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Relative Volatility Index (RVI)

Daily Market Analysis - BTCThe market has continued down and has dropped to $256.39B. Dominance is down to 67%. The price of Bitcoin is at 9500. Price action was unable to break above the resistance at 10,800 yesterday and a quick reversal began taking place. Within a period of 2 hours, the price fell from 10,500 down to 9,400. Over the past 4 hours, the price has slowly risen making higher lows. On the daily chart, the RVI has finally dropped below 50, which has been a significant area of reversal in the past. The MACD is heavily oversold and the signal line is approaching the zero point. That tells us the trend is oversold and is losing strength. Bearish: The price is unable to find support at 9500, and breaks further to the downside to 8,500 - 9,000. Bullish: A large amount of buying pressure causes a quick reversal back up to 10,100 - 10,500 as was seen roughly 2 weeks ago the last time price had quick reaction. Bearish 55% / Bullish 45%
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by SpektreSignal
Daily Market Analysis - BTCOver the weekend, we saw a relatively steep sell off pushing the price down from 11,800 down to 9,800. Today though, the market has moved begun moving back up and the global cap is at $288B. Dominance is up to 67.43% causing a very tight squeeze on alts. The price of Bitcoin is at 10,800. The price has been able to gain support at the Tenkan Sen (base line) and has rebounded from a low of 9,800 up to 10,800. This tells us there is still a lot of buying pressure below the 10,000 price level. The stochastic RSI look to be forming a large double bottom acting as a large spring. However, the RVI is still above 50 despite the sell off, and that warrants caution. Currently, we see the price is testing the resistance trendline caused by the sell off. Bearish: The price is unable to break above the resistance trendline at ~11,000 and pulls back down to 10,100. Bullish: Price action breaks to the topside of resistance with rising volume and tests resistance between 11,000 - 11,700. Bullish 60% / Bearish 40%
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by SpektreSignal
Daily Market Analysis - BTCThe market keeps moving up, today the global cap is up to $325.25B. Dominance rose up following the price action to 63.70%. The price of Bitcoin is at 11,600. The price action has been volatile, but Bitcoin continues it's overall upward trend. The StochasticRSI was unable to cross above 20, but the RVI is indicating a reduction in volatility. However, the price was unable to break through resistance at the yellow trendline. Smaller timeframes are overbought, which indicate the price action could continue to fall in the short-term. The volume has been shrinking, which further support short-term bearishness. If the short-term trend continues, we could see the price pull back to 11,300-11,000. Bearish: Price action continues it's downward trend and price re-test support at 11,000 Bullish: Price action diverges from indicators caused by volume support above the 11,500 price point causing price action to reverse and break above the yellow resistance trendline at 12,000. Bearish 60% / Bullish 40%
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by SpektreSignal
Daily Market Analysis - BTCThe market is up to $315B. Dominance is back up to 63.08%. The price of Bitcoin is at 11,300. After the price broke through 11,000, it was able to reach up to 11,700, but has been ranging between the two price levels since then. On the daily chart, we can see the StochasticRSI has begun to react to the bullish price action, but it has not yet crossed over it's confirmation level, which is generally accepted to be at 20. The RVI has reversed indicating the positive price action Bitcoin has felt the past 2 days. However, the volume is lowering, and the current price action should be acted on cautiously. The 4-hour timeframe still indicates short-term overbought territory. If the price is unable to maintain support above 11,000, the price could re-test support between 10,200-10,500. Bearish: The price is unable to maintain 11,000 and breaks down to the 10,200-10,500 price range over the next 8-16 hours. Bullish: Bullish volume flows into the market causing the short-term price action to break 11,700 resistance, which would create a higher low on the daily charts and cause the Stochastic RSI to reach up to, or above, it's confirmation level. Bearish 40% / Bullish 60%
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by SpektreSignal
Daily Market Analysis - BTCThe market is testing a bottom and is up to $308.46B. Dominance has is up to 62.57%. The price of Bitcoin is at 10,800. Today, we will be using the 1 hour and 1-day charts. On the hourly chart, 7 hours ago, the price jumped up from 9,900 - 10,500. Over the following 6 hours, the price has continued to rise. Although the Kumo has not yet reacted on smaller timeframes, the 1 hour shows the chikou span up crossing the price action (in yellow) If the price is able to break above the short-term resistance of the kumo, the price could continue it's short-term uptrend and test resistance at 11,000. On the daily charts, we can see that there is heavy buying pressure waiting between 9,600 - 9,900 illustrated by the two long wicks on the past daily candles. In addition, the stochastic RSI has begun to form a bottom, but because it is a lagging indicator, there is no confirmation. Furthermore, the RVI has started to curl up indicating short-term upwards momentum. Bearish: Price fails to break resistance at 11,000, and falls back to 9,800. Bullish: The price breaks out from resistance at 11,000 and re-tests 11,300. Bearish 40% / Bullish 60%.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by SpektreSignal
Daily Market Analysis - BTCThe market has continued to descend over the weekend. Today, the market cap is down to $300B. Dominance has dropped down to 61.64%. The price of Bitcoin is re-testing support levels at 10,200. From a technical standpoint, the bottom has not yet been found, but the Stochastic RSI has dropped to 1.87, and the RVI has moved below the halfway point at 50. As the indicators begin to reach their bottom, the price should begin to move sideways for a period of time before we see another phase of renewed buying. Bearish: The price breaks below its support at 10,200 and re-tests 9500. Bullish: A quick reversal, although improbable, would not be uncommon in the cryptocurrency markets. Smaller timeframes are generally more bullish at the moment, and we could see the price reach 10,800-11,200 Bearish 60% / Bullish 40%
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by SpektreSignal
Daily Market Analysis - BTCThe market continues its ascent! Global cap is up to $330.63B. As money continues to shift from altcoins and into bitcoin, the market dominance has rose above 60% to 60.91%. The price of Bitcoin is at 11,300. The current chart pattern is forming another rising wedge. Due to the market structure and broader economic conditions, there is a higher probability that this wedge will also resolve as a continuation. The RVI has broken above 90, which tells us that the momentum behind price has continued to increase, but that also means there is more liquidity and therefore volatility. The ADX shows us that the current uptrend has continued to pick up strength as the trend line has risen above 30. Trend strength and direction is also reinforced by the fact that the Kumo continues to rise concurrent with price action. Bearish: Price breaks to the downside and re-tests support at 11,000. Bullish: Price breaks to the topside of the rising wedge and begins testing resistance at 11,500 -11,700 Bullish: 65% / Bearish: 35%
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by SpektreSignal
Daily Market Analysis - BTCOver the weekend, the market continued it's growth. It is up to $285.32B. Dominance has followed Bitcoin and is up to 57.88%. The price of Bitcoin is testing is resistance point at 9300. The market has steadily risen over the weekend. Yesterday, there was clear profit taking at 9300 down to 8900 before buying pressure moved back in. The MACD and RVI tell us that the market is in for a big move, and that momentum is rapidly rising, which also means more volatility. The volume has been on the rise which suggests this move has momentum and strength behind it. However, the volume has been low on the hourly charts. There is a large bullish divergence on the 4 hour chart suggesting continuation. Bearish: Profit taking kicks it at 9300 and the price falls back down to 8800-9000. Bullish: Price breaks through 9300 resistance backed by rising volume . Price tests 9500. Possibly 10000. Bullish 60% / Bearish 40%
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by SpektreSignal
Daily Market Analysis - BTCThe market is slightly down to $250.93B. Dominance has dropped further to 55.99%. The price of Bitcoin is down to 7865. Over the past 7 trading days, the price has been confined to a price between 7400-8000. The overall market conditions while oversold, has not been able to bring in buyers above 8000. In addition, the market structure continues to shift as dominance drops which drives bullish conditions for altcoins. However, the underlying volatility for Bitcoin as displayed by the RVI remains range-bound between 40 - 60. If the volatility had continued to drop in line with the StochasticRSI and MACD, the market structure would be more bullish for Bitcoin overall. Further sideways action should be expected to cause additional choppy market action until one of the two critical points of resistance or support has broken. Bearish: Critical support of 7400 breaks. Bullish: Critical resistance at 8000 breaks. Bullish 50% / Bearish 50%
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by SpektreSignal
Daily Market Analysis - BTCThe market is up to $247.76B. Dominance has dropped further and is down to 56.05%. The price of Bitcoin is just above 7750. The current daily candle has formed a rare four-price doji, which signals indecision among market participants about which direction the price will move next. The stochasticRSI is oversold and forming a double bottom, and the RVI tells us that volatility has become muted. Bearish Scenario: If the price breaks below 7500, it is very likely that the price will re-test 7200 support. Bullish Scenario: A large influx of volume in a short period of time could cause the price to stay within the ascending channel and reach the next level of resistance at 8000. 60% Bullish / 40% Bearish
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by SpektreSignal
Daily Market Analysis - BTCThe market sold off yesterday. It is down to $265.07B. Dominance has lowered to 56.45%. The price of Bitcoin is at ~8400. The price is testing the side of the channel, and the candlesticks are forming tweezer bottoms, which suggests the price could reverse, keeping the channel valid as we move forward. The candles with the lightning bolts indicate large moves ranging ranging between 11-18%. Each maribozu candles surpasses the swing high of the previous one, for this pattern to continue, the current candle would need to move 11 - 19%. That would place the price at 9400 - 10,100. A downside break of the current support would lead us to re-test at 7700-8000.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by SpektreSignal
1
Daily Market Analysis - BTCThe markets are volatile today, earlier the market was up to $283 billion, but dropped down to $270.34 in less than 2 hours time. Dominance is up to 56.62%. The price of Bitcoin is at 8600. The price of Bitcoin jumped to 9000 and quickly retraced to 8500 in a bout of profit taking from traders and bots. The price has 2 days before testing the ascending channel wall. We know there are billions of dollars ready to move into the market on the sidelines as witnessed by the immediate bounce from 8500-8600, which reinforces the continued buying pressure at the 8500 mark. Until the price definitively closes above 9000 or below 8500, you should be ready to react with the market. A close above 9000 would signal a move to 9200. A break below 8500 would signal a re-test of support at 8000. Potential upcoming catalysts include the opening of Fidelity crypto trading. News was announced they plan to open services within the next weeks. That announcement was made ~5 weeks ago. Unless Fidelity fails to adhere to it's timeline, we should be ready for an announcement within the next month.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by SpektreSignal
Daily Market Analysis - BTCThe market is up to $271.96%. Dominance has dropped down to 56.38%. The price of Bitcoin is at 8700. In a 2-hour period, the price of Bitcoin dropped from 8640 down to 8432. However, the price quickly recovered it's losses in less than 4 hours indicating there is buying demand ready to step in below the 8500 price point. The Tenkan (blue line) has begun drifting upward conveying increased short term price momentum. The RVI indicates lowering volatility and the ADX trend strength is still above 40 meaning the trend is strong. Once dominance begins to shift, and volume increases, there should be little resistance to stop Bitcoin from re-testing 9000. Within the next 3 days, the price should break if the price continues to respect the ascending channel pattern.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by SpektreSignal
Daily Market Analysis - BTCThe market has continued to increase in volume over the weekend and is up to $268.60B. Dominance is up to 57.59%. The price of Bitcoin broke resistance at 8500 and 8800. The price is currently at 8750. The price has continued to confirm the ascending channel, and broke to the upside after testing the bottom trendline. The stochastic RSI and RVI both indicate increasing upwards momentum. If this move continues to follow it's price path, we should see resistance tested at 9600 sometime this week. However, we will need to see the daily candle close above 8800 and increasing volume on the next move up.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by SpektreSignal
Daily Market Analysis - BTCThe market is up to $248.45B. Dominance has followed and is up to 57.35%. The price of Bitcoin is at 8000. Yesterday, the price made contact with the channel and the price has followed that path up from 7400 to 8100. Price is forming a bullish divergence on the StochasticRSI. In addition, the relative volatility index has inverted, which suggested momentum is beginning to reverse. If the volume continues to flow in, the price is likely to re-test resistance at 8300. If the price is able to break through resistance, we should see our next test of resistance at 8500. The key levels of support and resistance to watch today are 7700 and 8000. A daily close above the support at 8000 should lead the price to form a three white soldiers pattern, which should carry us to the 8500 price point.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by SpektreSignal
Daily Market Analysis - BTCThe market has been ranging and is slightly up to $245.64B. Dominance has moved back up to 57.11%. The price of Bitcoin has remained locked between 7700-8000. Volatility has lowered and the trend is still strong indicating this consolidation could break out in the next 3-5 days once the ascending channel trendline is tested. The kijun has begun drifting upwards, which indicates a small increase in momentum. Volume has continued to descend and if it's unable to pick up, the price will be testing the downside.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by SpektreSignal
Daily Market Analysis - BTCThe market has drifted up to $245.34B. Dominance has shifted down further to 56.92%, and the price of Bitcoin has managed to find support between 7700 - 8000. Price action has almost invalidated the rising wedge pattern, which suggests the ascending channel will be the more valid pattern to play out. The RVI indicates consolidation of volatility meaning there has been a supply of buying pressure when the price falls to 7500. Although the stochastic has crossed over, there is not enough volume at the time to support a large move. A possible double bottom could form at this junction, which would lead the price action to follow the vector illustrated by the light blue trends. This means the price is likely to re-test support at 7700 with the possibility of testing 7300. At which point, the price would also be reaching a point that would either validate or invalidate the ascending channel. If the channel holds, the price would need to see a bullish move on 5/23.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by SpektreSignal
Daily Market Analysis - BTCThe market is down to $239.47B. Dominance is up to 57.34%. The price of Bitcoin is at 7800. The rising wedge pattern is still in tact, if valid, the price should be able to break through it's 8300 resistance and sharply increase to test resistance at 8800. However, if the wedge is proves to be invalid, the price next level of support to watch is 7300, and the topside resistance at 8300. Due to the lowering volatility and lowered momentum indicated by the stochastic RSI, the price should be able to continue it's support above 7300. Potential upcoming catalysts to watch for would include information regarding TD Ameritrades plans to open up Crypto trading through their platform. In addition, there should be a decision rendered on the pending Bitcoin ETF at the SEC. Although, I am more bearish on the ETF news and expect a denial while the SEC sites the same vague nonsensical metrics it has been able to use in the past to stave off actually making a concrete decision.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by SpektreSignal
Daily Market Analysis - BTCThe market had a sharp downturn yesterday, and the market cap is down to $224.62B. Dominance has remained low despite the sell off and is down further to 56.63%. The price of Bitcoin is above 7100. Yesterday, there was a market order put in at 6200 for 5000 Bitcoins, which means one of three things. A) Someone accidentally sold a large quantity with a market order lower than they expected and lost a lot of their own money. B) An attempt to manipulate price from an individual who was shorting the market with leveraged derivatives to free up their trade and avoid losses. Which still cost them. C) Someone with a large volume of Bitcoin was attempting to scare the market and cause a price action based on fear which would also force algo traders and bots to sell triggering cascading stop losses. If that was the case, the attempt failed and the person still lost a lot of money. The conclusion is that the sell off yesterday had no specific reason and whoever did it either broke even or lost a bunch of money doing so. Whales in crypto are often bad traders with too much capital and no skill. Such is the way of an immature market. As for the charts, the formation could be viewed as an ascending channel or a rising wedge. Price action is dependent on support and perceived market conditions. Volatility is reaching a historical support point, and the stochastic indicates there is room to come down further from here. Bias of market direction should not be formed based on technicals at this point, the most important factors at play are the psychological price levels. If support at 6700 cannot hold, the market will most likely turn bearish with price action following. On the other hand, if price action can break resistance at 7300 again, there should be some restored confidence in the market, which should help to elevate the price back to it's previous levels between 7500-8000.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by SpektreSignal