trade within a range - a good sign that can point to a possible breakout if we get enough demand coming in. - the weekly chart shows an end of a distribution cycle, and a possible return to demand mode. it is possible to expect a similar breakout to what happened in November 2019 (see weekly chart) Price projection: i don't have a target in mind at this time - maybe in the next update. the current decision based on this week's analysis is to hold instead of completely closing - i'll be happy if we get to the IPO level and see what happens next.
NYSE:SNAPLong
by RedKTrader
UBER: update on long positionQuick update on where we are with UBER - we still hold the long position through the drop that happened earlier in August on the tail of the negative news regarding legal issues - which interrupted a possible breakout - UBER is attempting another breakout with renewed demand and bullish sentiment according to the V.Viewer and the UTO -- the UTO is also showing a positive momentum to the upside - UBER today entered the make-or-break zone - the next few days will determine if the current breakout attempt will succeed - if it does, we can look potentially at hitting the $37 to $39 range - the breakout needs to be confirmed by a "hook" - a bounce up off that resistance zone on the chart - the weekly (not shown here) is in line, showing an end of a bearish cycle and a possible start of a new bullish wave up keeping the long position open for now.
NYSE:UBERLong
by RedKTrader
2
AAPL: Analysis of past splits and the game plani hope this post can help answer some of the many questions around trading the AAPL split, and help validate the game plan for the next 2-4 weeks. we will use a quick analysis of the past 2 splits for AAPL, - on the left, the 2-for-1 split from Feb 2005 with black background - on the right, the 7-for-1 split from June 2014 with dark blue background (BTW, there's a great FAQ on Apple's Investor's web site about the stock split, make sure you check it out, easy to google :) ) everything else on both charts is kept the same (MA's, indicators) to make the comparison possible and support the analysis Observations: -------------------------- - in both splits, a strong "split run" happens as soon as the split is announced. those who traded tech splits before would possibly have already positioned themselves with some long positions couple of weeks ago. should i buy more now? (we're 5 days from the ex-date), honestly i wouldn't do it. i would rather wait for after the split for the next wave up to get in - expect volatility to be super high this week - in both splits, a strong "take profit" / distribution phase occured within the week after the split - which makes sense - some traders wanted to cash out after the run up - in both splits, this caused AAPL to get into "sell" mode (see the yellow boxes and the Volume Viewer going into red) - AAPL was more exciting in 2014 (possibly due to strong smart phone market share back then) compared to 2005 -- so the distribution didn't last long, the stock lost only 3-5% of value then picked up again - in 2005, that was not the case and AAPL waited almost 6 months to pick up again and make a meaningful breakout (let's keep this in mind as we try to "read" what may happen this time in 2020, with the market in what seems to be a "euphoric" mode) my conclusion ----------------- - with these 2 charts as guide, we can draw our game plan for how to manage our AAPL short-term and mid/long-term positions - i have both a short term (Sept 440 calls, monthlies) and a long term (stock) in AAPL. both positions added as soon as the split was announced (see the linked posts) - i will need to close the calls as close to the split ex-date or soon after (so early next week) - and won't hold them longer than that - volatility will be highest until the ex-date boosting the option price, then drop once the split occurs and the new prices are in effect (August 31). - will hold the stock - may add if price goes down after the split - these are long term holdings -- but i'm going to be super cautious even there as i feel the market has accelerated in an unsustainable way - and i started to believe a big correction is due in the near future. - your "game plan" may be different, and there are many other ways to play the upcoming action - in call cases, i do strongly recommend you do some research and adjust to your trading style and tolerance. hope some find this analysis useful (feel free to comment and let me know) - and i hope many TV traders managed to capitalize on this exciting opportunity best of luck!
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by RedKTrader
5