Strong Long 🍏 Bulls will embarrass Bears as Hentai MovieStrong Long 🍏 Bulls will embarrass Bears as Hentai Movie
"Open a long position, and you'll drive a new TESLA model within a week."
We've had a 100% success rate with the variation of the following indicators for more than two months, see our previous Ideas.
🔑 KEY POINTS:
Chart Pattern: Price hit Support Area of Historic Bottoms
Momentum: RSI (Relative Strength Index) hit Support, Advanced Bullish Divergence
Machine Learning (ML): Price Action hit Linear Regression Channel Support
Funding Rates: Negative, supports Bulls
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Relative
Smart Money Surged in at $1700 - $1900. As can be seen in the relative volume chart attached, a surge of volume came in around the 21st of June when ETH dipped down below $2,000 for a couple of days.
That strong support seems to have helped keep an extended bearish run at bay, and is perhaps sparking a bullish run past the established resistance between $2300 - $2400.
Stocks Spread OutNQ just completed a head and shoulders. That can mean anything, but it sure makes things interesting.
RTY has clearly taken the lead in relative strength since the markets bottomed in march.
More money is going to a larger group of stocks in RTY, and it looks like the tech bubble is paying for it.
Tech bubble:
Stocks to Watch Relative Strength Edition The Market is showing some questionable activity, this week I expect the market to by choppy. This is the Relative Strength Edition of Stocks to Watch. This may give good risk/reward entries on some of the best names. Some of these charts still need to confirm their price action. This video is my watchlist. Most of these names are at or near all time highs or multi year highs. There are 22 total stocks on this list. I add an additional 2 stocks that are on my potential short squeeze watch list. Many of these have IPO'd in the last few years and still have a growth story ahead of them. Know your time frame and risk tolerance. Know your earnings dates! I go through these quickly so grab a pencil and paper and jot down the names that look interesting to you and then make the trade your own. Good Luck!
DOW vs SPY... Slightly different POINT of INFLECTION - MUST SEEHi all - I wanted to point out that the DOW is slightly lagging in relative position to the SPY in relation to the inflection points from the August, Sept, Oct pattern that started the Q4 bull run in both.
We can see that:
1. SPY has ALREADY REACHED the first inflection point in relation to the the August, Sept, Oct pattern that started the Q4 bull run in both.
2. DOW is APPROACHING the August, Sept, Oct pattern that started the Q4 bull run in both.
What does this mean:
Some traders closely follow all three majors (SPY NASDAQ DOW)... but some choose one to follow.
While SPY attempts to remount $285, DOW is APPROACHING $25k. This difference in alignment may add to the uncertainty at this inflection point going into the week of April 20th!
Keep eyes on the level on both charts so you can avoid getting chopped out (regardless of your bias long or short).
Thank you to the trading community for taking the time to view my perspective on the charts!
Be well - xeenos trading
Luxury Goods: LMVH vs CFR vs SwatchSwiss Watch exports in Sep 2019 increased 10.2% YoY, improving from 1,7% in the previous month - benefitting from a low base and strong performance in Asian markets ex HK. LMVH reported that disruption in HK is not necessarily being offset in neighboring Asian markets an deman was stable from H1'19. LMVH further stated a 40% decline in HK sales in August and September. Not ideal for CF as it has the largest exposure to HK (12% of sales). Chow Tai Food (HK jewellery retailer) reported a 42% decline in like-for-like revenue over the quarter.
UBS noted that they believe we are near the end of the Lux goods cycle and pointed to Richemont and Swatch as being exposed to the most risk. UBS have placed outperform ratings on LMVH, Kering, Moncler, and Hermes. They site near-term escalation of protests in Hong Kong as well as recent CNY depreciation, as posing the biggest risk to the hard luxury names, Swatch and Richemont.
This chart is to track the UBS investment thesis to stay overweight LMVH and underweight CFR
Morning Ideas November 13, 2019Stuck in the middle of this upper balance.
It's a good thing and a bad thing for the longs.
It's good because we aren't rejecting this upper balance, we are still very much in the middle of the balance.
The bad news here is that we can still pull back to the lower end of the balance so if you're long, you may have to sit through some heat.
VPOC from yesterday is above us and this market is likely to be pretty choppy on the open because we are in an area of acceptance.
Refrain from chasing the market in such environments.
Profitable RSI optimizes 3 parameters!Well, it's just a small public announcement.
I went to this for a long time and now it has become possible. Profitable RSI now handles 3 parameters of the standard RSI indicator to find the best tuple of settings. So, additionally to period setting, the optimizer takes under consideration different Overbought (from 60 to 70 ) and Oversold levels (from 30 to 40 ) for each RSI period.
Four main conclusions from my research (if you gonna trade with RSI):
The OB/OS levels are not necessary to be the standard 70/30 ones. With all my respect to J. Welles Wilder, but those bounds cannot be considered optimal.
The OB/OS levels can be asymmetric. So OB can be 65 while OS is 39. Not 70/30, not 60/40 and not 75/25. Asymmetric ones.
There is no efficient trading with period setting higher than 50.
We can make a feast even from the old indicator
And the last thing I wanted to add - let's not live in the old paradigms. The world is changing, trading is changing and we must change too. Don't be afraid to experiment with something new for you.
The tool I talked about, the Profitable RSI, is here
Good luck, Good health, God bless you
BTC 1h still has momentumDear day traders,
RMI still above 50, as I have commented on previous idea, the price will only go down when the RMI shows a massive negative slope.
Money Flow still confirms solid buying power. Still, the 15min chart already signaled some weakness. I would still hold on to BTC position and have a stop loss at 8090, but I don't advise against going short now.
I am closely watching 8400 resistance and 8100 support level. If we see a bull break the next test levels would be the previous 8600 and then 8900. Otherwise 7800 should be our next resistance, but if we form a higher low (higher than 7800) this would look very bullish, at least on an hourly perspective.
I will update as soon as I wake up tomorrow.
Just my 2 cents. Hope you guys find it helpful.
TXN bull flag Ride the Trend!Sector performing strong
-Long term trend is bullish with strength slightly weakening but still in uptrend...consolidation
-intermediate time frame showing a nice flag forming after that sharp quick advance finding support in the 80.18 area
-relative strength is slowing showing a nice pullback
-the real tell is the obv which is showing the positive volume pressure going into the move
-measured move of around 2.50 brings target to 82.7-82.75 but realistically to 82.20 area following the path of least resistance
-risk reward ratio= 10.95
Low price stock candidate - Chosen by our whole brain processOn a daily chart: It is above 5 MA and 20 MA, it is above the William´s % R, above the CCI , the daily candlestick is positive, it has an increasing volume , it is a growth industry (semiconductors), it is above the cloud, above the 50 and 20 MA, it is above the 8 EMA , the RSI that I set to 2 is above the 80 level, the MACD crossed and the PVT is positive.
News:
us.rd.yahoo.com
The bollinger bands have narrowed and beginning to widen.
On a weekly: It is above the cloud.
These type of ideas are mentioned in our book Pennies to Thousands, a whole brain process of picking stocks with left brain indicators and right brain intuition. This book can be picked up for the same cost as a commission on a stock and can be purchased on Amazon or other bookstores. You can also watch our Youtube videos which have different videos on right and left brain activities to choose stock candidates. SUBSCRIBE TO OUR CHANNEL: Pennies to Thousands.
Confidence Ratio Going DownA great indicator to determine the confidence (ie. risk appetite) of investors/speculators is the XLY/XLP ratio. XLY is the ETF for consumer discretionary stocks whereas XLP is the ETF for constumer staples stocks. In times of confidence, XLY should perform better than XLP because there is belief that the economy is doing well and that people will spend cash on things that are not absolutely necessary.
The ratio has been tracking US equities indexes fairly well over the last years, but now we see major divergence. XLY/XLP is moving down and from a technical analysis standpoint it does not look like it is about to go rise back anytime soon.
Yet, at the same time, the S&P 500 has been hitting all-time highs. This performance seems like it is not supported by risk appetite - which it should!
So what should you do from here? Short this ratio? Short the S&P? That is all up to you. This is just another factor from a long list that supports the thesis that equities are overextended.
Good luck trading.
MCD Long; 150EMA Support - Risk:Reward Of 62:1This trade setup is pretty simple and doesn't require any rocket science. McDonald's, or MCD, is a component of the DOW30. MCD has been in a trading range on the weekly chart for quite some time now. We are currently at the bottom of this range, providing an excellent opportunity to get long. I'm using covered calls in this name to get long the stock at as cheap a price as possible. The RSI show at label (A) is finding support in the oversold zone we have seen it bounce from before. In addition, we have moved off the 150EMA Weekly, which if you look at the green ellipse has previously held up since about 2007-2008 (not shown in this chart). There are two long possibilities here for me:
1) Buy MCD at 93.68 and Sell the Oct. 100 Call for $0.27 making your cost basis $93.41. With our stop on a close below $93.05 we are risking about $0.36 to make a maximum of $6.59. That's a risk reward of 18:1.
2) 1) Buy MCD at 93.68 and Sell the Oct. 97.5 Call for $0.57 making your cost basis $93.11. With our stop on a close below $93.05 we are risking about $0.07 to make a maximum of $4.39. That's a risk reward of 62:1.
(I traded #2)
The risk reward is assuming we could close out the position on the penny. This of course is not entirely true because we do not know how far below the market can close. It give you an idea however of just how well this trade is setup. You can tailor your stops to your liking. For example from this level, my stop is on a close below $93.05 or a touch of $92.35. This is because I never risk more than 2% on a single trade. I traded play number 2 because it brought my cost basis closer to the EMA reducing risk, while limiting profit. To compensate I doubled the size of my MCD position so the profit would match that of Trade Play #1, with my total risk being less than 2% still, and appropriate stops in play as mentioned. $97.50 is the closest and more likely target, with $102.00 being the top and more extended part of the range. So by using the $97.50 calls and doubling my size, my chances are better yet that I will achieve the same profits as Trading Play #1, simply because it only requires MCD to head towards $97.50 and not $102.00.
Good luck, and may the markets be ever in your favor!
US Oil Short From Bullish Flag; High Risk:Reward RatioUSO has broken it's uptrend a few weeks back, and since has been heading violently lower with no signs of stopping, at least not yet. Not in my eyes. I had a plethora of converging indications, so I've marked them in the chart A - F, and then explained my trade setup. Good luck.
A) RSI has broken above the 35 level, but this is likely because it bounced a bit from being oversold. It remains below 50 which is a bearish indication and still has resistance at the 40 level.
B) The cream of the crop. B marks the head of a head and shoulders pattern in USO. You can see when the neckline was broken here, while simultaneously breaking a series of important EMAs, USO began it's slide. We would expect some sort of throw back to this neckline. This will be important in our trade setup later.
C) Here is our bearish flag and Andrew's Pitchfork. You can see the slight countertrend movement off the lower bollinger band, and what now looks to be a hanging man. This entire move up is hitting resistance in the pitch fork, as well as the flag formation, and has formed entirely on declining volume. That's not a positive sign for continued upward momentum.
D) PSZ (Prior Support Zone) from way back when. I'm expecting a move down into this zone where it will coincide with support at the lower BB or lower median pitchfork line. We may get a bounce down here, or more consolidation.
E) Volume Decline Throughout Bear Flag
F) Declining & Still Negative MACD
The one thing I didn't like here was the RSI, and that the weekly chart shows that we may need a throwback before extended downward momentum. This is where that neckline comes into play. We may very well see a throwback to the 66 area before we are awarded with any serious downside momentum. However the weekly RSI is also in a downtrend, reinforcing our bearish outlook. I'm short a directional diagonal on this play, to take advantage of Theta decay, and let oil slowly drift lower in my favor until we reach that prior support and I debate what the next play will be. More downside, or a retracement? Maybe a renewed uptrend? Who knows?
NTAP showing relative strength above important levelNetApp holds well above broken resistance level at $38. This is very important level as it is in play since March. We had some clues before break up as buyers managed to build series of higher lows with recent bottom at $36. Below this, idea will loose its luster.
As broad market entered into corrective phase, i like how this specifique stock showing us relative strength and wedging above important level. Sector of Data Storage devices also keeps its buying momentum ($WDC, $STX, $VMW).
Use your trade and risk management rules to keep odds on your side and control risk the same time. I am tier 1 here, add tier 2 if market will find its footing, add tier 3 on break og wedge. If it will go through $39, it will open doors to $41.