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Regression

SPY Update (monthly close)We have managed to close out a month above the 50% retrace at 414.04 drawn from 2022 high to low. This has been a key area to overcome. We are clearly now above the 405.11 POC area, and this month we cleared another high volume point at the 50% retrace line (414.04). The low points in September and October 2022 touched and repelled off the lower 2 sigma line of the regression trend (salmon color in the background) drawn from March 2020 COVID low to January 2022 high. From May 2022 to present we formed roughly an upper lateral wall at the 50% line, accompanied by a rising trend of higher lows. In effect, this has created an ascending triangle. This from Stockcharts.com: "The ascending triangle is a bullish formation that usually forms during an uptrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when ascending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of a downtrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, ascending triangles are bullish patterns that indicate accumulation. Source: stockcharts.com" The ascending triangle is a bullish reversal pattern, but in a downtrend is is less reliable as a bullish reversal than if it occurred in an uptrend. I personally have seen very few (maybe none) of this pattern in a downtrend, so I have no opinion of which way it will go if it breaks. Nevertheless, the higher lows exhibited in the trend is encouraging to bulls. You will notice the twelve month Bollinger bands are narrowing, and the 12 month moving average is levelling out. A move may be nearing soon. If we can further move past the 50% retrace line, we get into an area of declining volume (down sloping) and we could have a pretty fast move up to 424. On the other hand, should we have a negative catalyst, and if we descend below the 405 POC area we could have a sharp descent lower on a declining volume slope. (I can think of two possible catalysts -- continued overly hawkish FED or further bank solvency issues). So I think next week FOMC + further banking issues may give us some good clues.
AMEX:SPY
by UnknownUnicorn13101
ES1! Fibonacci LevelsES1! Fibonacci Levels on 6wk horizon. Confluence observed with PA in sustained level between Key SMAS 20, 200. Confluence observed with 0.618 and 0.5 with areas of fair value. Reliability of measure supported using linear regression with pearsons r of 0.97554. A bear flag would be confirmed with breach of sigma 2 :3888.50 and KLs 3973.75, 3515.50 (and rediscovery of September 2022 and October 2020 prices). > 4165.75: 4319.25, 4509 (sigma 1 level confluent with fib 0.236); Where RSI of 54.43 x upward slope supports risk on auction // Price at time of study 4140.25// Upcoming earnings will be factored in alongside economic events, breadth, and treasury market volatility// Bias: Neutral to risk on
CME_MINI:ES1!
by GroundNinja
Spinning Bottom Reversal - NiftyAs discussed in the previous blog, the sell-off was expected to 17000 1. Spinning Bottom Candle, which depicts the reversal and is also supported by open interest data, A lot of puts are being shorted 2. Regression channel, Since Dec 2022, Nifty has been moving in the regression channel, It is reversed from the bottom of the channel. Assuming these structural formations, nifty will likely trade above the 16900 to 17000 range for the next 2 Weeks as long as support is intact. This week's candle formation will derive the sentiment for April Month.
NSE:NIFTY1!Long
by OK_Rane
1/4/2023 AnalysisThe Hard Road Newsletter - Weekly Analysis, auto investing machines and News Yellow line is the 200 SMA White Line is the 20 SMA. Bottom indicator is the 20D Cumulative Returns For those that don't know, Pivot Points, are reversal points of trend channels. You can see the trend marked out using a Regression Channel drawing tool inside Trading View. We are expecting a continuation of this next wave of the downtrend, at least 1-3 weeks.  The major resistance we are seeing is $350.Note the RED drawn line for primary prediction of a support bounce and Orange as a secondary breakdown. 20D Cumulative Returns (Bottom Indicator)Looks like we're in for a bumpy ride! The current trend channel hasn't even hit the $350 support mark yet and the 20D cumulative returns are barely scratching the surface of their typical bottom of -10%. Buckle up, because it looks like we've got more room to fall over the next 1-3 weeks. Trend Continuation or Reversal ZoneIf the trend holds at the $350 level, we may see a change in the trend between Apr 03 and Sept 05. At this point, the market will either continue to decline or reverse into a bull rally. Alternatively, the current downward trend may continue if it falls below the $350 level. Major Indicators to Watch FED Interest rates and money supply constriction will be a major factor in determining the market's direction. An increase in rates could mean more bear markets on the horizon. In other words, if the FED raises rates, it's time to start hibernating like a bearUnemployment Rate/Participation Rate - If layoffs increase, expect less money going into the markets.Public Sentiment - The bear market may continue if your grandma, mom, and uncle who live paycheck to paycheck are starting to save money out of fear. The Hard Road Newsletter - Weekly Analysis, auto investing machines and News
AMEX:SPY
by Dzuari
Epic Fail of Bitcoin in logarithmic Regression [Weekly]Hi everyone, There has been many references to the weekly logarithmic regression of Bitcoin that claimed it never failed from the time of its creation by Satoshi Nakamoto. it has been promoted on social media for a long time by serious advocates such as PlanB or many others on twitter. But as you can see on the chart, in November of 2022 the logarithmic regression failed to support the price for the first time in Bitcoin history. Bitcoin is relatively a new class of asset in comparison with Gold for instance and I believe one should be very cautious with it in regard to its short history, especially in times of a possible recession. FYI, Logarithmic regression is a type of regression used to model situations where growth or decay accelerates rapidly at first and then slows over time. more in-depth elaboration of its math and logic is available at : heartbeat.comet.ml Please manage your risk responsibly and make informed decisions. Good luck!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Shamshiri_Investments
6
Harmonic Pattern with Multiple Confluence for Point X and DThis is an example of regression channel with harmonic pattern. By using Simple OHLC Custom Range Interactive, we able make confluence point (blue) to get Point X of Bullish Butterfly. There are many confluence points (orange flag and teal table), which shows Point D of Butterfly starting to complete. For Point D, best to monitor price changes using RSI or other similar RSI (Cyclic RSI, etc). Indicator used : 1. Regression Channel Alternative MTF 2. HH-LL ZZ 3. XABCD Harmonic Pattern Custom Range Interactive 4. Simple OHLC Custom Range Interactive 5. Cyclic RSI High Low With Noise Filter
MYX:FKLI1!Education
by RozaniGhani-RG
DODG - Round 2?DODG looking like it may want to squeeze up more soon. Regression trend down off the recent high showing the potential for a reversal back to the upside with fairly strong divergence off the regression channel midline. BBs have gotten tight again on the 4-hour and shorter timeframes indicating a directional change. Volume appears to be swinging back to bullish. DODG is not oversold on the daily chart. Will look for confirmation of the move and add (or not) based on direction. With lots of strong support at this price from the Feb 2021 run-up, seems like a relatively low risk entry. Maybe they are letting DODG run a bit to help provide some cover for the FTX shenanigans. NFA.
BITTREX:DOGEUSDLong
by Akksujean
2
AMC - Bullish Trend to ContinueAMC price has moved back up into the mid $7 range after recently dipping below $6. This upward trend included a potential break-out on 11/11, and this upward trend is looking like it could continue based on technical indicators I watch. The regression trend midline as presented is providing support on the daily and prior to release of APE this stock had significant price support in the mid-$7 price range. Stoch RSI a tad high but has cooled off slightly, and the stock price could easily continue to move up from here. The Volume Accumulation % has turned bullish as buyers appear to be taking over and the MACD is about to flip above zero. The MACD going positive has resulted in substantial price gains the last two times it has occurred. Price may want to retest the break-out early next week. Will look at the Option chains on a back-test or pull back for a potential good options play next week. Will likely also look to add to shares. Given the overall chart dynamics, technical indicators, and a uber-resilient OBV, seems to be a fairly low risk entry. Further, have to wonder what the on-going demise of FTX and the associated AMC stock tokens traded on that exchange may have on the price. Not financial advice.
NYSE:AMCLong
by Akksujean
APE - possible trend change at T-90APE share price has been heading down since it hit the market nearly 90-days ago back in August 2022. Some discussions state that shorts may need to significantly cover at the T-90 mark, which hits next week. Not sure if the MMs would be required to close/cover at T-90, due the numerous exemptions allowed to them for "market efficiency" reasons, but regardless the APE chart is starting to look more bullish. Regression trend on the 2 hour chart along with a few other technical indicators appears to be showing a potential end to the multi month bearish trend. APE share price has started to drift away from the regression center line suggesting a new trend may be developing. Further the Bollinger's are getting tight on the 2 hour suggesting a near-term pending directional move. Stoch RSI is near - but not yet overbought on the 2-hour chart, and the price can still run from here IMO. The Volume Accumulation % indicator is showing that buyers are finally coming back. Expecting a run to upside on APE fairly soon. No options available on this one. Adding to shares.
ALong
by Akksujean
DODG - just maybeLooks like DODG may be getting closer to finally moving back to the upside. Volume profile is bullish and looks like significant accumulation has been occurring since around late June of 22. Selling appears to have all but completed dried up. Price is moving/staying away from the center line of the longer-term regression trend signaling that the downtrend may be over/ending. Bollinger Bands width staying super low for over a month on the daily signaling a decent move could be in the works, and the OBV showing that the extended drop in price of DODG has not resulted in longer-term holders giving up/selling this coin. With significant support in this price range from early 2021 (that has been tested many times now) I expect DODG could begin moving to the upside again. Obviously the macro picture may have other plans for all of us, so just nibbling here and waiting/watching for further confirmation... NFA.
BITTREX:DOGEUSDLong
by Akksujean
3