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Relativestrength

Weekly Market recap 7Elections week rollercoaster After the last week's wild price action related to the US Elections, DXY erased my expectations about any sort of USD recovery. DXY went from the top of the 3-months range to the bottom (currently testing the grey area). The last line of defence before the downtrend in USD resumes is around 91.75 low (Black horizontal line at the bottom of the range). I will be aggressively bearish on USD when that low is broken down. Two scenarios 1)Risk assets (see NZDUSD and S&P500) are currently testing or slightly pierced their resistances. So we need a decisive impulse in either direction to have a clearer perspective on the sentiment this week. My bias is on the DXY breakdown and the start of risk-seeking sentiment. 2)If risk sentiment begins, NZDUSD seems to have relative strength, so I'd be considering buying it over other risk currencies. On the other hand, looking at the USDJPY, we can see a long-term descending triangle that had just broken down on November 5. I expect USD to be relatively weak currency among safe-havens. Shorting USD looks like a good idea to me.
TVC:DXY
by Cherry94
Materials at multi-level supportMaterials sector has been showing relative strength. It is actually 3th in YTD performance, after 1. Technology, 2. Discretionary (Mega-cap lead sectors) Today it is resting on the 100ema, which has been supportive since march 23rd crash. This level is also coinciding with early 2020's high, as well as 4 other tests of the support; including a failed breakout, which worked the next time it tried. OBV has been supportive of the uptrend. (BULL) RSI showing slight divergence as the last bottom late September has a slightly higher RSI(10) than the current one. (BEAR) A strong close below $60 would deny the support, and make the chart a short-term bearish one.
AMEX:XLBLong
by dorfmanmaster
Weekly Market recap 5: Still at the crossroads of the sentimentsWhere we are, and "if-thens" Since the last week, the sentiment hasn't changed too dramatically, looking at the technical picture of DXY, I still see it as a range in a medium-term. Although, DXY crept down, closer to the "orange" line of defence (see the orange long-term trendline). Along with the stabilizing S&P500 index (The stock index has had the classic negative correlation with the DXY since the crash in March), DXY gives me reasons to have a short-term bearish bias, hence likely transition to risk appetite. If DXY closes below the orange trendline (around 92.2), it will be a strong sign of the beginning of a bearish market in USD. The last line of defence is around 91.7 (Sep 1 low). On the contrary, if DXY manages to close above the long-term trendline of the downtrend which started in March, I'd consider buying USD. I would need additional confirmations of course, as it is still a range market. Such confirmations may include reaching 94.00 level. The highlighters of sentiments A)If we bet on risk Say DXY would continue the downtrend, and we enter the risk appetite sentiment. What do we short USD against? Let's look at the most common risk duet of AUD and NZD (see the AUDNZD chart). If you zoom out a bit, the first thing you notice is the range, gradually descending channel. It tells us that AUD has been weaker in the long term and it's better to be long NZD in general. MA(100) is playing the role of the "mean" here. For short-term trading, it's nice to take into account how far the pair is from the mean. A good AUD-short would be after the candle reversal pattern (I marked the last one with the grey area) was formed near the upper border of the channel. Generally speaking, the further AUDNZD from the mean, the clearer it is what to buy to ride the risk appetite sentiment. B) If we bet on safe-havens Look at the long-term chart of USDJPY. USD has been pressured since 2015. Therefore I'd prefer going long JPY if risk aversion activates. However, I may still consider buying USD if USDJPY breaks the 5 years descending trendline. Summing up Eventually, follow the hints of DXY and then choose the most diverged currencies by their relative strength or weakness. For example, if risk aversion starts, I'd focus on shorting the weakest one (most likely USD) against relatively strongest one (let's say NZD). Adjust it to the short-term sentiments of European currencies and CAD, and you have a road map to find numerous additional setups.
by Cherry94
INSG avwap 'squeeze' should resolve to upside-INSG currently trades between VWAPs from significant YTD highs and lows, the tightening range of these VWAP lines creates a 'squeeze' like a tightening bollinger band or similarly a TTM squeeze, which signals a current decrease in price range and an increase in volatility is to come Why I expect this increase in volatility to occur to the upside: -50% retracement: INSG has consistently found support at the 50% retracement from the move higher off the March low -Support in INSG/SPY: INSG finding support in relative performance to SPY was a prior predictor of ensuing outperformance vs. SPY, and having recently reacted higher from support, I expect outperformance to resume Conclusion: tightening price range shown by anchored VWAP squeeze and a reversal higher in SPY relative performance point to an imminent upside breakout
NASDAQ:INSGLong
by ETrades1
2
AQN outperforming/avwap support-For the last 2 months AQN has traded above the VWAPs from the significant highs and lows of the year -During the same 2 month period, AQN has outperformed XLU and is now challenging its all time high in outperformance vs. XLU -AQN has recently been outperforming SPY after breaking out of a downtrend in SPY underperformance that has acted as resistance since March $13.5 looks like a good line in the sand, I have to expect higher prices as long as AQN stays above it
NYSE:AQNLong
by ETrades1
Weekly Market recap 1Ok, boring first, as I suspected it would be quite a calm week for USD as it ought to digest its previous downtrend move. The USD has been staying in the range without any hints of what direction the breakout would occur in. So let's wait and see what happens the upcoming week. If there are some decisive moves towards the range boundaries, we can devise a plan accordingly. I would be more prone to consider shorting USD in general, towards the previous trend. Gold has finally made a decent correction after the surge to the new all-time highs. Notice, that the level 1900, which is the high of September 2011, now became the mirror support. That's a good sign of the healthy bullish trend. This week it'd be nice to look for some bullish reversal setups based on the rebound from 1900 level and trend continuation setups afterwards. I'm not much into fundamentals, although I find a solid reason to stay long on Gold in the mid-long term as the interest rates will most likely remain very low for a while, and printing money continues in the US and Europe. Now, let's look at something more dynamic. My main focus in the upcoming week would be on the strength of the European currencies (EUR, CHF and GBP). Their indexes are all in a strong uptrend with some minor divergencies. The kicker here is to timely decipher which currency of the three has the most obvious relative strength. First of all, I chose not to display GBPCHF, as to me that's a symmetrical triangle formed in a multi-year range, - fairly neutral condition to have a bias in any direction. EURCHF has drawn my attention since the middle of May 2020, as it started to show aggressive signs of the long-term downtrend reversal. Although the pair seems to tighten to 1.0740, gradually, I see this pair going up in the mid-term . Therefore I'm long EUR here overall. EURGBP is consolidating near the upper band of the local range around 0.9050. That recent price action tells me EUR might be stronger at least in the short-term . And here is the highlight - AUDNZD . The pair has broken the long-term trendline started in October 2017, and confidently advances further. Australia, as the second Gold producing country in the world, should correlate with the price of Gold somehow. We can see a positive correlation of the AUDNZD with Gold since the middle of July. Last week Gold has corrected the strong upside move, but AUDNZD remained strong. That tells about the relative strength of AUD . I'll be looking for the trend continuations setups in AUDNZD in particular as NZD seems weak against European currencies too. That's it for now. I'd be curious to know your opinions about other fundamentals that drive the discussed currencies:)
by Cherry94
Growth Stocks Are Taking Back LeadershipStocks fell hard after the June 10 Federal Reserve meeting. The S&P 500 bounced after holding 3,000, and some interesting changes have occurred amid the volatility. Simply put, money is rotating back to “growth” and away from “value.” Recent weeks saw a big surge of interest in beaten-down “reopening” stocks like airlines, banks, industrials, energy. But now it’s fading. A comparison between the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) against the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) is a good proxy for this trend. IWM, heavy on smaller industrial and financial companies, rose 30 percent between the lows of May 14 and the June 8 high. QQQ, loaded with large technology companies, rose just 15 percent over that period. But now everything is changing. IWM is down about 6 percent from its pre-Fed highs, while QQQ is 1 percent higher. IWM hasn’t even benefited much from strong economic numbers recently, like the New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index or retail sales. (Those should have lifted cyclical value stocks more.) The technicals of each ETF also speak volumes because QQQ is above its February highs, while IWM is stuck below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). This growth-versus-value debate has occurred a few times in recent years. Value briefly outperformed in late 2016, and again late last year. Both times, it faded and the dominant theme of large-cap technology returned. Based on the current price action, the same thing could be happening again.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by TradeStation
1