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Referendum

We are preparing for European elections & referendum in the UKToday, we shall consider important topics, near future and opportunities. Elections to the European Parliament will be held in Europe this week. (Elections will be held in 28 countries from May 23 to 26, 2019, 751 members will be elected. Those elected people will represent more than 512 million Europeans, which makes these elections the largest transnational elections in history.) The event is quite dangerous for the euro buyers. The fact is that the victory of the euro “skeptics” might cause difficulties in adopting the EU budget. And the Italian populists, with their plans to violate the EU budget deficit requirements, do not contribute to the faith growth in the bright future of the euro. Another potential victim of election results could be the pound. It is all about the attention that has been focused on internal political squabbles and negotiations in the UK. There are two sides in Brexit process, they are the UK and the EU. However, the EU could not make a compromise and then there will be no agreement at all. And there will be a “rigid” Brexit. In this light, we continue to remind you of the risks incising working in pound pairs, especially when it comes to buying pounds. Confirming our thesis about how is everything uncertain over the pound and Brexit, we cannot but note that British Prime Minister Theresa May will invite members of the House of Commons of the British Parliament to hold a new Brexit referendum. May wants to propose to British to decide, on their own, whether to approve her version of the deal or not, following the example of the majority of parliamentarians who have repeatedly voted against, or to abandon the idea of “divorce” altogether. Pound after the appearance of this news soared by a hundred points, but then returned to the original. (in chronological order of publication) Inflation statistics from the UK, data on retail sales in Canada, as well as the text of the minutes of the last FOMC Fed meeting publication, are the most interesting events. We note that recently the Canadian dollar has strengthened in the foreign exchange market. This is due to news that the US will soon cancel duties on steel and aluminum from Canada and Mexico. That is, the attitude of the markets towards the Canadian dollar is positive. So, the positive statistics on retail sales will definitely give an upward momentum to the currency of Canada. Recall that this week we recommend looking for points for buying of the Canadian dollar. Our trading positions for today are as follows: we will look for points for buying of the euro against the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen.
by Trade24Fx
EUR/USD slips on Catalan referendumMorning outlook - EUR/USD slips on Catalan referendum In line with expectations, the currency exchange rate managed to break to the top, crossing the 100-hour SMA plus another resistance level near 1.1810. During the two-day surge the pair even formed a little ascending channel. But due to referendum on independence in Catalonia the Euro lost 0.3% against the Dollar and fell out of the channel. The fact that now the pair is located below a combination of the 55- and 100-hour SMAs, suggests that might continue to the move to the bottom. The downfall might be additionally spurred by the official comments from the EU, Catalan and Spanish governments through the day. However, this event is unlikely to change the general scenario, according to which the rate is expected to continue to climb to the top after bouncing off from the 100% Fibo at 1.1715.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
This is what you need to know about EURUSD this weekEURUSD is in focus this week with the Italian referendum and the monthly ECB meeting. Here's a brief list of what we see in EURUSD chart: 1. EURUSD is still inside a weekly trading range (1.05-1.114). Last week the bottom of the range held as support. 2. 1.05 is also the completion zone of a monthly bullish AB=CD pattern. 3. Inside the range we have two bullish patterns - AB=CD and Gartley. 4. 1.08 and 1.1 are the two short term target zones in case of a bullish move. 5. In case of a bearish breakdown - EURUSD can hit parity or 0.9 (completion of a bearish Bat) Point number 5 obviously will become relevant in case of an extreme bearish move but considering the fact that EURUSD has been trading inside a weekly range for about 2 years (!) I expect the next move to be a significant one. In a bearish breakdown scenario, EURUSD can definitely hit parity ... and below. I tend towards the bullish side here but we will have to wait and see how the markets will react to the Italian vote Read more about the Euro and other trading scenarios in the Weekly Markets Analysis - Link in signature
by themarketzone
GBP/USD - IMPACT OF THE EU REFERENDUMOn the monthly chart above i have posted key points in previous years where the pound has taken a dive against the dollar. August 2008, the recession hits, the value of the pound drops from nearly 2.00000 to 1.35300 in 6 months. August 2012, the economy enters a double-dip recession after two consecutive quarters of contraction in the economy. Now, late June 2016 following the UK's decision to vote to leave the EU we have seen the value of GBP plummet, a 1700 pip loss in one day, reaching lows last seen in 1985. During this time of uncertainty and turmoil it is hard to see the pound recovering any of its value in the near future. I see the UK economy potentially entering another recession after the news of yesterday. Furthermore, due to this assumption, i have projected GBP to fall to the levels of 1.25000 - 1.20000 in the upcoming months. Let me know what you think in the comments below.
Short
by MitchellShoesmith
GBPUSD - Brexit pendingWill be taking a long position on GBP/USD based on the following reasons: - Bullish hammer candle on Weekly TF. - Rejection of 0.786 fib - Respected ascending trendline You might be thinking that I am super crazy by taking this trade, especially with the referendum only a couple of days away, however I feel as though the UK will not be leaving the EU and this is purely my opinion. I am willing to take on a higher risk as the risk/reward ratio is a lot higher. I expect a 1500 pip move as a minimum, which would blow away some really key levels regardless of which way the vote goes. If you are taking a similar trade and running the risk, ensure that your brokers either have a guaranteed stop loss or a NBP (negative balance protection) to ensure that you do not end up with a blown account. Trade safe
Long
by ApolloFX
GBPJPY on BrexitIf we took a look at the Scottish Independence Referendum in 2014, we can see how similar are these two events. About 1 week before the voting, the "remain" league takes the lead, and GBP gains by a huge percentage. So, the voting day is not important, the day when the result is available is IMPORTANT. We know that there are 2 results: 1. UK remains to be a member of EU. This is the same as Scotland remains a part of UK. But the gains over the 10-day period was extremely good (too good actually), so people began to take profit, and the drop began. 2. UK leaves EU. No doubt, short GBP. In addition, the gap is still way below the current price. So, it seems that either way, we should find good entrance to SHORT GBPJPY. :) Good luck.
Short
by DaQuant
Fibonacci RetracementThe 16/03/2015 the Euro Dollar slowed its fall (opened in 1.04701), and never again be there until the 12.03.2015 where he approached with record lows of 1.05168. Not without having had a maximum of 1.17140 on 24/08/2015. So in my opinion, taking from the minimum point where the fall March to August peak stopped, so should be the Fibonacci retracement on daily charts. From there then, we can speculate as is the minimum that should go down this pair if wins the start of the European Union in England, but also allows us to speculate on the opposite scenario. The pair is retreating between 0.618 and 0.5 levels.
by JeanCarloGarciaQ
Change your life trading GBP/USDDon't lose out, don't try to get too clever. The direction right now is DOWN to fill the void of the recent spike. Will the UK stay or leave? Don't know, don't actually care. All that matters is that we monitor and FOLLOW the patterns of price. Should the UK remain hit the reverse upward trend as of tomorrow when the referendum is done. Should the UK leave keep smashing it down and enjoy the fireworks with some popcorn and a single malt. www.STBinary.com - No bullshit. No games. Simply genuine bespoke service and custom account trading ability
Short
by STBinary
GBPUSD BREXIT ANALYSISTRADE WITH CARE THIS WEEK AS FUNDEMENTALS WILL RESULT IN MAJOR VOLATILITY ACROSS THE GBP AND EUR PAIRS!. A FULL ANALYSIS BREAKDOWN WILL BE UPLOADED ONTO MY YOUTUBE CHANNEL BedroomBillions, Follow me on Twitter & Instagram @ Billionsfx , for regular market analysis Following the upcoming brexit referendum gbpusd is likely to see large amounts of volatility, the pair is currently forming a triple top at key daily resistance @ 1.46838 zone, this is also in confluence with 200 ma which has been providing resistance for the pair. The descending trendline has also acted as key resistance for the pair since September 2015 which we have seen many big downside movements off. A break ( and maybe restest if lucky to see one ) will warrant long entries to the upside target highlighted @ 1.52744.
by BillionsFx
1
Psychological Support Level on GBPJPY nearing like EU ReferendumI thought I would share my idea and thoughts on the GBPJPY as we rapidly approach Britain's EU referendum. For two weeks now I have tailed the GBPJPY down to its psychological support levels 150.00 and 149.500. As the 23rd June nears, I can't help but see a great opportunity to short in the GBPJPY, as current sentiment favours the Brexit rather than the Bremain. Such favouritism is building an even more compelling case in my eyes for a pending short down to the 139.000 levels and the reasoning is due to likely drop in GBP should the Brexit camp prevail. This in my eyes will be the catalyst that will expose the levels below. Currently price is hovering around the 149.500 mark. If price is to break this level and then come back to retest I can't see no other way but down in the short term for the GBPJPY FX:GBPJPY
Short
by craiglewis7
Fade GBPUSD Topside - Brexit and Fed downside carryGBPUSD closes below the 95% reversal SD Channel line, also LSMA gains momentum past price action indicating a pullback is close.. Short term is bullish but no interest in GU topside. INSTEAD we let the bullish technicals play out, hopefully carrying us back to 1.465-7, then we SHORT from these levels where several resistance levels lie and volatility resistance tightens. I love the SHORT GU play every time until the 15th this month.. 1. FED hawkish momentum continues to be priced into LOWER GU - only 24% is currently priced in, this may/SHOULD become > 40% which is lower GU. 2. Brexit uncertainty will indefinitely take us to 1.40-3 by the 23rd of june. thus shorting GU from 1.46-7 can give us 8-1 reward-risk... 50 pips risk 400pips TP down to 1.43/42 by the 23rd of June.. GU lost 700pips in december after the last hike, it is very sensitive to US Fed - unlike UJ and EU
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
Swiss gold referendum - A bear trap ???Gold (01.12.2014) reverse from $1207 mark which we mention as first resistance for bulls. However fall from mention level should taken as correction or profit booking but swiss gold referendum added more fuel & created panic selling. Now gold is trading around $1275 & we have witness a sharp bounce from recent low $1142 made just after a NO answer from swiss gold referendum. The bounce producing a major among trader that how actually this NO going to react. Here is the most possible answer. Swiss gold referendum YES would force swiss banks to buy tonnes of gold to increase the gold holding from 8% to 20% but a NO answer is actually not going to change anything for gold normal trading. The panic selling come in first trading session was not supported by volume (see chart), while the NO answer avoided the immediate buying from swiss banks but now it is mandate for central bank to buy gold from open market or off market. Coming to technical picture, gold made a low of $1142 & now trading above $1169 which represent the 61.8% fibonacci retracement of last upside move till $1207. A stability above this mark with volume & a very positive divergence on day chart suggest that gold already digested swiss result & a technical upside move will continue for coming trading session. A break above $1207 will provide more strength & we may witness a quick move towards $1247. MCX GOLD traded lower with spot gold however the correction more deeper due to removal of 80:20 rule by indian government & low volume. Still on technical front gold was able sustain above previous low. This particular move forming a double bottom pattern which is well supported by positive divergence as shown in the chart. Channel resistance situated around 26780 & if this is broken we may witness a sharp move 26900 & more. Swiss gold referendum could prove a big bear trap if above technical picture stay alive. Best of luck Note - Above technical analysis is not a buy/sell recommendation. For recommendations Contact Us Call Us : 088890 34986
FX:XAUUSDLong
by mantracommodity
10
consolidated GBP = easy money (till tuesday)+info about ScotlandWe've arrived at heavy demand area. Pair should reman consolidated until we encounter a solid reason to break through this level or bounce up. Seems like situation will be simillar to the one when we were at this price level previuosly /yellow square @ Feb 2014/, yet the outcome might be opposite. I'd suggest playing it safe&technical now = from support to resistance and from resistance to support. Tuesday will be the day when some bigger move might appear. This red, long vertical line is placed here to show the date of Scotland's independece referendum. Outcome of this referendum might be heavily injuring for UK. Wondering now wherther or not Scotland's independece is already priced in and what will happen if result shows that they will actually stay with UK. What the price suggests is that, their independecte is mostly priced in so the impulse could be long for both the YES or NO as a result of the voting. Why? Because YES would only add-up more reasons to sell and NO would be a signal that we've pushed it too low in advance, and would mean that UK economy is safe for now causing some (or most) of all these short positions to take profit and wait till situation clears out. What will actually happen to UK if the result is YES? Less income from taxes, less people to contribute to GDP and overall economic growth, less people to take credit from UK's banks and first attempts to build independent monetary circulation system that doesn't support UK (or at least attempts to). There obviously are more outcomes of this but i'm only trying to imagine the scale of it and wondering if there could be any positive outcomes of independent Scotland for UK.
by trust512