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Medical Properties Trust | MPW | Long at $4.30Medical Properties Trust NYSE:MPW is a beaten down medical facility REIT currently in a price consolidation phase. The company's stock price is at a level not seen since the 2008-2009 financial crisis - but this doesn't mean it's a "steal" right now for investors. Here's why (from Wiki): "In 2022, The Wall Street Journal reported that Medical Properties Trust had made multiple loans to its largest tenant Steward Health Care and paid above market value to Steward for property that Steward then leased from Medical Properties. The article alleged that this was done to help Steward pay off debts to Cerberus Capital Management, while Medical Properties claimed that the amounts paid for the properties were fair based on its underwriting and internal appraisals for the properties. MPT referenced Steward’s dependability in paying approximately $1.2 billion in rent and interest since 2016 as further evidence of prudent underwriting. MPT also cited its 2022 sale of a 50% stake in the Massachusetts real estate it bought from Steward as validation of its strategy. In March 2022, Macquarie Infrastructure Partners V entered into a $1.7 billion partnership with MPT to own eight hospitals leased to Steward, resulting in a 47% gain on sale of real estate for MPT. Another Wall Street Journal report also claimed that the company engaged in risky acquisitions with tenants who were likely to default on rent payments later while the compensation of executives of the company was partially linked to the volume of acquisitions they could make. The company clarified that it does not directly compensate executives for acquisition volume, and that its compensation plan provides for reducing executive compensation if acquisitions do not increase the company's per-share value." On September 11, 2024, NYSE:MPW announced a settlement agreement with Steward Health Care that ended their relationship and restored NYSE:MPW 's control over its real estate. So, it's a highly risky investment, but the cat may be out of the bag and a turnaround may be ahead (?). The country's need for medical facilities will be dire as the baby-boom generation gets older. With a 7% dividend and *potential* change in business profitability ahead, NYSE:MPW is at a personal buy zone of $4.30. Warning: It may take several years for a recovery, though, or bankruptcy is ahead. Target #1 = $6.15 Target #2 = $8.00 Target #3 = $9.75
NYSE:MPWLong
by WorthlessViews
1
CAPITALAND Investments (9C1) - BUY!BUY: $2.8 - $2.95 TP: $3.44 $3.68 CapitaLand Investment will be a major beneficiary of lower rates from income growth for its REIT holdings and enabling accretive fee transactions. Another positive is the massive re-rating of China following the recent monetary stimulus by the central bank and support by the Politburo will benefit the economy indirectly. Similar to the Fed’s quantitative easing, it will be the wealth effect of higher equity and bond prices that boosts confidence and spending. It also encourages borrowing as households and private enterprises are deleveraging despite the record-low interest rates. Personally. I am buying and holding for my long term dividends portfolio.
SGX:9CILong
by Gold_D_Roger
#FED causing Commercial Real Estate/ Banking CollapseCommercial real estate "..talk of black swans of an economic nature forcing the Fed to print trillions again. Commercial real estate may be the next domino to fall. Back in 2008, default rates rose to 9%, up from 1%, as interest rates rose. Today, the damage to commercial real estate loans which total about $2.7 trillion could be far greater. Over 40% of the US work force now works remotely since May 2020. The decline in demand for commercial properties has worsened by recent tech layoffs. The value of office sector REITs have fallen by about 55% which translates into a 33% reduction in the value of office buildings. The default rate of between 10-20% in commercial real estate which was the lower end seen during the worst of 2008 would result in about $80-160 billion in additional bank losses. This would be ruinous for hundreds of smaller and midsize regional banks that have already been weakened by higher interest rates. The 2008 financial crisis spread from the housing sector to the rest of the economy as large banks with exposure to housing took tremendous losses. Today, the Fed has created a moral hazard in guaranteeing depositors. Bank executives may take bigger risks if they believe the Fed will step in to protect depositors."
NYSE:AREShort
by BallaJi
Has MPW Bottomed Out?NYSE:MPW has pumped 19.60%+ today, and I received a great question about whether MPW has bottomed out. There was an opportunity to buy within the buy zone, and MPW had a strong rebound out of this buy zone. The momentum is currently bullish, and there is the possibility that MPW continues trending up towards the light blue trendline, which gives a price target around $6-7 price levels. This pump is caused by bullish news that Steward is selling assets to reduce its debt, which is a scenario that I've been discussing in past updates. It is possible for a selloff after this news, and for now MPW is at a $4.60 resistance level. It is important to monitor this resistance level to see if MPW gets a rejection or break here. With a rejection, I think there can be more buying opportunities around $3-4 price levels. MPW had a strong rebound off the orange zone, flipping it from resistance into support. I think MPW could retest this orange zone at some point, and I still think MPW could retest the green buy zone during a fed pivot.
NYSE:MPW
by realchartchamp
Octodec ready for the next push up to R10.87 - NB Investment TipOctodec has had a challenging year with the price constantly on the downtrend. That was until 27 June 2023... We can see a huge wick where there was most likely buying from Smart Money and financial institutions... Since then the support has been tested numerous times and it's since then formed a W Formation (Double Bottom)... We do need the price to break above the neckline for further upside but things are looking good. IMPORTANT TRADING TIP AND MEDIUM TERM INVESTMENT TIP Also, with lower liquid and high volatile stocks, I like to extend the stop loss quite broad. I normally move the stop loss BELOW the entire pattern to give room in case there are jumpy moves along the process to stop us out... ALSO because there aren't CFDs or derivatives, these strategy works very well for medium term investments using technicals and fundamentals. Other indicators state the following: Price<200 RSI>50 - Bullish Target R10.87 ABOUT THE COMPANY: Octodec Investments Ltd is a real estate investment trust (REIT) operating primarily in South Africa. It was established in 1959 and is listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). Octodec focuses on property investment and property management, primarily in the commercial and residential sectors. Company Background: Octodec Investments Ltd is a well-established and respected real estate investment company in South Africa. Real Estate Focus: Octodec primarily invests in and manages a diverse portfolio of properties, including retail, commercial, and residential real estate. Geographic Focus: Its property portfolio is mainly situated in key urban areas within South Africa, including Johannesburg, Pretoria, and other high-demand regions. Property Portfolio: The company owns, manages, and leases a range of properties, including office buildings, shopping centers, and residential complexes. Income Generation: Octodec earns income through rental collections from its property portfolio.
JSE:OCTLong
by Timonrosso
What is a REIT and how do they work?A. Let’s start with the basics: REITs stands for 'Real Estate Investment Trusts'. These are essentially property companies that are listed on the stock market which you'll find pretty much most of them on TradingView. So how do they work? Step 1: An individual decides to invest in a REIT company. Step 2: The money is then collected into a large pool (like all trusts). Step 3: The pooled money is then invested into the property that the company either owns, operates or finances. Step 4: Over time the company starts to make revenue and profit. Step 5: The profits are then accounted and collected. Step 6: The profits are then distributed in parts to the initial investors who helped finance the company through a REIT. Sounds great in theory… But in reality, there is always a catch… And that catch is timing. The Big five SA Reits have lost over R100bn in value since 2018. The BIG five REITs are: 1. Growthpoint 2. Redefine 3. Resilient 4. Vukile and 5. Hyprop. Of course, this could be seen as an opportunity but there are several other factors we need to consider before deciding the best time to trade this type of asset. A trick will be to overlay the five companies on a chart. See how they move and operate in conjunction to each other. And then we can decide which are buys or sells. Apples with apples.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
Berkshire Hathaway: Bearish Gartley Hinting at a 40-60% DeclineBerkshire Hathaway is currently trading at the HOP level of a Bearish Gartley and at this HOP level, upon close, will likely confirm a Bearish PPO Confirmation Arrow as the PPO Oscillator itself gets closer and closer to breaking below a well established trend line. Along with that, we have some Bearish Divergence on the MACD and the price action we got at the HOP resulted in a green Shooting Star Candlestick Reversal Pattern that we are working on confirming via a Weekly Bearish Engulfing. If all goes as expected, I would think that the shares of Berkshire Hathaway will first pull back 27% which would put at the 2022 lows but after that I think it will likely pullback around 40%-60% to fill an unresolved gap at $314,850.00
NYSE:BRK.AShort
by RizeSenpai
REM: Partial Rise within an Ascending Broadening WedgeAs the Fed Funds Rate rises and the rise in Consumer Credit Balances come to a halt, I think it will lead to Deflationary Pressure. This pressure would likely send Short Term Bond Yields lower starting with the ultra short ones like the 1 year and below, when this happens I think we could then see this be reflected within the Mortgage Back Securities (MBS) and if that's the case, this ETF will likely fall because it mostly holds a lot of very Short Term MBSs with maturities ranging between 0 and 5 Years, and as the rate of the MBSs fall so will the Demand for them which would likely lead to lower prices. Due to what I explained above I think that this Harmonic ABCD BAMM break down will likely happen and send REM down to the 1.13 Fibonacci Extension.
CBOE:REMShort
by RizeSenpai
Consumer Credit: Harmonically Set Up to Return Down To TrendConsumer Credit has recently risen to over $1 Trillion and this rise happens to align with a 2.618 Fibonacci Extension and the PCZ of a Bearish ABCD. If we view this based on the expectations of Harmonics and Fibonacci, we would expect that this is indeed the top and that we will now begin a retrace back down to trend, which could likely land us between the 50% and 61.8% retrace down at $600–$500 Billion as those retraces line up with the trend line we have formed.
FRED:CCLACBW027SBOGShort
by RizeSenpai
EQIX: A way to Short AI & Commercial Real Estate in One StockThis company deals with renting out Commercial Real Estate, mostly to do with Datacenters and other Internet Connected Operations, and due to that, this makes it a perfect stock to get Bearish Exposure to if you are both Bearish on the AI Big Tech Mania and Bearish on Commercial REITs One of the main risks for this stock is if their biggest clients, like MSFT and AMZN begin to shift away from using Equinix datacenters in favor of creating and using their own in order to save on costs. If MSFT's recent earnings call is anything to go off of, they are currently desperate to increase profit margins and reduce the costs associated with their business operations especially the costs associated with working with third parties. One area in which they could cut costs would be to reduce their reliance on Equinix datacenters, but in general as the AI Mania begins to wind down we could likely see the Equinix enterprise consumer base shrink even more, in which case we could see price begin to correct to reflect upon their lower cashflows as both the AI and Commercial REITs sectors continue to slow. Beyond that: We have a Bearish Shark with MACD and PPO Bearish Divergence and PPO Arrow Confirmation; with hardly any support below us. If it plays out we could see a decline of about 50% from the current price level.
NASDAQ:EQIXShort
by RizeSenpai
1
Redefine Trade Update still on the way down to R3.20 BUT...Symmetrical Triangle formed last year and the price broke below the apex. It has been a very slow moving trade analysis, but that's what happens with blue chip companies. The companies do what they can to fight for the price (and rightfully to do so). 21>7 >200 - Mixed RSI <50 Bearish divergence Target R3.20 ABOUT The company Redefine Properties was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Sandton, South Africa. It is also listed on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) as a secondary listing. Redefine Properties owns and manages a portfolio of over 500 properties valued at more than ZAR 70 billion as of March 2023. The portfolio includes office buildings, shopping centers, industrial properties, and hotels. The company has a well-diversified customer base, including multinational corporations, small and medium-sized enterprises, and government entities. They own many famous buildings like Alice Lane towers (Sandton) Centurion Mall (Pretoria) Kyalami Corner East Rand Mall, Boksburg, Rose Bank Mall Benmore Gardens etc...
JSE:RDFShort
by Timonrosso
Grand City Properties: Oversold dusted jewel? Maybe not yet.Back in Oct 13, 2022 I made this analysis: Compared to Vonovia, Grand City has a double better debt position than its big competitor. Earnings payout are 23% and cash payout 64%. Vonovia's respective figures are 67% and 61%. Debt quity ratio at 57% is highly different from Vonovia's at 117%. Grand City may experiment higher costs of debt refinancing in 2023 but not as much as Vonovia in relative numbers. Grand City is able to breath better within this whole interest rates hike environment than mostly any other REIT. Sometimes, it's better to aim at 1,5B valued companies than 15B valued ones. But then, on March 16th, 2023 GYC presented its FY 2022 results. And my analysis changed to this one: Unfortunately, Grand City decided not to pay 2022 dividend due to macroeconomic uncertainty. The results were somewhat weak even though positive. I see GYC going down to 4.42€ in the next months. Better to avoid January and February 2013 lows were around 4.42€. Current PER is 9.51 and dividend yield has been cut to 0% in 2022. Interest rates keep rising at the moment and before the SVB, FRC, Credit Suisse fall; investors thought they would go up until 5.5-6%. Even though debt is lower than its bigger competitor Vonovia and according to GYC website the company’s debt have a 95% interest hedging ratio, which is expected to reduce to 91% as some interest rate hedging matures throughout 2023; in an environment of increasing interest rates, investors could switch from REITs to bonds. The fact that GYC cut its dividend to 0, may look very disciplined and responsible. But a REIT who does not pay dividend is no longer attractive in my opinion. Whether it will be at 10-15€ in the next 4-5 years, that depends on: inflation stabilisation, interest rates beginning to drop at comfortable levels (1-3%), reduced banking crisis uncertainty and reduced recession fears, among other factors. It's also important to track the FFO and AFFO and compare these two metrics with competitors in order to see if the stock has been oversold or overbought. If Central Banks stop raising interest rates or inflation drops further, then REITs will be one of the first sectors to recover as they may be experiencing overselling. When I analysed GYC back in Oct, I saw good fundamental reasons to invest in it. Macroeconomic uncertainty is now overweighting those fundamental reasons. But when every aspect in the macroeconomic environment seemed to doom the expectations of GYC stock, I analysed the fundamentals of the company: Analysis FY 2022 results: Net Debt/EBITDA = 11.4x. AFFO diminished -1.26%. FFO/per share +3% at 1.14€. P/FFO (Today) = 7/1.14 = 6.14. Guidance FY 2023 FFO/share to decrease -13.16% max to 0.99€/share. P/FFO (2023e) = 7/0.99 = 7.07. Sector P/FFO for Residential REITs in US has been moving steadily between 17 and 25 in 2010-2018 period (S&P Global Market Intelligence, Nareit 2018). GYC is clearly undervalued already. Technical aspect doesn’t show any signs of recovery yet. RSI(14) suggesting completely oversold but selling volume keeps increasing. CONCLUSION We may be set to turnaround very soon on GYC. However, the fact that a REIT does not pay dividends is something clearly penalising the stock value. Therefore, I would still wait and see how the market develops and if GYC reaches 4.40€ level, maybe it could act as a historic support level from January 2013 and bounce back upwards from there.
XETR:GYCShort
by alexinve