Get started

Renminbi

USDCNH 11th JULY 2022Apart from the very aggressive increase in interest rates by the US central bank (The Fed), the recession issue has also made the US dollar a safe-haven choice. The Fed until last June has raised interest rates 3 times with a total of 150 basis points to 1.5% - 1.75%. This month, the world's most powerful central bank will again increase by 50 - 75 basis points, and by the end of the year interest rates are projected to be in the range of 3.25% - 3.5%. This certainly supports the strengthening of the US dollar. USD is predicted to continue to strengthen for at least the next 3 months.
Long
by DNP-FX
2
USDCNY 31st MAY 2022Asian shares erased early losses in Tuesday afternoon trade, as signs that China's economic pain may be gradually easing amid the easing of COVID-19 restrictions overshadowed broader investor concerns about a global inflation shock. Also lifting sentiment in the Asian region were details of Beijing's new policy support, which includes cash grants to hire fresh graduates and support for internet companies that list overseas. China's official PMI for May showed factory activity continued to decline but at a slower pace than in April. USDCNH APRIL 2022 USDCNH MARCH 2022
Long
by DNP-FX
US Dollar Pressuring Yuan as USD/CNH Breaks Year-Long TrendlineThe US Dollar is making a move against the Chinese Yuan after months of consolidation. USD/CNH took out a year-long falling trendline, as well as the 6.3941 - 6.4107 resistance zone. This marks the highest close since October. Further upside confirmation could perhaps hint at a turning point for the almost 2-year long downtrend. A bullish crossover between the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) remains in play. These lines could come into play in the event prices turn lower, holding as key support. The breakout has exposed the September high at 6.4880. Negative RSI divergence does show that upside momentum is fading, so keep an eye on the trendline. The latter could hold as new support in the event of a turn lower. FX_IDC:USDCNH
Long
by QM_Dubrovsky
USDCNH 17th MARCH 202213 Chinese cities have been in total lockdown since Tuesday, and several others have been in partial lockdown. The Chinese government reported that there were around 15,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 nationwide in March. Chinese health officials have urged people over 60 to get vaccinated - including a third booster ASAP. Technically we can see the limits of support and resistance trendline. it will be a bullish spike when the resistance line breaks. this is my trading plan for USDCNH, are you also waiting for a breakout on this pair?
Long
by DNP-FX
ridethepig | CNY Market Commentary 2020.02.16On the technicals there is little to update while the resistance holds, despite the bounce via PBOC intervention on coronavirus risk flows. The only level in play to the topside is 7.0248 as it caps the highs in the current wave. Anything above will unlock a leg towards the next barrier at 7.0733. The coronavirus short-circuit sadly temporarily disrupted the USD devaluation / reflationary growth theme. I am still holding shorts and active looking for a test of the 6.825x. Anything below that will open the floodgates for the major break: As usual thanks for keeping support coming with the likes and comments, we'll open up the short-term flow after the Tokyo open in the comments below for those trading live!
Short
by ridethepig
RENMINBI AS A TRADE WAR PROXY & DOLLAR SHORTAGE(for macro nerds)USD/CNY: Two detailed bullet points ; Series on Currencies(feedback's always welcomed) - 7th of December 2019 First of all, this chart is simply a guide on how to analyse Dollar:Renminbi as a trade war proxy. As there are many economic variations and possible outcomes for 2020 at this point in time, I will not give recommendations for this chart. These are my subjective technicals and I will not analyse them, so don't follow them blindly. More importantly, let's take a look at some of the macro and fundamental perspectives. 1. 7 is a key level for the USD/CNY. Somehow the cross in August coincided with the inversion in yield curves, and the height of the trade war fears. Data backing up the cross at 7 is the decrease in Chinese holdings of treasuries (Ref #1), YoY down -4.27% . This indicates, that China is attempting to create a stronger dollar environment that corresponds with higher treasury yields, in order to alleviate some of the trade war tariff pains(higher yields=stronger $ ). Of course, treasuries are a global market, and China isn't able to completely influence the dollar At the stage with all the noise, it's very hard to exactly know what the trade war outcome will be, so I've given some of the scenarios on the chart. Furthermore, as FED cut rates, so did the PBoC (despite higher CPI , pork's here to blame) . This was their way of signalling that they're ready to devalue the yuan in case the trade war continues (Ref #2). The simplest way to read the Dollar/Yuan chart is with a dummy variable approach: If USDCNY<7= higher probability of a trade deal success and vice versa. 2. The DXY and USDSEK overlays combined with the 5-year lows in some of the emerging markets currencies(REF #5), indicating a global dollar shortage . These fears were somewhat dealt with as we had (Ref #3) three rate cuts this year and the start of QE:4, after the the repo market frenzy in August and September . Going into 2020, despite the FED being overly optimistic, I'm expecting that rates will further slide down to at least 1%. It all depends on how ambitious Trump is in terms of his trade war goals. The importance of USDSEK , simply is the fact that Sweden is such an open economy and the effect of these events mentioned above can serve as a way to cut all the trade news noise. A s expressed in the USDSEK chart, currently Swedish manufacturing numbers are well below 50, without the expected bounce for November(REF #6), despite the strong performance from equities . Along with other swedish economic data that's also performing poorly, without a doubt, this raises recession fears even further. To conclude this analysis on the Dollar:Renminbi, as mentioned in the intro- at this point there are many possible variations and many factors that could be analysed. I've already written a dozen posts on the trade war and the 2020 elections and it seems that it's impossible to give an easy and simple answer. One thing to expect for certain in 2020, is a rise in volatility . As the election cycle nears, there might be an increased pressure on Trump to get a deal done, so hopefully we'll get a more clear picture of the outcome of the trade war. Nevertheless, phase 1 is somewhat unimportant. Practically all the important negotiation points are pushed for phase 2 . Future may after all, seem interesting, but at the same time gloomy, and the show's just about to get started. This is it for Dollar:Yuan, feedback is always welcomed! -Step_ahead_ofthemarket- ________________________________________________________________________________________ >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated ! References & Disclosure: 1. Chinese Treasury holdings: ticdata.treasury.gov 2. PBoC Prime rates: tradingeconomics.com 3. FED Rates super cycle: 4. Treasury Yields: 5. Latin(emerging) markets currency index: www.bloomberg.com 6. Swedish Manufacturing data: tradingeconomics.com Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content- contact me through any of my social media channels.
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
Major Reversal In Play For CNY - A Must Track!!A good time to update the CNY chart with US away from their desks for thanksgiving. Both sides rolling back tariffs means that CNY has unlocked the gates for a retrace towards the key 76.4%. On the monetary side, updates from PBOC who continue sitting on the bid and are unlikely to change stance and keep CNY strong against the crosses, and as long as this remains the case the highs will be capped. Risks to my thesis come from another escalation in protectionism. For Chinese Equities the important and key 2793 is back in play again: Those following previously will remember trading the breakout to the topside, which is now clear was the final exhaustion leg. A textbook one to track for those wanting to dig deeper: For the technicals we are tracking a similar leg in nature to the sell-off in 2017, initial looking to target 6.9xx with extensions as low as 6.6xx and 6.4xx. While to the topside invalidation will come via a break of the highs. Best of luck all those on the CNY bid, jump into the comments with any questions and your views on CNY!
Short
by ridethepig
Pause in trade war shifts market focus on another dataA temporary truce in the trade war was announced. Well, of course, a “truce” is not the right word we prefer a “pause”. The appreciation of the renminbi, as well as the decline in the VIX Index, are further evidence of tensions easing in the financial markets. Against this background, we again pay attention to the sale of gold. But we note that sales with the random points may turn out to be unprofitable, so we select the entry points carefully, taking into account at least an hour overbought and along daily maximum. Recall that the dollar is still very strong, which is bothers Trump. And in itself, it is an opportunity for its sales in the foreign exchange market. But the markets are more interested in the Fed’s further actions - will the Central Bank cut the rate again&? What could spur the Fed on easing monetary policy? First of all, weak macroeconomic data. So today's retail sales data may well give rise to dollar sales. Retail sales report is a monthly measurement of the retail industry. Monthly retail sales data is a chain indicator. That is, The report shows the total sales for the prior month. This specificity leads to the fact that chain indicators tend to fluctuate around the zero and after a strong growth period a decline period follows, and vice versa. So, over the last two months, US retail sales have been growing. To show better results this time too, the indicator must rise quite significantly concerning the three months periods. The US economy has been weak recently, there is a reason to expect weak data on retail sales. Since markets react not to the essence, but to the gossips, the outcome of the indicator in the negative zone (although this may be an increase relative the period of two months ) can trigger dollar sales. In this regard, today we will sell the dollar. First of all, against the pound. Eurozone GDP grew by 0.2 %, however, industrial production decreased, and quite significantly (-1.6% m / m), which is the worst result over the last 3 years. China also showed weak industrial production data: plus 4.8% expected plus 5.8% (the minimum growth rate since 2002). Retail sales in Sino are also worse than expected.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Trade24Fx
Can you afford to ignore the Renminbi rally? NO!What happened last time...: Clearly, we hit a very strong support... What's this? It's a Bird...It's a Plane... NO! It's the Chinese Renminbi making a double bottom on the monthly chart! And a higher LOW! WOW! The US are turning socialist and the FED have DESTROYED the us dollar. It is getting abandonned. China is becoming a TITAN and the Yuan is a new PARADIGM! The new worldwide monetary system. Those that do not buy a whole lot of little yuans now or soon will regret it for the rest of their lives.
Long
by MrRenev
2
USDCNY. Filling the Mega Gap. Wave 5One of market wizards once told that to find the trend we should squeeze the chart. Frankly speaking I thought USDCNY is in a correction before I squeezed the chart, the Monthly chart. The pair had a Mega GAP in 1994. It looks like we have an echo from that distant time in form of a downside impulse, which is filling the gap. We could be in the last large wave down to hit the 5.8145 mark. This idea is opposite to the primary market opinion of imminent devaluation of yuan.
Short
by aibek
5