Open - XRE Long Put (S3)Trade for XRE:
- Speculative trade.
- Long put 16 strike Dec 17 2021 for 0.30 debit.
GLHF
- DPT
Reits
Black Swan - The Housing BubbleSpeculative Idea for MBB (Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF):
- Why is there a speculative housing bubble in the middle of a crisis?
- "A major catalyst of the general financial crisis of 2008 was the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007, when a rising wave of defaults on home mortgages sent the value of mortgage backed securities plunging."
- "They're in trouble right now," as Colleen Denzler, an investment manager at Smith Capital Investors, which has about $350 billion in assets under management (AUM), and who previously was the global head of fixed income at Janus Henderson, told BI. She is now underweight MBS. "Bubbles get popped when things turn around either through some sort of crisis or through a change in what caused them," she said. "This could be a while, and that's how we're positioned," she added.
- "Other complex debt securities whose plunging values were a catalyst for the 2008 financial crisis are rising in popularity today. The synthetic CDO, a pool of derivatives linked to various categories of debt, is among them. Pessimists fear that history may be set to repeat itself, and that cautious investors should take cover."
- NY Fed Report: Total household debt rose by $85 billion to $14.64 trillion.
GLHF
- DPT
Technical Tuesday - Canadian REITsTechnical Tuesday:
Technical reasons to be short Canadian REITs (XRE):
Mid Term (Trend):
- Median Line with 80% chance to return to median line, once re-enters channel (Andrews)
- Rising Wedge
Short Term (Trade):
- Exhaustion Gap (x2)
- Double Top
- Dark Cloud Cover
Speculated movement within John Hill-Gann.
Elliot Wave Projection forecasted.
GLHF
- DPT
Top 5 US REITs Poised to Resume The Bull Run (Targets Inside)REITs have been one of the market outperformers in the last 3 months despite the increasing of the market volatility.
In this video, you will find out the top 5 US REITs - NYSE:BRX , NASDAQ:REG , NYSE:UDR , NYSE:KRG , NYSE:RPAI poised to resume the bull run and start the markup phase (Wyckoff Phase E).
MACRO - Housing Double BottomModel Forecast for the Housing & Real Estate Market:
Synopsis:
Underlying Conditions:
Federal Deficit:
Debt needs to be paid. Household Debt Payments have bottomed.
Household Debt Service Payments as a Percentage of Disposable Personal Income (TDSP):
Business Inventories will fall:
Housing Starts are falling, and can fall much lower before recovery:
Housing Sales have very little business rising and will certainly fall:
Supply:
The price of lumber is at a top and will certainly fall by EOY:
The supply of labor will increase - Employment has downside before recovery:
Capacity Utilization has some downside:
Demand:
As real estate investors who bought the bottom in 2020, who have have enjoyed several 100% unrealized gains decide the real estate bull market is over, they will clean up house and leave retail holding the bag on the now worthless assets. Of course, at this time, banks will be accumulating them at the bottom to prepare for the next bull market!
Targets for REIT Campaign:
EQR - High-Value Residential:
BDN - Suburban Offices - WFH culture is here to stay, and the demand for office-space will greatly decrease:
RYN - Timberland Real Estate & Lumber - Double exposure to both lumber and Real Estate:
SLG - Manhattan Commercial - I expect financial disruption as well, and the high value real estate there will crumble like a house of cards:
Watching:
Warehousing - Due to pandemic shipping backlog, warehousing real estate should see a boom, but as 3D printing & AV shipping improve, they will become fantastic short targets, as they become obsolete!
GLHF
- DPT
Your stomach in knots? Maybe these could cheer you upI am sure this is not the best time to make stock pick. But the market is actually not as bad as it may seems. If I look at my recent pick, actually only the china related stocks like BEKE/YSG are down because of the downtrend sentiment with nasdaq. If you look at my pick in ASX, all of the are still up since my recommendation, actually way up.
One of the thesis I like a lot is about post covid recovery. I made some pick on travel and resources and they still hold strong. And today I want to make a few more recommendation on properties REITs because of a few reason
- unemployment and spending will improve post covid, people would definitely look into the property market again
- Australia gov is loosening the immigration policy to attract high income immigrants from Hong Kong, China and South East Asia which would drive an upward demand on property.
- stock price of property REITS are still way below water compare to mar-2020 when the stock market melt down.
There are a lot of REITs available in the ASX market, and I am just sharing a few which contain a good mix of residential, retail and industrial. Of course i like their recent price action on the charts.
I personally would spread an equal amount of investment across these three and look for at least 30% gain in 3 months.
ASX:VCX
ASX:SCG
ASX:MGR
Good luck guys.
XLRE, under the radar breakout in playIf anyone has been watching the SPDR sectors lately, XLRE has quietly outperformed. Strength in REITS usually signifies a strengthening economy. Maybe this is an under the radar reopening play? Options premiums are dirt cheap and might be worth a look. Anyway, the charts speak for themselves.
The Ski Mask is on......ViciThis is a nice covid play for me. Financials look good. Reputable REIT. Fresh. Entertainment based. I like it for growth.
AEW UK REIT breaks out on good newsStill trading at a discount to NAV
But today's good news shows conditions are improving
Dividend is almost 10% p.a. and is unlikely to be cut (yet!)
ARR Buy OpportunityIf price breaks the 38.2 Fib level which is also a trendline break, the next level of resistance is at 16.08 with a potential pause at the 61.8 Fib level. This is also a good ETF to own because the dividend is yield is 11.59%.
ASCENDAS REIT (A17U) WATCH LISTWaiting for a significant pull back (highlighted blue horizontal zone), before commencing a strong upward trend.
CCI-0.53*SBAC $CCI (Crown Castle Int Corp) vs. $SBAC(SBA Commun)Quantamental Tools for Proprietary and Retail Investors.
Statistical Arbitrage Opportunities Delivered to Your Inbox.
QuantChart. io
Short 100 $CCI
Long 53 $SBAC
Mean Reversion Time: 8 Trading Days
CCI-0.53*SBAC $SBAC(SBA Commun) vs. $CCI (Crown Castle Int Corp)Quantamental Tools for Proprietary and Retail Investors.
Statistical Arbitrage Opportunities Delivered to Your Inbox.
QuantChart. io
Short 100 $CCI
Long 53 $SBAC
Mean Reversion Time: 8 Trading Days
Mapletree Ind Trust ME8U watch $3.19The uptrend of ME8U is impressive since 2011.
Price is expected to trade between $3.04 and $3.34 in the ST
A break upside of $3.34 will resume its uptrend.
Pivot : $3.19
A break of $3.19 will lead to ST weakness to to test $3.04
A break of $3.04 will see a MT correction to $2.17
C38U Possible Long SetupPrice is at a very respected trend line support (numerous touches), and in confluence with the 50EMA as support.
Bullish engulfing / tweezer bottom candlestick pattern formed at this level, adding to the bullish setup.
Stochastic indicator approaching the oversold area, suggesting further bullish action.
Possible profit targets could include the 200EMA, the upper trend line level, or the previous high.
Stop loss levels could include be below the wick of the current candle, below the previous low, or below the horizontal line denoting past resistance, which could be tested as new support.
Let me know your thoughts.
8952 JAPAN REIT - more than 10% short-term gains ahead8952 is tracing wave C up from a primary corrective pattern. The most probable target range is between 679,000 to 697,000.If price crosses down 595,000 this analysis should be reviewed. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
REET finished counter-trend rally. New lows ahead.REET finished intermediate wave B up and it initiated the downtrend to new lows in intermediate wave C. If price crosses up 23,6, this analysis should be reviewed. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
HPP - downtrend to between 24 and 22HPP is tracing intermediate wave B down of primary corrective wave A. The probable target should be between 24 and 22. If price crosses up 31 before this correction, this analysis should be reviewed. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
AP.UN - probability of more than 10% short-term gainsAllied Properties, a prime office Canadian REIT is tracing the early stages of minor wave C up. The most probable target should be around 49. If prices cross down 37.70, this analysis should be reviewed. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
YUEXIU REIT - opportunities for more than 10% short-term gainsYUEXIU REIT seems to be tracing wave C of a correction up that should complete intermediate wave (4). The target is in the range between 4.00 and 4.30. If price crosses below 3.44, this analysis should be revised. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
Long MFA Financial here as Weekly MACD is about to crossThis one is too easy...not a ton of downside risk as chart loves support here. I would say a 10%-15% stop loss is fine as you wait for this to break out.
Short volume will also be covering a long with some better economic forcasts in the days to come. REITS will be GREAT again.
I'm actually surprised the sideways nature on this...should curl up here to at least test our first resistance zone of about $2.50 - if it breaks that then we will see you over $3.60 in the near term.
Strategic Portfolio Optimization ahead of a Changing Economy Today marked statistically a change in a few parts of the economy here in the U.S. First and foremost, I will be being active in actually acting forward looking by protecting certain aspects of my portfolio with certain sector risk exposure. Protecting my capital in terms of both capital loss of YTM and also exposure to inflation specific-asset classes. I will be adding long REIT's such as $EQIX for long term holding of varying a few months if not over a year, with additional non-marginalized positions to come.
The transition from deflationary (heavy depressionary) to stagflation, which today showed the first technical data prints of such. Regaurdless, we still technically aren't in a recession according to the trule book, so the last thting I'm trying to to suggest right now us to follow the rules.
