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Medical Properties Trust | MPW | Long at $4.30Medical Properties Trust NYSE:MPW is a beaten down medical facility REIT currently in a price consolidation phase. The company's stock price is at a level not seen since the 2008-2009 financial crisis - but this doesn't mean it's a "steal" right now for investors. Here's why (from Wiki): "In 2022, The Wall Street Journal reported that Medical Properties Trust had made multiple loans to its largest tenant Steward Health Care and paid above market value to Steward for property that Steward then leased from Medical Properties. The article alleged that this was done to help Steward pay off debts to Cerberus Capital Management, while Medical Properties claimed that the amounts paid for the properties were fair based on its underwriting and internal appraisals for the properties. MPT referenced Steward’s dependability in paying approximately $1.2 billion in rent and interest since 2016 as further evidence of prudent underwriting. MPT also cited its 2022 sale of a 50% stake in the Massachusetts real estate it bought from Steward as validation of its strategy. In March 2022, Macquarie Infrastructure Partners V entered into a $1.7 billion partnership with MPT to own eight hospitals leased to Steward, resulting in a 47% gain on sale of real estate for MPT. Another Wall Street Journal report also claimed that the company engaged in risky acquisitions with tenants who were likely to default on rent payments later while the compensation of executives of the company was partially linked to the volume of acquisitions they could make. The company clarified that it does not directly compensate executives for acquisition volume, and that its compensation plan provides for reducing executive compensation if acquisitions do not increase the company's per-share value." On September 11, 2024, NYSE:MPW announced a settlement agreement with Steward Health Care that ended their relationship and restored NYSE:MPW 's control over its real estate. So, it's a highly risky investment, but the cat may be out of the bag and a turnaround may be ahead (?). The country's need for medical facilities will be dire as the baby-boom generation gets older. With a 7% dividend and *potential* change in business profitability ahead, NYSE:MPW is at a personal buy zone of $4.30. Warning: It may take several years for a recovery, though, or bankruptcy is ahead. Target #1 = $6.15 Target #2 = $8.00 Target #3 = $9.75
NYSE:MPWLong
by WorthlessViews
1
Has MPW Bottomed Out?NYSE:MPW has pumped 19.60%+ today, and I received a great question about whether MPW has bottomed out. There was an opportunity to buy within the buy zone, and MPW had a strong rebound out of this buy zone. The momentum is currently bullish, and there is the possibility that MPW continues trending up towards the light blue trendline, which gives a price target around $6-7 price levels. This pump is caused by bullish news that Steward is selling assets to reduce its debt, which is a scenario that I've been discussing in past updates. It is possible for a selloff after this news, and for now MPW is at a $4.60 resistance level. It is important to monitor this resistance level to see if MPW gets a rejection or break here. With a rejection, I think there can be more buying opportunities around $3-4 price levels. MPW had a strong rebound off the orange zone, flipping it from resistance into support. I think MPW could retest this orange zone at some point, and I still think MPW could retest the green buy zone during a fed pivot.
NYSE:MPW
by realchartchamp
What is a REIT and how do they work?A. Let’s start with the basics: REITs stands for 'Real Estate Investment Trusts'. These are essentially property companies that are listed on the stock market which you'll find pretty much most of them on TradingView. So how do they work? Step 1: An individual decides to invest in a REIT company. Step 2: The money is then collected into a large pool (like all trusts). Step 3: The pooled money is then invested into the property that the company either owns, operates or finances. Step 4: Over time the company starts to make revenue and profit. Step 5: The profits are then accounted and collected. Step 6: The profits are then distributed in parts to the initial investors who helped finance the company through a REIT. Sounds great in theory… But in reality, there is always a catch… And that catch is timing. The Big five SA Reits have lost over R100bn in value since 2018. The BIG five REITs are: 1. Growthpoint 2. Redefine 3. Resilient 4. Vukile and 5. Hyprop. Of course, this could be seen as an opportunity but there are several other factors we need to consider before deciding the best time to trade this type of asset. A trick will be to overlay the five companies on a chart. See how they move and operate in conjunction to each other. And then we can decide which are buys or sells. Apples with apples.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
Grand City Properties: Oversold dusted jewel? Maybe not yet.Back in Oct 13, 2022 I made this analysis: Compared to Vonovia, Grand City has a double better debt position than its big competitor. Earnings payout are 23% and cash payout 64%. Vonovia's respective figures are 67% and 61%. Debt quity ratio at 57% is highly different from Vonovia's at 117%. Grand City may experiment higher costs of debt refinancing in 2023 but not as much as Vonovia in relative numbers. Grand City is able to breath better within this whole interest rates hike environment than mostly any other REIT. Sometimes, it's better to aim at 1,5B valued companies than 15B valued ones. But then, on March 16th, 2023 GYC presented its FY 2022 results. And my analysis changed to this one: Unfortunately, Grand City decided not to pay 2022 dividend due to macroeconomic uncertainty. The results were somewhat weak even though positive. I see GYC going down to 4.42€ in the next months. Better to avoid January and February 2013 lows were around 4.42€. Current PER is 9.51 and dividend yield has been cut to 0% in 2022. Interest rates keep rising at the moment and before the SVB, FRC, Credit Suisse fall; investors thought they would go up until 5.5-6%. Even though debt is lower than its bigger competitor Vonovia and according to GYC website the company’s debt have a 95% interest hedging ratio, which is expected to reduce to 91% as some interest rate hedging matures throughout 2023; in an environment of increasing interest rates, investors could switch from REITs to bonds. The fact that GYC cut its dividend to 0, may look very disciplined and responsible. But a REIT who does not pay dividend is no longer attractive in my opinion. Whether it will be at 10-15€ in the next 4-5 years, that depends on: inflation stabilisation, interest rates beginning to drop at comfortable levels (1-3%), reduced banking crisis uncertainty and reduced recession fears, among other factors. It's also important to track the FFO and AFFO and compare these two metrics with competitors in order to see if the stock has been oversold or overbought. If Central Banks stop raising interest rates or inflation drops further, then REITs will be one of the first sectors to recover as they may be experiencing overselling. When I analysed GYC back in Oct, I saw good fundamental reasons to invest in it. Macroeconomic uncertainty is now overweighting those fundamental reasons. But when every aspect in the macroeconomic environment seemed to doom the expectations of GYC stock, I analysed the fundamentals of the company: Analysis FY 2022 results: Net Debt/EBITDA = 11.4x. AFFO diminished -1.26%. FFO/per share +3% at 1.14€. P/FFO (Today) = 7/1.14 = 6.14. Guidance FY 2023 FFO/share to decrease -13.16% max to 0.99€/share. P/FFO (2023e) = 7/0.99 = 7.07. Sector P/FFO for Residential REITs in US has been moving steadily between 17 and 25 in 2010-2018 period (S&P Global Market Intelligence, Nareit 2018). GYC is clearly undervalued already. Technical aspect doesn’t show any signs of recovery yet. RSI(14) suggesting completely oversold but selling volume keeps increasing. CONCLUSION We may be set to turnaround very soon on GYC. However, the fact that a REIT does not pay dividends is something clearly penalising the stock value. Therefore, I would still wait and see how the market develops and if GYC reaches 4.40€ level, maybe it could act as a historic support level from January 2013 and bounce back upwards from there.
XETR:GYCShort
by alexinve
OHI (Tentative Buy)Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. engages in the provision of financing and capital to the long-term healthcare industry with a particular focus on skilled nursing facilities. Its portfolio consists of long-term leases and mortgage agreements. The company was founded on March 31, 1992 and is headquartered in Hunt Valley, MD. OHI has been in a selling trend for the last two quarters of 2021, and appears to be heading toward a price breakout of the current resistance. Why? 3 Potential Indicators: 1) A bullish wedge is forming on the long-term daily chart. 2) RSI has crossed 50, is moving toward the upside 3) Candles in the last few days are trading above the Bollinger Bands, signaling price breakout to higher high and higher low in the coming weeks. Entrance Strategy: When price breaks a current resistance level. Exit Strategy: Take profits at new ATH or after 10% increase.
NYSE:OHILong
by lydiascherr777
ALX - Rising Revenue is Not Enough Alexander's, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust. The firm engages in leasing, managing, developing, and redeveloping its properties. Its operating properties are located in the greater New York City metropolitan area. The company was founded on May 16, 1955, and is headquartered in Paramus, NJ. Despite some nontechnical indicators (i.e rising revenue & location), ALX seems positioned to continue losing value. Fibonacci retracement from the previous All-Time High (ATH) is in a "red" zone, the lowest level of support in the trend. This could indicate "nowhere to go but up." So I decided to test that hypothesis with two indicators: 1) RSI and 2) Bollinger Bands. Both indicators insinuate an imminent downward price trend. Entry: After support level at the time of publishing is broken. Exit: After 5% -10% drop in price
NYSE:ALXShort
by lydiascherr777
Cofinimmo (COFB.br) bearish scenario:The technical figure Triangle can be found in the Belgian company Cofinimmo SA(COFB.br) at daily chart. Cofinimmo is the foremost listed Belgian real estate company specialising in rental property. The company owns a property portfolio worth over €4 billion, representing a total area of nearly 2,000,000m² spread over Belgium, The Netherlands, France, Germany and Spain. Its main investment segments are healthcare properties (nursing and care homes, revalidation clinics, psychiatric clinics, medical office buildings,...) and offices, and property of distribution networks (portfolio of pubs let to AB InBev and portfolio of insurance branches let to MAAF). The Triangle has broken through the support line on 21/12/2021, if the price holds below this level you can have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 17 days towards 131.30 EUR. Your stop loss order according to experts should be placed at 140.40 EUR if you decide to enter this position. Belgium-based real estate investor, Cofinimmo, has announced another round of acquisitions. It will acquire three nursing and care homes in Germany – two in Essenheim and one in Bruchmühlbach-Miesau, and plans to build a new property in Andalucia, Spain. The investment for the three sites in Germany amounts to approximately €39m. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
EURONEXT:COFBShort
by legacyFXofficial
ASX 200 A-REIT INDEX - Birds Eye View - Wave 3 In ProgressThis chart is very interesting for a few reasons. It basically says that real estate topped in 2007 and has never recovered. Every trick in the book has been thrown at the property market in Australia in an effort to prevent it from collapsing, I would say this is also happening in other countries. Blue Wave 1 started in 2007 and ended in 2009. Blue Wave 2 started in 2009 and ended in February 2020. -According to the waves labelled for Wave 2 you can see on the RSI that Wave C was strong. -You can also see that Wave iii of Wave E was also a strong move on the RSI which confirms this count. Green Wave 1 represents the start of Blue Wave 3 which occurred from February to March in 2020. Green Wave 2 appears to have ended on the 29th of December 2020 and a break of 1281 will confirm this as we move into a third-of-a-third wave. According to AriasWave this count is accurate and a sign of things to come. One thing I always make a point of is that the news interacts with the waves and not the other way around, therefore trying to pin this on one particular reason is pointless. There are a myriad of reasons why this is happening, the cycle in interest rates and the cycle in the US Dollar are only 2 of these reasons. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
ASX:XPJ
by AriasWave
Crown Castle, as both a REIT and 5G play looks ready to moveCrown Castle is first a REIT and then a 5G play. The industry is ramping up infrastructure and will do well in the years following as the tower provider leases more and more capacity to the new 5G rollout. Given the surge in Work From Home (WFH) as well as continued advances in technology, 5G will be the mainstay in just a couple of short years. This will empower the engine of revenue growth for this company as well as the earnings and dividends. I'm looking for a consistent move upward over the next 5-7 years from this. #CCI #5G #REIT NYSE:CCI
NYSE:CCILong
by ByDHTaylor
1