Post-Pandemic reopening : It's a retail showtime!The vaccination campaigns are raising all over the world, but US is doing an incredible job to get this done very efficiently.
I am positive that the retails will spike in the next cycle due to the needs of the people to get back to in-person shopping experiences that are missed for more than a year at this point.
Dillard's performance showings clearly the first signals of this rebound.
DDS is breaking a super old resistance establish back in 2015, and the power of the break it's a clear signal that investors want to take the risk and jump on the long run.
Personally, I will wait for a retest of the resistance and confirm that will be a support to open my long position.
Reopening
Volatility Asset - AMCIdea for AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc:
- AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, involved in the theatrical exhibition business. The company owns, operates, or has interests in theatres. As of March 12, 2021, it operated approximately 1000 theatres and 10,700 screens in the United States and internationally. The company was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Leawood, Kansas. - Yahoo
- Strong economic data and re-opening hopes in the market.
- Possible breakout for AMC.
GLHF,
DPT
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Is Netflix at Risk of a Breakdown?Netflix was obviously a big beneficiary of last year’s pandemic. It was one of the first to break out (mid-April) and one of the first to peak (early July). Now it may be at risk of breaking down and having a deeper pullback.
The first and most important thing on this chart is the bearish gap after the last earnings report. Profit and revenue beat as management raised prices. That kind of tinkering might work for a consumer-staple company or an industrial, but a growth stock needs to grow . And that’s where NFLX came up short, with subscribers up barely half the expected amount.
NFLX has not only failed to bounce after that gap. It’s also consolidated below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), not once closing above it.
The current area also corresponds to an upward-sloping trendline that began in late June. Additionally, it’s near the “nice, round number” of $500.
Amazon.com and Apple are staggering as well, despite good results. Meanwhile, energy, materials, financials and industrials are pushing higher. It appears money is rotating away from Growth / FANG once again now that earnings have passed. With the economy reopening, that could be another risk for NFLX.
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Extended Wedge Bullish Bearish Neutral?It's a very wide wedge right now so lots of room to fluctuate. Will the reopening trade momentum act as a catalyst for another rebound or will NAT just chill here forever?
In its Q4 and full-year 2020 update, The company said that “We see strong oil demand, in particular from Asia for 2021…The lock-downs around the world has led to pent-up demand for many goods and services that will flourish once the vaccination program gains momentum this year…The demand will, unlike wars and financial crisis, be met by an unharmed physical and financial infrastructure that is ready to deliver on all cylinders.”
Quote Source: 5 Penny Stocks For Your March 2021 Reopening Watch List
Approaching a High Traffic Area on The ChartThe CHS stock chart is at a level where we saw some high traffic a while back. This has previously been a level of support, now apparent resistance. But can the reopening momentum act as an afterburner for the penny stock?
Chico’s FAS is another apparel retailer owning popular niche brands like Chico’s, White House Black Market, and Soma Intimates. It, too, has taken up a larger focus on digital sales. In its latest quarterly filing, Soma, for instance, saw its highest sales in the history of the brand. Comparable sales were also up over 15%, and it was driven by an uptick (over 68%) in digital sales. What’s more, total company Q4 and year-to-date digital sales increased almost 20%, according to Chico’s.
Quote Source: 5 Penny Stocks For Your March 2021 Reopening Watch List
Uber Pulls Back. Is it the Next Facebook?Uber Technologies quietly hit a new all-time high on February 11. Now it's pulled back and may be offering some opportunities for the bulls to hail a ride.
First, notice the trend line starting at the low of November 4, as stocks began their election-week rally. UBER jumped two sessions later after announcing results. It continued higher until late January, when it pulled back along with the rest of the market. That low created a trend line, to which prices are now returning.
Next, stochastics have dipped into oversold territory.
Finally, the last four months of consolidation and price action have occurred above the previous highs from 2019 and 2020. In this way, UBER resembles Facebook in 2012 and 2013.
The comparison might be apt because both companies went public with key weaknesses. In case you forgot, FB struggled with mobile ads for several quarters. Mark Zuckerberg fixed that problem mid-2013, resulting in a breakout above its initial price range.
Like FB, UBER spent its 12-18 months in a penalty box as investors balked at its convoluted business model. But CEO Dara Khosrowshahi has divested non-core business and mapped a route to consistent profits last quarter.
Overall, UBER has been through a lot: management turmoil, profitability issues and coronavirus. Now things may finally be coming together for the transportation disruptor to really go places.
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Coffee, Global Agriculture Inflation BoomNotice the major multi-year higher low formed in 2019, followed by the rounding basing pattern and subsequent breakout outside of the multi-year triangle.
The higher low in 2019, before the Covid deflation crash, tells me the agriculture complex was already bottoming ahead of Covid and now has a full head of steam.
Corn, Soybeans, Sugar, Fertilizer have all been ripping to the upside like mad.
Way to play coffee is through the ETF NIB
Not investment advice. DYODD
Are You Positioned for Quad 2? I hope you're readyWe're already in the midst of record runs in the equity and commodity markets but as bubbly as it seems, its not over.
We are in an environment that not many people are familiar with. The last time Growth and Inflation on a global scale were accelerating as fast as they are now was immediately after World War 2. Previous commodity cycles were sparked by 1 or 2 catalysts. The current macro setup has nearly the most accommodative and bullish catalysts for global growth and inflation that we could imagine. Fed on autopilot, Fiscal out the wazoo, supply chain disruptions and shortages everywhere, all major political interests want a weaker dollar.
Given that is the case and YoY GDP will probably show about +10% and CPI +3% in the 2nd Quarter, there's a good chance this current run, especially for commodities, could continue for a couple more months before a major correction.
Things I have been and remain bullish on: Potash, Sugar, Wheat, Soybeans, Corn, Cocoa, Coffee, Orange Juice, Copper, Uranium, Crude Oil, Natural Gas.
I've added to my exposure recently Aluminum, Nickel, and Coal.
Is Boeing Taxiing for Takeoff?It’s been a long two years for Boeing, but now the chart may be signaling a turn.
The aircraft maker began its descent in March 2019, when fatal crashes forced the grounding of its workhorse 737 Max plane. BA continued facing headlines that year, followed by a nosedive when the pandemic hit.
The stock remains well below its peaks and is still one of the worst-performing industrials in the last 12 months. However, it’s worth a look given the strength in other reopening plays like energy and financials.
The first potentially positive chart pattern is the “Golden Cross” of the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) above the 200-day SMA on December 1.
Next is the price zone around $190-194.50. BA struggled at that area between late June and early November. Prices broke above it in mid-November. Then came the crucial retest in late January when buyers defended the stock at that line – despite a poor earnings report.
Finally, BA has spent the last two weeks building support above its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA). Meanwhile, it’s just now fighting back above its 50-day SMA. Those two points suggest the trend is shifting from neutral to bullish.
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Can Las Vegas Sands Climb a Wall of Worry?Las Vegas Sands jumped on November 9 when news of Pfizer’s vaccine hit. It’s consolidated since, and is now showing some potential signs of continuing higher.
The first pattern on LVS is its gap above the previous high around $56. The shares have held their ground above those old highs, suggesting it’s found support above old resistance.
Next is the higher low in the last three sessions. That’s resulted in a basing pattern above the old resistance.
Third, you have yesterday’s bullish outside day.
Finally, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) recently rose through the 200-day SMA – a golden cross. (This chart also features our MA Speed custom script.)
LVS hasn’t shown much of a turn yet fundamentally, but there is a path toward improvement. First the U.S. vaccine. Then the potential for the Chinese New Year on February 12 to revive visits to Macau. Stocks in the position of LVS have the potential to “climb a wall of worry.” Some of the chart patterns cited here might suggest that the turn is coming.
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Can DS Finally Bust This Level?Looking at the Fibs, DS is once again testing this technical level. It's been a decently strong level of resistance for months. Only was able to break above it briefly but couldn't sustain itself for more than a few days. With the vaccine set for delivery in this week, it's going to be interesting to see how epicenter stocks perform. Will we finally get that bullish move in reopening stocks?
Last month, Drive Shack reported a very solid earnings report for the third quarter ending on September 30th. In the report, the company stated that it was able to bring in revenues north of $66 million. CEO of the company, Hana Khouri, stated in its last Q filing that “we are pleased with our third-quarter results as we see our venues and courses continue to build momentum over the year. Both of these businesses delivered positive financial results in the quarter, even with the challenges we continue to face with local restrictions and mandates with large group gatherings.”
QUOTE SOURCE: Penny Stocks To Buy Under $3 Right Now, Are They Worth The Risk?
JETS flagging on new channelTechnical Analysis
On november 24th, JETS broke out above its june highs, and consolidated (orange square), demonstrating a successful break out of the channel. Now it shows a flag, showing potential for more upside.
There is a strong resistance level at $27.7; at this point I would expect a pullback, to ultimately reach the top of the gap around $30.
I am using a stop under the 10sma to take partial profits.
Fundamental Analysis
The market is a forward looking mechanism, with the path of the recovery setting a potential comeback for Airlines for Spring; JETS is fundamentally undervalued right now.
COVID Tech vs. RoW Tech vs. Reopening StocksAfter the big drop Thursday, this is a quick 3-month performance review of some of the classic names that fit into each of these 3 groups
We can see that COVID tech (Tesla, Zoom, Plug Power) sold off, reopening trades (cruise lines, banks) rebounded and in the middle were some tech favourites that fared a little better (Alphabet, Twitter etc)
Doomsayers Beware: Potential Resistance on Bond PricesAs most people know, sentiment has been running uber-bearish. That’s lifted gold and depressed interest rates. But now the action in bond prices may be showing an end to the move.
The iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF tracks the prices of long-dated bonds. And they may have recently hit a peak around $172, near the same level where it was rejected in April.
There could be several implications if this potential double-top holds.
First, and most obviously, it would boost longer-term bond yields. That, in turn, would steepen the curve and could help banks and financials.
It could also lift some economic forecasts using bond yields as indicators.
That, in turn, could make it harder to own high-multiple “growth” stocks and keep money flowing toward cyclical “value” names like small caps, industrials and financials.
Higher rates could also support the U.S. dollar and make precious metals a little less precious.
The news flow today is consistent with this kind of shift:
1-TSA data shows air travel back to its highest levels since March.
2-China is moving to reopen visits to Macau.
3-Washington is inching toward a stimulus bill.
Boeing finally showing a trendTechnical analysis
Boeing showing support at the trend-line forming since the march lows.
A close below $152 is a break of the lower highs trend
Sentiment, technicals, and fundamental views for Boeing are weak. However:
risk-reward-ratio is very attractive
Still a global duopoly (Boeing and Airbus)
Heavy support from the government to help it succeed
tracking the Baltic Dry Index The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a shipping and trade index created by the London-based Baltic Exchange. It measures changes in the cost of transporting various raw materials, such as coal and steel. It is reported around the world as a proxy for dry bulk shipping stocks as well as a general shipping market bellwether.
BDRY is an ETF that trades on the Baltic Capesize Time Charter-Base Ticker for each sequential month.
To check out a chart of the Baltic Dry Index, I suggest using StockCharts.com to look up $BDI .