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REMX

MP Materials: Falling Wedge With Bullish Divergence at a 0.886The Federal Reserve during the FOMC and in its SEP has hinted greatly towards deep rate cuts in 2024 because they see the CPI going down and no longer feel the need to tighten further, and are under the assumption that great progress has been made. I for one do not agree with this perspective and think rates need to go much higher before inflation can truly be subsided. Since the Fed is under what I view as a false assumption, I think we will now see Inflation and the CPI come back up even higher and faster than the first inflationary run up and that we will see this greatly reflected in Food, Energy, and Shipping prices. Along with this, I think it will affect the pricing of Rare Earth Elements which should end up being a positive for the Assets on the balance sheet of producers such as MP Materials, VALE, and US Steel: X, along with the REMX ETF; as demand for ships and other means of shipment/transport increases. The increase in demand for these types of shipments should also drive demand for the materials the shipping vehicles are made of, which should drive the prices higher for both. I do not think Gold and Silver will join this inflationary rally due to the collapse of the Japanese Carry Trade, and I do not believe the Dollar will lose much value during this rally in inflationary materials except against the Yen. This dynamic should also limit the rally potential in the big stock indexes, I only really expect certain names to benefit from the kind of inflation we are dealing with. So in short, I think the Bulk Dry Index continues to rise, Shipping Cost Rise, Ships themselves Rise, Oil Rises, and Rare Earth Materials Rise and when that happens, I suspect the Fed will pivot hard back in the other direction and start raising rates again.
NYSE:MPLong
by RizeSenpai
2
REMX Rare Metals ETFOn the 4H chart the price is rising above support and the recent bottom. On the MACD indicator, the lines have risen above the zero line and over the positive histogram. The moving average "Williams Alligator" combination shows divergence with the short period MA rising the fastest. On the volume indicator, high solid relative volume occurred as the price reached support and has been more or less increased compared with the moving mean ever since. The volume profile showed the highest volume at the support level and price has now crossed above and out of the high volume area. Fundamentally, rare earth metals are a necessary component to lithium batteries for EVs and everything else. China has a large number of rare earth mines and can manipulate the global markets in these minerals. I see this as an investment play until there are signs the uptrend has ended. I will take call option of $81 for the the 5/19 expiration and close early if REMX makes reversal signals. In the gold rush of 1849, those who made the most money were the sellers of shovels and picks. I believe there are parallels here with regard to EVs, and lithium and rare metals may yield great profits and the same for EV charging stations and battery technology. Eton Musk is looking to buy a lithium mine and put a processing plant in Austin TX. Seems among other things, he is a bit visionary with regard to lithium and money. see also the link below
AMEX:REMXLong
by AwesomeAvani
MP Materials: Bearish Re-Entry of the 1.13 ExtensionThis first entry got stopped out and now MP Materials is higher, however it is now hitting the 1.13 retrace and may be setting up to come back down within the range if this is a false move like i expect it is. I will officially call the trade off it it trades above the level of $62 and my profit taking targets will be first $30 then $10. I will be trading this in the form of puts around the current price expiring several months out from now.
NYSE:MPShort
by RizeSenpai
Chinese Rare Earth Elements (REE) MinersBull Case on Chinese REE Miners: Increasing domestic pressure to restrict REE exports from China. China accounts for 60% of the world's mining of REE, China also accounts for over 80% of the world's REE refining. Refining is environmentally intensive & damaging. The US & Australia are building out domestic supply chains, but unless they are willing to fight their own environmental regulations to refine what is mined, it still has to be sent to China. Increasing global demand + restricted supply chains = higher prices = greater profits for Chinese REE miners / refiners (tracked in REMX). China is bolstering its domestic semiconductor industry due to the restrictions from the US & West, which also require REE; Chinese domestic demand for REE is going to increase to support a domestic semiconductor foundry sector. Cup & Handle pattern noted.
AMEX:REMXLong
by MichaelGoldberg
Upcoming bull market in rare earth mineral ETFThanks for viewing, I get a lot of satisfaction from identifying assets and asset classes that are under-valued. That means looking at some rather hopeless looking charts and looking for potential. Identifying under-valued assets e.g. commodities in chronic supply deficit is also a great way to both diversify a portfolio with uncorrelated (or negatively correlated) assets. "Rare earths, which are used in the high-strength magnets found in much of the latest tech, from smartphones to wind turbines to electric vehicles, will remain a primary issue for the resource sector well into the next decade as more countries in the west work to create supply chains that depend less on China (investingnews.com)." I will lay out my case for rare earths and you let me know what you think. For: - Bullish RSI divergence between Jan 2016 and March 2020 swing lows. Bullish RSI is when a lower low on the price chart is displayed as a higher low on the RSI. Not a bullet-proof indication, but a sign of weakening in the trend. I have identified some snorter-term bullish and bearish divergences in 2016, 2017, and 2019-20 that marked changes in the direction in price, - A significant draw-down (think retracement). Of course the over-all trend is down presently, and there is the possibility that it could go lower, but I see signs of a recovery. - Increasing volume. - A very bullish aspect is the recent move (+86% in <100 days) since March 2020 which was achieved with much lower than average volume. When the chart goes up on low volume it strongly suggests that sellers are exhausted. - Rare earth metals will be essential to a tech-driven / sustainable energy economy. I do mean essential, they allow jet engines to burn hotter, have greater reliability, and run more efficiently. The move to more efficient aircraft is a meta-trend that is only more important in present times - despite low travel demand (think aircraft retirements due to efficiency - the goal now is for airlines to lose the least money and more efficient aircraft. - China reduced production targets significantly in 2018 due to reducing rare earth reserves (global reserves once stood at 70% but have reduced to ~37% in 2018 www.prnewswire.com) - Trade war. - Whatever happens in the vote in November, the world is turning away from China. Factories are relocating, the possibility of both cold and hot wars are being discussed. But whatever happens, rare earth metals are "strategic metals." That means defence and industry in the US and elsewhere needs them to function almost regardless of commodity price. In 2019 the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) threatened retaliation against the US via halting or restricting the export of rare earth minerals to the US. - Both the US and China have threatened tariffs or restrictions on rare earth minerals, - There are signs that they are making good on this threat (although recent actions are not associated with a clear public CCP announcement about why exports are being limited from the CCP - they never are), - China rare earth exports account for 78% of US rare earth imports in 2017. The US is currently dependent on this stream of imports. Any substitution of supply is going to take a long time to eventuate. - Global trade is generally becoming "stickier" in terms of politics, transport, and travel. Against: - It is an ETF and I generally mistrust ETFs (e.g. SPDR GLD). While they can be useful, I will limit my ETFs to smaller positions. - It is an equity ETF, so it carries higher risk than other more stable investments. - The majority of Companies are from China. I am not a China expert, but I know enough to be concerned with the veracity and verifiability of their financial reporting, and maybe more importantly, there is a possibility that the CCP may annex some Companies or require them to do things that run counter to the organisations own best interests (i.e. restricting or blocking selling to some willing buyers). - Investing in China may not suit you depending on your position on moral investing e.g. Chinese human rights record, mining pollution, or that in China or mine worker death rate is 10x that of the US. - I expect a widespread draw-down in global equities due to a generalised deleveraging. So mining / refining equities will also be hit - possibly harder than average. - MACD weekly histogram is trending downwards and a MACD moving average cross-over to the downside is also possible. - I would put a short-term price at $28-34. - The underlying securities in the ETF have an aggregate PE ratio of 37, which is on the high side. - REMX has a 0.69 correlation with the SPX in the past 3 years, which is surprising given that the charts have been going quite different directions (0.7 and above is considered a strong correlation). If the time-frame was longer, say 5-10 years), the correlation would be lower. On the fence: - I will continue to buy on weakness and am looking for price to hold above $23.91 (i.e. make a higher low) for my bullish outlook to hold. If that low is not exceeded, I would call the bear market over. My outlook is rather bullish, but even if we get a 61% retracement (of 2011 highs), that would mean 500%+ gains from the $23.91 low. If I had to put odds on it, I would lean 70:30 towards bullish - maybe more - given the political situation. If someone should make an ETF with high quality rare earth equities that excluded Chinese companies I would increase that to 80:20 or more. I could write more, but I'm not sure anyone is here at the end :P Protect those funds
AMEX:REMXLong
by flyinkiwi10
11
#REMX - 100% safe? Rare Earth going up? #tradingviewThe Vaneck Rare Earth Metals ETF indicates an overall trend reversal in rare earths. The RSI - Relative Strength Index has not confirmed the lows of 2020 compared to the lows of 2016 and has built up a massive divergence on a monthly basis. In the course of the upward movement, the 2018 highs are likely to be surpassed, which from today's perspective would correspond to almost a doubling. Companies such as Defense Metals or Lynas are likely to react even more strongly than the ETF, and everyone should be aware of this, depending on their risk appetite.
AMEX:REMXLong
by StefanBode
2
REMX - DAILY CHARTThis ETF holds exposure to several companies that are involved in the process of producing refining and recycling of rare earth and strategic materials and minerals, that might get influenced by the latest news from China. China that controls about 90% of the market, and 70% of the global production of rare earths, said this month that it's raising its annual mining quota to 132,000 tons, representing a 10% rise in comparison with last year. This decision's poised to have a significant impact on the markets due to the relevance of rare-earth is one of the most relevant elements to the modern industry, essential to the production of a wide variety of products. To have an idea, let's have a quick look at their uses on the industry: Neodymium - Used to make powerful magnets that can be use on the many products from computer hard drives to motors for electric cars Lanthanum - Used to make audiovisual components like camera lenses and other elements that work with light on the industry like cinema projection and illumination. Gadolinium - Used on the fabrication of Television screens in the medical industry by been utilized in MRI and X-ray scanning systems. Cerium - Used in the manufacture for cigarette lighters, as the Lanthanum it's used on the cinema industry, this element it’s also used by the crude refinery in its refining process. Praseodymium - Essential to producing aircraft engines and along with magnesium, can create high-strength metals named Mischmetal. Yttrium - Used in white LED lights, lasers that can cut through metals, also it's used in making of microwave filters for radars, and it's used to a catalyst in ethene polymerization. Terbium - Used in mercury lamps and to improve the safety of medical x-rays and used in laser devices. Europium - Used in printing euro banknotes, low-energy light bulbs to give natural light, also it's excellent at absorbing a neutron, valuable to control rods for nuclear reactors. With this scenario in mind, we can weight that companies and other types of assets, that have a high level of dependence on this material could have relief on their profit margins during this year that China keeps this level of production. This relief might mitigate eventual headwinds that these assets may face and boost possible bullish sentiments. Thank you for reading and leave your comments if you like. To have access to our exclusive contents, join the Traders Heaven today! Link Below. Disclaimer: All content of Golden Dragon has only educational and informational purposes, and never should be used or take it as financial advice.
AMEX:REMX
by Igor-Silva
Long Term Buy Rare Earth MetalsThis trade is based on the rising tensions between China and US, China is out of its tariffs card and may resort to other retaliation options. At this time, rare earth metal production is dominated by china, and some of these metals are essential for electronics, magnets, etc... If china resorts to restrict the export of these metals then REMX ETF (a basket of rare earth metal shares, 30% chinese and ~25% AUssie, etc...) will shoot, as it did in 2011 when china played on this card against Japan. AM unsure about levels of support and targets, but it is recommended to buy this ETF for long term. Another recommendation is to look for Neodymium metal specifically, as its demand will rise with electric cars and its use in its engines' magnets, e.g.: Nolans mine project etc... (ARU ASX)
AMEX:REMXLong
by ahmedse