TSLA - turned the corner?TSLA had been on a wild ride down since peaking on 4th Nov 2021, with many strong bear rallies in between. It finally hit the bottom on 6th Jan this year and began a rather strong rally until early Feb where it started to churn violently for the next 2.5 months, shaking out any weak bulls.
A sustainable rally emerged again from 27 Apr and more signs have been emerging that the longer term trend have changed to bullish (short term pullbacks not withstanding):
1. a close above the 200 day moving average on 31 May and continued to propel higher for more than a week now
2. a break above a longer-term neckline in the region of 200-215 this week and
3. RSI line on it's MONTHLY chart has crossed above the 14 SMA line (signifying the likely emergence of a longer-term bullish trend).
However, TSLA has been traditionally a volatile stock, hence it is safer to wait some dips to go long. Any retracements in the near term should preferably not breach the neckline support (200 - 215), although it is not up to us to decide how far it would pull-back .
Wait to see the stock finding possible support (after a retracement) to go long (with stop loss below the most recent pivot low).
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. I may have an opinion but I do not hope. Cut loss (sooner rather than later) and move on if wrong. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
Relative
NCR road to around 30The decline seen in the stock in April and early May was halted by the 30 level of the 14-day RSI (purple line) and better-than-expected news. Currently, it is on an upward trajectory, crossing the 50-day EMA (gray line) and retesting this level. This provides support for attempting to surpass the 200-day EMA (turquoise line) at around 25.5. The question is whether we can sustainably stay above it.
In the first instance, the target price is $26, and if it successfully retests the 200-day moving average, it could strengthen up to $30 by the end of June.
In the analysis, the yellow line represents the 20-day BB (Bollinger Bands).
Relative Strength Index/RSI Made SimpleThe RSI (Relative Strength Index) is like a tool that helps people who buy and sell stocks and other things to figure out how strong the price of something is. It works by looking at the prices of that thing over a certain period of time, like 14 days, and then putting those prices on a scale from 0 to 100.
🔸When the RSI is high, like over 70, it means the price has gone up a lot and might be too high. When the RSI is low, like under 30, it means the price has gone down a lot and might be too low.
But just looking at the RSI by itself is not enough.
While many traders do use the RSI to buy at the 30 level and sell above the 70 level, this is not the only way to use the indicator. (As shown below)
🔸The RSI should be used in conjunction with other technical indicators and fundamental analysis to make informed trading decisions. In fact, relying solely on these levels can lead to missed opportunities and suboptimal trading decisions.
🔸It's also worth noting that the RSI can be used to identify bullish and bearish trends. When the RSI is above 50, it is considered bullish, indicating that the market is trending upwards. When the RSI is below 50, it is considered bearish, indicating that the market is trending downwards.
🔸While the 70 and 30 levels are popular levels to buy and sell, traders can also use other points based on how price reacts at those levels. For example, if the RSI reaches 80, it may indicate an especially strong upward trend, while a drop to 20 may indicate an especially strong downward trend. Traders should use their own judgment and analysis to determine which levels are most appropriate for their trading strategy. You can also find that as the name suggest (Relative Strength) traders should look for levels in price action where there is a strong reaction and then check to see at what level on the RSI this occurred because it might happen again once we got to that RSI value. (As seen below )
So as you can see in the image above you do not need to wait for price to go to levels 80 or 20 in order to look for reactions you can look at how price has reacted at previous levels before and monitor those levels in the future.
Finally lets talk about divergence.
🔸RSI divergence is a trading strategy that involves looking for differences between the movement of the price of an asset and the movement of the RSI indicator.
When there is RSI divergence, it means that the price of an asset is moving in a different direction than the RSI indicator, which can signal a potential change in trend.
There are two types of RSI divergence: bullish and bearish. Bullish divergence occurs when the price of an asset is making lower lows, but the RSI indicator is making higher lows. This can suggest that the price of the asset is oversold and may be due for a rebound.
Conversely, bearish divergence occurs when the price of an asset is making higher highs, but the RSI indicator is making lower highs. This can suggest that the price of the asset is overbought and may be due for a correction.
Traders can use RSI divergence to help them make trading decisions. For example, if they see bullish divergence, they may consider buying the asset, while if they see bearish divergence, they may consider selling the asset. However, traders should always use RSI divergence in conjunction with other technical indicators and fundamental analysis to make informed trading decisions.
Example is shown below:
🔸Settings of the RSI:
Traders can customize the settings of the RSI to suit their trading style and preferences. They can adjust the number of periods used in the calculation, which can range from as low as 2 to as high as 200 or more, depending on the timeframe being analyzed.
In addition to the default settings, traders can also adjust the overbought and oversold levels of the RSI. By default, the RSI is considered overbought when it is above 70 and oversold when it is below 30. Traders can adjust these levels to suit their trading style and the specific asset being analyzed.
Traders can also add other indicators on top of the RSI to help them analyze the market. For example, they may add a moving average to the RSI to help them identify trend direction and potential areas of support and resistance.
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Also keep in mind that the RSI can be used as a reversal tool and also a trend trading tool. For example, when the RSI reaches extreme levels of overbought or oversold, it can signal a potential reversal in the price trend. When the RSI reaches these levels, traders can look for other confirming indicators or price action to help them decide whether to enter a trade in the opposite direction.
On the other hand, as a trend trading tool, traders can use the RSI to identify the strength of a trend and to help them decide when to enter or exit a trade. When the RSI is above 50, it can indicate a bullish trend, and when it is below 50, it can indicate a bearish trend. Traders can use the RSI to help them identify potential areas of support and resistance within the trend and to enter trades in the direction of the trend.
It's important to note that traders should not rely solely on the RSI to make trading decisions. The RSI should be used in conjunction with other technical indicators, such as moving averages, and fundamental analysis to get a complete picture of the market. By using the RSI as both a reversal tool and a trend trading tool, traders can better identify potential trading opportunities and make more informed trading decisions.
Watchlists of SPX Sector ComponentsUse RSC indicator to spot strong stocks in related sector.
Useful watchlists of SPX sector components:
AMEX:XRT : www.tradingview.com
AMEX:XLY : www.tradingview.com
AMEX:XLV : www.tradingview.com
AMEX:XLU : www.tradingview.com
AMEX:XLRE : www.tradingview.com
AMEX:XLP : www.tradingview.com
AMEX:XLK : www.tradingview.com
AMEX:XLI : www.tradingview.com
AMEX:XLF : www.tradingview.com
AMEX:XLE : www.tradingview.com
AMEX:XLC : www.tradingview.com
AMEX:XLB : www.tradingview.com
LKQ - Hidden Divergence - BullishOn the chart of LKQ, we can see a forming ascending triangle and we can see hidden bullish divergence on daily timeframe.
An ascending triangle is a bullish formation. The pattern gets validated when the price breaks out of the upside of the pattern.
By using the Relative Strength Index we can hidden bullish divergence.
A long position can be taken when the resistance of the triangle turns into a support.
See all further details on the chart.
Goodluck!
Falling Wedge- Bullish - UpdateENPH has been trading sideways for quite some time now while simultaneously getting beaten down by the broader markets, and testing a very strong resistance level circa $223-214.00. However, ENPH has seemingly found a bottom with a significant amount of bullish flow coming in while heading into earnings on 4/23'. From a fundamental standpoint, relative to others in the sector such as FSLR, ENPH is undervalued compared to other big names in the sector. Nevertheless, ENPH is setting up quite nicely here, hovering in and out of oversold territory while holding a massive falling wedge, accompanied by hidden bullish divergence on the RSI on the weekly timeframe (See Attached Chart Below). Furthermore, ENPH is sitting right on its 50-day SMA while bulls & bears are pulling. Regardless, Bullish and will be looking for a breakout from this wedge (Broader Market Conditions Permitting)- Just some support and resistance levels to watch along with some RSI-based supply and demand zones to keep an eye on in the meantime --Previous Charts Attached Below As Well As Price Targets--
PT1- $222.58
PT2- $228.34
PT3- $234.62
PT4- $240.37 +
Weekly Timeframe
Fundamentals
Previously Charted
CROUSD - Oversold - Small PumpOn the 1h timeframe chart of Cronos (CROSUSD), we can see that the price is oversold.
The indicators used are the Bollinger Bands, Relative Strength Index and Stochastics. All three indicators are identifying the same oversold condition.
The price is approaching a support zone. Previously this support zone was strong resistance. So it's likely that the price is going to be supported. In combination with the oversold condition, it's a double confirmation for the price to increase.
All further details are shown on the chart.
Goodluck!
ADAUSD - Upward move coming - 2023!It looks like Cardano it's going to start 2023 well.
On the 4-hour timeframe chart(left), Cardano's price is showing Regular Bullish Divergence. The Divergence is indicated by the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastics.
On the daily timeframe chart(right), Cardano's price is showing an Oversold condition. The Oversold conditions are indicated by the Bollinger Bands, Relative Strength Index, and Stochastics.
Both charts complement each other. The new innovative plans for 2023 are in line with these ideas as well.
Enter your long position only if/when the candle closes above the key level and confirms it as a support.
All further details are shown on the charts.
Good luck!
2 y 5 y 10 y bonds butterfly idea and historical returns hello
does anyone find me please an historical returns of a butterfly spread as follow -
long 1 2 years bond
short 2 5 years bond
long 1 10 years bond.
Does that make sense ?
It is a combination of 3 legs , using 3 instruments.
I am looking for some history and historical returns .
Thnak you
DOGE - Oversold - Small bounce possibleOn the DOGEUSD chart (1h timeframe), we can see the price is currently oversold. The price is reaching a support area. Once the price has entered the support area it's likely for the price to bounce back up.
All three indicators used are Bollinger Bands, RSI, and Stochastic. All three indicators confirm the oversold condition.
All further details are shown on the chart.
Good luck!
Asian Paints Long TermTechnical Analysis :
-- Strict Stop Loss = 3077
-- Target - 1 = 3387
-- Target - 2 = 3625
-- Target - 3 = 4232
-- Strong support at 2786.
-- Touching 55 EMA
Fundamental Analysis :
-- Current price is more than the intrinsic value
-- Maintaining a healthy dividend payout
-- CAGR: 10 years - 22%
-- Cash Flow is negative
-- ROCE : 27 %
As the PE ratio is a little high compared to the Median PE i.e 68.8. So keep on investing in a small amount
Divi's Laboratories Long Term Technical Analysis :
-- Strict Stop Loss = 3150
-- Risk : Reward = 1 : 3
-- Target - 1 = 4059
-- Target - 2 = 4597
-- Target - 3 = 4988
-- Strong support at 3039.
-- Re enter the trade at 3185
-- Touching 200 EMA
Fundamental Analysis :
-- Divi's Lab has a healthy ROE.
-- Over the last 5 years, revenue has grown at a yearly rate of 17%
-- ROCE: Maintaining healthy ROCE of 31.64% (1 year), 28.31(3 years), and 26.9% over the past 5 years.
-- Healthy dividend payout
-- Debt-to-Equity: Divi''s Lab has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.00
-- CAGR: 10 years - 19%
-- Cash Flow: Positive cash flow over the last 5 years
-- P/E ratio: 10 years PE is close to the average PE. So Stock is not overvalued
HUL long term investmentTechnical Analysis :
-- Strong support at 2047
-- Strict Stop Loss = 2440
-- Risk : Reward = 1 : 3
-- Target = 3450
-- Golden crossover in Daily
-- Just crossed the trendline
-- For long-term investment please ignore the targets.
Fundamental Analysis :
-- The company has existed for more than 10 years
-- The company is virtually Debt-free
-- CAGR : 5 year - 17% & 10 year - 18%
-- Revenue, Profit Growth : Over the last 5 years, revenue has grown at a yearly rate of 9–10 %
-- ROCE: Maintaining healthy ROCE of 38.22% (1 year), 90.51(3 years), and 95.95% over the past 5 years.
-- Cash Flow: Over the last 5 years, free cash flow growth has been 8.27%. Which is on the positive side.
-- P/E ratio: Stock is not overvalued as its near to its historical average
-- Maintaining a healthy Dividend
RSI ANALYSIS OF INDIAMART INTERMESH!!!i have drawn some lines on rsi panel, which says- RSI's support and resistance. it does not mean that only price can have support and resistance. RSI is also a relative nature with price, so it can also have such trend line parts.
there is a less probabilty of falling more down.
my analysis-
rsi could take a rest on '45-47', then move upwards, price will take rest 'on the blue support line',
if the price falls down, or say it does not gives a breakout in rsi resistance line, then the price could reach its lowest support line(i.e, @3900), and rsi will go below 30, which will then show a rsi divergence from 7th march till the date when rsi went below 30. and this divergence cannot make the price more to fall(since the price would have reached its minimum support line). so the rules are not getting met.
therefore, the stock will rest at 4277, and then continue to move up, rsi will give a breakout.
one more point to add on, red trend line, shows that from he lowest point, the stock has given its breakout, so as the markets move upwards, stock will continue to go higher.
ALTO is rising with earnings expected ASCENDING CHANNELNASDAQ:ALTO
ALTO has earnings post-market 8/8/22. per Yahoo! Finance
last earnings were significantly 10% of share price
Chart (60 minutes) shows a two-week ascending channel as well
as increasing relative volume now sitting at a volume
profile resistance shelf and consistently above
the cloud indicator.
Will ALTO continue on the uptrend or bounce off resistance?
AMAZON on a boost. Won't reach the split price though.I have tested this 6 different ways and included my new "Mass EFX moving averages" indicator.
All I'm seeing is that $amazon is on a rise rightnow since June 17th @ 11:30 pm Central ime.
It will continue to rise to $109.00 and maybe a spike to $112 00
Current price 8s $106.xx
Stoploss = 104.03
Entry 106.16
According to my rsi formula:
Exit = $110.37 (after move momentum expires)
Safe exit is $109.99
Business banks trade in whole numbers, let's move to the closest whole dollar (110.00)
This is a 3.5% move
Eurozone ($EZU) looks sickly! (3/5)Conviction: 3/5
Seems to be turning down away from LT (2002) channel resistance. RSI-W also signaling further downside.
Looks like there might be an intermediate-term support around -10% away.
All in all.. may be a better risk:reward trade once it breaks down from the white support line. Either way, the trend looks negative.
If you are interested in Europe, perhaps UK will be a better trade.
$ACWX relative to $SPY potential (3/5)Conviction: 3/5
Overall still in LT (2009) down channel, so trade is quite risky... you are trading against the trend...
HOWEVER:
bounced off MT (2018) trend support
RSI looks pretty good
SPY ourperformance against world is pretty outrageous in the last 2 years, so some mean-reversion is likely
Trade duration... 3-5 months.
Much better trade is to wait for breakout confirmation, and wait for entry from likely retest.
VALUE put in double bottom! (4/5)Conviction: 4/5
Value looks ripe for long-term out-performance against Growth stocks (Russell 1000 Value vs Russell 1000 Growth)
Just put in double bottom, similar to what happened in 2000 peak.
HOWEVER, this is bad for general markets, as most of the out-performance that happened last time in 2000 was due to Value GOING DOWN LESS than Growth...
RISKS, the level of double bottom does not seem to correspond to any established support level... so could always go down, perhaps wait until breakout of downtrend to go all in?????
Also, data set is relatively short for Value/Growth relationships, it is known that these relative performances can play out over decades (as you see from Growth out-performance since 2006 ish)... so we only have MAYBE 1 full cycle...