GILD: $69 | another Breakthrough for Humanity | Loaded!from Ebola treatment to quick remedy for Corona
truly a mission worth funding and risking on
Remdesivir
Major Wave Higher? Or down we go 🎩We maybe have finished movement inside this monthly downward channel, which looks like a corrective channel for previous bullish impulse. Chances are we will go north from here. But if price will brake this channel downwards it may as well become ugly, and there is no support levels, I guess?
Anyway, now GILD highly tightened to SNP and thus electional uncertainty.
Swing trade idea on Gilead SciencesI don't actually like Gilead Sciences for a long-term buy and hold, because its earnings have been in a long-term downtrend. There's a case to be made for a swing trade, however. Gilead is now sitting on trend line support in a fairly high-volume range. It's about 25% below its median forward P/E and forward P/S for the last three years. It has been selling off on news that remdesivir has shown no therapeutic value for Covid-19, but it may now rally for a while on news that the FDA has approved it for emergency use in moderate Covid patients anyway.
Remdesivir News is GOOD for Gilead - 4HR ChartHearing chatter down the grape vine about Remdesivir again, watch for the bounce back-up on GILD. This was just trading in the $80 dollar range so keep an eye out for that move on the news.
Gilead in tested channelGILD has seen positive price action YTD; due to combatting the COVID-19 with their drug Remdesivir.
Yesterday on the news, the trial on humans which was set in China to prove the effectivity of the drug, apparently "failed". However... The price just took us to the lower part of the channel , meaning the Risk-Reward-Ratio is at a good stance.
A close below the 50sma would change the sentiment, and remove us from the channel.
GILEAD Short Term Uptrend Trade PlanTrade Plan for Gilead Sciences.
Will look to enter at bottom of uptrend channel (75.3) , Stop Loss once uptrend broken (74).
Target Price at 86. Potential Price at 96. Personally will take profit at resistances as insurance.
Upside for Gilead:
1a) Possible treatment for Covid-19 (Remdesivir)
1b) Possible 2nd wave of virus
2) Possible FDA approval of Arthritis drug
Downside for Gilead:
1) Leaked report of Remdesivir failing in China randomized trial, which was cancelled early due to low enrollment numbers. Bears clinging on hopes that the conclusion was inaccurate due to short duration of study
SPX at the crossroad- Macro overview and economic indicatorsPlease click like and follow me if you like my post. Much appreciated!
SPX has been going on a W ride for a while and is currently only down around 15 percent from its mid Feb high, putting it in the midpoint of the correction and recession phase. If this trend continues on, it is safe to expect that SPX will more likely to challenge its mid Feb high than retest its March 23 low.
However, the current resistance lvl seems to have stalled its momentum somewhat as the weekly candle indicates an indecisive market sentiment.
It is worth to see if there is an accelerating net inflow into bond and equity fund and net outflow from liquid assets such as money market fund & saving deposits and total deposits at US commercial banks in the upcoming weeks. In order to sustain the rally, more investors need to to put their money back into the equity market.
Some encouraging news and signs are already happening-
*Stocks have vastly outperformed bonds by 11.92 percentage points during the last 20 trading days
*Call options far outnumbered put options
*VIX is steadily declining and briefly went below 40 few days ago.
*Remdesivir- Early result of severe clinical trial is encouraging. Few caveats- Still wait for the result of full clinical trial and more data from randomized controlled trial is needed. Also, the severe trial was conducted without the placebo group, meaning researchers don't not know what would have happened to these patients had they not been given the drug.
*Abbott recently announced new coronavirus antibody test that could do up to 20 million screenings in June. This antibody testing allows us to know if someone has been previously infected, if recovered from the infection provides the immunity and how long antibodies stay in the body.
*Exponential growth has slowed down a little bit the past few days, but the fatality rate is still climbing. Hospitalized # seems to have flattened the past few days even though the positive testing rate has gone up to nearly 20%. Overall, the growth rate has gone down to the average of single digit 7 % compared to the double digit growth rate few weeks ago. It is safe to assume that US is potentially transitioning from the stage of slowed down exponential growth to the stage of flattened curve.
On the other hands, all economic indicators and warning signs point to the rather bleak outlook-
*Vast majority of stocks is still below SMA200 and SMA50
*The number of stocks hitting 52-week lows exceeds that of hitting 52-week highs
*Retail sales tanked 8.7% in March, the largest decline since the government started tracking retail sales in 1992
*March CPI fell 0.4%, the largest monthly decline since Jan.2015
*Industrial production dropped 5.4% in March, largest drop since 1946
*The March PMI registered 49.1 percent, an 1 percentage drop from the February. The New Orders Index suffered a drastic decline of 7.6 percentage due to the export contraction, suggesting a weakening demand from customers.
*Initial claim is down from its peak while continuous claim continues to surge
*unemployment rate is projected to be as high as 20%
*Crude Oil declined 67.50% since the beginning of 2020
*The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) Builder confidence in the market for single-family homes plunged 42 points to 30 in April, the lowest point since June 2012
*Building permits in the United States fell 6.8 percent, the sharpest drop since July 2015
*Housing starts in the US plunged 22.3%, the biggest decline in housing starts since 1984
*Small business rescue loan program already hit the $349 billion limit
*Massive credit downgrade as corporate earning approaches and many corporate bonds fall to distress lvl
*Market-cap to GDP is still in the overvalued zone
In the midst of the Covid-19 crisis, central bank launched its latest program that allow foreign central banks to convert their Treasury securities into dollars in order to alleviate the USD shortage problem. This was a response to the ever-increasing liquidity crunch that is rarely seen in traditionally the most liquid market in the world. In recent days, treasury yields have not fallen like they usually do in the past during the event of massive sell-offs in equities. Other worrisome signs are the elimination of reserve requirement and the inclusion of previously excluded category of less-than-investment grade corporate bond to the Fed asset purchases. The result of these drastic measures is sure to ballon the Fed balance sheet, federal deficit and debt-GDP ratio in the near future, further compounding the U.S Debt dilemma.
Lastly, the potential danger of second wave infection in China cannot be overstated. The fragility of the global supply chain is already being exposed during the pandemic and the problem will be further exacerbated if the world's second largest economy fails to prevent the re-emergence of virus.
Overall, I am cautiously optimistic. There are many potential events and developments to pay attention to such as the serious supply chain bottleneck and essential worker shortage that could trigger the massive sell-off. Also, I am waiting to see how the market will react to the upcoming quarterly GDP, unemployment # and corporate earning.
Stay safe out there my friends!
Please do your own due diligence. Not the investment advice, just my personal take on the current situation.
Gilead Sciences Coronavirus experimental cure long opportunityBeen doing research on the progress of a coronavirus cure and severity of the outbreak. My intention was never to look for companies to invest in, I was genuinely curious about the state of the world. I came across an article (replace parenthesis with period): www() bloomberg()
com/news/articles/2020-02-01/coronavirus-case-treated-with-gilead-drug-may-spur-wider-tests
in which it is stated that the first case in the USA was treated with an experimental drug developed by gilead sciences. I encourage you to the read the article yourself and dyor. After taking a look at the chart, i couldn't help but notice that price seemed to be gearing up to go higher. Again, I encourage you to do your own analysis and not go based purely off of mine. I think this could be an amazing swing trade if played right and especially if the drug comes around to be approved.
Another article to do further research is a statement from gilead's website (replace parenthesis with period): www()gilead()
com/news-and-press/company-statements/gilead-sciences-statement-on-the-company-ongoing-response-to-the-2019-new-coronavirus
It mentions cooperation with china and an expedited plan to do clinical testing of the drug.
Best of luck and happy trading!
