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Relativestrength

DOGEUSD Dogecoin pulling back to add LONGDogecoin on the 60 minute chart has been in a good trend up for more than 36 hours. Moving averages have been diverging but price is now falling in a pullback to the SMA21 and EMA21 while the EMA 50 continues to trend higher. The relative strength look back is solid green. I see this as an excellent point to add to Dogecoin with the risk being the market cap leader Bitcoin loses momentum and takes Dogecoin and others sideways or down.
BINANCE:DOGEUSDLong
by AwesomeAvani
DELL pushes price with a big earnings beat LONGDELL reported earnings 27% beyond the estimates and traders reacted. The indicators show that relative volume was about 10X the running moving average. The RSI dual time frame indicator ( by Chris Moody) showed a 50-level cross-over on 2/22 one week before earnings. That was the best early entry and price is up 20% higher since then. The question is whether is is overextending and so will retrace. The mass index indicator is suggestive of a reversal. Overall, I will watch price action for bullish continuation while considering the possibility of a short sell into a retracement if it evolves. No matter volatility is increased I intend to make the best possible trade in response to what develops.
NYSE:DELLLong
by AwesomeAvani
EL jumps on analyst upgrade LONGEL like ULTA was beaten down in covid times. It jumped in 2021 and fell in 2022 and 2023. 2024 might be the year they thrive again. On the weekly chart, EL is back to the support of its levels of 2018. With an analyst upgrade coming from Bank of America it is now getting a bit of attention. Trend strength and relative strength were down. I see this as a good entry for a new long position in EL while also looking at ULTA. Targets are the fib zone and a correction / consolidation area on the downtrend so 200 and 250. Now is the time to invest in female beauty.....
NYSE:EL
by AwesomeAvani
The next alt season.The relative strength oscillator begins to lean towards the alts, after an initial important upward movement in BTC, the alts seem to want to follow the trend. I can deduce this from the fact that for the first time in the last two years, the oscillator has been downwards for longer than upwards, furthermore it has pierced the previous low, therefore added to the alts charts which are mostly set upwards, we can hope that this is the beginning of the new alts season. I don't expect the crazy percentages of previous years, but I can't rule it out for sure. The only thing I can do is expose myself more towards the alts hoping to have hit a good moment to establish that we are in the alts season. I put some signals in the history to see what happened in the past, it is clear that once the zero line was broken, then a period almost a year and a half long began where the alternative currencies to bitcoin had better performances than to the queen of cryptocurrencies.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by Melupira89
Bitcoin consolidating and waiting for possible reversal SHORTI see Bitcoin as ready to fall as its next move. Short sellers are positioning. Volumes are falling in a signal of capitulation. Relative strength is showing bearish divergence while price is in consolidation. The boxes are checked and it is the weekend when the price volume trend is typically sideways. This is demonstrated by the flatline PVT. I will short Bitcoin when I see a bit of a volume push. I will reassess by crypto-related stock and options positions in due diligence to protect risk.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by AwesomeAvani
3
NVAX- a medical penny stock Buy Weakness LONGNVAX on a 120 minute chart demonstrates a trend down in the past month after a period of consolidation producing the POC line on the volume profile. The MACD shows some bullish divergence. The volume profile has high volume nodes at 4.0 and 5.0 separated by a relative volume void. NVAX fell quickly through that void. It can just as easily rise through it. See the linked article on NVA from TipRanks. Options volume and pricing analysis is that bets are looking at5.0 diligently. Fundamentally, NVAX has been range limited by its focus on COVID but it does have other projects in its pipeline admittedly on various timelines with varying probabilities of capitalizing on them depending on clinical trials FDA approvals and so on. On the imbedded relative strength table as compared with SPY and peers in the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, medical device and healthcare spaces NVAX compares favorably with MRNA its closest peer but is weak compared with most of the others I have selected especially with LLY, which is high-flying from its anti-obesity drug breakout. Device companies Stryker and Intuitive Surgical are quite strong as well. United Healthcare is dominant in the insurance subsector and strong overall. One often effective strategy is to buy when an instrument is oversold and undervalued at a discount. I will buy NVAX here no matter that I have insider connections with one of those medical device companies and a few not on the list. Sentiment only goes so far. I found the article compelling and so Novavax long I go. On a trading site left unsaid my screenname is "Bottom Feeding Grinder". I have an appetite for NVAX found at the bottom right now. This is a reversal/reversion to the mean long trade. It is not without risk. As a penny stock with high volumes, low cost of entry and perhaps low floats, volatility is underscored and exaggerated if a volume inflow gets underway That said, a short squeeze is within the spectrum of possibilities. Enough said for now.
NASDAQ:NVAXLong
by AwesomeAvani
TSLA makes progress in trend up LONGTSLA on the 120-minute time frame has finished off an inverse head and shoulders pattern with the bottoms on January 26 February 6 and February 14 respectively. Price rose above the neckline at 197 and appears to be trending to retest it. My target is 220 which is the 0.5 Fib level of the prior immediate recent January trend down. The relative strength fast line is dipping for a bounce off the 50 level horizontal line. The past RSI indicator shows much improvement in strength. I will buy TSLA shares and options when price gets retraced to about 197 =/- 0.50. I expect this will happen on the next down general market day which could be as early as the morning after this present holiday.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by AwesomeAvani
2
TSLA - Relative Strength compared with peers and others SHORTOn a daily chart, the price action of TSLA is shown to be in a descending channel. An indicator has been added to show the strength of various symbols as compared with QQQ the broad ETF tracking the NASDAQ 100. TSLA is doing very poorly but better than FSR and XPEV which are performing poorly but comparatively okay compared with TSLA. Of the symbols on this list which is customizable and is a comparison on a daily time frame back six months NVDA, AMD and META as well as NFLX are outperforming QQQ the most. I have used this to further validate my TSLA put options overall as I also look at other stocks that may be of interest based on six months of performance.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by AwesomeAvani
2
Mastering the 70/30 RSI Trading Strategy - Plus Divergences!Mastering the 70/30 RSI Trading Strategy: A Comprehensive Guide The 70/30 RSI technique stands out as a popular and effective method for making informed decisions in the financial markets. Leveraging the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator, this strategy empowers traders to navigate the complexities of buying and selling various financial instruments, from stocks to currencies. In this article, we delve into the intricacies of the 70/30 RSI trading strategy, exploring its fundamentals and practical application in forex trading. Understanding the 70/30 RSI Trading Strategy: Developed by renowned technical analyst J. Welles Wilder, the RSI indicator serves as a powerful tool for evaluating market strength and identifying overbought and oversold conditions. With a range from 0 to 100, the RSI provides traders with crucial insights into market dynamics, enabling them to make timely trading decisions. At the heart of the 70/30 RSI strategy lies the establishment of two key threshold levels on the RSI indicator: 70 for overbought conditions and 30 for oversold conditions. These thresholds serve as crucial markers for generating buy or sell signals, offering traders valuable guidance in navigating market trends. ⭐️ Adding and Setting Up the RSI Indicator on Your Chart: The RSI (Relative Strength Index) Indicator is a freely available tool accessible within your TradingView Platform, irrespective of your subscription plan. Whether you're using a Free membership or one of the Premium plans, you can easily find and add this indicator to your charts. Below, I'll guide you through the process of adding and customizing the RSI indicator on your platform with the help of the following images. To begin adding the RSI indicator to your chart:👇 You can also customize the colors to your preference, just like I did by selecting your favorite ones.👇 Now, let's delve into what the RSI indicator is and how to interpret it. Interpreting RSI Signals: In essence, an RSI reading of 30 or lower signals an oversold market, suggesting that the prevailing downtrend may be ripe for reversal, presenting an opportunity to buy. Conversely, a reading of 70 or higher indicates overbought conditions, implying that the ongoing uptrend may be nearing exhaustion, presenting an opportunity to sell. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) Explained: As a momentum indicator, the RSI measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes, providing traders with insights into whether a security is overvalued or undervalued. Displayed as an oscillator on a scale of zero to 100, the RSI not only identifies overbought and oversold conditions but also highlights potential trend reversals or corrective pullbacks in a security's price. Practical Application of the RSI Strategy: Traders employing the 70/30 RSI strategy must exercise caution, as sudden and sharp price movements can lead to false signals. While RSI readings of 70 or above indicate overbought conditions and readings of 30 or less indicate oversold conditions, traders must consider additional factors and use other technical indicators to validate signals and avoid premature trades. Let's examine a few examples. Example No. 1: EUR/USD Daily Timeframe On the EUR/USD daily timeframe, we observed an overbought condition indicated by the RSI rising above the 70 level. This signaled a potential reversal in price direction. Subsequently, the price indeed reversed, confirming the overbought scenario. It's crucial to emphasize that while scenarios above the 70 RSI level or below the 30 RSI level suggest potential reversals in price, it's essential to complement your analysis with additional filters. These may include consideration of the economic environment, effective risk management strategies, and identification of triggers or patterns before initiating a trade. Below, I'll illustrate a potential trigger that aligns with the RSI 70/30 strategy: the crossover of the RSI line with the RSI-based moving average (MA). Example No. 2: In this example, the RSI strategy proved effective as we observed the price falling below the 30 level, indicating potential oversold conditions and a forthcoming reversal from the market's potential bottom. Additionally, in the image below, you'll notice the introduction of white lines, known as "divergences." I'll provide a clearer explanation of divergences in the next example. Example No. 3: In this example, denoted as circle N.3, we encounter another instance of the RSI reaching the 70 level, indicating an overbought condition. Once again, the strategy proves effective, but this time, we notice a shallower reversal compared to the previous two examples. Following this reversal, the price experiences growth, presenting a new opportunity for traders with a subsequent higher high. However, unlike before, this high does not breach the 70 RSI level, resulting in a deeper reversal. This scenario exemplifies a "divergence." But what exactly is divergence trading? Divergence trading revolves around the concept of higher highs and lower lows. When the price achieves higher highs, you would expect the oscillator (in this case, the RSI) to also record higher highs. Conversely, if the price makes lower lows, you anticipate the oscillator to follow suit, registering lower lows as well. When they fail to synchronize, with the price and the oscillator moving in opposite directions, divergence occurs, hence the term "divergence trading." I'm confident that the previous three examples were well explained to help you understand the 70/30 RSI strategy, along with the MA moving average trigger and the relative divergence strategy. Please share your thoughts in the comment section below. Key Considerations and Limitations: While the 70/30 RSI strategy offers valuable insights into market dynamics, traders must remain mindful of its limitations. True reversal signals can be rare and challenging to identify, necessitating a comprehensive approach that incorporates other technical indicators and aligns with the long-term trend. In Conclusion: The 70/30 RSI trading strategy represents a powerful framework for navigating the complexities of the financial markets. By leveraging the insights provided by the RSI indicator, traders can make well-informed decisions, identify lucrative trading opportunities, and optimize their trading strategies for success in various market conditions.
Editors' picks
Education
by FOREXN1
15
QQQ and individual stock Relative Strength multi-time framesOn this 15-minute chart I have installed an indicator twice- to compare the relative strength of several symbols /stocks in its customization. One is set up for a 15-minute time going back 4 trading days while the other on the right 5 minutes with a lookback of only 30 minutes ( fully customizable). See comments in text boxes on the chart. I believe that this can be used to help find the best entries and exits for positions to complement other indicators. The setup on the right is best for intraday trades while that on the left could be used in swing trades. This could also be used to compare indices, commodities, or currency/forex on long and low time frames for a similar function.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by AwesomeAvani
Cross-Checking Gold’s Supertrend Adaptively on MTFAGreetings Esteemed Investors, I've received numerous inquiries regarding my gold (XAU) long position. Some of you have even suggested that I might be mistaken and consider XAU to be bearish. While I cannot assess your individual trades, I can provide a more detailed explanation of my rationale. Comparing Indicators Top Chart: Supertrend This chart displays XAUUSD daily candles. I prefer daily candles to analyze gold over a year or more, as this helps filter out noise and reduce false signals. Additionally, I've applied TradingView's built-in Supertrend indicator, which often proves profitable over long timeframes. Observe the 2023 yearly chart of XAUUSD; buying when the Supertrend was positive (green) and selling when it was negative (red) would have been profitable. Bottom Chart: Advanced Dynamic Threshold RSI The bottom chart also displays XAUUSD daily candles for 2023, but here, multiple timeframes are considered using the Advanced Dynamic Threshold RSI indicator. This indicator generates weighted buy and sell signals based on RSI analysis, dynamic threshold calculation, and optional Bollinger Bands. Note the different RSIs under the candles (blue, green, and orange). The selling signals appear as red triangles and the buy signals are green triangles. Comparison: Supertrend vs Advanced Dynamic Threshold RSI Timelines In 2023's XAUUSD market, I observed that Supertrend tends to indicate bullish trends earlier than my RSI, while my RSI might indicate bearish trends sooner than Supertrend. The dotted lines on both charts show the timeline of the detected trend. The sooner the trend was detected, the earlier the timeline started. This difference in timelines highlights the potential trading advantage of using both indicators together. Exclusive & Inclusive Cross-Checking Methods Inclusive Cross-Checking Principle My Advanced Dynamic Threshold RSI indicator uses an inclusive cross-checking method, where RSI signals from different timeframes must align for a signal to be displayed. This ensures that all RSI indications are in consensus. However, this method makes the indicator slower to react on bullish shifts. Exclusive Cross-Checking Principle I used two charts and two indicators to demonstrate the potential of exclusive cross-checking. In this method, a long signal (Buy sticker) is generated if at least one of the indicators shows bullishness. In this case, one exclusive buy signal is sufficient to display the sticker. This method allows for quicker action on bullish trends. Selective Cross-Checking Principle Selective cross-checking combines exclusive and inclusive methods. The key is to understand which indicators tend to predict certain developments sooner. In 2023, for XAUUSD, Supertrend was faster for bullish trends and my indicator was faster for bearish trends. So, I wrote rules like the RSI signals of multiple timeframes must align, but I don't require the agreement of Supertrend and MFT RSI to open a position. Latest Position I opened a long position on XAUUSD on November 12th. The original stop loss was $1925, and the potential target is $2072. However, I'm using trailing profit, so the risk-reward ratio has changed. I currently wouldn't open a long position, but I'll keep the existing long position until the trail profit activates or the RSI indicator generates a sell signal. Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Conduct your own research. This publication explains only one aspect of my approach, not my comprehensive strategy. The idea focuses on observations around the price action; reading the indicator descriptions is recommended for understanding of the calculations. Sincerely, Ely
TVC:GOLDLong
by Elysian_Mind
Despite a strong week, IWM remains in trading rangePrimary Chart: IWM / Russell 2000 Weekly Timeframe The Russell 2000 (IWM) is often a leading indicator in US markets. It led to the downside in early November 2021 after a false breakout out of its 2021 topping-pattern's resistance around $234. SPX topped nearly two months later on January 4, 2022. While small-caps are not necessarily always the first to make a move, it is something frequently cited by commentators and analysts. This is why the Russell 2000 is important for traders and investors to follow to maintain a deeper understanding of the broader US equity markets. Despite a very strong weekly close for IWM, its price remains in the lower half of its trading range. This trading range has contained price for the past 1.5 years, since the topping pattern's support (at the upper blue rectangle) broke down in January 2022. Unlike other major US indices like the Nasdaq 100, IWM has continued to struggle and remains well below its August 2022 and January / February 2023 highs. Two months ago, in a recent post titled " Something is Rotten in the State of Markets ," IWM's underperformance of SPX provided a basis for discussion as to why US equity markets may remain unhealthy despite the bullish price action YTD (see link below). A strong and long-lasting bull market should show signs of broad participation. Many breadth indicators have shown very narrow breadth. It's not a surprise, in fact, that SPX's rally and upside performance has been driven by 5 to 10 SPX names, with the other 490-495 flat, lagging, or up weakly. Supplementary Chart A This previous April 10 analysis displayed a hypothetical price path intended to reflect the possibility of more sideways and choppy price action in the intermediate term. The choppy price action has largely unfolded as expected (click the play / refresh arrow on the prior post from April 10, 2023). In fact, IWM's price at the time of the prior post was at $173.89, and a month later on May 8 it had closed almost at the same level around $172.72. Now IWM appears to be breaking above the recent trading range. Major levels of resistance appear on the Primary Chart as Fibonacci levels (the .618 retracement and the .50 retracement, which is not technically a Fibonacci proportion) as well as the anchored VWAP from the November 2021 ATH. How price responds to these levels will be important to watch in coming weeks especially after June 16, 2023 OPEX—a quad witching event. It is notable that IWM trades far below its major ATH VWAP from November 2021. Compare how IWM's price trades relative to this VWAP (labeled on the Primary Chart above) with how SPY's price trades relative to its ATH VWAP. SPY's VWAP anchored to its ATH is shown in Supplementary chart B below. Supplementary Chart B Finally, a relative chart of Russell 2000 vs. S&P 500 is helpful to examine these two major US equity indices and how IWM has performed YTD relative to the SPY / SPX. See Supplementary Chart C below. This relative chart shows IWM still in a downtrend relative to SPY. And it still shows that IWM vs. SPY remains below major resistance. Given that IWM is a leading index at times, it will be interesting to see whether what happens to the major resistance on this relative chart that was broken in early April 2023. Will it hold? Supplementary Chart C In summary, the small-cap stocks in the US equity market are lagging despite putting in a strong weekly performance this week of +3.33%. The primary trend in small caps remains sideways by any measure. Will IWM play catch up to the other main US indices like S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ) and Nasdaq 100 ( NASDAQ:NDX NASDAQ:QQQ )? No one knows for sure. But the liquidity problems plaguing the US economy tend to show up in the weakest names first, which usually are also the smallest names. Could IWM's underperformance be a sign of this liquidity stress? Or will it catch up to confirm that the current rally in NDX and SPY are perfectly healthy under the hood and headed to new all-time highs? Stay tuned. And thanks for reading this and for your encouragement and support. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Editors' picks
AMEX:IWM
by SquishTrade
25
🔄 OP vs. TON: Similar Patterns🔄In the dynamic world of cryptocurrencies, every project charts its unique course. However, sometimes, two projects exhibit strikingly similar patterns. Such is the case with OP and TON, where their charts mirror each other within a large ascending triangle. Yet, beneath this surface similarity, the level of volatility introduces a fascinating twist. Chart Patterns: Twins in Ascending Triangles OP and TON, like twins in the crypto space, are both navigating a significant ascending triangle pattern. This pattern is indicative of bullish sentiment, showcasing an accumulation phase that often leads to upward breakouts. Volatility Dynamics: Diverging Paths While the charts may align, the volatility levels tell a diverging story. OP, with a 100% rise from its recent local low, demonstrates a steady climb. On the other hand, TON has surged by an impressive 200%, showcasing a higher level of volatility and potentially attracting more attention from traders. Trading Strategy: Navigating the Twins' Paths For traders, understanding and capitalizing on the nuanced differences in volatility is key. The steady rise of OP may be appealing for those seeking a more stable climb, while the higher volatility of TON could offer lucrative but riskier opportunities. Tailoring trading strategies to the unique characteristics of each asset is crucial. Conclusion: A Duo in the Crypto Symphony As OP and TON continue their journeys, the crypto community is presented with a unique duo. Their shared patterns create an interesting comparison point, while their individual volatility levels provide diversity in trading opportunities. Whether you're drawn to the steadiness of OP or enticed by the volatility of TON, the crypto symphony plays on. 🔄 OP vs. TON Analysis | 📈 Trading Twins | 💡 Investor Perspectives ❗See related ideas below❗ Have you ventured into the realms of OP and TON? Share your trading strategies in the comments! 💚📊💚
by Yaroslav_Krasko
CRWD - Ready to bounce?CRWD - Ready to bounce? Despite the steep decline in the general market that started in mid July, CRWD was actually trending higher, showing good relative strength. In fact,it is still trading above its 50 day MA while both SPX and NQ is now well below this MA. There are a few signs that CRWD could be ready to bounce from it's recent correction that started on 19th Oct: 1. Bullish divergence between price and RSI on its daily chart 2. An Inside bar last Friday that could signal the near term correction could be ending I will long as soon as it crosses above last Friday's candle (inside bar) high @ 175.70 with an initial stop loss about $1 below its recent low @ $170. Disclaimer: This is just my own analysis and opinion for discussion and is NOT a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management (ie trailing stop loss and position sizing) is (probably the most) important! Take care and Good Luck!
NASDAQ:CRWDLong
by Juliac
United Bankshares Inc (UBSI) Reports Q3 2023 Earnings:United Bankshares Inc (NASDAQ:UBSI) released its Q3 2023 earnings report on October 25, 2023. The company reported earnings of $96.2 million, or $0.71 per diluted share, compared to earnings of $92.5 million, or $0.68 per diluted share, for Q2 2023. Despite the challenging environment, UBSI demonstrated resilient performance with accelerated growth and profitability. The Moving Average(MA) on UBSI is quiet impressive sighting a potential surge in price after the 3rd Quarter Reports. Performance and Challenges UBSI's Q3 2023 results produced annualized returns on average assets, average equity, and average tangible equity of 1.31%, 8.14%, and 13.71%, respectively. This is an improvement from Q2 2023, which saw returns of 1.26%, 7.96%, and 13.47%, respectively. However, these figures were lower than the Q3 2022 returns of 1.41%, 8.96%, and 15.46%, respectively. Financial Achievements Net interest income for Q3 2023 increased by $992 thousand, or less than 1%, from Q2 2023. This was primarily due to the impact of rising market interest rates on earning assets, a change in the asset mix to higher earning assets, and lower average balances of long-term borrowings. However, this was partially offset by higher interest expense driven by deposit rate repricing and higher average balances of interest-bearing deposits. Income Statement Analysis The provision for credit losses was $5.9 million for Q3 2023, a significant decrease from $11.4 million for Q2 2023. This decrease was mainly due to a decrease in qualitative adjustments and the impact of reasonable and supportable forecasts of future macroeconomic conditions, partially offset by additional provision expense due to loan growth. Noninterest income for Q3 2023 decreased by $1.5 million, or 4%, from Q2 2023. This decrease was primarily due to a decrease in mortgage loan servicing income of $9.0 million, partially offset by lower net losses on investment securities of $7.2 million. Company's Performance Analysis Despite the challenging environment, UBSI demonstrated resilient performance with accelerated growth and profitability. The company's effective management of its assets and liabilities, coupled with its strong capital, liquidity, and asset quality positions, contributed to its robust performance in Q3 2023. However, the decrease in noninterest income and the increase in net interest income indicate that the company may need to adjust its strategies to optimize its income sources. Furthermore, the decrease in the provision for credit losses suggests that the company has been effective in managing its credit risk. Overall, UBSI's Q3 2023 earnings report shows a resilient performance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average (MA) all indicating a potential surge in the stock amidst a challenging environment. The company's strong financial position and effective risk management strategies have enabled it to maintain its profitability and deliver value to its shareholders.
NASDAQ:UBSILong
by DEXWireNews
Introduction to Relative Strength Part 3In parts one and two (linked) we discussed the construction and use of relative strength ratios (RS) in trading and analysis, common errors, and best practice. In part three we look at the consumer discretionary to consumer staples ratio and attempt to draw trading and economic insight from that analysis. Any method used to analyze a single security price chart can be used to analyze ratios. I tend to use simple methods and I do not require the same precision in terms of retracements and support/resistance that I would use when analyzing or trading a single security. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) / Consumer Staples (XLP): I generally think about this ratio in two ways. The first, and for my purposes, the most important, it reflects the markets judgement around the strength of the economy. When the economy is improving, as it has over the last few months, the ratio should weaken (which it has done). This is because as discretionary income rises, confident consumers are more likely to spend on non-essentials or staples. When they are less confident, they spend less on non-essential discretionary and more on staples. It is important to remember that consumption is around 70% of GDP. For economic or macro analysis, I prefer to use monthly perspective charts. I believe that the long outperformance of discretionary relative to staples is mostly due to the massive liquidity added to the system since the great financial crisis. The liquidity that has aided consumers and thus the economy in general. As liquidity normalizes and the economy slows, staples should begin to outperform discretionary. The second is creating a tradable spread. Creating proportional spreads (see part two) between two sector ETF's, expressing trades that overweight or underweight specific sectors inside a portfolio, or creating pairs trades using names within the two sectors are all legitimate uses of ratios. When creating pairs trades inside a sector my preference is to use each sectors market largest capitalization names (market generals) as they are less vulnerable to idiosyncratic risk. I also prefer to pair names with similar businesses. For instance, I would not pair Walmart (staples) with Tesla (discretionarily) but would consider Walmart or Costco verses Amazon. One final thought, profitable spread trades can be structured using either highly positive or negatively correlated pairs. What fails to work consistently are spreads with spurious correlation. Chart 1 TOP: Monthly Consumer Discretionary (XLY) in ratio to Consumer Staples (XLP): Top Panel: Close line charts for both ETFs. Since XLY on the left scale trades at over two times the price level of XLP (172 verses 72), XLP has been compressed in order to easily compare the paths of the two symbols. Clearly both staples and discretionary have significant positive long-term correlation as they follow the larger market higher and lower. The high degree of correlation suggests that the two markets can be generally expected to trend together, but at varying rates depending on the consumer/economic outlook. It is the difference in the rates of change that creates the profit or loss. Monthly: Technically, the ratio topped in October 2008 and since 2011 has trended lower in a well-defined channel. That channel was broken in March 2022 as inflation exploded higher and the Federal Reserve began to tighten monetary policy (both actions hurt discretionary spending). Over the last few months, as the outlook improved and the economic narrative changed to soft landing, the ratio has again turned lower and is now testing the area of the broken trendline that defined the broad down sloping channel. MACD momentum remains on a sell signal. In this perspective, I view the chart at an important juncture from which a sign of either strength or weakness is likely to define the trend for the next year. Weekly Detail: Note the narrow Bollinger band and the turn higher over the last few weeks. A break above the lateral resistance coupled with a break of the downtrend would strongly suggest that staples are likely to outperform over coming months. As a last step, I like to examine the raw bar charts on both sides of the spread. In this case, like the general market, both look weak. Discretionary is retreating from the top of its range while staples are resting at good support. The concern here would be that a breakdown from a long range of distribution would likely generate significant selling and imply significantly lower lows. Conclusion: I suspect that the spread is in the process of bottoming and that, as the economy weakens over the next few months, staples will outperform. But, overt proof of a turn higher is lacking. While the recent hook higher is promising, it needs to move above the overhead resistance. If it does, odds become very good that the economy is weakening and that staples will enter a significant cycle of outperformance. And finally, many of the topics and techniques discussed in this post are part of the CMT Associations Chartered Market Technician’s curriculum. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Taylor Financial Communications Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur
AMEX:XLP
by CMT_Association
4