TSLA; this is where we split?previous price projection on TSLA was spot on (check link below then use the "Load New Bars" tool). it was a bit "scary" that a projection can be *that accurate* :)
what is your split price target?
-----------------------------------------
i get a feel TSLA will split at the current price range (the green box) - maybe because after runs like this in the past, TSLA took time to consolidate and we see decreasing demand on the V.Viewer (there's bearish diversion with price)
if we split here i will still be happy - this is not a bad place - thing is, a post-split price of $360 to $400 i s still a high price - so maybe we see some re-consolidation after the split happens in September and into October -- so our stops need to be tight or find a way to hedge long positions
best of luck to all!
Redk
AAPL: Split target and 2 week projectionwhat's your target price for the split?
this is a very exciting time for position traders watching the upcoming split - especially those of us who participated in past tech-stock splits and how rewarding these were (late 90's anyone? ) -- we also know some fund managers are awaiting the split to happen to start loading up AAPL at the new price.
here'e my target projection for the split and the next 2 weeks - apologies for the clutter on the chart - this is my working "whiteboard" :)
the short version, we look at a split to occur somewhere between $115 to $125, given the current price action, the supply/demand profile, and the projected moves in the next week or so - the green box is ideally where we want to be - if all goes as expected, this whole chart should get automatically scaled (all chart elements divided by 4) when the split happens.
-- i think this is more of an aspiration scenario than a projection :) -- we have a long stock position to hold (long term) for after the split - and a short-term 18Sep440 Calls to take thru the split target to close wk1 September --
let's keep watching
PINS: Possible breakout to $40 ?on the daily, PINS looks ready to trigger a new wave into the demand mode after consolidation - we look at a possible breakout to >$40 if PINS can breach thru the upper red resistance line -- the momentum (expressed by the UTO) and supply/demand volume (v.viewer) are lining up - with a backdrop of a slightly increasing positive sentiment.
would be great if this scenario pans out - there's always a possibility of turbulence.
we're still long PINS. will keep holding for now.
TSLA: can it pull another run > $1,800?a bullish run to a safe zone above $1,760 doesn't seem too far-fetched - especially that the daily view supports it.
TSLA pulled a 13% up day with the excitement around the 5-1 split - and that day pulled it out of the supply into the demand mode - a projection using a similar move to the prior run end of June/wk1 July shows a possibility of breaking into the $1,800 territory even before the split - and there will be a lot of hyping-up of the price in the next few days if the market supports it (with "green" days)
note: i finally FOMO'ed into TSLA with a small long position that i plan to hold for after the split.
AAPL: attempts to escape gravity at $443check out this view on the 30min chart
AAPL is in the 3rd attempt to breach resistance at $443 (check the white markers) - looking at the momentum, we have 2 strong 30min bars (hi-score per the UTO) - but very light buying pressure.. it's as if the price is pegged to that range $437 to $443 .. although the bulls managed to push the low slightly up yesterday
possible short-term scenario: ultimately we may expect an escape into a new range ($443 to $448 or so) - with a breach that re-tests the $443 (a hook) and confirms solid support there -- then a move up. we can't tell how far that move is ahead of the split but some folks would also buy ahead of the dividends ex-date .. this is as exciting as watching a game of chess :)
great to get to $460-$480 and split to $115-$120 :) -- but really that's all guess-work for now -- no one can tell the future. Please stay safe!
MSFT: New All-Time-High with good upside (projection)Market reaction for the last earnings wasn't that positive, but today the move was strong and showed some bullish commitment and supported with large volume - don't believe that's only because of the new around TikTok but it may have helped.
we're in all time high above $217 - and if the bulls can maintain that momentum (let's see reactions tomorrow and rest of week), we may project an upside of around 16% -- that takes MSFT to the range $250 to $255 before end of Q3 -- but that scenario is a very optimistic one and there's always the risk of headwind during these dynamic times.
overall MSFT has been a great stock to own, and continues to be - and still show continuing growth potential - rewarding for the patient (position) traders.
AAPL: what happens next?Sharing an updated chart and will start with the conclusion first - i'm long AAPL and will add to the position before the split - in an attempt to capitalize on what i consider to be a rare investment opportunity that happens maybe once every few years.
- AAPL has delivered awesome earnings for the June quarter, in spite of the COVID situation and the store closings, expected low device sales, ..etc -- not only that, but the numbers exceeded expectations, sometimes by a big % (like the case with iPad sales) across all business divisions
- the stock delivered around 76% growth in 4 months (April, May, June, July). an average of 19% per month -- some can claim that it was a case of a strong stock recovering from a big dip - however, this growth can be expected to benefit from the excitement around the upcoming split.
- to put this in more perspective,
-- the excitement: on friday - the day after the earnings, in the last 90 mins before market close, the stock jumped from 412 to 425 - there was 10m stocks traded in the last 30mins only, that's $4B worth of trades -
- the split effect: the previous 7-to-1 split in 2014 generated a growth of ~30% within 6 month surrounding the split. the reason i say surrounding, is because in reality, the stock starts to move up as soon as the split announcement is made - check the chart here
- AAPL has more exciting stuff coming with the expansion in the services business, wearables and all the big 5G motion-- there's more to contribute to the business growth for couple more years at the least.
- IMHO, the best way to trade AAPL is to buy and hold -- buy now and hold till after the split -- and not miss that opportunity -- and i recommend to avoid *any shorts* of such a growth stock.
good luck and stay safe! Please do your research before taking any recommendations for your trades.
AAPL: Waiting for a reason & directionthere are tons of analysis on AAPL ahead of the earnings call - and both a bullish and a bearish cases are justifiable. While the daily view shows that AAPL dropped from the well-defined channel and even gave a bearish signal (see below), the hourly view reveals that it's in fact getting stuck in a channel with some positive sentiment in the background - which is not enough to break the range its stuck in. but there's also not enough selling pressure to push it down and fill the gap-up from yesterday ..
overall, this is a situation of "no-decision" - no one can tell how the market will react to whatever the earnings outcome will be .. all scenarios possible and as we saw with other tech players, good earnings don't necessarily mean a move up
- we're in limbo waiting for a kick in either directions - i continue to remain bullish for the long term
TWTR: up to $40 or Sideways?interesting pattern is shaping up on TWTR daily chart -- this is the 7th "saw tooth" since the lows in March - and keeping within an almost perfect channel.
- TWTR already facing headwinds - for a bull scenario to unfold (hit $40 in wk1 July), TWTR has to breach 2 important resistance levels and make the same move as before - but there's also an important confluence / decision area ahead - marked by the yellow circle.
- in today trading (Wednesday) TWTR was clearly undecided on a direction while other tech stocks performed relatively bullish .
-
- the other possible scenario is that the headwinds prove to be too strong and TWTR goes into sideways - get some consolidation and gather momentum before moving up - maybe until the next quarterly earnings .
the next 2 trading days will possibly provide clues or confirmation on which scenario to unfold.
UBER: Long but still riskythis is a quick update from previous linked post. the drop in the past 2 days presented an opportunity to improve break-even price - although the price action today and the momentum profile supports a case for "long" - i'd consider UBER to be risky until it moves beyond the safe zone on the chart - so watching closely.
the price targets are added to the chart - timeframe is to hold until Q4 and maybe beyond - if a breakout scenario is confirmed.
UBER: Next on the watch listThis is a promising chart so i'll move UBER to the top of the watch list - we like stocks that are coming back from a sell into buy mode - we see this in UBER on both the daily and the weekly charts
also UBER has not fully recovered to the pre-COVID levels like other stocks - leaving a good upside of ~18% (target #1) to ~28% (target #2)
i like a quick dip back to the $32.5 for entry (with the hook that seems to be forming)
from the very "basic fundamentals" standpoint, UBER is a major disruptor - and the business hasn't even started to reap some of the potential it deserves .. it may be the next big mover -- let's keep watching it closely.
SNAP: at the "make or break" level i was going to close my long SNAP - but on a second look, we're at the critical level from all the way back to the 2017 IPO times .. marked with the red dotted line @ $23.3 ' ish
the chart shows some anxious sellers (non-believers 😊 ?) who preferred to bail as soon as SNAP hit the > $24 levels - but then we saw no follow thru - so in my view, there's a good chance the demand / bulls takes over - and we should get the result of that really soon.
i may be wrong - but if that happens and the longs manage to push above the safety level $24.10, SNAP may be on to a nice breakout and new highs.
will hold the position for now.
QCOM: Expect the bulls to win the $92.0the bulls have been very persistent with QCOM. it took more than 4 attempts to break the $81 and the $89.
next we should expect to breach the $92, maybe today by market close (that would be great), maybe Monday? we have good tail wind and positive/green sentiment - but the current short term move is not yet a fully formed uptrend (on the 1hr and Renko views)
let's keep watching. Projected target of $98 by Wk4 July still holds so far.
thoughts?
MSFT: favorable winds & next projected targetMSFT saw a smooth and easy push thru the resistance range after the market weakness last week - and with reasonable demand. we can expect "favorable winds" to continue in the short term, and new ATH's !!
My estimate for the current move is $14.5 from the reversal level @ ~ $195. so our next target is somewhere around the $209.5 level - remember, no one can tell the future :)
this is the earnings month where MSFT reports not only the quarter (fiscal Q4) but also the full fiscal year results - so caution is critical especially if trading options around the earnings.
the safest play (IMHO) is to just buy and hold MSFT for the long term. if we time our entry well then hopefully the results will be rewarding.
MSFT: Need to close above $198-198.5 to prove bullishnessthis is a bit of a different perspective using Renko 1hr/$0.5 blocks
it shows a possible bullish convergence between price and both seller power & supply/demand on the short term, but to confirm, MSFT should close the week above the resistance band at $198 - $198.5 -- else opens with a gap above that level on Monday -- if neither of these scenarios happen, we may expect some weakness next week ..as the Q4 earnings approach in July.
added below the normal 1hr/candle view for comparison
Let's keep an eye on the upcoming moves.
TWTR: was due for some consolidation anyways - possible scenariohere's my expectations for this move - it's possible TWTR eases up to the $28.3 - $29.3 range, then from there continues the move up
not expecting the current news to hurt TWTR that much - there are much bigger forces at play to drive the stock price - and in my view it's mostly large investors dictating how this plays out.
MSFT: breakout to $190 ? 3rd time is a charmhere's a quick analysis of 5 trading weeks of MSFT using the 4h resolution
- using our VViewer to inspect the estimated supply & demand
1. last Friday, MSFT made the 3rd attempt to break above the $187-$188 resistance and go into a new ATH
2. according to the chart, this was the first time it did this with determination (increasing demand) - the past 2 attempts had diminishing demand as VViewer shows
so what to expect? if the sentiment doesn't change over the weekend for some reason (news?), we may expect a breakout above $188 and MSFT to establish a new range around the $190. will come back and update price levels and projection if that happens
Let's watch how this move unfolds on Monday - stay safe and good luck !
can INTC get to $68 in mid-July?the chart shows a possible scenario if INTC can maintain the gains it made this week, getting into a new range - big part of that depends on what happen at the open next Monday - so far we see this move above the $63.5 has some demand & positive sentiment behind it, which sends an optimistic signal that it may hold to that new range.
the problem with INTC is it's too heavy to move and the stock is not seen as "exciting" any more.. but that's not totally bad for value investors who are in for the long game.
the $68 mark represents a 7% to 8% from the lows of this new range - let's keep in mind, the $68 is the pre-COVID range and the prior ATH, which most other tech stocks are already coming back to.