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Medical Properties Trust | MPW | Long at $4.30Medical Properties Trust NYSE:MPW is a beaten down medical facility REIT currently in a price consolidation phase. The company's stock price is at a level not seen since the 2008-2009 financial crisis - but this doesn't mean it's a "steal" right now for investors. Here's why (from Wiki): "In 2022, The Wall Street Journal reported that Medical Properties Trust had made multiple loans to its largest tenant Steward Health Care and paid above market value to Steward for property that Steward then leased from Medical Properties. The article alleged that this was done to help Steward pay off debts to Cerberus Capital Management, while Medical Properties claimed that the amounts paid for the properties were fair based on its underwriting and internal appraisals for the properties. MPT referenced Steward’s dependability in paying approximately $1.2 billion in rent and interest since 2016 as further evidence of prudent underwriting. MPT also cited its 2022 sale of a 50% stake in the Massachusetts real estate it bought from Steward as validation of its strategy. In March 2022, Macquarie Infrastructure Partners V entered into a $1.7 billion partnership with MPT to own eight hospitals leased to Steward, resulting in a 47% gain on sale of real estate for MPT. Another Wall Street Journal report also claimed that the company engaged in risky acquisitions with tenants who were likely to default on rent payments later while the compensation of executives of the company was partially linked to the volume of acquisitions they could make. The company clarified that it does not directly compensate executives for acquisition volume, and that its compensation plan provides for reducing executive compensation if acquisitions do not increase the company's per-share value." On September 11, 2024, NYSE:MPW announced a settlement agreement with Steward Health Care that ended their relationship and restored NYSE:MPW 's control over its real estate. So, it's a highly risky investment, but the cat may be out of the bag and a turnaround may be ahead (?). The country's need for medical facilities will be dire as the baby-boom generation gets older. With a 7% dividend and *potential* change in business profitability ahead, NYSE:MPW is at a personal buy zone of $4.30. Warning: It may take several years for a recovery, though, or bankruptcy is ahead. Target #1 = $6.15 Target #2 = $8.00 Target #3 = $9.75
NYSE:MPWLong
by WorthlessViews
1
CAPITALAND Investments (9C1) - BUY!BUY: $2.8 - $2.95 TP: $3.44 $3.68 CapitaLand Investment will be a major beneficiary of lower rates from income growth for its REIT holdings and enabling accretive fee transactions. Another positive is the massive re-rating of China following the recent monetary stimulus by the central bank and support by the Politburo will benefit the economy indirectly. Similar to the Fed’s quantitative easing, it will be the wealth effect of higher equity and bond prices that boosts confidence and spending. It also encourages borrowing as households and private enterprises are deleveraging despite the record-low interest rates. Personally. I am buying and holding for my long term dividends portfolio.
SGX:9CILong
by Gold_D_Roger
MPW Medical Properties Trust concerning float short of 34.96% Medical Properties Trust, a real estate investment trust specializing in acquiring and developing net-leased hospital properties since 2003, currently has a concerning float short of 34.96% as of June 20. This high short interest signals significant bearish sentiment among investors. For the first quarter of FY2024, MPW reported a stark decline in total revenue, dropping to $271.3 million from $350.2 million in the previous year. The company also faced a staggering net loss of $736 million, or $1.23 per share. This substantial loss was primarily due to $693 million in impairments related to the Steward Health Care System. Adding to the company's woes, Prospect Medical Holdings, one of MPW's largest and struggling tenants, revealed it had received a subpoena last year from the Justice Department. This development further underscores the potential risks and challenges facing Medical Properties Trust. I'm looking at purchasing the $3 strike price puts expiring on January 17, 2025, currently priced at $0.40.
NYSE:MPWShort
by TopgOptions
Has MPW Bottomed Out?NYSE:MPW has pumped 19.60%+ today, and I received a great question about whether MPW has bottomed out. There was an opportunity to buy within the buy zone, and MPW had a strong rebound out of this buy zone. The momentum is currently bullish, and there is the possibility that MPW continues trending up towards the light blue trendline, which gives a price target around $6-7 price levels. This pump is caused by bullish news that Steward is selling assets to reduce its debt, which is a scenario that I've been discussing in past updates. It is possible for a selloff after this news, and for now MPW is at a $4.60 resistance level. It is important to monitor this resistance level to see if MPW gets a rejection or break here. With a rejection, I think there can be more buying opportunities around $3-4 price levels. MPW had a strong rebound off the orange zone, flipping it from resistance into support. I think MPW could retest this orange zone at some point, and I still think MPW could retest the green buy zone during a fed pivot.
NYSE:MPW
by realchartchamp
GREED, GREED, GREED but what follows?About a month back, I made a solid move in the market that sparked a strong rally. Now, as we near the end of a strong earnings season, I'm in a neutral position, but I'm taking steps to secure gains by trimming my positions. I reckon a decent pullback would be beneficial before considering further upward movement. There's quite a few gaps to fill due to some impulsive buying, and I believe reallocating capital is crucial for a healthier market, especially considering how much weight big tech holds in the SPY. NVIDIA's earnings showed remarkable strength. They surpassed already optimistic expectations by a significant 10%. The $600 target set by premium sellers seemed overly ambitious, yet those sellers managed to benefit from the earnings report released last week. Many institutional investors are operating under the assumption of a smooth landing in 2024, envisioning reduced rates, a depreciating US Dollar, a weakened Chinese macroeconomy, and sustained dominance in Large Cap Tech. The consensus among fund managers leans towards the belief that the Fed's rate hike cycle is nearing its end, with expectations of forthcoming decreases in short-term rates. Additionally, there's a noticeable shift of interest towards Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and Japanese stocks. (Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, BLOOMBERG)
AMEX:SPY
by SPADESASSETS
Octodec ready for the next push up to R10.87 - NB Investment TipOctodec has had a challenging year with the price constantly on the downtrend. That was until 27 June 2023... We can see a huge wick where there was most likely buying from Smart Money and financial institutions... Since then the support has been tested numerous times and it's since then formed a W Formation (Double Bottom)... We do need the price to break above the neckline for further upside but things are looking good. IMPORTANT TRADING TIP AND MEDIUM TERM INVESTMENT TIP Also, with lower liquid and high volatile stocks, I like to extend the stop loss quite broad. I normally move the stop loss BELOW the entire pattern to give room in case there are jumpy moves along the process to stop us out... ALSO because there aren't CFDs or derivatives, these strategy works very well for medium term investments using technicals and fundamentals. Other indicators state the following: Price<200 RSI>50 - Bullish Target R10.87 ABOUT THE COMPANY: Octodec Investments Ltd is a real estate investment trust (REIT) operating primarily in South Africa. It was established in 1959 and is listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). Octodec focuses on property investment and property management, primarily in the commercial and residential sectors. Company Background: Octodec Investments Ltd is a well-established and respected real estate investment company in South Africa. Real Estate Focus: Octodec primarily invests in and manages a diverse portfolio of properties, including retail, commercial, and residential real estate. Geographic Focus: Its property portfolio is mainly situated in key urban areas within South Africa, including Johannesburg, Pretoria, and other high-demand regions. Property Portfolio: The company owns, manages, and leases a range of properties, including office buildings, shopping centers, and residential complexes. Income Generation: Octodec earns income through rental collections from its property portfolio.
JSE:OCTLong
by Timonrosso
What is a REIT and how do they work?A. Let’s start with the basics: REITs stands for 'Real Estate Investment Trusts'. These are essentially property companies that are listed on the stock market which you'll find pretty much most of them on TradingView. So how do they work? Step 1: An individual decides to invest in a REIT company. Step 2: The money is then collected into a large pool (like all trusts). Step 3: The pooled money is then invested into the property that the company either owns, operates or finances. Step 4: Over time the company starts to make revenue and profit. Step 5: The profits are then accounted and collected. Step 6: The profits are then distributed in parts to the initial investors who helped finance the company through a REIT. Sounds great in theory… But in reality, there is always a catch… And that catch is timing. The Big five SA Reits have lost over R100bn in value since 2018. The BIG five REITs are: 1. Growthpoint 2. Redefine 3. Resilient 4. Vukile and 5. Hyprop. Of course, this could be seen as an opportunity but there are several other factors we need to consider before deciding the best time to trade this type of asset. A trick will be to overlay the five companies on a chart. See how they move and operate in conjunction to each other. And then we can decide which are buys or sells. Apples with apples.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
Growthpoint looking to point up after W breakoutW Formation has formed on the property company over the last 3 months. Today we are seeing a strong breakout to the upside. Also, the downtrend has broken and the price has moved into a bull market showing strong momentym up. Other indicators show upside to come: 7>21 Bullish Price<200 - Bearish but, price action is showing upside to come. RSI>50 Target R14.44 ABOUT THE COMPANY Growthpoint Properties Limited is a South African-based real estate investment trust (REIT) and one of the largest property investment companies in the country. Name: Growthpoint Properties Limited is commonly known as Growthpoint. Establishment: Growthpoint was founded in 1987 and has grown to become a prominent player in the South African property market. REIT Status: Growthpoint is classified as a real estate investment trust (REIT), which means it enjoys certain tax advantages and must distribute a significant portion of its earnings as dividends to shareholders. International Presence: While primarily focused on the South African property market, Growthpoint has expanded its footprint internationally, with investments in several countries. Diverse Portfolio: Growthpoint's property portfolio is diverse and includes office buildings, industrial properties, shopping centers, and retail properties. Property Assets: The company owns and manages numerous properties, including landmark buildings and shopping malls across South Africa and abroad. SOME OFFICES AND SHOPPING CENTRES INCLUDE: OFFICES: Sandton City Office Tower The Place 85 Grayston Drive Growthpoint Kings Park The Estuaries SHOPPING CENTRES: Canal Walk Shopping Centre East Rand Mall The Atrium on 5th Northgate Shopping Centre The Constantia Village
JSE:GRTLong
by Timonrosso
What does real estate have to do with AI?To shed some light on the potential of artificial intelligence (AI), and discuss the role of the supporting infrastructure enabling this boom, we were delighted to leverage the expertise of Eric Rothman, Portfolio Manager, Real Estate Securities with CenterSquare. CenterSquare is a dedicated real estate investment manager, with around $14 billion under management, and Eric has been with the company for 17 years. Before we explore the Nvidia story and the relationship between AI, data centres, and ‘new economy real estate’, let’s define what that latter phrase means. New economy real estate is supporting technological advancements, like AI What is ‘new economy real estate’? Eric noted that there is so much beyond the traditional ‘4 foodgroups’ of real estate: 1) retail 2) office 3) residential 4) industrial When CenterSquare defines the ‘new economy real estate’ space, Eric noted that the larger components include data centres, cell phone towers, and warehouses dedicated to new economy logistics—things like ecommerce fulfillment. This is far from traditional, industrial real estate. Some of the smaller segments include life sciences, cold storage, and office space that is uniquely tailored to technology tenants, typically located in specific cities with focused pools of technology talent. Such cities might be Seattle, San Francisco or New York. These types of ‘real estate’, most notably data centres, are vital to support growing technologies like AI. The Nvidia story—$1 trillion to be spent? There has been a huge amount of excitement and discussion around Nvidia as the stock has enjoyed overnight success on the coattails of the AI boom. ‘$1 trillion’ is a big number (and a nice headline), but it’s very difficult to forecast where generative AI will take us. Some people say it is like inventing the wheel or the personal computer. This is a big claim, and only time will tell. If people are thinking about ‘data centre REITs’ as an investment, they have to understand that data centres just fulfil the provision of power, cooling, and connectivity. The data centre REITs do not actually own the computers. The tenants invest in the computers. One thing that is absolutely true, however, is that as an owner, you love to see the tenants putting money into the space that they are renting. Why? This makes it less likely they are going to leave. Therefore, a greater investment in AI technology and computing power may be a positive signal for the supporting real estate (like data centres). Eric’s conclusion, whether thinking about the impact of generative AI on data centre REITs or cell phone tower REITs, was that the move in share prices hasn’t reflected where we could be going yet. Connectivity and data centres will be vital components for artificial intelligence, but it’s not yet clear how or when investors are going to reflect that in the real estate prices. Eric noted that investors frequently forget about the buildings until later in a cycle or a trend. Greater computing power = greater energy consumption? Another aspect that we discussed was energy usage. Eric estimated that newer AI-focused semiconductors draw more power, not just a little bit more power but a step change in power consumption. A chart from the ‘Decadal Plan for Semiconductors’, a research report by Semiconductor Research Corporation allows us to compare compute energy to the world's energy production. A critical point to keep in mind is that ‘something has to give’; simply continuing to add computational capacity without thinking of efficiency or energy resources will eventually hit a wall. However, if history is any guide, we should expect that, as demand and investment in computational resources increases, there will be the potential for gains in efficiency, improved model design, and even different energy resources that may not yet exist today. Since many investors may be less familiar with cell phone towers, Eric made sure to mention just how strong of a business model he believes this to be. Now, it’s true that these REITs have not performed well in the past 18-months, but we are right in the middle of the current 5G rollout. Tenants have long leases, there is lots of demand, and there are even consumer price index (CPI) escalators that increase the rent to be collected. Conclusion: a different way to think about real estate It was great to be able to spend some time speaking with Eric and to learn about what’s happening both in the broader real estate market as well as in the more specific, new economy, ‘tech-focused’ market. The full discussion is accessible on behind the markets podcast This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
SPARKS:AIX
by aneekaguptaWTE
1
Inv H &S with Vukile showing strong upside soon to R16.51Inv Head and Shoulders seems to be forming with Vukile Property. We have recently had a breakout out of the downtrend and now there seems to be a consolidation of some kind. I expect the range to form somewhat a Right SHoulder, before the next up side is imminent. 7>21 Price>200 RSI >50 Target R16.51 ABOUT THE COMPANY Vukile Property Fund is a South Africa-based Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT). The company was established in June 2004. Vukile is listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and the Namibian Stock Exchange (NSX). It focuses primarily on the acquisition, management, and development of retail properties, specifically shopping centers. Some shopping centers include: East Rand Mall - Boksburg, Gauteng Pine Crest Shopping Centre - Pinetown, KwaZulu-Natal Meadowdale Mall - Germiston, Gauteng Dobsonville Shopping Centre - Soweto, Gauteng Randburg Square - Randburg, Gauteng Hammersdale Junction - Hammersdale, K The company had a strong presence in South Africa and Spain. In South Africa, Vukile's portfolio is predominantly retail-focused, with a wide range of assets across provinces. In Spain, the company operates through its subsidiary Castellana Properties, owning a substantial retail portfolio. Vukile's strategy involves maintaining a diversified property portfolio to mitigate risk. The company is committed to the principles of good corporate governance and ethics. Vukile also focuses on sustainability initiatives, striving to limit the environmental impact of its operations. HOW IT GOT ITS NAME "Vukile," it's derived from the Zulu language and generally translates to "stand up" or "arise". This name may reflect the company's commitment to growth and development, as well as its South African roots.
JSE:VKELong
by Timonrosso
Grand City Properties: Oversold dusted jewel? Maybe not yet.Back in Oct 13, 2022 I made this analysis: Compared to Vonovia, Grand City has a double better debt position than its big competitor. Earnings payout are 23% and cash payout 64%. Vonovia's respective figures are 67% and 61%. Debt quity ratio at 57% is highly different from Vonovia's at 117%. Grand City may experiment higher costs of debt refinancing in 2023 but not as much as Vonovia in relative numbers. Grand City is able to breath better within this whole interest rates hike environment than mostly any other REIT. Sometimes, it's better to aim at 1,5B valued companies than 15B valued ones. But then, on March 16th, 2023 GYC presented its FY 2022 results. And my analysis changed to this one: Unfortunately, Grand City decided not to pay 2022 dividend due to macroeconomic uncertainty. The results were somewhat weak even though positive. I see GYC going down to 4.42€ in the next months. Better to avoid January and February 2013 lows were around 4.42€. Current PER is 9.51 and dividend yield has been cut to 0% in 2022. Interest rates keep rising at the moment and before the SVB, FRC, Credit Suisse fall; investors thought they would go up until 5.5-6%. Even though debt is lower than its bigger competitor Vonovia and according to GYC website the company’s debt have a 95% interest hedging ratio, which is expected to reduce to 91% as some interest rate hedging matures throughout 2023; in an environment of increasing interest rates, investors could switch from REITs to bonds. The fact that GYC cut its dividend to 0, may look very disciplined and responsible. But a REIT who does not pay dividend is no longer attractive in my opinion. Whether it will be at 10-15€ in the next 4-5 years, that depends on: inflation stabilisation, interest rates beginning to drop at comfortable levels (1-3%), reduced banking crisis uncertainty and reduced recession fears, among other factors. It's also important to track the FFO and AFFO and compare these two metrics with competitors in order to see if the stock has been oversold or overbought. If Central Banks stop raising interest rates or inflation drops further, then REITs will be one of the first sectors to recover as they may be experiencing overselling. When I analysed GYC back in Oct, I saw good fundamental reasons to invest in it. Macroeconomic uncertainty is now overweighting those fundamental reasons. But when every aspect in the macroeconomic environment seemed to doom the expectations of GYC stock, I analysed the fundamentals of the company: Analysis FY 2022 results: Net Debt/EBITDA = 11.4x. AFFO diminished -1.26%. FFO/per share +3% at 1.14€. P/FFO (Today) = 7/1.14 = 6.14. Guidance FY 2023 FFO/share to decrease -13.16% max to 0.99€/share. P/FFO (2023e) = 7/0.99 = 7.07. Sector P/FFO for Residential REITs in US has been moving steadily between 17 and 25 in 2010-2018 period (S&P Global Market Intelligence, Nareit 2018). GYC is clearly undervalued already. Technical aspect doesn’t show any signs of recovery yet. RSI(14) suggesting completely oversold but selling volume keeps increasing. CONCLUSION We may be set to turnaround very soon on GYC. However, the fact that a REIT does not pay dividends is something clearly penalising the stock value. Therefore, I would still wait and see how the market develops and if GYC reaches 4.40€ level, maybe it could act as a historic support level from January 2013 and bounce back upwards from there.
XETR:GYCShort
by alexinve
As a Matter of Fact - Metaverse Is Here To StayThis was a 2021 Bubble Darling, where all the low-tech Boomers were battling hand over fist to put Liquidity in. Now that its under 1 billion market cap, the additional downside is very minimal... perhaps $2.00 The upside for a reflexive short squeeze is appealing. This company has strong name recognition and an understandable narrative to sell. $3.10 spot at post look to exit at $5.50 or let it run more Our identities have no bodies, so, unlike you, we cannot obtain order by physical coercion. We believe that from ethics, enlightened self-interest, and the commonweal, our governance will emerge.
NASDAQ:MTTRLong
by noam_chom
BSRTF a low cap reit with room to growHere we have a low cap REIT that I can see will grow into the billions (one day soon, but not so soon as I would like). Immigration has ben slow these last covid years but that tide is turning now so Texas should grow. California is expensive and people are moving to Texas so it should grow. Tesla and other companies are moving to Texas so Texas should grow. Work from anywhere culture is moving to Texas so Texas should grow. People need places to live, Shopping centers need ten year leases to build out Lows, and Target stores, to service these new people. From a chart technical standpoint I would like to see another bounce or retest the lows of the price of this company. If I do see a retest am buying more. There is a gap that has yet to be filled further down from here from way back in 2020. That does not mean it needs to get filled, but if it does, I am buying more. A friend of a friend works at this company and he is smart and his friend is smart and believes the management is smart. REIT's are not in favor right now - the large interest rates have scared off some investors, but those rates might come down, so the first to buy land with variable interest rate loan will have the refinancing build right into the loan. Imagine your interest rate falling every year of your loan for the first five years? That is what I would do if i worked at this company. If you buy a house for 1 million and the interest rate is 7% the note will be a monster, but if that rate falls to 3.5% over several years you will be happy and the interest payments will be cut in half. Take the other half of that interest payment and put it in escrow to save up for a downpayment on a new property. The investment will grow in value as the price of that interest payment will be factored into the assessment of your property and all the properties in the neighborhood. A year from now you could leverage the value for the property to buy more property. That is what I think these guys are going to be doing for the next few years. That is why I will buy the dip if there ever is one.
OTC:BSRTFLong
by altcoinnerd
GEO: Michael Burry bought more GEO Michael Burry has bought more shares of this REIT so I thought I'd give a look at the chart for those who want to follow him. What the chart is saying: Big downtrend since May 2017. In May 2021, the stock has started a consolidation/base in form of a range between 5.5 and 9.54. This range could be a bottom formation. Note that bottoming pattern takes time and this one could continue for a few more weeks/months. However a break out of the range (9.54) could confirm a change of trend and a long trade/investment. Keep monitoring this stock in the next few days/weeks, set an alert at the top of the range. If it breaks out of the range, the first potential targets are 11, 13.90 and 17. I remain neutral for now. On watch.
NYSE:GEO
by Elpidaldo
10
Real Estate Blue Chip SPG Simon Property“This is the paradox of public space: even if everyone knows an unpleasant fact, saying it in public changes everything. One of the first measures taken by the new Bolshevik government in 1918 was to make public the entire corpus of tsarist secret diplomacy, all the secret agreements, the secret clauses of public agreements etc. There too the target was the entire functioning of the state apparatuses of power.” Simon Property Group seeks hyper-privatization of property, by which they can expand their capital and power network Political outcomes will drive the future for this corporation. Midterms of 2022 will be a catalyst to the upside, but then 2024 presidential cycle holds the true power.
NYSE:SPGLong
by noam_chom