$PCYG from micro to small-cap as USA rolls out food traceabilityFSMA Rule 204 is coming into effect after the State of California won a lawsuit against the US Federal Government to enforce the law that was passed but sitting idle since the Obama Admin. Park City Group, Inc. owns the software Repositrak that has the most accreditation from the food safety industry. CEO has the pep in his step as the demand for food traceability solutions will be huge in the years to come as 204 gets rolled out. Read this to learn more about it www.qualityassurancemag.com
Regulations
BNB Versus BTC: A Grim PredictionAlthough this is probably becoming a more 'mainstream' view, I still believe BNB has lower to go. I mainly think that shorting BNBBTC is the best expression of a negative view on BNB and Binance broadly, as I think BTC will probably go higher over the next few months.
As Binance struggles with all these lawsuits and faces issues in and out of the US, its competitors are rising. In my opinion, all exchanges will face lawsuits from the US; it's just that Binance is the biggest target. Recently, regulators or Binance revoked some of its licenses, like the UK, Belgium, Netherlands, and Cyprus.
It's been clear for many years now it has done many shady things for which it would eventually have to pay a heavy price. It's unclear how dire the consequences will be, but it's unlikely that they will escape unscathed. There are also many big questions around BNBchain, which is heavily centralized and controlled by a few people.
BNBBTC peaked when FTX collapsed, a clear sign to go short. Why? Because regulators would have to become more active and mainly focus on Binance as it was selling its FTT and was partially blamed for the collapse. But how low could it go? And why?
In BTC terms, the minimum target is 0.0065. It will probably test that high and sweep the double bottom left untouched. However, as time passes, I think it will go significantly lower and potentially get as low as 0.003.
My reasoning is that 1) More exchanges will rise and compete with Binance, like Coinbase, Gemini, and other TradFi exchanges. Maybe even FTX gets revived (FTX 2.0), 2) BTC will dominate flows and liquidity as the ETF over the next year is almost a certainty, 3) Bitcoin, Ethereum, and their L2s will get the most users. Bnbchain will fail to gain extra traction, 4) Binance will face severe regulatory pressures and lose some court cases.
Finally, as you can see in the chart below, BNBUSD doesn't look healthy at all. It's still extremely overvalued, had a mini blow-off top and failure to reclaim support, has been rejected at the yearly Pivot, and has a massive FVG lower. I believe that the price could get to 150 over the next year, even if Bitcoin keeps rallying.
TRX Break Out Failed, Possibly Heading Under 3 cents in 2024One of the most important things in trading is forego your own wants and want what the market wants. When Glenn Neely and I first came up with the x-wave idea for BTC, I did not want to believe it was true and I continued to WANT my diametric pattern to be the end of the bear market, as it had been for the last few months. As time has gone on it gets harder to deny that what we have formed over the last few months is an x-wave, on both BTC and TRX and the vast majority of crypto assets, and that we are only a little past half way finished with this bear market that began in 2021.
The market is probably going to go to max pain from here. That means another 1-2 years of bear market and the global crypto market cap being slashed in half over that time.
This is based almost entirely on the wave forecast, which indicates the bull market over the last few months is an x-wave. The reason why this is now being considered as an x-wave instead of the beginning of a new bull run is because we did not see the required confirmatory price action following the bottom in January. We should have seen moves much bigger and faster than wave-b, what we had, especially on TRX, was a move which is far smaller and far slower than wave-b. This is not what the beginning of a new bull market looks like.
In particular on TRX it looks like it has formed a contracting triangle after wave-g, which is very weak and not at all how a bull market should begin, but it does form into a very nice looking x-wave. This is likely to be followed by another diametric which could take just as long as the previous one, and will probably be slightly shorter, taking TRX to under 3 cents. After this happens probably sometime in 2024 we will begin to see a move bringing TRX above 1 USD and probably much higher than that. Momentum is also bearish on multiple timeframes including the weekly and the monthly. Neely River Theory has also not given any buy signals on TRX yet and remains in bearish territory.
On top of that, the regulatory issues in the US, and the lack of new money coming from other parts of the world like China is a major headwind for the whole market. A Wells Notice received by Coinbase at the same time the SEC sued Justin Sun implies that Coinbase will soon be charged with operating an unlicensed securities exchange, and may have to pause and seriously wind down operations until the court case is finished. The exact timing of when this lawsuit will be filed is not clear, but one thing is almost certain is they will be sued eventually after receiving a well's notice, and the comments made by Brian Armstrong indicate they are coming after their core spot business model. This is being considered as a possible regulatory trigger for this protracted bear market, however there are many other possible events which could cause negative headwinds especially from a regulatory standpoint, like Ripple losing their lawsuit or seeing it drag on for another year or two, and further ugly developments in Justin Sun's suit or other developers being sued. The reason this is significant is because it will seriously hinder new money coming in from the US, and short of mainland China opening retail crypto exchanges it's hard to imagine anyway that new money is going to be coming into the market at the same pace as 2017 or 2013. The lawsuits against Ripple and Justin Sun are also very significant because they hinder big developer's ability to effectively market their cryptos to US-based persons, or even through social media platforms like Twitter which may have US citizens browsing on there, opening developers up to liability if they advertise on these platforms or within the US, again severely reducing the flow of new money into the market, which is required for any real bull market to emerge.
Whatever the eventual trigger is for this bear market, most important to this analysis is the Wave theory which indicates, based on the rule of reverse logic, that we are only near the middle of this bear market and this could drag on until next year. As much as I didn't want to believe this at first and I wanted to assume even if we do get a wave down it will be quick, that is most likely not what the market wants. Based on the best wave analysis possible, all signs point to this going to max pain, which is a very deep, protracted bear market that could drag on well into next year.
The attitudes of many traders I have seen, especially to bearish ideas, are an echo of the peak in November 2021 which I called almost perfectly. The regulatory headwinds are also an echo of the SEC's DeFi crackdown which began in late 2021. And the wave theory and technical indicators here are clear and convincing, just like in 2021. Over leveraged crypto firms like Microstrategy and some BTC miners that are at risk of collapse during a protracted bear market are an echo of Luna, 3AC, and FTX. There may still be some small upside left in wave-x, but short of a massive breakout which would need to go almost completely vertical and send us flying past the velocity of wave-b (which is very unlikely), then we are probably going to form a top here very soon and begin a major decent towards max pain, finally squeezing out these over leveraged crypto firms and creating a temporary fire sale of cryptos.
BTC At Major Resistance, Regulatory Headwinds RemainSeems like we are hitting a strong bearish divergence here. Breaking down from this triangle would likely mean we go to at least 20-25k, and breaking down from that support could mean we go under $16k, and likely head towards $10k. Still seems probable that Microstrategy/Saylor are forced out of at least most of their position, more so than they already have been (via dilutive equity sales).
Regulatory and systemic headwinds from the US are still weighing on the market as well, and we could see more attacks on the industry coming from the SEC, CFTC, etc. Coinbase recently received a wells notice, which means they are likely going to be sued by the SEC in the near future. This could continue to put a major damper on new money flowing in from the US.
🅱️ (₿) Why Bitcoin Will Rise Suddenly Beyond $150,000 ExplainedRegulations are coming to the cryptocurrency markets...
Regulations are not necessarily a bad thing.
They can be bad for certain cities or countries but they are not bad as a whole.
This is just a phase and regulations are part of our normal financial markets and reality.
As a market grows, the need for regulation arises based on the monetary and political systems we use this day.
We have tens of thousands of altcoins.
These altcoins are available for buying/selling, trading, across major exchanges.
Exchanges are against regulations because it messes up their business, so when the altcoins start to be regulated the major exchanges will delist them.
Why Bitcoin will rise to $150,000 and beyond suddenly?
Hundreds of altcoins are likely to be labeled securities all at once or in a short period of time.
This will have a strong effect within the cryptocurrency markets.
Everybody buying/selling securities will fall under the wing of certain agencies.
Exchanges offering these "securities", currently altcoins, will rush to remove them as they don't trade securities, they want to avoid trouble.
When hundreds of big and small altcoins projects are removed from major exchanges all at once, this will produce a strong effect on crypto, inciting money to fly from well and less known altcoins to the king of crypto, Bitcoin.
That's how suddenly everything can change and the market evolve.
Such a move would see the top cryptocurrency centralize most of the market capitalization that the smaller and less known altcoins now enjoy.
What is your take about this possibility?
How do you see regulations affecting the altcoins market in the months and years to come?
Remember, whatever happens it will be a surprise... And these persons that control these agencies will make it as bad as possible for everybody involved as they hate our guts.
That's the old generation... They have lots to worry about because the system they built is truly messed up.
Since cryptocurrency offers a solution, a new reality, prosperity, freedom an alternative...
They will try their best to blow it up.
Namaste.
Is YOUR Broker Regulated? Find out hereHere is a list of eight of the main financial regulatory agencies that are backed with strict regulatory enforcement in other countries…
You’ll need to make sure the broker you choose is approved by one of the below.
South Africa (FSCA) - The Financial Sector Conduct Authority
USA (SEC) – Securities And Exchange Commission
Eurozone (MiFID) – Markets In Financial Instruments Directive
UK (FCA) – Financial Conduct Authority
Australia (ASIC) – Australian Securities and Investments Commission
India (SEBI) – Securities and Exchange Board of India
Japan (JSDA) – Japan Securities Dealers Association
Switzerland (FINMA) – Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority
Am I missing any? Let me know in the comments :)
Trade well, live free.
Timon
MATI Trader
Financial trader since 2003
BTC TO $250,000 BEFORE 2025!1) We are not in a bear market just yet, simply because we have not broken out of the support level and closed to the downside....even if we did, we still could shoot back up, as its happened before.
2) Regulations are coming, we could see BTC crash a little further before we see it go back up. However when regulations come 99% of the 19,378 cryptos will die!
- leaving us with around 190-200 legitimate projects that have a massive use case, utility and solve a massive problem.
#HEX consolidation continues #HVF pattern still valid Notice how the selling of this 3rd down draft is at a reduced angle in time.
In amidst the regulatory pressure from Gensler
and his wide net approach of calling everything a security
It is more important to ever to note the unique properties of HEX
No ICO
No Premine
I year launch phase
during which Bitcoin holders were able to claim and mint their own HEX
using a cryptographic signature
completed product from day 1
No roadmap
or team of developers to fund.
Users mint their own coins/rewards/interest
No centralised authority is required.
Coins trade on DEX's
In essence true defi
Bitcoin closer to $65,000 than $0RSI on the daily went down close to 30RSI. 4hr chart is already heading up and the hourly is set to make a decision sometime tonight or by tomorrow. I am bullish so I see us heading back up to $50,000 which has been resistance. Once we break this resistance, $65,000 and above will be exponential. Regulations and bans on Bitcoin up to this point seem weak for the long term Hodler.
Crypto Regulations Incoming!The US government knows BTC competes directly with the US Dollar, and will do anything to stop it.
I'm guessing they will release regulations later this year.
Bitcoin future is promising, even in a downturn. Sure, we are in a downturn, a bear market; so what?
With a long term line of sight, it's easy to see where Bitcoin is going. Every country has laws that govern. Heavyweights like the United States and China impact global markets. Considering Bitcoin has the attention of the two largest economies in the world, it's understandable that the market is affected. Take the blinders off and look at the long term environment for Bitcoin. I will share what I see.
Path one:
Bitcoin in the next year establishes confidence with the support of the United States regulatory environment. China and the United States make a long term trade deal and Bitcoin is open for business between the two countries as a valid means for transacting wealth. China's digital yen is utilized for global stock exchanges and the United States citizens will use Bitcoin as a vehicle between the two currencies (US Dollar <> Bitcoin <> Yen).
Heres why. The dollar is losing foothold as a controlling global currency. With the digital yen hitting the global markets, the rest of the world gains immediate access to new financial tools based on the yen. The United States can use Bitcoin to compete as the transition to a digital dollar occurs. The United States will play a wait-and-see approach to a digital dollar, and they might just use Bitcoin as the vehicle to explore its options.
If this path plays out, the value of Bitcoin will explode. For instance, fast track adoption in various stock exchanges across the world. Digital assets of various types will grow and allow cross-chain functionality with Bitcoin blockchain. Debt for countries will reduce due to new asset class creating a means for governments to secure new wealth for their fiat systems.
Path two:
Bitcoin continues to have issues with unfair policies set by various countries (especially, the United States and China). As regulations are muddy, Bitcoin continues to see extream two-way volatility. It will be emotional with up and down movement that causes whiplash. Fortunately, it can't last forever. The trend will change and governments will adopt friendly policies to please global fintech demand. Once the dust settles and regulations have a clear path for working with Bitcoin technology, we will see a continuation with the global trend in Bitcoin wealth generation.
Path three:
Bitcoin is outlawed in China due to an anti-competition stance with the digital yen. The United States continues to attempt a trade deal and faces central banking issues with the digital yen and de-dollarization of China. The United States desires to compete and opens all markets to access the US Dollar using Bitcoin in various market verticals like ETF and so forth. Matter of fact, this might be one reason for such delays to move this direction. If this occurs, the United States will adopt an open FinTech market to the global community to combat China and its de-dollarization with the digital yen. Bitcoin will explode and be used as a means to reduce the United States deficit. We might get close to a world war with China if this occurs, so it's not a great path to see come to fruition.
Path four:
Bitcoin is outlawed by China and the United States. Allies of these countries will adopt the trend. Global markets suffer, riots break out, and the fight for privacy becomes a global issue. A global depression occurs that has never been seen before. Due to global communication Bitcoin rises from its ashes and creates a new global economy. If this happens, the Bitcoin value will go near zero and explode to incredible valuation.
Path five:
Bitcoin is outlawed by all governments. The network becomes weak and is taken over due to a lack of contribution to maturing its codebase. It's an all-out digital mess and becomes worthless. This path seems the least likely to occur.
In the end, most paths you can imagine lead to Bitcoin gaining new wealth generation abilities with services being adopted to complement regulatory environments. The long term outlook seems favorable for the technology. For this reason, I love blockchain technologies and will continue to build the skillset to compete in future economic environments in tech.
If it does not work out, oh well, it's been a wonderful ride. I will have stories to tell for generations to come :)
If you read this far, share your outlook. What is your thoughts regarding the potential paths for Bitcoin?
$POLY touching support again, double bottom, should go upI consider this as a high risk trade, because of BTC dominance we might see a low-price action, or maybe neutral, BUT! We're at a double bottom.
With Binance/Bittrex US regulations, $POLY is a few of the coins that fits right into these regulations and can be trade by anyone, anywhere, so, more buyers.
Playing this with a tight SL.
DYOR, and trade safe.
