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Regression-trend-channel

EUR/JPY Technical Analysis.Currently, EUR/JPY is trading at 119.58. The pair started a new down trend on 8th June and after giving the exit signal on regression trend by breaking the support level, it consolidated between the resistance and support levels. After breaking the support level and neck line at 120.68, the pair continued the down trend, its first target price for the down trend will be at 119.31 and the second target price will be at 118.47. Follow a proper risk management strategy to avoid unnecessary losses and to increase profitability, don't risk more than 2% of your capital on each trade. Do follow us for future Forex trend analysis and Ideas. Thank you, Rishikesh Lilawat
Short
by rishililawat5
Lupin: Will the fundamental heat in pharma continue? Pharma sector constituents are under good traction, whether they are directly racing to find the cure for COVID-19 or just acting as an ancillary medium to main players. Technically, Lupin in particular, after getting out of a constricted regression channel, is in a bull drive with a healthy flag and now halted at a pennant. Here, Volumes are imbalanced both in positive and negative ends. Hence, an gaining a balance towards one end is likely to either continue the trend or reverse the momentum. Point to note here is that the zone between the extended continuation resistance and the demand zone plotted should be considered a no-trade area as it is acting as the current mean and momentum can only be triggered beyond this value area.
NSE:LUPIN
by AdarshMotwani
Reversion To The MeanI have used the Regression Tool available on TradingView, to plot the SPX Monthly Chart going back to 2009. What I observed is that on 2 occasions, (points which are marked with arrows as A and B), the SPX went above the Upper Limit and then immediately fell back to within the channel. At Point A, it returned back to the Median and then followed a gradual upward path towards Point B, whereupon, the SPX Monthly then fell sharply back to the Median and continued to fall to below the edge of the Lower Limit. Event A took place in the month of Jan 2018 and Event B subsequently worked itself out in the month of September 2018. The SPX Monthly is now again back up and beyond the Upper Limit of the Regression Zone and, if; history repeats itself, then the odds are high that it will exercise Reversion to The Mean again on this 3rd occurrence. I link into a previous post , (about Chart Patterns that tend not to fill) and am of the opinion that 3102 on the SPX will be the Maximum Floor towards which the SPX will revert back to. This is still very much a powerful Bull Market and the Top Is Not In, and may not even be in till perhaps closer to 4000+ (as the Market nears the results of the US Presidential Elections of 2020 in November).
SP:SPX
by supratimbarman
2
EURJPY Bearish Gartley 886 This time im updating the chart on EURJPY. As you can see I spotted 3 potential harmonic patterns in the making on this particular pair. If you take a look at how price reacted to the completion point in the Gartley 886, you can clearly see the rejection and how sellers immediately took control of the market. Besides that, last week closing price took out the median regression trend line and closed below. I am expecting a significant drop, with a minimum profit target of the 38% XA retracement at 120.5xx, but could go all the way towards 62% XA retracement at 118.7xx The best entry would imho happen to be be right now, around 121.3xx. Thank you for reading the analysis Dont forget to like the chart and make sure you leave any comments in the section below I appreciate all support, thank you so much & please keep it coming my way! Happy trading and God bless
Short
by MikulovicFOREX
1
USDJPY Longer-Term View with Regression Trend ToolI have added in another regression trend channel going back to the late 2016 high. That longer-term channel shows the potential upside target for a breakout above the medium-term channel if that were to occur. At this particular juncture, the medium and short-term channels are the ones in play, with a potential or bounce or break of the short-term channel on the radar right now. This is a follow-up post. See related ideas for the original. Use the tool if you like it, discard if it doesn't help you.
Education
by CoryMitchell-CMT
Using the Regression Trend Tool to Analyze USDJPYCurrency charts (or any chart) can look rather chaotic sometimes. Grabbing a regression trend tool may help. You select the tool and the pick the two points...usually a major high and low. The regression tool then finds the line of best fit through the data. You can also add standard deviations above and below the regression line, resulting in a channel. The result will be slightly different than a drawn channel because it is essentially highlighting the average price action between two points in time. I have used the tool twice on the USDJPY chart. The larger one shows the price is near the top of a larger channel. The smaller shows the price is near the bottom of a short-term channel. This helps highlight some potential trading opportunities. If the price consolidates here and moves higher (would use 4-hour chart), it is a buy trade into the top of the small and larger channels. But if that occurs, once the price reaches the upper channel, watch for a potential short (or break to the upside). Alternatively, if we head lower from here, that will break the short-term rising channel, and indicate a pretty big downward move based on the larger channel. You could freehand draw these channels as well, but sometimes a crazy one day move will obscure a pattern that the regression highlights. For example, the regression filters out that one day drop on Jan 2 2019....without the regression (or without ignoring that long candle wick) it is hard to see the channel. You could also go back further in time and add in additional regression channels to provide a larger insight into where the currency pair is within its cycle. Want more like this? Discuss trades in my free swing trading Facebook group: www.facebook.com
Education
by CoryMitchell-CMT
Silver Losing Momentum In silver, we had a strong move upwards from the $17/oz range to a high of roughly $19.755/oz. Recently, however, the price has failed to maintain momentum to regain those highs and has steadily pushed lower in an evident regression trend on the daily chart from 05 Sep 2019 to the present. I believe that silver will retest the $17/oz range, and from there, we will have a stronger confirmation on the short term direction of silver's price. As well the gold to silver ratio rebounded from a yearly low of roughly 1XAU:79.38XAG to currently 1XAU:84.89XAG. In the meantime, I believe silver to be a short trade. However, in the long run, silver seems to be bullish as the gold to silver ratio is at historical peak levels.
COMEX:SI1!Short
by Zacmando
NAV regression channel convergence, 3:1In my experience, charts have a strong attraction to moving towards multiple pattern convergence areas. Why? Because they're zones where a lot of emotion is triggered, aka lots of people will be involved. Market makers need to get you involved. That's why things drop just below your favorite area of the chart, get you emotionally triggered, and _then_ reverse. Or go just past your buy stop limit and then plummet. They go hunting for these trigger areas. And I think the one circled is where NAV is headed next. Perhaps after some more accumulation / low side (sell for you, buy for them) triggering. Could be a week or even three before move happens. And I could be totally wrong, of course.
NLong
by some_guy
NZDJPY - Rebound or just a correction? NZDJPY, H4 & Daily The New Zealand dollar is gaining ground this week against the Yen and the US Dollar. The overriding theme has been Yen weakness, which has been subject to a safe-haven premium unwind following the US invitation to senior Chinese officials for fresh trade negotiations, and also the higher Oil prices. The NZDJPY crossed yesterday into the upper Bollinger Bands pattern after ebbing to a 24-month low on Monday at 72.25. The pair has been following a bearish linear Regression Channel since July 2017, something that is likely to continue in the long term, since no break to the upside of the channel has occurred so far. In the medium term though, the rebound from a 2-month low on Monday, away from the lower line of the channel, gave signs that the price action may be due for a change in direction. This, along with the closing above the 20-day SMA yesterday, confirmed that the outlook in the medium term has been turned from negative to positive. Technically-wise the same bullish picture is seen in momentum indicators as well, as daily RSI just crossed above neutral zone with higher lows being noticed since mid-August. MACD is moving in the negative territory, however it moves above its signal line today. Also, if we review the 4-hour chart, we can notice that momentum indicators are strongly supporting the bullish momentum for the pair, as RSI is ready to enter into the overbought territory with further space to be covered to the upside, while MACD extends its lines above neutral zone and above its signal line. As the price has decisively closed above 73.50 immediate Resistance level yesterday, price action could move further to the upside, towards a Resistance area reached on August 30, at 74.45-74.60. This is considered to be a strong resistance area at which the pair could reach and the retrace, since it combines the 50-day SMA, the weekly R3 but also the extension of the middle line of the channel. Support is set at 73.00-73.30 . If this Resistance area breaks, but more precisely, if the median line gets broken in the direction of the trend, this means that a current impulse wave is likely forming, which could provide for a trend continuation signal. Hence further gains above the middle barrier could then target the area around the FE127.2 and August peak, at 75.75-76.30 area. However, please note that the pair, in the long-term, remains within the bearish regression channel, hence in the case of a clear reversal to the downside, doors for the continuation of the downtrend will open again. Intra-day, immediate Resistance level is set at 74.00 and Support is set at 73.50 based on the hourly chart. Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
by HotForex
BTC in the uptrend channel, dropping to 6700 and still OKAY!A couple observations on the recent price action. The uptrend that we are in is holding form. Last week we penetrated through the purple downtrend channel from 2 previous highs (standard scale, not log scale...interesting side discussion). But after that breakout, BTC has hit a hard wall at 7123, which is the same resistance level that BTC hit on Aug 5 and 7 when it tried to correct from the free fall earlier this month. Not a huge surpise there. Also not a huge surprise that BTC would hit off this level and go down to retest the top of the purple downtrend line. If this happens and it continues down to this line, it appears that it would coincide with my uptrend channel (linear regression tool set to 2 standard deviations) right at my pink ellipse. This retrace back to 6700 would be also represent a .786 retrace from the impulse that began on Sunday, Aug 26. We are currently holding at .5 fib retrace at 6850, so it is possible that this level will hold also, but we would need a pump in bullish volume to prove its support. I am quite surprised that my red resistance rectangle didn't seem to provide any major support. A couple of tests on the top edge of it yesterday, but today it fell straight through. So that support from history is not as relevant as recent support/resistance levels apparently. There is a hefty battle happening currently with increasing volume, and now we have to see who wins. Coincidentally, this level of 6825 also has been resistance in the past on the way up on Aug 21, as can be seen in this 2 hour chart. It's not as clear on other timeframes, but this 2-hr chart clearly shows the candle close at this level and is most recent, so it could have some validity for support. If not, we can expect to drop to 6700 before we find support and begin our climb upward again. I am bullish still and this retrace is healthy. The 1 hr RSI is oversold, but the 2 hr isn't quite there yet, nor is the higher timeframes, so this indicates further downward pressure throughout today. I'm not a big fan of the Moving Averages for the simple reason that you can choose whatever timeframe you want and always find an intersection of support or resistance wherever you look. These results don't indicate causation, just coincidence. They naturally coincide because the Moving Average always follows the price by its nature of calculation. Nonetheless, I keep them on my chart to try to learn from them and keep on open mind. But as I said, I can manipulate them just like anyone else so on the Daily timeframe, there is a nice upper bound with the SMMA 20 and lower bound at the SMMA 50. So I'll keep an eye on the daily timeframe to see if there is more to the story. Lastly, I haven't projected any more Elliott Waves yet, as it isn't clear to me if/where the first bullish impulse wave has ended yet because the subwaves are so volatile and getting a count is difficult. Longer timeframes will be helpful, but I am sure I can safely say that the abc (wxy) retrace has ended and we have begun the next Wave 3 of the Super Cycle. Have a Great Day!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by bluemt95