Regressionanalysis
AMD Corrected Again- Buy the Dip Idea LONGAMD on the 15 minute chart breakout through anchord VWAP bands starting on February 29th
from the mean anchored VWAP support. Two days later finding itself extended to the second
upper VWAP band, price corrected over the next day down to the first upper band and then
after a few hours reversed and headed back toward the second upper band going somewhat
sideways and getting there two and a half days later. Price was rejected from that dynamic
resistance and fell into the first band which provided support to close the week.
The Luxalgo regression line forecast is for yet another more up to test the resistance of that
second upper band. I will take a long trade here recognizing that the forecast is for a 10-12%
move in the immediate term. If the forecast is accurate a stop loss will not be necessary. I will
set it at 204 to prevent anything other than an insignificant loss.
Regression Channel - Nifty - Day & 1hr timeframe1. Change in the regression trend at day timeframe, 1st Dec 23
It occurred with Gap formation, which will act as good support
2. Another Regression channel can be observed at 1hr time frame
3. Spinning Top Formation at the weekly timeframe, implicates bearish sentiment in the last week's price movement
Another "change in the trend" is expected
KOSS - ready to moveKOSS daily showing bullish diversion on a number of indicators and is resting on strong historic support levels at the current price. Further the price has been drifting away from the longer term regression trend midline, suggesting a change in direction is occurring.
Per the OBV buyers have generally held onto their shares since the run up that occurred last July. With the Bollinger's getting and staying tight, I expect KOSS will make a move to the upside fairly soon. Trade target is $6. Looking to add shares at ~$4.45. Stop at $4.33.
NFA!
SPY - short squeeze - or more down?Bear Market trend on SPY looking to continue, but could we get another short squeeze similar to the set up leading to the brief Sept squeeze in 2022?
Based upon regression trend analysis and general market strength or lack there of, I don't think we see much of a squeeze for SPY here...will be adding to short positions on these modest price increases that appear to be more related to limited stock buy backs and some year end tape painting. More down on deck IMO.
In terms of seasonality - January 2022 was weak and I expect pretty much the same in 2023 - or worse. Will reassess if we gat a SPY close above 387. NFA.
Bitcoin Cycle Regression Trend AnalysisLooking at price retracements from prior cycle ATH's to ATL's we find bitcoin retracing slightly less each time. Regressing the sequence yields about 82.6% from Bitcoin's 69k cycle ATH, putting the projected cycle low in the 12 K area.
Red channel is a potential channel formation to watch for.
Arrows serve as a visual aid of waning trend momentum cycle over cycle.
Power Function Regression of Bitcoin Tops and BottomsThis is a power function regression of tops and bottoms. There is a separate regression for open, high, low, and close values for tops and bottoms.
There is a separate regression for each possible iteration of bottoms ( both bottoms of a double bottom, only the lowest bottoms of a double bottom, the first bottom of a double bottom, etc.)
The green circles show which data points were used for the regressions. On those days, all OHLC values were used to perform separate regressions.
All power function regressions returned R^2 values over .97, with the vast majority being >0.99
The upper regression lines accurately predicted both tops of the recent cycle. Note that those data points were NOT part of the regression, showing the tremendous predictive potential of this method.
The lower regression lines have a wide range due to the multiple iterations of regressions performed.
Despite the wide range of the bottom regression functions, none of them indicate that the current cycle has reached a bottom.
The equations for each regression can easily be viewed in the script.
BTC Bottom Around $11,000A lot of people have asked “Where is the bottom for Bitcoin?”. Of course nobody knows for sure but it is fun (and arguably important) to speculate.
Here I’ve plotted the BTC price since several months prior to it’s parabolic run in fall 2020 to the present. I’ve added trend lines to smooth out the data and used linear regression channels to highlight the up trending and down trending time periods. The transitions between an up trending environment and a down trending environment are given by the blue vertical lines.
The take home message is that we might see BTC bottom around $11,000 around Oct 2022. This corresponds nicely to the price observed prior to BTC’s parabolic run in fall 2000 and also corresponds quite nicely with projections made with the Phoenix Ascending indicators.
Regressive VWAP Band Buffer Strategy on GC 10RRequired add-on (free): NEXT Regressive VWAP
Target market: COMEX:GC1! 10R chart
Strategy Overview:
- Long when price crosses upper band (green)
- Short when price crosses lower band (red)
- Do not initiate trades in the buffer zone (between the bands) - that is our filter
Setting Alerts:
Here is how to set price (close) crossing band alerts: open a chart, attach NEXT Regressive VWAP, and right-click on chart -> Add Alert. Condition: Symbol, e.g. ES (representing the close) >> Crossing >> Regressive VWAP >> Upper ( or Lower) Band >> Once Per Bar Close.
USD/JPY Bulls in ControlThe USD/JPY pair's 14 period regression line has crossed the 30 period in a pro-trend (90 period regression line) direction, setting up a low risk long opportunity on today's backtest. As usual, this trade is void upon a reversal of the trend, so we put our stop loss at 109.860.
You are so beautiful , to me BAT/BTC #crypto $BATHere we have our Bat bitcoin pair on a 3 day chart .As you can see Bat broke down from that channel it had been in and had a hard dip down as most alts did when Bitcoin pumped over 15 k yesterday making a new yearly high . The rsi has also bottomed out here and I have to say this is looking beautiful to have probably a 100% rise ,in my opinion . Now sitting at 1296 sats and looks like it should easily come up to the bottom of that pitchfork near 2000 sats ( the blue area above our current price . ) But we could also easily go up to that red heart on my chart which is the bottom of that Ichimoku cloud near 2700 sats . That would be over 100% from where we are now but either way it's a good return . First we need to break out of this regression channel we are in ( this downward channel we are in ) we need to find bottom and then start to turnaround and break upward but it is looking highly likely . If we break through that Ichimoku cloud we could see more than 2700 sats but I'm not necessarily expecting that . Such a beautiful chart ....
$4600 Bitcoin as 2021 low ? BTC/USD #Bitcoin $BTC #cryptoHere we see that huge pink and blue regression channel on our 3 day chart . You can see we have reliably remained in this channel since 2018 even through highs and lows. It seems until All Time High is breached above 20k that we will remain in it . That means we will revisit the bottom pink part of the band at some point . If that happened , for instance , next summer of 2021 it would line up perfectly with our bottom trendline ( that thin purple line ) and bring us a $4600 Bitcoin price next summer . You can see it on my chart where the orange B is . Also that area is roughly where our .236 fib is from our full fib . This is a great collection of different indicators that we will see a great price sometime next year . I believe the price could always wick a bit above or below there though , say from 4200 to 5800 but for sure we should see sub 6k and as long as we don't break below our 2019 low of 3150 we are still long-term bullish .Good things ahead !
13300k Incoming ? BTC/USD $BTC #Bitcoin #btc #cryptoBitcoin surged last night above 11800 and right now is 11950 - just under 12k . Surely 12200 will come soon. But more importantly we are now inside the 'blue' band of that pink and blue regression band . We had been in the lower pink part of that band for awhile but last night we broke up into the blue part of this 'regession channel '. That's bullish imo . That should mean we head up to the top of the blue area of the band . That should bring us to 13300 area and possibly higher ! I myself called for 14 k Btc by Halloween , see my idea linked below . Also the 13350 area is a .618 fib on the chart ( running your fibs from 2019 low of 3150 up to 20k . ) That's an important fib and almost certainly we are going there now . That red star on my chart should be the next level up we hit .
Patience definitely brings good things to those who can wait !
Volume Regression Trick (feat. Serbian Užičko Kolo dance music)Okay, this is a simple trick with the built-in Linear Regression indicator. I have used two instances of the indicator, but with different sources. The first one uses price of an instrument and the second one uses volume of an instrument. Yes, it is possible to use non-standard source because the indicator has a special input for that.
As result you get a simple tool for trend analysis and its common cases like trend exhaustion or confirmation.
Good luck and stay cheeki breeki!
Band Practice BTC/USDT #regressionband #Bitcoin $BTC #cryptoThis is that Pink and Blue Regression Band that Bitcoin has been in since the March dump . You can see we just wicked the bottom edge of the pink part of the band earlier today near 10600 . We are still inside it though and unless we go down and close below the band then we are still good to see some upside. See the red arrow ? Near 14k ? That is going to wick us up to the top edge of the blue part of the regression band . Whether we could go even higher after that ,it's always possible . But we seem to be going towards 14k .You can place a regression band on your chart very easily by just placing it and it clicks into place automatically so to speak .You will find it in the left side free indicators in Trading View , the first drop down menu .
KEY/USDT too tight for me ! When pullback ? #selfkey #crypto Sorry ! But that pink and blue regression band is too tight for me ! Whilst there might be slight upside - I honestly feel in mid-summer we should be seeing some pullbacks soon . Some nice pullbacks would be great set ups for end of August buys . Would love to see this pick a direction soon . A pullback to 7xx would be great .