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Regression

Bitcoin how far down could go or is the trend to be broken?Looking at a linear regression channel it appears Bitcoin is getting oversold at the lower 2 standard deviation band. It should easily find support at $36.5 - $37k the ranges it is now if it will trend lower. Charting a potential upward trend in a ghost feed for illustration purposes. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by CarpeMomentum
Better days for Coal India ahead!This stock is often overlooked It is a part of Nifty-50, and major weightage in Nifty-Metal Index as well. It seems it is time that we get our eyes on this counter again The line drawn in the chart is a regression line for Coal India. It is downward sloping currently. But notice that price has closed above the regression line on the weekly charts. If we see the last 4 candles on weekly charts, we observe this:- - All four are green candles - Body-size of candles in increasing (getting larger and larger) Bollinger band expansion bodes well for the stock in the near term. Volume: If we see the past 2&1/2 -3 years volumes, they have been much higher as compared to the periods prior to 2018 Another way to convey this volume strength is that "long-term volume averages are at/around lifetime highs" Recent Coal Shortages, elevated coal prices, prevailing inflationary trends are also tailwinds for the stock **************************************************************************************************************************************************************** ABOVE VIEWS ARE PERSONAL. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS BEFORE INVESTING I AM NOT A SEBI REGISTERED ADVISOR ****************************************************************************************************************************************************************
NSE:COALINDIALong
by Samyak_Shah
Fib. channel fitted on linear scale and a 20W extension20W moving average (and a white shadow of a 21W EMA) has historically indicated a good near term cost basis. With a fitted fibonacci slanted channel (and more-or-less randomly extending the 20W average) we can plot a possible path for BTC, dancing between past fib level trend lines for resistance at important price levels, while also holding support at this imagined 20W SMA extension. Of course, depending on the weekly close, this can breakdown form 20W SMA, in which case we continue our crab, I think.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by umutbilgicapple
Sum of all FearsUpdated Wyckoff Distribution Pattern from last years chart. I think this week in crypto it will punch down to the SOW - Sign of Weakness. The weakness is likely to be a result of all the financial sanctions against Russia and their exclusion from SWIFT. Over the weekend there was turmoil over the situation in Ukraine. Russia didn't open their markets for fears it would crash. As asset managers try to reduce exposure to the increasing Russian sanctions, I think there will be some liquidations that will punch through this 2 year regression trend and punch out a new low support for crypto. next 24-48 hours will be key as markets digest the Russia/Ukraine situation.
by SPYvsGME
An optimistic prediction for ETHEarlier in the week we saw ETH broke through the bottom of the long term regression channel that goes back to December 2020. I believe this to be a bullish sign, with selling pressure finally alleviated. I've drawn a very short term regression channel just to visualize the 5 days of bullish price action that followed. We see that RSI is turning up, as well as the Trend Flex Oscillator. My hypothesis assumes that ETH will find its way back to $4500 by mid February, and another ATH is on the radar for April. Of course this is all predicated on the bulls taking back the market for the next three months.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Chart0bserver
Trying to put today's correction into perspective for HODLersAfter an unprecedented profit-taking surge to liquidate $2.6B in longs over the past 12 hours, we might be asking if ETH will ever break $4,000 gain. But if you accept my theory that there is a natural regression channel that ETH has been following all year, this drop today seems perfectly within balance to keep the price moving toward the mean. While we saw a huge shift above the channel in early summer, we see the equal and opposite swing the other way by July. But ultimately the price returned to where it seems most comfortable. Does this mean we won't see $5,000 until December? Perhaps. Or maybe it's going to break to that number much sooner, but it won't be comfortably within the channel until then. COINBASE:ETHUSD
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by Chart0bserver
Ripple (XRP) Model PriceAn article titled Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model was published in March 2019 by "PlanB" with mathematical model used to calculate Bitcoin model price during the time. We know that Ripple has a strong correlation with Bitcoin. But does this correlation have a definite rule? In this study, we examine the relationship between bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio and the ripple(XRP) price. The Halving and the stock-to-flow ratio Stock-to-flow is defined as a relationship between production and current stock that is out there. SF = stock / flow The term "halving" as it relates to Bitcoin has to do with how many Bitcoin tokens are found in a newly created block. Back in 2009, when Bitcoin launched, each block contained 50 BTC, but this amount was set to be reduced by 50% every 210,000 blocks (about 4 years). Today, there have been three halving events, and a block now only contains 6.25 BTC. When the next halving occurs, a block will only contain 3.125 BTC. Halving events will continue until the reward for minors reaches 0 BTC. With each halving, the stock-to-flow ratio increased and Bitcoin experienced a huge bull market that absolutely crushed its previous all-time high. But what exactly does this affect the price of Ripple? Price Model I have used Bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio and Ripple's price data from April 1, 2014 to November 3, 2021 (Daily Close-Price) as the statistical population. Then I used linear regression to determine the relationship between the natural logarithm of the Ripple price and the natural logarithm of the Bitcoin's stock-to-flow (BSF). You can see the results in the image below: Basic Equation : ln(Model Price) = 3.2977 * ln(BSF) - 12.13 The high R-Squared value (R2 = 0.83) indicates a large positive linear association. Then I "winsorized" the statistical data to limit extreme values to reduce the effect of possibly spurious outliers (This process affected less than 4.5% of the total price data). ln(Model Price) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) - 12.214 If we raise the both sides of the equation to the power of e, we will have: ============================================ Final Equation: ■ Model Price = Exp(- 12.214) * BSF ^ 3.3297 Where BSF is Bitcoin's stock-to-flow ============================================ If we put current Bitcoin's stock-to-flow value (54.2) into this equation we get value of 2.95USD. This is the price which is indicated by the model. There is a power law relationship between the market price and Bitcoin's stock-to-flow (BSF). Power laws are interesting because they reveal an underlying regularity in the properties of seemingly random complex systems. I plotted XRP model price (black) over time on the chart. Estimating the range of price movements I also used several bands to estimate the range of price movements and used the residual standard deviation to determine the equation for those bands. Residual STDEV = 0.82188 ln(First-Upper-Band) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) - 12.214 + Residual STDEV => ln(First-Upper-Band) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) – 11.392 => ■ First-Upper-Band = Exp(-11.392) * BSF ^ 3.3297 In the same way: ■ First-Lower-Band = Exp(-13.036) * BSF ^ 3.3297 I also used twice the residual standard deviation to define two extra bands: ■ Second-Upper-Band = Exp(-10.570) * BSF ^ 3.3297 ■ Second-Lower-Band = Exp(-13.858) * BSF ^ 3.3297 These bands can be used to determine overbought and oversold levels. Estimating of the future price movements Because we know that every four years the stock-to-flow ratio, or current circulation relative to new supply, doubles, this metric can be plotted into the future. At the time of the next halving event, Bitcoins will be produced at a rate of 450 BTC / day. There will be around 19,900,000 coins in circulation by August 2025 It is estimated that during first year of Bitcoin (2009) Satoshi Nakamoto (Bitcoin creator) mined around 1 million Bitcoins and did not move them until today. It can be debated if those coins might be lost or Satoshi is just waiting still to sell them but the fact is that they are not moving at all ever since. We simply decrease stock amount for 1 million BTC so stock to flow value would be: BSF = (19,900,000 – 1.000.000) / (450 * 365) =115.07 Thus, Bitcoin's stock-to-flow will increase to around 115 until AUG 2025. If we put this number in the equation: Model Price = Exp(- 12.214) * 114 ^ 3.3297 = 36.06$ Ripple has a fixed supply rate. In AUG 2025, the total number of coins in circulation will be about 56,000,000,000. According to the equation, Ripple's market cap will reach $2 trillion. Note that these studies have been conducted only to better understand price movements and are not a financial advice. Related indicator:
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDEducation
by BobRivera990
4
Regressive VWAP Breakout StrategyStrategy type: Breakout Ingredients: Price, Volume, Regression Prerequisite add-ons (free): Regressive VWAP and Strategy Visualizer Target market: CME:BTC1! or BITSTAMP:BTCUSD - Long Entry on Close crossing over Regressive VWAP - Short Entry on Close crossing under Regressive VWAP - Optional: exit when price retraces to upper band (LX) or lower band (SX) The key to this breakout strategy is the Regressive VWAP, which weighs Price and Volume with Regression Analysis, making the slope and its bands more responsive, with a degree of mean reversion. Below is another example, this time CME_MINI:ES1! .
CME:BTC1!Education
by ChartVPS
Regressive VWAP Band Buffer Strategy on GC 10RRequired add-on (free): NEXT Regressive VWAP Target market: COMEX:GC1! 10R chart Strategy Overview: - Long when price crosses upper band (green) - Short when price crosses lower band (red) - Do not initiate trades in the buffer zone (between the bands) - that is our filter Setting Alerts: Here is how to set price (close) crossing band alerts: open a chart, attach NEXT Regressive VWAP, and right-click on chart -> Add Alert. Condition: Symbol, e.g. ES (representing the close) >> Crossing >> Regressive VWAP >> Upper ( or Lower) Band >> Once Per Bar Close.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by ChartVPS
BTC, Unlikely but last possible case for bears Some speculation here for the bears, even though it is unlikely to pan out from the recent Stoch RSI Cross on the monthly. If ~57.4k gets a correction that may signal control for bears to a path back to retest the 2017 high (its already been retested if you look at the BTCUSD/DXY chart). Currently, it is sitting on a demand vector, c -wave target, and an upper polynomial forecast line of an input of 144 days, which makes me a bit worried about continued resistance that may soon play out toward another correction. I'm uncertain on this playing out atm, but I could see a correction at the global ath, and it being misinterpreted as a double top scenario, with a retest at 53k, and then price discovery to either 80k in the short term or 180k in the long term. Also, the momentum is stronger on the primary wave A on Sep. 7 than the recent c wave, which explains why divergence indicators haven't ran any alarm bells. Entering in a short here is very risky as we could very easily blast to the 2.618 at 80k+, or even the orange forecast target at 73k. This is a scenario that I haven't covered in one of my previous ideas so that I'd share it out.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by linebands
Symmetric Triangle Appears FET/BTC #FET $FET #FetchAIHere we see our FET 12 hour chart and boy we see quite a pullback ! We're now under 1400 . But if you see those black lines on my chart it does look as if we are forming a symmetric triangle shape . Now a chart pattern like that can break upwards or downwards - and by approximately the same amount as those purple lines show (which is the length of the rise near the start of the pattern . ) I expect a break upwards towards the 2900 / 3000 area since a break down out of this pattern would take us to 200 sats area ! And I definitely don't see that coming ! So I say this breaks Bullish . Again many charts look similar with the pullbacks and the MAs but big pullbacks also mean big rises will come . This has possibly been a shakeout situation but there's always big swings in a Bullrun year and I've been expecting some crazy moves so I'm good ! Now a symmetric triangle pattern shouldn't actually play out to the very tip or end of that black triangle . It should choose a direction and break away before we get to the end of the pattern ( I expect a break upwards . ) Also some people might see this as more of a pennant but I disagree since there is not technically a flagpole here and you can't have a pennant without a flagpole . So I say it's a symmetric triangle . Also you can see that pink and blue band we're in ? That's a regression trend channel . And we've definitely wicked to the bottom pink part of it ( as well as hitting a TD Sequential 9 in red on our daily chart . ) So I really expect a turnaround and I expect it soon . This weekend could be interesting but by next week I think this will be on it's way up again .
Long
by shimmeringpath
5