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BHP, Rio Tinto (commodities): Highly exposed to the prices of miBHP, Rio Tinto (commodities): Highly exposed to the prices of minerals and metals (iron, copper, coal). Their performance is closely tied to global demand, particularly in China. Rewards Trading at 25.3% below estimate of its fair value Earnings grew by 25.5% over the past year Trading at good value compared to peers and industry Analysts in good agreement that stock price will rise by 20.6% Risk Analysis Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.06% per year for the next 3 years Dividend of 6.75% is not well covered by free cash flows
NYSE:RIOLong
by Maximus20000
USOIL SHORT The price may rise to $82 but could also fall to about $70. 101.9 million barrels of oil will be consumed worldwide per day. By next year, the oil markets appear to be oversupplied. Highlights Lower Russian output and more demand brought on by China's reopening could help oil prices. Low demand and a bleak macroeconomic outlook for China When the Energy Information Administration releases its inventory figures on Wednesday, more oil-related information will be available. - --------------- **First Scenario - Long:** Initial Target: $80.90 Entry: $79.08 Stoploss: $77.47 **Second Scenario - Short:** Initial Target: $74 Entry: $78.34 Stoploss: $79.2 - --------------- After a long wait, I am currently waiting for this pair to give me my confirmation for a Short position (Data) - --------------- Take into consideration: It appears that the market has settled in a range of $79.44 to $76.86, with the 7.68 retracement level above the latter being significant. - --------------- NFA DYOR - --------------- Good Luck! ⚠️Caution: Just because I've set my buy and sell position Settings or drawn direction lines on my chart doesn't indicate I've opened a position or am obsessed with a particular bias. This is only a forecast; I don't trade when the price reaches my level; I have rules of engagement. Perhaps the most crucial element is 🆘RISK MANAGEMENT🆘.
TVC:USOILShort
by irfanp056
1
Merafe Dividend messed up analysis to the upside of R2.00What a difference a dividend makes! The payment went out on the 15 April 2024, and because there are derivatives that traders can trade off - the algorithm droped the share price quite significantly. I don't think this company should be providing such high dividends if it wants growth in the share price, but hey I'm just the guy behind a computer. So last time, we saw a Dividend release in September, it took 6 months for the share price to make it's way up and close the gap. Now it is likely for the same thing to happen. This is not a technical analysts haven type market because fundamentals trump the price action. But overall, I guess shareholders are remotely happy for their income distribution and in the long run Merafe will one day hit R2.00 :D
JSE:MRFLong
by Timonrosso
UPDATE: Thungela continues it's land slide since the H&S break Unfortunately, the price did break below the H&S and Thungela showed a ton of supply and selling coming in. This means, the target is still set to R91.93. The support at R121.50 was the last hope for the share to hold and bounce. But now it's clear that this resource miner is in trouble. Now let's cover the fundamentals. Coal Prices Affecting Profit: Thungela's profit dropped significantly due to weak coal prices. In a recent half-year report, their profit fell by 69%​​. Earnings Forecast to Decline: Analysts predict Thungela's earnings will decrease by an average of 64.3% per year over the next three years​​. Dividend Instability: The company's track record with dividends isn't very stable, which can unsettle investors​​. Stock Performance: Over the past year, Thungela's stock price decreased by 44.73%. In the last three months, it dropped by 27.43%, and in the last month, it fell by 15.66%​​. Price Volatility: Thungela's stock has shown high volatility, with an average weekly movement of 5.5%, which is higher than the industry average​​.
JSE:TGAShort
by Timonrosso
UPDATE Thungela continues its downside to R88.70 with a new H&SLarge H&S formed since since May 2022. The price broke below the neckline and since then it's been on a one way trajectory. That was until it reached R123.96 in May 2023... THe price since then has consolidated in a sideways manner and has formed yet another Head and Shoulders. With the price breaking below its neckline, we are seeing further signs of downside to come. And the target remains EXACTLY at R88.70. ABOUT THE COMPANY: Company Background: Thungela Resources Limited is a South African coal mining company. Spin-Off from Anglo American: Thungela was spun off from Anglo American Plc, a global mining company, in June 2021. Thungela primarily focuses on coal mining operations. The company's main products are related to coal production, including different grades of coal that are used for various purposes such as energy generation, industrial processes, and export.
JSE:TGAShort
by Timonrosso
UPDATE: Barloworld M Formations! Not one but TWO for the down! In May 2023, I wrote to you saying I epxect Barloworld to drop. ANd if you had the patience and just invested in this short, would be paying nicely by now. Not only because the price is down but also with the time held you could have made some interest income from the short. Anyway, there is nothing more confirming than when you have a Bearish formation like the M Formation and then you have ANOTHER Double Top. ANd since the price broke below the neckline, it's been carnage for Barloworld. The target remains at R64.17. And if it breaks below, I'll write another trading analysis...
JSE:BAWShort
by Timonrosso
1
#STXRES #JSE - Resources bouncing off Long term levelsResource are very likely the place to be over the medium term. Satrix Resources which is a basket of the biggest resource stocks on the JSE is bouncing off a massive level of previous long term support which has now become support (Change of Polarity). This is a great area to accumulate for the long term in my opinion. Will be happy to review after a few months but for now 3x hold of support shows the bulls mean business. Constituents below: ibb.co
JSE:STXRESLong
by MarcoOlevano
Exxaro showing a stronger buy signal to R226.76Initially, I wrote that we could expect a break to the downside where there'll be a better entry for a short. But the entry price never struck and the price turned up intot he channel. Price is now breaking above the down channel, indicating a chosen direction - Up. Other signs show some upside 7>21 RSI>50 - Bullish Target R226.76 WARNING I'm not too convinced yet and will need a stronger breakout and maybe even for the price to move up, test the support then bounce giving a conservative entry. Then we are talking.
JSE:EXXLong
by Timonrosso
Glencore showing strong W and ready to break up and out to R136Glencore showing a potential W Formation. We need the price to break above the neckline before we get further traction up. Other indicators show strong upside to come including... 7>21 - Bullish price >200 - Bullish RSI>50 HIgher lows. Target 1 for the resource company is at R136.20 ABOUT THE COMPANY Founding: Glencore was founded in 1974 by Marc Rich, a controversial financier and commodities trader. Name Origin: The name Glencore was derived from the words "Global Energy Commodities Resources". It was chosen when the company was taken public in 1994 after Marc Rich sold his stake. Commodities Trading: Glencore is one of the world's largest globally diversified natural resource companies. It's a major player in the production and marketing of over 60 commodities. Glencore operates in over 35 countries and employs approximately 145,000 people. Initial Public Offering (IPO): Glencore went public in 2011 on both the London and Hong Kong Stock Exchanges. IN 2013, it listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) under the ticker "GLN". Xstrata Merger: In 2013, Glencore completed a merger with Xstrata, a major global mining company, in a deal worth approximately $30 billion.
JSE:GLNLong
by Timonrosso
Anglo Plat showing strong upside with inv C7&H to R1,500Inverse C&H has formed on AMS over the last month and a bit. This has been the consolidation range as the downtrend seems to be coming to an end. We are seeing signs that the price is nearly ready to break up and out of the pattern. 7>21 Price<200 - But the price need to go back up as it acts as an elastic. RSI >50 Target R1,500 SMC Sell Side LIquidity Order block has formed below the handle of the cup Smart Money buys into positions (and sweeps liquidity) from traders who are long (get stopped) and for short traders who enter into their trades. Bullish Bias
JSE:AMSLong
by Timonrosso
Jubilee ready to crash further to R1.20 with this H&S - SMC After a horrific crash from R4.22 down to R1.73. There seems to be a consolidation range at the moment forming the next Head and Shoulders. The right shoulder is not fully ripe yet, so we can expect a blip of upside to form the RS. Once the price breaks below, then we'll see the next leg down. Indicators are confirming downside to come inc. 200>21>7 - Bearish RSI<50 Lower highs Once the price breaks below the Neckline we can expect the first target at R1.20 SMC Above the LS is clearly Buy Side Liquidity. Smart Money SELLS into positions (and sweeps liquidity) from retail traders who are short (get stopped) and for long traders who buy and enter their trades. About the company The company's primary operations are in South Africa and Zambia. Jubilee Metals Group specialises in the recovery of valuable metals that have been discarded in waste materials from previous mining activities. As part of their operations, they deal with metals such as platinum, palladium, rhodium, ruthenium, iridium, gold, copper, nickel, and zinc. The company uses proprietary technology and processes to extract these valuable materials. The company was initially named "Jubilee Platinum" because of its focus on platinum extraction. The name was later changed to "Jubilee Metals Group" when the company diversified its operations beyond just platinum.
JSE:JBLShort
by Timonrosso
LESSON of the day: Wait for Strong and Confirmed BreakoutsMany people like to predict breakouts. If there is one thing you learn today it's this. Always WAIT for a strong and confirmed breakout. There is a reason why the price hasn't breached the neckline (resistance). And that's because the fight is still on between the bulls and the bears. Now that Glencore has broken down not only has it slanted the Cup and Handle pattern but also. 1. There is a Break- away gap - Bearish. 2. The price is below 200MA - Bearish 3. 7=21MA and looks to cross down. Sure the price can turn up and close the gap, but the risk is too high! So follow your strategy and wait for a confirmed breakout. These lessons are important to learn before they become costly.
JSE:GLN
by Timonrosso