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BTC Trading in Price Discovery Zones (Price analysis)Bitcoin in Price Discovery: Understanding and Trading in Uncharted Territory When Bitcoin or any asset reaches an all-time high (ATH), it enters a phase known as price discovery. In this phase, the market operates without historical price references, navigating uncharted territory to determine fair value. For traders and investors, this presents both an opportunity and a challenge. Employing techniques like Elliott Wave Theory and analyzing price and volume dynamics can help strategize trades during this unique phase. What is Price Discovery? Price discovery occurs when an asset ventures into price levels it has never reached before—most often at its ATH. Without prior data for resistance or support, the market relies on demand, supply, and speculation to set new price benchmarks. Understanding how price reacts in this phase requires both macro and micro analysis. Elliott Wave Theory in Price Discovery Elliott Wave Theory offers a framework for understanding market psychology and price movements. In the context of price discovery, the B Wave of an Elliott Wave formation plays a pivotal role: Identifying the B Wave and Pullback Zones The B Wave represents a pullback into a range after an impulsive move upward (Wave A). Mark the peak of the impulsive move (A) and the bottom of the pullback (B). Project this range forward in time to identify potential support zones. Support Zones in Price Discovery The previous high (Wave A peak) forms the top of the support zone. The B Wave low forms the bottom of the support zone. Once the price pulls back into this zone, it signals a potential retest of the support, offering opportunities for reentry into the trend. Drilling Down: Smaller Timeframes for Confirmation When Bitcoin retests these support zones, zoom into smaller timeframes to assess price reaction and volume behavior. Look for: Bullish Change in the State of Delivery: This includes higher highs and higher lows, increased buying volume, and bullish candlestick patterns such as engulfing candles or hammer formations. Volume Confirmation: Strong volume on upward moves and decreasing volume during pullbacks indicate sustained bullish momentum. At these support zones, the price is likely to resume its bullish trend if the market shows these signs of strength. Managing Risk in Price Discovery Zones Despite bullish setups, price discovery is volatile, and false breakouts can occur. To safeguard trades: Watch for Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) Look for large, unfilled price gaps from prior resistance areas. These gaps might signal areas where the price could retrace deeper before confirming support. Adjust Entries and Stop Losses If price breaks below the initial support zone (top of Wave A), it may retest the bottom of the B Wave for further consolidation. Set stop losses below the bottom of the B Wave to protect against unexpected reversals. Evaluate Volume-Driven Moves Weak volume during a retest could indicate insufficient demand to support the price, suggesting a deeper pullback or reversal is more likely. -------------------------- Price discovery is one of the most exciting and rewarding phases for traders who know how to approach it. By using Elliott Wave Theory, you can pinpoint key support zones, especially around the B Wave pullbacks, and then confirm your setups by analyzing price action and volume. The key here is patience and precision. Let the price come to those critical zones you’ve marked, watch how it reacts, and make your move confidently. Stay flexible, though—price discovery is unpredictable, and managing your risk is crucial if you want to make the most out of this high-potential phase in Bitcoin’s journey.
Long
by CoffeeshopCrypto
3
BLS INTL SERVICES - Ready for a short term Up MoveThe stock had undergone a big correction even before the recent small cap index correction. The stock fell almost 28% from 475 to 340. It was pushed below the 200 DMA, from where it has been recovering. Even during the recent correction in the small cap index, the stock was in fact showing lot of strength and the relative strength compared to the small cap index is positive now. It is also making higher highs in the daily frame while it is still continuing to make the higher highs and higher lows in the weekly time frame as well. Now, it has also crossed above the short-term moving averages and the previous daily pivot. So, the stock looks likely to test 475 levels. So, I am looking at 15% returns in the short term from the stock. Of course, one has to always keep in mind the overall market weakness.
NSE:BLSLong
by karthikmarar
2
BOMBAY DYEING - Ready to Move to the Next OrbitThe stock after facing price rejection in the range of 224 to 241 was pushed down to the 50 DMA. It moved almost sideways in the last three months. Recently we saw some interest coming back into the stock with the relative strength and the money flow turning positive and the volume was also increasing. The stock remained very strong during the recent weakness we saw in the overall market. Now finally it has crossed above the price rejection zone with good volume support. The delivery volumes saw substantial increase recently. All other parameters like the buying pressure, volume adjusted momentums, absolute momentum everything seem to be favouring further up move. Looks like the stock is ready to move to the top into the next orbit.
NSE:BOMDYEINGLong
by karthikmarar
EUR/JPY: Tight range when other EUR-pairs are weak. HmmmDo you trade A) Before the breakout for a better price OR B) After the breakout for confirmation ? We usually prefer B) But it helps to think through some scenarios that could happen beforehand Looking at EUR/JPY - see how it is trading in a tight range? Well other EUR pairs like EUR/USD have been falling. That shows relative strength . Or put another way - the yen is relatively weak. The price could just break straight to the topside - or it could first try to break lower in a fakeout - before breaking to the topisde. If the latter does happen - it will be one of those occations we could trade before the =breakout ;) What do you think happens? Maybe the trend turns lower - and neither scenario above is right - could easily be.
Short
by jasperlawler
TDPOWER SYSTEMS - Likely to resume the Up Trend?The stock was in an uptrend and met with some price rejection in the range of 436 to 451, then it was pushed down to below 50 DMA. Then we saw some strength coming back below the 50 DMA and then today we saw an “Effort to move up” bar. Now the price is at the supply line and once the supply line is broken then we can see the stock testing the previous rejection zone and with some momentum it could take out the Price Rejection Zone and move up. Now the buying pressure and the money flow are positive while the relative strength is on the verge of turning positive. There is some good volume support as well. We also could see some committed buying coming in terms of delivery volumes. So, looks like the momentum is building up and this should see a stock being pushed up to test the rejection zone and further up. In other words the stock look likely to resume the Up Trend.
NSE:TDPOWERSYSLong
by karthikmarar
Swing Trade Set UPA simple, Swing Trade Set UP. Often it is simple trade setup that make lots of money. This is one such set up. Here trend is captured with alignment of MA's . 3 MAs are plotted EMA-10, EAM-21 and SMA 50. To pick the trend, first condition is EMA-10 > EMA-21 > SMA 50. Second condition is price above all these MAs. In the chart it is marked wherever this occurred. Now to make entry you have to wait till the stock out performs the Index. It can be captured through plotting a indicator named RS or Relative strength. use Bench mark index as #NIFTY50 or #CNX500. You can see that there are areas where MAs aligned but RS was negative and trend failed. But when all these aligned price moved up nicely. You can exit the trade on deceive break of EMA 21 or SMA 50. Try this on many charts and lean the nuance before making actual trade.
NSE:DEEPAKFERTEducation
by Vasu_devan
RADICO - In to the next orbit ?The stock has been moving almost sideways with a upward bias for the last eight months. However, recently you can see that in the weekly it has been making a higher, high and higher lows. Now the stock has successfully moved out of this sideways range and also it has crossed above the supply line in the top. The move was with very high volumes. You can see a positive money flow in the weekly. On the daily you can see that the relative strength, absolute strength and the money flow has been positive. So, it looks like that stock is now ready to go into the next orbit. However, the ultra-high volume calls for some caution. So, one has to wait till the stock crosses above 1973 which is a high of the “BC” like bar of the last day. Relative strength turning positive on the weekly will add to the conviction.
NSE:RADICOLong
by karthikmarar
1
UPL - Finally out of the woods?The stock had been in a downtrend for more than 15 months, losing almost 45% in value. In the last three months it was seeing some recovery and finally now it seems to be out of the woods. We can see the stock is making a higher high and higher low on the weekly and we can see a change of character in the weekly as well. Now finally the stock is decisively going above the 200 DMA and also the short-term moving averages. The relative strength and the money flow is also positive. Even the buying pressure and the absolute strength are also positive. It is showing a positive momentum as well. We can now confirm that the stock is finally ready to move up further and eventually the stock should be testing 800 levels.
NSE:UPLLong
by karthikmarar
1
SYNGENE - Gearing up for higher MoveThe stock after nearly 10 months of consolidation had come out of the consolidation zone and now it is attempting to take out the previous supply zone as well. As we can see in the weekly chart, the relative strength and the money flow index are positive. In the daily chart as well, you can find the relative strength, the buying pressure are all positive. However, the money flow has not picked up. Given these conditions, once the money flow also picks up, the stock is likely to go up higher after breaking out of the price rejection zone or the supply zone. A positive close above 858 level, will add to the conviction.
NSE:SYNGENELong
by karthikmarar
JTO : Take CAUTION - RSI Topout LikelyBINANCE:JTOUSDT The RSI reacts different on every chart, which is often the case with technical indicators. This is also why we advise to find one or two, and learn how they respond on your favorite charts. If you swop around between technical indicators too frequently, you will miss key insights such as these. The charts says bullish for three main reasons : 👉 Bottom out pattern 👉 Higher lows 👉 Hot RSI Two playouts likely for JTO, but for NEAR / LONG term I will label it as BULLISH. Personally using leverage here is too risky for my taste but then again, I favor a modest and low-risk approach. __________________________
Long
by CryptoCheck-
KNR CONSTRUCTION - Moving to next orbit ?The stock, after a long consolidation of more than 2 years, made an impressive up move in late May, early June period. Then it met with supply around 344-410 levels. Then again it consolidated for almost 2 months taking support in the previous Major PRZ. Now it is trying to move out of this supply zone. All the other parameters like relative strength, money flow, buying pressure, the volumes, all look positive and likely to aid further up move. So, looks like the stock is going to go into the next higher orbit.
NSE:KNRCONLong
by karthikmarar
HBL POWER - High Probability for further up MoveThe stock faced price rejection around 612 on its upward journey and it was pushed down to the 200 DMA levels. And it moved almost sideways for 6 months. Multiple attempts to take out the rejection zone failed and recently it did succeed in moving out of the rejection zone. But it again went back to test the rejection zone. Now again it is moved up above the rejection zone and also the supply shadow of the BC bar of the 15th of July. As you can see the money flow is positive and the relative strength is also positive now. Th e volume has substantially increased and also the delivery volumes have increased in the recent past. All this does indicate that this current breakout of the rejection zone will sustain and it is highly probable that the stock will move up further.
NSE:HBLPOWERLong
by karthikmarar
Long Nasdaq Turtle soup from potential Low of weekSeasonally bullish July. HTF still bullish imo. Turtle soup long after deep sweep of Weds 3rd July low and after touching +bkr 4hr CE, and after reaching ABCD down projection. Ideally now i want hourly bodies to respect one of these levels, and us to get a lower timeframe break up in structure. If it keeps spooling down all day, then i'll take the loss. -NQ has been very much weak sister for many days now, feels to me like it's time for it to start showing relative strength now and and become the stronger sister to ES. -Seeing if we put in Low of week here in the opening hour, or later today. -Buying around the ABCD downleg projection, and the +OB wick CE W -Stop below +OBMT W and just below an old daily low (Tues 2nd July): Basically full exit/loss if we properly lose the +OBMT W below. -Ultimate target is the nice 20600 ABCD confluence (ABCD projections align here from both the 2023-2024 swing and the June'24 swing). Gut says we have NOT properly topped in indices. -Will take paritals at FVG H nearby overhead, and move stop for remaining position to breakeven. -Will take further partials and trail stop if we breach ATH Nasdaq. -Will take last of position off at the beautiful ABCD projection confluence 21600, if we get up there before early August. -If this runs up, i'm willing to hold til the end of the month (Indices are seasonally bullish in July) -For confirmation of shift back to bull in earnest, i want to see the FVG H above us 'flipped' bullish (resist, small retrace, then power on up through it) *Note to self: i should really wait to enter after getting low timeframe confirmation of a bottom, but i'll be totally honest: i want the satisfaction of potentially catching the low of week; I accept the risk of price just spooling on down and stopping me out today. **Just an idea for paper trading, not financial advice
CME_MINI:NQU2024Long
by twingall
Monthly Chart v. Weekly Chart May Indicate TroubleSince every dollar of price action is raising concern in either direction, let’s take an in-depth look at what’s happening with the price of Bitcoin. On the weekly chart (left), we can see the RSI is just starting to pivot and we can see the Stochastic RSI will have a cross in the coming weeks, usually indicating an uptrend. Price action has been within the same range for about three months, building healthy market structure. Then we get to the monthly chart. The monthly chart (right) is showing slowed momentum. We can see in the Stochastic RSI that the orange line is on top of the blue line – usually a bearish indication. This has me a bit concerned and considering how we’ve had ranged price action and are dropping from an RSI of around 80, it may be a warning sign of what's to come. Take a look at the green arrows on the monthly chart. Every time the purple line crosses above the yellow line, we see a price rally. Now look at the red arrows. When we see the purple line cross below the yellow line, price falls. The first red arrow you see, that was about a 70% drop. The second red arrow you see was about a 52% drop from the next pivot in momentum and a total of a 73% drop once RSI bottomed. This is when you want to have your strategy in place for if the weekly chart champions the monthly chart or if we do in fact have that RSI monthly purple line cross below the yellow and we go lower. Be ready for whatever the case may be! I'm thinking it's probable we may see a 50% drop before seeing all-time highs and the rally we've all been waiting for.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MicheLee
1