Reflection
buying opportunitycrab harmonic pattern:
1.6 BC=$0.00001394
2 BC=$0.00002218
2.24 BC=$0.00002969
2.6 BC=$0.00004701
3.6 BC=$0.000158
1711 Two plans for GBPUSD to goHello traders,
Usually, when price hit the bottom support band of the downtrend channel, we should think about the correction from the reflection point on the channel. That is possible for pair that run with 5 waves to drop down.
Another possibility is that trend will rush down by rejection from EMA to break the channel.
Lets see which way is more possible later.
Last idea on GBPUSD at least hit 2nd TP.
RISK LOWER THAN YOUR TOLERANCE:
Suggested Risk <5%
Your Real Entry Position Will Make Different RR for Your Trade.
GOOD LUCK!!!
LESS IS MORE!
SAITAMA Healthy Consolidation!!!Saitama Inu is currently in an upward Channel with a healthy consolidation before moving to its next price range! Possibly reaching an ATH ( All time High) this incoming week! The Saitama Event in Vegas is Nov 13th which will be the revealing of the new Saitamask Wallet! I suggest researching and learning more about this token, you may be surprised about it's utilities and tokenomics! There is also anticipation of major Exchange listings coming soon as well! Price is pretty stable with this token which is very appealing for new investors, I wouldn't be surprised if we witness all time highs in the Month of November! I hope this information was helpful and I wish everyone the best of Luck!
0811 TrendContinue down for a new leg for NZDUSD Hello traders,
NZDUSD has made a possible downtrend channel.
Right now a possible reflection point on the channel for us to join the trend down.This is a new swing down to bottom band of the big channel for a corrective swing.
RISK LOWER THAN YOUR TOLERANCE:
Suggested Risk <5%
Your Real Entry Position Will Make Different RR for Your Trade.
GOOD LUCK!!!
LESS IS MORE!
1810 Wkly Outlook, GOLD still bearish to us to 1680Hello traders,
This is not a set up plan. Wkly outlook, gold is till my option to sell.
The channel is broken on 4h chart, ABC wave could finish A at the green dash support line.
B is where we should wait for signal to sell.
Good luck on this plan to follow wkly trend that still bearish to us.
LESS IS MORE!
1510 4H GOLD update for potential entry to long to 1830Hello traders,
GOLD is making a reflection point on the channel.
Check the lower support by hitting the Red Ema LATER for potential entry confirming signal to buy.
Follow EMAS later instead the blue channel which could be invalid by a strong leg up to approach upper dash lines as targets.
GOOD LUCK ON THIS PLAN .
LESS IS MORE!
MACRO BTC ANALYSIS / BULLISH IDEA + thoughts...First, a few thoughts / reflection as we reach this critical junction...
Let's take a step back. It's easy to get caught up in the chop/noise/hype/news. I just saw a headline that read "The Bitcoin Dream is Dead" and couldn't help but laugh... albeit a bit nervously. At risk of sounding like a Vietnam vet or something, I WAS THERE in 2017, desperately watching the crash from previous ATH of 20k, unable to sell my BTC because Coinbase was down (of course). In the coming weeks, as I watched my net worth disintegrate, I had the sense to take some profits, but was mostly ignorant about trading/TA and unable to realize the obvious reversal into a two+ year long bear market.
Perhaps traumatized by that experience, I was far too bearish for far too long this time around. It sucks to be the last bull to the party, and you have to be cautious if you're currently looking to reenter / long BTC as it hits new ATHs. You do NOT want to revert to an impulsive noob crypto investor who buys in at the top and rides the retrace down. (Stop Losses are important)
But, obviously, this is not 2017. There is a LOT more institutional money in this market, and obviously more retail every year. We've already DOUBLED the previous ATH, and many are calling for 50 - 100k BTC in the next year. At this point, it certainly seems possible, but what happens over the next few weeks will matter A LOT in terms of getting the best reentry & mitigating downside risk.
ANALYSIS:
We just had a 26% retrace, big enough to have my mother texting me her condolences... but not unheard of for btc bull run retraces. Now it looks like BTC is forming an ascending triangle, a bullish pattern, but also potentially a macro head & shoulders (bearish). Also note that the top line of the rising wedge that BTC previously traded in is still in play. I would not be surprised if we see the h&s play out as a retest of that trend line, which would shake out a lot of weak hands / those who unfortunately bought near the top, and give those with true grit a new entry.
If / when BTC breaks and holds above the new resistance level around 37k, this will indicate a continuation of the bull run.
happy trades,
CD
The whole picture of BTCI have tried understand this picture many times before. I have made comparisons and forecasts. I have hoped many times that history would have repeated itself. I have believed in BTC past performance to be an indicator for the future one.
I have done so many deductions that I am so tired of and I have read tons of articles about BTC that would explain something more than I could understand by myself.
The thing is: you can't understand a quasar by watching a 10 years progress. It takes millions of years to fill a cycle of a quasar and it probably takes tens of years to have a good picture of what BTC is. It's still in its birth phase but we don't understand it and so.....trying to predict its behaviour it is as silly as watching the the sky for a few minutes and try to understand the universe.
Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year everyone
RF
XBT / USD (short idea afrer recent cup n handle breakout of 4XXXThis chart is posted after recent breakout as i had originally planed to short it before the breakout and was going to enter a trade when i got home, but too much time has passsed and the trade has moved beyond the current trading range.
Nonetheless i want to show what i was planning to do on the short side of the trade pre breakout.
1. Price hit local resistance at 4042
2. second and third volume candles post spike had significant bearish voume suggesting failed breakout
3,. placed short with tight stop loss @ 4150
4. Target of trade was just above next local support @ 3932
5. Trade entered @ 4021 (short)
6. Expecting price to hit local resistance of around 3929 due to cup formation was expecting a handle pullback to said price range before next price rise
7. When price hit local support i was goign to cash in my shorts and swap for longs with another tight stop loss based on technical analysis
8. R/R 1.45
9. price dropped to a min of 3960 meaning a max gain of 1.47% if you covered your short at 3960 from 4021
Self-discipline - what's that?Whilst I am on a roll, I'm pushing out loads of questions and thoughts that have occupied me for the last two years. All this is well ' Beyond Technical Analysis '!
In too many trading/training videos out there, I've heard the words 'discipline' and 'self-discipline'. These are so commonly used words that many take their meaning for granted, or as something very elementary. I know - because I was one of those people who thought I knew what the words meant.
However, there is also a thing called self-deception which works against self-discipline. Self-deception at its heart, is the ability of the mind to justify anything! Quite simply - it's dangerous.
The Collins Dictionary defines self-discipline as, " controlling of oneself or one's desires, actions, habits ... .. the act of disciplining or power to discipline one's own feelings, desires... with the intention of improving oneself. " It's easier now to see how this connects to trading environments.
A sound trader needs a lot of personal self-control over actions, habits, feelings and desires. I add 'thinking processes'. Certainly there must be a routine that improves one abilities, as the markets are not static. Their behaviour changes so one needs to improve to match those changes.
The obvious question for many (especially new traders) is, " How do I become more disciplined? " I'm afraid there is no magic formula that I can prescribe. I can only share a few personal experiences that drove me to become more disciplined.
It's like a weird sandwich:
A firm and unshakeable desire to make myself consistently profitable.
Pain i.e. painful mistakes.
Non-acceptance that if others could do it, I couldn't.
Pain drives people - let's not debate that. By pain I include from the worse kinds of suffering to the more subtle kinds. One can include things like frustration, anger and disappointment. Pain stood like a distasteful filling between the two sides of my sandwich. I just couldn't ignore it. If I wanted to make this thing right I had to fix the pain; all sources of it.
I was/am my own pain. My enemies arise from within me to cause me pain. My mind plays tricks on me in trading environments. To deal with the sources of pain I had to deal with my own mind, else just give up. I'm no quitter! So whilst I do not claim near-perfect discipline now, I have been addressing the trickery of my own mind - those inner enemies - that thwart my thinking processes. After all, if I don't the whole sandwich (three bullet points above) become nothing - and I'd have to join the 90-odd percent of people who give up on trading in the first couple years.
Am I saying that pain is a necessary ingredient for everybody to reach a greater self-disciplined state? Well yes I am! In every walk of life people have to suffer some sort of discomfort in achieving their goals. If you wanted to become a top-rated lawyer, you would have to suffer the 'pain' of years of study, and the trauma of being beaten in court rooms. If you want to get to the North Pole on foot, that involves pain and personal sacrifice. But nobody gets to the North Pole alive, with poor discipline. I shan't go on to mention other areas where people suffer extreme discomfort in order to achieve their goals.
If there are take away points to consider, traders should to find out what they are about and anchor themselves on what they want and what they won't have. Then, systematically whittle away at all obstacles by robust self-refection. It takes time - and bargain for pain! Do the time - take the pain. Don't blow up a live account.
How to trade with a reflection point.Traders,
This is a short signal on the channel.
Because C is he highest point hitting channel.
Rsi div on C too.
We would assume this is a reflection point on the channel and short it to another reflection point as first target.
If price drop down deeper to break the channel, you will glad that you have such great entry and should hold it till another ABC appear.
Otherwise, short it again when price retouch the channel.
Less is more!
Reflection: EUR/USD, Tapering.. is ECB crazy or is not?This post is not intended to be an investment advice or a prediction. It´s simply a look at the current economic situation in the Eurozone based on macroeconomic data and historical behavior.
- - - -
Mario Draghi woke up the beast in Sintra (Portugal) with a speech that was interpreted as hawkish. At that time everyone understood the possibility of tapering by the end of 2017. As a result: investors bought euro in a massive way.
At the subsequent meeting of the ECB, Mario Draghi tried to contain the rise of the euro with a dovish speech but finally the pressure of the press brought the magic words and Draghi talked about the possible discussion of tapering in September. As a result: investors bought euro again on a massive way.
The magic word for the next few months is: Tapering!!. Is Draghi hawkish or dovish? and most important... is Europe ready for tapering or even more, for a rise of interest rate?. Let's take a look at the USA in 2014 and compare with Europe:
1. Tapering in the US was announced in 2013 and was subject to a couple of goals: an inflation rate of 2% and an unemployment rate below 6%. Tapering finally began in 2014 after 2 years with an inflation rate consolidating around 2%.
At this moment inflation rate in Europe still cannot go up to 2%. In fact, it has only arrived a couple of times this year. Moreover the price of energy (brent) is on the ground, something that does not help. On the other hand, unemployment rate is above 9%. Far from its previous levels in 2008, before financial crisis.
2. The debt of the eurozone (and several of its countries) is within the world top 15. Would it be convenient to raise interest rate and pay more for that debt immediately?
3. Germany is the strongest economy of Europe and an exporting country. A stronger Euro through a raise of types does not seem the most convenient in the near future.
4. The euro has just broken an active range since 2015 in mid-summer with low trading volumes. This area is also 0.23% fibo of the 2008´s big fall. After 5 consecutive months of climb without a correction.
Is a strong/key resistance like this so easy to break? Apparently it is. Due to a weak dollar involved in a political drama.
It´s true that macroeconomic data are improving in Eurozone but is it enough for tapering this year? Draghi will play its cards and we´ll believe him... or not.