NAV regression channel convergence, 3:1In my experience, charts have a strong attraction to moving towards multiple pattern convergence areas. Why? Because they're zones where a lot of emotion is triggered, aka lots of people will be involved. Market makers need to get you involved. That's why things drop just below your favorite area of the chart, get you emotionally triggered, and _then_ reverse. Or go just past your buy stop limit and then plummet. They go hunting for these trigger areas.
And I think the one circled is where NAV is headed next. Perhaps after some more accumulation / low side (sell for you, buy for them) triggering. Could be a week or even three before move happens. And I could be totally wrong, of course.
Regressionanalysis
The Game of Charts- The best time to go long #BTCUSDLONGSBITFINEX:BTCUSDLONGS
"The chart speaks louder than words"
Time frame: Daily
Sentiment: Bullish (long)
Daily bitcoin technical analysis with fewer words and more information so that you can have maximum information just with a glance without wasting any time.
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Legal Disclaimer:
This is purely a technical analysis and it is to be used for educational, entertainment purposes only. This is not a financial advise to buy or sell Bitcoin and I am not a financial advisor. Do your own research before investing.
BTC Pitchfork Analysis: Attractive short-term buy area Price has greatly respected this pitchfork, and it has served as a useful guide. Here we see that the .5 - .618 area has served as a strong support and resistance zone in the past. As of writing, the 7,400 - 7,500$ area falls in this range and is where price becomes more likely to bounce and test old highs. In my opinion, target points from longs taken in this area should be extremely conservative, with 7,800$ serving as a maximum with profits taken along the way. Although a long becomes attractive in this price area, stop placement is tricky. Previous price action around the .5 - .618 area suggests that stops just below the .5 line are likely to be triggered with price only to reverse and test the .618 area, at the very least. The next attractive area to place a stop is beneath the line-of-best fit ( The red solid line on the chart; calculated via linear regression starting from the all-time-high) or the dotted trend line. However, placing a stop loss beneath these areas reduces the reward-to-risk ratio to unacceptable levels (less than 2:1). Price becomes more likely to bounce and test old levels as price approaches the line-of-best-fit and at the dotted trend line. Although the red circled area on the graph above highlights the first safe area to go long, it might be wise to cost average in. The long could be split up into three buys: At the .5 - .618 area of the pitchfork, the regression line from the all-time-high, and the dotted trend line. A reversal from the line-of-best fit or the trend line would likely allow price to rise to a break even point, as price decreases past this point without retests of prior levels is unlikely.
:Note that the line-of-best fit on the chart above is dynamic and changes with time. You will have to use the regression tool in tradingview to be sure of where it currently resides.
Bitcoin macro-view; non-linear regressionInspired by the logarithmic regression models in the old bitcoin forum thread , I drew up the above macro chart.
Disclaimer: I don't believe this chart has any predictive value. At all. This is for entertainment purposes only. Nonetheless, I find this chart highly fascinating. Bitcoins fractal nature couldn't be more obvious. Some observations:
The baseline has been Bitcoin's absolute bottom for its entire existance. It currently sits at ~2k, and a little under 4k EOY. I consider 2k *highly* unlikely, but 4k seems within the realm of possibilities. For long term trading, this line is worth keeping an eye on; I'll restart my weekly buy-ins if we ever get close (haven't done so since ~1k). This is assuming no fundamental changes to Bitcoin, or the ecosystem.
Connecting all bubble tops will form perfectly parallel channels with the baseline.
Bubble line 1 has acted as restistance on *five* seperate occasions between 2010 and 2017. It has acted as support (short or long term) three to five times, depending on how strict your definition of support is. This single fact by itself is already pretty awesome. We're still above this line. Currently at ~7k. Could a double bubble scenario still be in play?
Bubble line 2 was the top of the March 2013 bubble and December 2017 bubble. It has acted as resistance on the May 2015 dead cat bounce, sending the price down back to Bubble line 1, and eventually baseline. Also some short-lived chop in March 2014 around this line.
Bubble line 3, aka Hopium Line, formed by the 2011 and 2013 super bubbles. Currently at ~50k, and the mythical 100k EOY. Current sentiment in the crypto scene is in the shitter, so is public interest. Hopium line seems only feasible *if* we do some sideways consolidation for a few months (getting rid of panic) *and* some fundamental development that drains alts and solidifies BTC as the one true coin (LN could achieve this).
