Is Alibaba Immune to Coronavirus? RS Suggests It May BeRelative Strength shows when a stock is outperforming peers. It can be very useful when the market corrects, like we saw last week. Crisis often turns into opportunity once the dust settles.
One of the biggest surprises from RS recently is the strength in Chinese names. Despite coronavirus originating on the Mainland, many of the country's big liquid stocks have corrected less than the broader market.
Alibaba is a case in point. When the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 were crashing down toward their 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) last week, BABA didn't even come close to dropping that much. That's a classic sign of relative strength.
The e-commerce giant broke out of a long basing pattern in late 2019 and quickly surged to new highs. It then consolidated in price, and now is completing an ABC flat pattern, or double bottom. Its swings have also been much tamer than the rest of the market.
Another positive last Friday was the slight undercut of January's support around $199.50. When a stock undercuts support it often takes out obvious stops and shakes out the weak hands. The result is a false breakdown.
Traders looking for an entry in BABA may want to look for a breakout above the 21-day and 50-day SMAs, which are slightly above the current price range.
Relativestrength
IRBT Shorts "Sweep" in the Cards?IRBT - I'm expecting a move up. What I like:
- Half-assed inverse head and shoulders on a daily
- Start of an uptrend (albeit disorganized and choppy)
- Relative strength with the indexes down over 1%
- Holding closest symmetry support at $50.20
- Cluster of symmetry support from $47-48.33 with the uptrend line
-786 fib retracement at $49.31
- Big ass gap above
Beyond the technicals, my intuitive/dowsing approach is hinting at a short squeeze and move higher; and with 50% of the shares shorted (as I understand it), that could be F-U-N!
AUD fell back into bearish channel vs. SGDContinued analysis from:
If AUD is not able to rebound above the white line and finds support, expect AUD to go back down towards the lower blue trendline, possibly finding support above the 0.9 SGD psychological and VPVR level.
If AUD manages to break back above the white trendline and finds support, it will likely continue with the upward trend -- range-bound within the white channel.
FSLY - Weekly Chart Looking BullishFastly has been consolidating on the weekly chart since early November. We are now seeing the Slow Stochastic exit an oversold condition while turning positive for the first time on the weekly chart. I would like to see the RSI finally get back above 50 & hold but I placed a Note icon to point out how to potential bottom had a lot of volume behind it. The price is also rising above major volume levels on the VPVR providing little volume resistance above. All of the relative strength breakdowns are positive on this name as well.
All price targets are noted in dotted green lines using Fibonacci Extensions.
Stock of the Week: DOCUBREAKOUT AFTER BACK UP ACTION SUGGEST COMPLETION OF ACCUMULATION AND FURTHER ADVANCE
Wyckoff Story
Long-term price structure of higher highs and higher lows suggest accumulation
Breakout in Phase D confirms accumulation
Absorption bar #1 and #2 has supply followed by successful tests
Absorption bar #2 has less supply than Absorption bar #1 and it happened at higher price confirming absorption story, bullish bias and timing
Relative strength got into uptrend
Trading Target
$36 count line +(27 boxes*3 reversal*$1 box size)=$117
Pattern Confirmation:
Continuation of rally
DRI - Let's Go Out For A BiteDRI had a gap up on an earnings announcement back on March 21st. The top of this gap became support while the stock price continued to rise. This rise in price created a bearish divergence with the RSI indicator.
The earnings release in September led to a gap down. The price actually consolidated just below the March gap. Friday's trading has the price testing the resistance level of the March gap zone with the stock finding strength.
DRI is finding relative strength within the Restaurant industry but still needs some more time to see if it is gaining strength on the SPX. If the price continues to rise I would expect a re-test of the bottom of the gap down zone around $122.
How to Find Themes in FXOne of the questions I like to ask aspiring traders is this: are you bullish or bearish anything right now? It seems like a dumb question but it actually gives a wealth of information regarding the trader’s mindset and whether he is thinking multidimensionally or not. Compare these 2 replies:
I’m currently bearish on USDJPY.
I see strength in JPY across the board and prefer to play it against the NZD which seems to be weak.
The first reply is immature and shows superficial analysis. The second reply tells a lot more: the trader has scanned the full spectrum of FX crosses and has identified a theme (Jpy strength) and is puposefully playing it against NZD due to some weakness.
If a currency is strong against some trading partners but weak against others, it’s not a protagonist and we want to be following the protagonists at any moment in time. How can we systematically scan the FX universe attempting to find the current themes or best opportunities?
This is where scanning the crosses comes into play. At the moment, the JPY is having a good run. But before taking a position, I want continued confirmation that JPY is the flavor of the week or if something else is stealing the spotlight of late. So here are questions to work your way around:
What is the USD doing? Being the world’s reserve currency, it is often the main focus in FX..but not always.
Run the ruler across Gbp, Euro, Yen, Usd against their main trading partners. Is any of them dominant or passive across the board?
What we’re trying to do is make sure that the strength of JPY is not an exception limited to NZDJPY. Before selling NZDJPY, I’d prefer to see JPY strong across the board. It’s then a case of matching the strongest vs. weakest, to see if an opportunity exists.
Whenever possible, it’s best to simplify your trading endeavours and eliminate any possibility of analysis paralysis or conflicting signals. The concept of scanning the crosses in search of common movement is nothing new: FX dealers have been using the same idea for ages.
By filtering out themes and remaining on the sidelines (protecting your capital) when nothing is really standing out, your trading will never be the same, for the better.
JSE:PGR Peregrine Holdings DistributionAfter a distribution trading range (TR) Peregrine Holdings was marked down. A re-distribution range formed and there was some effort to push the stock higher but without response indicating continued supply. The demand has dried up and the stock is being pushed lower after a retest.
Which Platinum Stocks to ChooseA comparison of the weekly charts of Anglo Platinum, Impala, Northam with their relative strength (RS) to the Top 40 is presented. A 40 Week or 200 Day MA has been put on both the price chart and RS. Anglo Platinum has the strongest momentum and is breaking a longer-term trading range (TR). Lonmin is still very week. Impala has had some recent strength in a wide trading range that potentially could be forming. Northam Platinum seems to be somewhere in the middle of a very long TR. Based on this Anglo Platinum is expected to show continued good strength and will be the stock to catch on the next leg up after a pullback.
JSE Index ComparisonThese graphs are the relative strength comparison of the Resource, Industrial and Financial Index with the Top 40. This indicates that momentum since the beginning of 2018 is continuing in 2019. The 200 Day MA (or 40 Week MA) of the relative strength sow an increasing trend in the Resources and Financial Indices, while the Industrial Index is sharply declining. With a declining Top 40 a good sector to look for shorts is the industrial sector but there are good long opportunities in Gold and Platinum.
JSE Sector Comparison End of SeptemberThe JSE Top 40 has been ranging but finding some support at the breakout level of the previous trading range. Looking at the comparison of the three main sectors in the JSE since April we can evaluate recent relative strength. The Resources sector has been strong and even looking at resent lows on 12 September it has remained the strongest of the sectors. Financials have strengthened some since end of June and is also remaining above the September 12 lows. Industrials on the other hand had been tracking the Top 40 performance but since 12 September has been very week falling strongly even as the other sectors hold above the low. If the Top 40 is to break support Industrials would be the sector to look at to go short but if we see a bounce Financials and Resources would be the go to sectors.
KSHB (Kush Bottle) is Packaged for Entry for Nov. Sales GrowthKSHB (Kush Bottle, CA-USA HQ) is showing strong entry on Friday pushing towards a resistance area and great entry zone.
Kush is the primary supplier with labeling and packaging approvals for cannabis industry. Up +6.65% on 8.24.18. after
downward cup and handle Feb-June. Packaging sales should start to impact bottom line for Q4 stock with early
orders. Kush also announced last week entry into chemicals sector for CBD Oil extraction and flavoring.
I can put a bow on this packaging chart, but you'll need to fill the box yourself. Sending <3
Cannabis viewers should also understand in a bear market vice stocks sell really well, so packaging for vice products is a good
place if you don't want direct risk in any one stock.
I'm long and see this over 6.25 by Dec. with entry in low 4's earlier than signals showed.
Stock charting is advised you come to own conclusions and decide own risks.
XLE-WTI correlation; cue to XLE Cup and Handle 2-year breakoutXLE and WTI demonstrate high level of correlation i.e. move in same direction. XLE provides stock-ETF alternative for traders who do not trade WTI. Interesting to note that WTI has outperformed XLE since Q4 2017 while the latter was capped at a 2-year high printed in December 2016.
Bullish view of WTI and XLE
in previous piece I was looking for swing long WTI as a continuation trade. I see it sitting at potential support. At same time XLE is capped at 2-year high resembling a cup and handle pattern. If WTI long continuation is correct, XLE may do a breakout above this resistance. In fact there is room for XLE to catch up since it is underperforming WTI in the near term.
Bearish alternative
There is a bearish view. When correlation is found question is always which is correct A or B? What if WTI is bearish? Then XLE resistance is justified and the current underperformance would be easily justified as a divergence.
I stick to the bullish view.