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Regression

Tesla's 1:6 trade opportunityThis morning Tesla's r(0.988) linear regression just touched a new low at 260.1, there are two possible scenarios: Red arrow: Tesla's uptrend is over and investors should probably SHORT targeting 248.00. Green arrow: Tesla is currently undervalued and may bounce back to the near resistance level at 286.88 continuing the r(0.988) linear regression. My pick this time is a 1:6 LONG trade expecting the price to go back to the regression channel. --- "We go to school to learn to work hard for money. I write books and create products that teach people how to have money work hard for them. " - Robert Kiyosaki
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by adelriosantiago
BUY APPLE: 2016 @$117 & 2017 @$151 - HISTORICAL MONTHLY ANALYSISApple shows a strong and consistent monthly trend of each bull-bear cycle lasting approximates 2-3 years. The first bull cycle yielded between 200% and 700% growth, the second much less at 145% growth, and the third we estimate using regressions to be approximately between 67% and 106% (or 67% for the next bull run to $151 and 105% for the 4th bull run to $181). Looking at apple from this monthly perspective gives me reassurance that the $134-$89 or 33% pull back we just saw was merely a macro cyclical correction (which was actually less severe than the pullback in 2012) rather than a structural bearish re-trend - assuming we go on to make $150+ highs in 2017. With this assumption/ thought in mind it actually makes sense to buy apple heavily whilst its at such a discount - after-all apple historically has shown steep price extensions that offer few significant (-10%+) pull backs to buy, thus we should realign our attitude to factor in where apple sits in its cycle. It is often too easy to get caught up in the daily +/1 $2 moves, you sometimes can forget the bigger picture of making the most of a great stock fundamentally, thats trading at 10x p:e. A key statistical measure that reaffirms the above is Apple's monthly price action and its 120 month Linear regression line which together returns a Pearson's R Coefficient of 0.95, meaning time and price as plotted on the x and y axis for Apple hold an almost perfect linear relationship (Apples data is 95% about the linear regression line). This means we can extrapolate the price trends for the bull-bear cycles, by simply extending the x axis (time) along the regression line to estimate future prices, to a decent degree of statistical relevance. If the Peasron's R Coefficient was 0.1 it would mean monthly prices are only 10% about the regression, thus extrapolation of price through time would LIKELY yield very little correlation to the actual future price, based on past prices. Look out for my fundamental analysis of apple in the coming weeks
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
6
APPLE LONG: $151-$182 - CYCLICAL ANALYSIS & REGRESSION FORECASTAnalysing Apple's (AAPL) historical cyclical price movements and using the +/- 2SD of the linear regression to forecast a naive regression price for the next extension phase. * Extension leg Regression Forecast* 1. For leg A (Extension Leg 1) we use a start point of $12.5 or $33 (phase doesnt have a clear start), or we could assume a mean value of (12.5+33)/2= $22.75. - Leg A is then, $12.5, $23.5 or $33 divided by $100, which means Leg A is a price increase of = 700%, 310% or 200% 2. For Leg C (Extension Leg 2) the price increased from $55 to $134.5 which is a 145% increase. 3. For Foretasted Leg E (Extension Leg 3), we start at $89 and we derive the price "%" increase by: - Using the regression of the price increase % from Leg A to Leg C e.g. 145%/700%= 21%; 145/310 = 46%; 145/200= 73%, so this means for each of the calculations we can then assume each is the regression growth differential from Leg C's 145% increase to foretasted Leg E's "%" increase 4. e.g. Foretasted Leg E / Extension Leg 3: 21% of 145% = 31% increase; $89 * 31% = $117 or 46% of 145% = 67% increase ; $89* 67% * $89= $151 or 73% of 145% = 106% increase; $89 * 106% = $182 - Thus Apples Leg E/ Extension Leg 3's Naive Regression Forecast = between $151 and $182 * As shown on graph. Furthermore, another interesting statistical measure for apples 10year/ 120 Month +/-2SD channel was that the Pearsons R was 0.95. This means that the linear correlation between Apples Price over the measured time period was 95%. 95% of all values observed lie averagely on its linear regression line (middle line of the Stan Dev channel) - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearson_product-moment_correlation_coefficient - Having such a high Peasons R means the regression line holds true for 95% of past data and therefore is MAY also include 95% of future data thus extrapolating the linear line (or using basic regressions as i have done) is of some statistical significance. A Pearsons R coefficient of 0.3 means there is little positive correlation between Price and Time, thus extrapolating prices through time using basic regressions/ forecasts is much less statistically prudent, since only 30% of past data correlated about the linear regression line.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
BTSBTC 594 days long fight against a linear regression downtrendThe +2 deviation line was touched but shortly left unbowed. A quick observation of a market timing advises that a positively solved btc debacle might have some bearing on this scenario, notwithstanding, one thing remains static no matter what plot develops around in the btc chart. It's location of the 89 timezone. Being a predefined invariable, it sits tight in the future that is yet to come, waiting for the bulls to outbalance the bear thrust in this 594 d declining regression trend. Ideally, uncertainty coupled with flames of passion flaring up in the btc subreddit would solve all the problems here, and 89 timezone sets a key turning point in this story giving the market 30 days to make it out of an established regression downtrend. In the worst case scenario with sellers jumping the shark again it would get dimmed to dull embers though its deemed normality to get slapped one last time before a new uptrend sets in. The narrower the trading range is, the more problems there are with keeping it in the same tight room. Pay attention to time, if a green support zone gets pierced through before 05.03 +/- week bts could lose up to 95% of its present value.
Long
by heglassedme
1
Ghosts of Gold Past: Fast and Clean Double-Digit ShortCall me a one trick pony, but shorting gold is life. Pattern has been setting up similar to the pattern that preceded the NOV drop in GLD. The dotted line I'm using as a quasi trigger alert, is a parallel (to wedge resistance) line set to the max of the SEP rally high. The rest should be fairly self explanatory. If we cross below $106.20 I would initiate short, searching for full 3:1 profit. Feeling hesitant? Be mindful of possible structure support at ~$104.00. Feeling bold ? Look for move to your 1.6 Fib level. Lets talk implementation, more specifically options. I would move in by buying at the money puts, split 50-50 equal dollar value between late FEB and mid MAR expiration. If the move occurs hard and fast like it had in NOV you'll benefit from the leverage options offer, along with a significant boost to implied vol. and hence the price value of your puts. Cheers folks.
AMEX:GLDShort
by BeardTech
1
[NM]Bull and Bear Power trade signal - thanks to [RS]The base code for this indicator was created by RicardoSantos and can be found here : What I added is a signal line that indicates when to buy and when to sell. Advised use : Combine with a zero-lag indicator like ZeroLagEMA_LB by LazyBear (suggested period = 34) Then use the following Rules of engagement : Current price > ZLEMA & Signal line of BBP_NM is green : BUY Current price < ZLEMA & Signal line of BBP_NM is red : SELL Please click the like button if you dig this indicator !
by Nico.Muselle
40
Bat Pattern, Eur/Aud, 1 hrHere we have a completed Gartley pattern in the positive deviation area of the last 100 and 200 moves. According to my strategy , this market is likely to reverse down into the negative regression. As of right now, the market is retesting the high at point D and we should see a trade completion in the next couple of hours. Anyone that has been following my trades knows that last week I had a very bad week and I am making a minor change to my strategy for the week , until we recover from our losses, i was previously trading all harmonics to the 1.618 extension of the BC leg, but as of this week , i will only be trading harmonics to the .618 extension , just for a guaranteed close for profit. I have placed my trade actions as follows: Limit: point X Entry: point D Limit: the .618 extension of the BC leg Please like and comment if you agree or disagree respectively. And always follow me for more updates on market analysis and harmonic patterns , and recently a lot of wave theory's. And as always Good Trading Everyone!
Short
by Kylan_Laymance
Bat Pattern, Aud/Nzd , 1hrHere I found a bat pattern developed and completed in the negative deviation range of the AUD NZD chart. my strategy suggests that the market will rally up into positive deviation before correcting for trend continuation. I have place my entry at point B to Verify reversal after point D I have placed my Stop at point X for the break below close below bust ! have placed my limit at the 1.618 extension of the BC leg , for consistency and risk reward ratios
Long
by Kylan_Laymance
Gartley Pattern, Gbp/Jpy, 15minherre we see a fairly solid gartley pattern on the gbp jpy charts. like all gartley patterns , I expect the market to complete the patteren , and then continure to rally to the 1.618 extension of th BC leg. I have support form the linear regression channel, which suggests that the market is low, and should rally back up into the positive deviation. I have places my entry at point B , my stop at point X and my limit at the 1.618 extension of the BC leg. Thanks for checking this out, dont forget to like comment and follow for more Forex updates. As always Good trading !
Long
by Kylan_Laymance
PFE Energy Inc in the BUY ZONE for long term entryThe concept here is to use the KEY EARNINGS LEVELS as the important beginning and ending for your regression analysis. That way you KNOW the first and last points are extremely important price levels for the stock you are analyzing. Many times people use various, inconsistent methods to determine where to begin and end regressions and it yields unacceptable results. I am all about doing analysis that can be repeated and later re-analyzed, which is why I like my Time@Mode Methodology (see my other charts here at TradingView). \ I added a "hanging wire" to highlight the beginning and end of the regression (just for visual reinforcement) I also added the "Range Expansion" that is happening today (see the tiny, white triangle and "+++ RgExp") to give me a heads up that someone is aggressively buying the stock today (or short covering) and that is always a good sign to begin to establish long positions. As a side note: The ATR of PBF is at the lowest it has been in it's entire history, which doesn't mean that it is LOW RISK by any means, but it means it is LOW VOLATILITY. Low Volatility can mean "no interest" and it can mean a host of other things too, like a one-sided market where everyone is slowly doing the same thing (selling or buying) and driving a stock price in a particular direction waiting for some reaction back from the market, the company or Wall Street Analysts. I put the "WOW" at the top there because that's when it looked like PBF was breaking out and acting unusually great... "WOW" seemed to fit nicely. It briefly continued the breakout, bringing in all kinds of technical breakout traders and then promptly dove down from there to wash out any hopeful breakout traders. Do some Due Diligence. I went to the company's annual meeting in New Jersey in May (Parsippany) and didn't find out much from that, other than they don't like telling their story to a room full of investors. Only 4 outside investors were there. For now, this is just informational for you to see how to draw "KEY EARNINGS LEVEL - REGRESSION POINTS" Tim 26.73 last PBF 10:54AM Friday, June 5, 2015
NYSE:PBFLong
by timwest
9
Bat Pattern, Cad/Jpy, 30 minHere we see a bat pattern forming in the Cad/ Jpy charts, it is likely that the pattern will complete, because it seems too close to the linear regression line to try to recross without some lower moves. once the pattern completes the market will likely reverse upon completion and rally back across the regression line reaching the 1.618 extension of BC. (this may take as long as 9 hours) Our actions are as so: Limit: 100.089 Entry: 99.939 Stop:99.869 Please follow along to see how this trade goes, for updates and more trades , follow me here on TradingView and don't forget to like and comment your opinions. Thanks for checking this out ! as always Good Trading !
Long
by Kylan_Laymance
Cypher Pattern , Usd/Chf, 15minHere we see a cypher pattern on the Us Swiss charts. This pattern is indicating that the market will reverse upon completion, and is supported by completing above the linear regression line. When a Bearish pattern completes above the standard deviation line, it is likely that , If the market is bearish, the market will rally back under the line , and similar to a price action trade, come near the negative deviation line. I have forecast the market to touch the negative deviation line , which comes out to about 4 hours from now, but it is more likely to take longer and not actually reach the deviation line, but rather just cross the linear regression taking 2 days and 7 hours. With that said, i have placed my usual actions as the following: Entry: point B Limit : 1.618 extension of the BC leg Stop: point X Thanks for checking this out, look forward to you comments and likes, as always follow for my predictions! Thanks and Good Trading!
Short
by Kylan_Laymance
Butterfly Pattern, NZD/USD, 1hrHere we see a butterfly pattern on the New Zealand , United States charts. I have given the market some space to complete the end of the butterfly pattern before continuing in a bearish trend, because the closer to perfect the pattern is , the more secure of a pattern it will be. I have placed all of my order actions in the usual places, with one exception. because the pattern has not completed, I have placed my stop at the previous structure above point X. I believe that the market will possibly rally to that structure and reverse from there. Following the reversal, I will trail my stop down to point X and hold there for retracement. Please comment any idea , opinions , suggestions, changes, it helps me become a better trader. also like and follow me if you think i am on the right track. As always thanks for checking me out, and Good Trading!
Short
by Kylan_Laymance
Butterfly Pattern, Eur/Gbp, 15minHere we see a butterfly pattern on the Euro, Pound charts. Like most trades i make, i try to find support inside the linear regression channel and here we see the patern complete along the linear regression and the butterfly would suggest that we rally back up into, if not past, the positive standard deviation line. I have placed my targets like any other harmonic you will see me trade. My entry is at point b , my stop at point X and my limit at the 1.618 extension of the BC leg. This pattern appears to have 9 hours to complete as labeled by my forecast line. Thanks for checking us out, as always like comment and follow. Thank you and good trading !
Long
by Kylan_Laymance
Price Action (Elliot Wave Maybe?) GBP/JPY, 30minHere I see a price action trade along the linear regression line with standard deviation set at 2 and -2. I also believe this may be an Elliot wave cycle. If i remember correctly, the third wave, should be about the same length as the first wave, so i have placed my limit at the 1.618 extension of the second wave, just to be safe (remember, still learning price action). I have placed my stop at previous structure and my entry is at current price, with any luck, we should see some profit here in a few hours. Thanks for checking us out, any pointers would be greatly appreciated, just leave them in the comments. Don't forget to like if you agree with the trade, and follow if you want to see some more trading As always, Good trading! I
Long
by Kylan_Laymance