4 Reasons why the BTC Bottom could be CloseINDEX:BTCUSD
In today's video I look at 4 reasons why I think we are close to the bottom:
1. 200 week MA - historically the 200 week MA has indicated the bottom
2. Fibonacci golden pocket retracement - a fib pulled from the very start of bitcoin in July 2010 to the all time high, show a zone for the possible low
3. Weekly RSI - historically we have never gone below a certain level and we are nearing that level
4. CME Gaps waiting to be filled - there is a gap that is about to be filled
These four factors are aligning very well with weekly and daily support levels that BTC is nearing.
Could this be the bottom or close to it?
Have a look at the video and let me know in the comments what you think.
Not financial advice. DYOR. Papertrade before using real money.
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Safe trading.
Shawn
Relativestrength
Volatility within a rangeHere’s one if you like drama. Barely averting a strike in Norway, ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, the Saudis cutting supply to China, oil is in the middle of it all. With so much uncertainty, oil has been suffering bouts of volatility recently which presents an opportunity for trading.
Over the past month, crude oil futures seem to be trading within an ascending wedge. A bollinger band marks out the upper and lower range that prices have bounced off previously. When coupling this with Relative Strength Index (RSI), we see a recurring pattern where prices bounce off the lower bollinger band as RSI reaches the oversold levels. With current prices trading near oversold levels and the bottom bollinger band just a touch away, we see a bounce on the horizon.
Let’s stay patient and wait for confirmation from prices touching either the support of the ascending wedge or breaking the lower bollinger band before committing to the position.
Entry at 117.8, stop below 114.5. Target at 125.
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
HAL about to break out from a stage 2 baseHAL is showing incredible strength, with a cluster of RS before new highs and even after a day of significant selling, price still held the short term uptrend that also forms the handle in this cup and handle pattern. Over $42.60 and this stock sees new ATHs with just over a month to go before earnings; HAL has done well on the last 4 earnings and in this current market this looks likely to happen again. Volume has been contracting during this accumulation phase, but this stock looks ready for a strong next leg up
FLEX potential breakout from a stage 2 baseFLEX has shown good relative strength recently and looks like it's been under accumulation since April (see the yellow dots). Price filled the gap 2 days ago on good volume and yesterday saw a bullish looking inside day with a pocket pivot. If price can hold over $30.47 we could see a decent move to new ATHs
CNX over key pivot to reach ATHsCNX has shown great strength recently and broke over $23.33 pivot to hit new ATHs yesterday; volume has also increased, having shown volume dry up during the accumulation phase. The U/D ratio on this ticker is also good and suggestive of institutions buying this stock up.
GNK breakout to ATHsGNK has seen a recent increase in volume and clear signs of accumulation in the last few months, in particular drifting price after pocket pivot signals in the volume indicator. This resulted in GNK breaking out to ATHs over the $26 pivot level yesterday. Relative strength is good and price is holding up well despite bearish market conditions. Look for price to hold over $26 with volume, which will confirm this previous resistance is now acting as support
Alico Inc. $ALCO, inside bar signalAlico Inc NASDAQ:ALCO produces citrus fruit, while engaged in catle ranching and conservation. So is in the Agricultural Operations Industru Group and is Ranked #1 in Profit Margins. Although, for the six months ended 31 March 2022, Alico, Inc. revenues decreased 7%.
The thing is that the technicals are showing strength. With a IBD RS rating of 94, ths stock price is n a confirmed uptrend. Today's price range is inside the previous bar. A breakout above yesterday's range is a pretty good buy signal for me.
PS: IBD is signaling a confirmed uptrend in the CME_MINI:ESM2022 .
Why exit is importantRelative Strength is an important measure in my opinion. When a script loses its strength, then market knows more about it.
A simple set up would have avoided some pain here.
Next potential support levels are drawn - hope it will find support at these levels
Disc : Sharing a Technical View and not a buy / sell recommendation. Not Holding.
$BPT breaking out of a one month base!* Strong recent up trend
* Breaking out of a one month base
* Pays dividends
* Price looks good on all time frames.
Technicals:
* Sector: Energy - Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
* Relative Strength vs. Sector: 2.07
* Relative Strength vs. SP500: 6.83
* U/D Ratio: 1.25
* Base Depth: 32.41%
* Distance from breakout buy point: 1.92%
* Volume 14.33% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can enter at yesterdays closing price as it's close to the broken resistance.
* If you're looking for a better entry you might be able to catch a bid around the $17 area
* Target for the trade is a historical level of resistance around the $19.2 area
$DSX breaking out of a ~8 month base! Can it go higher?* Steady up trend over the past two years
* Consolidated for about 8 months
* Formed a cup and handle pattern
* Now breaking out of the cup base
Technicals:
* Sector: Industrials - Marine Shipping
* Relative Strength vs. Sector: 20.4
* Relative Strength vs. SP500: 18.49
* U/D Ratio: 1.38
* Base Depth: 82.07%
* Distance from breakout buy point: 0.33%
* Volume 73.26% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can enter now as the price is just breaking out of its base
* If you're looking for a better entry you can look for one around the $5.77 area
* Given the macro situation of the world it does seem like shipping stocks will move higher in the near future
$ARIS ready to move higher?* Nice up trend
* Resisted the current bear market really well
* Looks good on all time frames
Technicals:
* Sector: Utilities - Utilities - Regulated Water
* Relative Strength vs. Sector: 3.09
* Relative Strength vs. SP500: 13.1
* U/D Ratio: 1.06
* Base Depth: 24.41%
* Distance from breakout buy point: 0.1%
* Volume 72.3% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can enter now as the price is just breaking out of its base
* Or if you're looking for a better entry you can look for one around the $18.19 area as that should serve as a level of support.
* Looking at $XLU it does seem like Utilities are ready to move higher and ARIS seems to be a leader in this space.
Your RSI is telling you where to set your take profit.*****While i was typing this up and the video was ALREADY uploaded. the trade went through perfectly***
As you can see from the linked chart image, the highest candle closed exactly where I said the #RSI formula told me the move would end.
See the time of May 19th at 8:35am. Notice where the candle closed.
I calculated this point from an RSI signal appearing May 19th at 6:35am (2 hours prior with price action still happening BELOW the 200ma) just before it broke a trend line.
Welcome back to Coffee Shop crypto everybody. I just wanted to drop a quick little video about the #RSI formula that tells you where you can set your take profit.
Im going to be honest with you. This is going to be a VERY confusing formula to follow at first but once you realize the pattern in the numbers, this is going to come to you like a second language. Watch the video and look at the formula breakdown below.
****MAKE SURE TO ASK ME QUESTIONS BELOW****
I know it will be confusing but if you dont ask the questions, you wont know where you're missing it. Honestly, its SO simple, its too simple, and this is why most of you really smart guys are going to be like "HUH?! WTF Is he talking about here?!"
There's a formula I've developed and tested for the past few months, which you can use and seems to work over and over and over again, that when you read your #RSI above the 200-day moving average or below the 200-day moving average, your #RSI is basically telling you where exactly to set your risk reward. You can do the calculation in your head, or even just set a list of 4 numbers from this formula on a piece of paper and leave it next to your screen, and use them to set your trade.
This formula cooinsides greatly with #Fibonacci retracement lines but you dont need to set a FIB to use them. All you need to know is:
A) Where is entry candle
B)Am i uptrend of downtrend
This will equate to what part of the formula you use.
Firstly you need to know what the RSI was at the close of the candle PREVIOUS to your entry candle.
Let me say that again.
To find the RSI for this formula, you need to know the RSI of the candle, previous to the entry candle.
If you realize you are entering a trade late and want to calculate weather you have time to still get in, you can use this formula against the candle that you missed, to see how far the move will go. And youll be able to catch some pips before the move is over.
The Formula:
This is an example of when you are Above the 200MA
RSI = 50-59 / 1:3 (this is a normal safe bet but it doesn't get you the full move)
Use the formula for example. If your RSI = 51.55. Remove the last digit (5)
Move the decimal one space to the left. Now you have 5.15
Your Risk reward should be 1 : 3.15
Remember that an RSI of 50 ~ 59 is a 1 : 3 Ratio. This formula simply allows you to add the rest of the move to the end of the 3.
RSI = 60-69 / 1:4 (this is a normal safe bet but it doesn't get you the full move)
Use the formula for example. If your RSI = 61.55. Remove the last digit (5)
Move the decimal one space to the left. Now you have 6.15.
Your Risk reward should be 1 : 4.15
Remember that an RSI of 60-69 is a 1 : 4 Ratio. THis formula simply allows you to add the rest of the move to the end of the 4
RSI = 70-79 / 1:8 (this is a normal safe bet but it doesn't get you the full move)
Use the formula for example. If your RSI = 71.55. Remove the last digit (5)
Move the decimal one space to the left. Now you have 7.15.
Your Risk reward should be 1 : 8.15
Remember that an RSI of 70-79 is a 1 : 8 Ratio. This formula simply allows you to add the rest of the move to the end.
RSI = 80-89 / 1:10 (this is a normal safe bet but it doesn't get you the full move)
Or use the formula for example. If your RSI = 81.55. Remove the last digit (5)
Move the decimal one space to the left. Now you have 8.15.
Your Risk reward should be 1 : 10.15
Remember that an RSI of 80-89 is a 1 : 10 Ratio. This formula simply allows you to add the rest of the move to the end
RULES:
Your EMAs must all be lined up in a BULLISH format.
DO NOT Trade between the bands.
This best works against a 200ma below and a 50ma above.
RSI must be set at 14
I have only tested this against USD pairs and Crypto pairs.
*****If you want to use this on a #Bearish market****
You only need to subtract (1) from the formula.
Bullish formula:
RSI 50 = 1 : 3 (add the first 2 numbers after the decimal to this ration and you've got the move)
RSI 60 = 1 : 4
RSI 70 = 1 : 8
RSI 80 = 1 : 10
Bearish formula:
RSI -50 = 1 : 2
RSI -60 = 1 : 3
RSI -70 = 1 : 7
RSI -80 = 1 : 9
XRP to drop over 12%
Welcome to Coffee Shop crypto everybody this is just going to be a quick one for you xrp is going to drop about 12 and a half percent if you take a look at the chart that I have up below feel free to go ahead and copy to straight into your demo account and test it out for yourself there is a Formula that I use for the RS I that will tell me the exact beginning to end of a move now this is a several day trade probably I wouldn't call it a swing trade this could happen very quickly so let me rephrase that last statement. This is a day trade movement on the 1-hour time chart and I'm doing this with an RSI set up 14 a stuck a stick set at 200 and I'm looking at a split screen display of both heiken Ashi candles and price action regular candles Chinese candles so we are in a downtrend this is a bearish move and it is not my go to move but if you want to test out that my formula for RSI works on your own demo account feel free to do so now as far as I can see the RS I was hitting at about 55.41 I think it was or 54.4 + that tells me that my r s i needs to be that my risk-reward needs to be at a 1 to 4.5 or 1 to 4.3 something like that I don't have that screen up in front of me at the moment but feel free and just copy the trading to your demo count. if it works out for you, please come back and comment that it's all good, and I'll show you how to get into that formula. I have no problem doing it. I will however the future very soon set up a video showing the formula and the different stages of when you go 1 to 2, 1 to 3, 1 to 4, 1 to 8, 1 to 10 and 1 to 12 on your risk-reward based on what your RSI tells you. that's it for now feel free to leave your comments below. if you can hear the music in the background by the way this show is sponsored by anti FM radio.com and this is coffee shop crypto.
A long-overdue small-cap reboundThe small-cap Russell 2000 Index has been the underdog among the four major US indices since last year. Its post-pandemic rally halted in early 2021, and subsequently, it went sideways for more than a year without making new highs. Meanwhile, the tech darlings continued to go north all the way until the beginning of this year.
The first half of 2022 has been marked by widespread risk-off sentiment and a precipitous drop in the US equity market. After being down almost 30% from the high, we now find the Russell 2000 Index at significant technical support levels that we believe a meaningful rebound will likely ensue.
The Index has bounced right at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level near 1700. We also observed bullish RSI Divergence where price made lower lows, but RSI showed higher lows, suggesting the bearish momentum is waning and at the cusp of a reversal.
Entry at 1806, stop above 1680. Targets are 1880 and 2100.
Disclaimer:
The contents in this idea are intended for information purposes only and do not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
Bitcoin (BTC) repeat of 2014 crash?The price action between 2014 and 2022 is different, there is no doubt about that.
But look at the moving average (yellow line) of the RSI. It is very similar, almost identical.
There were 6 key moves in the 2014 bull cycle which I highlighted on the chart. There seem to be 6 corresponding key moves for the current cycle as well. The 6th move, which marks a capitulation event, might be about to happen.
In 2014 the RSI broke down from the falling wedge and price declined by 73%. If history repeats and that same move happens today, we end up at about $10K. $10K is a very important level historically. It's acted as support and resistance multiple times.
I'm sceptical that we'll see a 73% crash this time around, since we only need a 30% correction to retest the 200-week MA. But then again the macro landscape today is markedly worse than 2014, so who knows how ugly a capitulation could get.