Daily Consolidation Potential Reboundsince the weekly reversal in favor of bears for AMEX:MJ etf and cannabis stocks, the daily bounce has turned back downward, and is approaching recent multi week lows.
this set of oscilatiry trend regularity indicators show when there is potential for retracement in the opposite direction should these levels hold.
Regulatoryrisk
Coinbase Wins VASP Crypto Approval in France Ahead of MiCA Coinbase Wins VASP Crypto Approval in France Ahead of MiCA
Crypto exchange Coinbase has secured key approval from the French financial market regulator to offer crypto services in France, according to a statement issued on Thursday.
The development paves the way for Coinbase to expand its European services ahead of the Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) regime, creating a robust framework for crypto-native companies to offer regulated products and services in the EU bloc.
Coinbase Secures VASP Registration in France
On December 21, Coinbase announced that the Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF) had granted the company a virtual asset service provider (VASP) approval, a green light to operate in the domestic market.
The VASP registration will allow Coinbase to offer users in France a full suite of retail, institutional, and ecosystem products and services. This includes custody of digital assets, buying and selling of digital assets in legal tender, and digital assets trading against other digital assets.
BTCUSD: Update, CME is the driving force here...I found the culprit of my confusion regarding the last upswing in $BTCUSD, the spot chart has become unreliable compared to the CME futures chart, at least when it comes to Time@Mode analysis. Finer details of how weekly bar ranges look, impact the analysis outcome. I missed a signal indicating that we could go long, like 4 weeks ago, and given sentiment didn't think it made sense to get a signal targeting new all time highs either. In the CME chart we see a clearly expired monthly trend, and a clean weekly down swing which has panned out. As well as a new weekly upswing currently taking place. I suspect the outcome of regulatory uncertainty will be that price remains sideways/down and price doesn't make new highs for a long time. Regulations won't come into play after 2023, so perhaps a bit before that, the market will move out of this sideways state. It is unclear when we will have more clarity regarding the final decision in the infrastructure bill, but market participants will be monitoring it closely.
I think my main long term view is correct, that a long term trend ended, and now we either go sideways or down for a similar amount of time as previous bear markets, roughly until April 2022, this is also in line with expectations from monthly T@M signals in the CME chart here presented. As for the daily and weekly uptrend, there is a big resistance cluster above, and a weekly level that should hold, around 50k. I don't think price can jump over that barrier easily.
Daily trend expires by Friday, weekly expires in two more Fridays after. Let's keep an eye on developments here, I anticipate this market will be driven by institutional portfolio managers rebalancing, which likely will contribute to price being stuck in a sideways range until there is regulatory clarity in the future. This will also help sentiment cool down, as it is I can't fathom price going into a steady uptrend and reaching 80-100k or whatever.
I hope you feel as relieved as me, after figuring out this puzzle. Take it easy, we will have a ton of time to analyze and think about this market's trend. Price won't deviate far, specially not up, I am pretty sure of that now. Even more so than before.
We can trade the daily signals as they form, up and down, but definitely don't fomo in and buy all in and expect unreasonable moves (same can be said for shorting, trade small or don't trade).
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.