Retail
Macys an american institution is in a fight for it's life....if it takes out that neckline.
"Macy's founded in 1858.
It is the largest department store company by retail sales in the United States as of 2015.
Macy's operates with over 700 stores in the United States. Its flagship store is located at Herald Square in the New York City borough of Manhattan.
The company had 130,000 employees and earned annual revenue of $24.8 billion as of 2017. ". - wikpedia
#M
Catalyst of the Bull Rally: "Retail"Understanding the Past
When we examine the number of retail Bitcoin investors, we see that it stood at 43 million in January 2023. From that point onward, the number of individual investors increased steadily over 12 months, rising by 22% to reach 52.4 million, prior to the acceptance of Spot ETFs. Following the approval of Spot ETFs, this figure saw a slight decline, reaching 51.6 million by the end of February 2024.
However, the "ETF Bull" rally, led by the momentum of Spot ETFs, pushed the retail investor count upward, peaking in June 2024 at 54.14 million. After this peak, a downward trend in retail investor numbers began.
The Impact of Retail Investors on Price
Historical data reveals a close relationship between the growth in the number of retail investors and Bitcoin’s price movement.
Returning to January 2023, we observe that as the retail investor count rose significantly, Bitcoin’s price surged by over 300% in the same period. However, after reaching its peak in June 2024, the retail investor count plateaued, and Bitcoin’s price also struggled to reach new highs thereafter.
Conclusion
The rise in the number of retail investors remains a crucial catalyst for Bitcoin bulls. If this trend sees a strong resurgence, with retail investor interest growing substantially once again, Bitcoin's price could be poised to test new highs. Just as in the past, retail interest could provide the needed tailwind for Bitcoin; hence, renewed growth in the retail investor base may offer a vital opportunity for the next bull rally.
Thanks for reading.
LULU, a stock to watch!Lululemon stock (LULU) has traded down into the $230's for the first time since the COVID-19 Crash of 2020. I believe that LULU is a stock to keep your eye on, for a few reasons.
- The stock is trading at a 20x p/e whereas its historical p/e is in the mid 40's.
- Margins for the company have all been steady, and remain an industry leader.
- Lululemon is still set to see 10% CAGR for EPS in the next 5 years. (consensus)
- The stock is seeing a severe correction, on par with its past decade corrections.
Above is bullish sentiment on LULU, and can be considered the "bull/base case"
Personally, I have not turned bullish on LULU yet, but with the levels it is reaching it has most certainly caught my eye and has been added to my watch list. While the stock is seeing oversold levels, I think the midterm outlook can still remain bearish for Lululemon. Below are reasons why the short/midterm outlook for LULU may not be optimal.
- Weaker forward projections compared to last 5 years.
Though LULU is expecting 10% CAGR EPS for the next 5 years, that is just a fraction of its last 5 year CAGR of 38.55%. While projections are still positive, they have certainly dampened compared to recent years' growth.
- Macroeconomic environment.
Though the economy remains hot/fine for now, there have been warning signs flashing of a rising unemployment figure across the country. With suboptimal economic conditions, the average consumer may cut down on expensive Lululemon clothing.
These Macro conditions may also continue to dampen the economy, which can cause an overall market correction, where LULU would likely follow the sentiment.
Overall, I believe that LULU offers significant reward, but the shorter term horizon is still worrisome for Lululemon and the global economy. Lululemon is a leader in the Retail Trade sector and dominates when it comes to profitability. The stock is definitely one to keep an eye on if it continues to get crushed.
Regarding technicals, I am watching this demand zone around the 200 level. The stock could trend down to this area, and reach close to COVID-19 lows if sentiment does not change. This area could also offer significant R/R for an entry point.
Disclosure: I currently hold no position in LULU stock, and have never been a shareholder.
General Chart Work SessionI am recording these sessions to show the work I do on charts in general. I am gracious to my mentor @timwest for showing me this style of stock analysis! I am not perfect at it, but I review charts quite often to look at different potential developments and create/test ideas using this method. Of course, you will see other tools I enjoy using on my charts as well.
In this video I am reviewing the following: NYSE:HD , NASDAQ:PTON , NYSE:NCLH , and, briefly, $BBW. All of these I consider to be in general uptrends and personally have a bias to the long side. Of course, anything can happen in the markets, so only time will tell how these ideas continue to play out.
Hope you enjoy, and best of luck out there!
Euro lower as US inflation dips slightlyThe euro is lower on Thursday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0908, down 0.28%.
The German economy has been struggling but there was positive news as German retail sales rose 1.6% in August and 1.5% in July, after declines of 1.1% in June and 1.4% in May. The four monthly releases were all published today due to a technical problem in June.
US inflation for September was within expectations and the market reaction has been muted. Headline CPI continued its downswing and rose 2.4% y/y, down from 2.5% in August but above the market estimate of 2.3%. The decline in inflation was driven by a decrease in energy prices, particularly gasoline. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.2% in September, unchanged from August but above the market estimate of 0.1%.
Core CPI remains a bit high and came in at 3.3% y/y, above the August reading of 3.2% and the market estimate of 3.2%. Still, the Fed has demonstrated that it is willing to slash rates by 50 basis points despite inflation running above the 2% target. Today’s inflation data hasn’t changed market expectations for the November meeting, which remain at around 85% for a cut of 25 basis points.
The Fed minutes reflected optimism about the US economy, a signal that more rate cuts are in the pipeline. There was only one dissenting vote against the 50-bps cut in September, but the minutes indicated that some dovish members voted with the majority although they would have preferred a modest 25 bps cut. Jerome Powell may not have the same support for another jumbo cut if the labor market remains solid. That could mean cuts of 25 bps at the November and December meetings.
EUR/USD has pushed below support at 1.0920 and is testing support at 1.0901. Below, there is support at 1.0865
1.0956 and 1.0975 are the next resistance lines
A2Z Cust2Mate Solutions Announces New Funding InitiativeA2Z Cust2Mate Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ: AZ) , a retail technology leader, announced a successful capital raise through a direct stock offering. The company agreed to sell over 5.4 million common shares to accredited investors at US$0.75 per share, which is in line with the current market price. This move is expected to provide A2Z with additional funds, which will be used for working capital and overall corporate operations.
One of the standout aspects of this deal is that it does not involve any warrant coverage—an element that many investors tend to look out for as it can potentially dilute their holdings. This shows that A2Z’s management is confident in the company’s current valuation and is prioritising their shareholders' interests.
Furthermore, the funding round was supported by existing shareholders and insiders, indicating their belief in A2Z’s growth trajectory and future success. The funds raised are earmarked for expansion and development efforts, signalling A2Z’s ambitions to scale its operations and enhance its innovative technology solutions on a global level.
This fundraising exercise reflects A2Z's proactive approach to strengthening its financial position without engaging a placement agent, which also demonstrates cost efficiency. The company has secured this capital under favorable terms, which is an encouraging sign for investors and stakeholders alike.
This offering was made under an existing registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), ensuring transparency and compliance with regulatory standards. For investors, this signifies a step towards a brighter, more expansive future for A2Z, one backed by solid financial planning and the support of its core shareholders.
As A2Z continues its journey in the tech world, this new funding will be key in driving its growth initiatives, setting the company up for more innovative developments and greater market reach in the near future.
Nike (NKE): Analysis and Expectations Ahead of EarningsWe have analyzed this stock in the past privately, but we never published it, and it's a shame because we anticipated lower prices but have no proof of it. Still, we are looking for lower prices on NYSE:NKE , as we are about to finish Wave 4, most likely between $93 and $106.
NYSE:NKE will publish its earnings this week on Tuesday after market close. Heading into those results, the bar was low, as inflation keeps shoppers cautious.
Some analysts have said that even if those results come in better than expected, Wall Street's reservations could be hard to shake. However, others believe that with a new CEO on the way, investors might cut the company some slack.
So, the market might be ready for a push, but this sector is under much pressure as shoppers are finding it harder to spend money compared to previous years. It will be very interesting to follow NYSE:NKE and see if our outlook is correct or not. As shown in the chart, this scenario will be invalidated if the price breaks through $115.82.
We foresee a good entry opportunity between $60 and $50, where the most traded volume of the last 9 years has been.
We will update this stock when we know more. ✅
A Deeply Undervalued Play in Retail Tech Space (NASDAQ: AZ)A2Z Cust2Mate Solutions Corp, (NASDAQ: AZ) a cutting-edge retail technology company, is poised to redefine the shopping experience with its advanced smart cart technology. Operating in a market that is rapidly transitioning from traditional checkout systems to more sophisticated, data-driven tools, A2Z Cust2Mate finds itself at the forefront of this technological revolution.
However, despite its robust prospects and impressive offerings, the company’s share price remains depressed, largely due to a lack of visibility among investors. As the market becomes more familiar with A2Z’s unique value proposition, there’s potential for a significant re-rating of its stock, which is currently deeply undervalued.
The retail technology sector is undergoing a major shift, with the global market for smart retail systems projected to experience substantial growth in the coming years.
As traditional self-checkout systems face increasing scrutiny due to inefficiencies and security concerns, smart cart technology is emerging as a viable and attractive alternative for retailers.
A2Z Cust2Mate’s smart carts offer a seamless shopping experience that combines real-time item recognition, personalized promotions, and automatic checkout capabilities—positioning the company as a key player in the evolution of the retail industry.
Globally, the demand for smarter retail solutions has been driven by the need for enhanced customer experiences and improved operational efficiencies.
Retailers are investing in technologies that can reduce shrinkage (theft) and optimize in-store experiences. A2Z’s smart carts not only solve these pain points but also provide retailers with valuable data insights that can be leveraged for targeted advertising and better customer engagement.
Peer Valuation
A2Z Cust2Mate is currently trading at a significant discount compared to its peers in the retail technology space. Companies like Standard Cognition and Tracxpoint, which operate in similar sectors, have garnered valuations exceeding $1 billion.
Meanwhile, A2Z’s current market capitalisation stands at around $45 million, a stark contrast that highlights the company’s deep undervaluation. Competitors like Caper, which was acquired by Instacart at an approximate 35x revenue multiple, further emphasize how much upside potential A2Z could have if properly valued.
The primary reason for A2Z Cust2Mate’s undervalued stock price is a lack of visibility and awareness among investors. While the company has secured notable contracts and developed a highly innovative product, its achievements have flown under the radar.
This lack of recognition in the market has led to a disconnect between the company’s intrinsic value and its current share price. Furthermore, the challenges posed by the broader market, such as delays due to geopolitical events and operational hurdles, have weighed on investor sentiment.
However, as A2Z continues to execute on its growth strategy, especially with the upcoming release of its cost-effective third-generation smart carts, visibility is likely to improve. The company’s ability to secure larger, long-term contracts will serve as key catalysts for investor interest, helping to close the valuation gap.
With a peer group that commands significantly higher valuations and a proven track record of securing contracts with major retailers, A2Z presents a compelling investment opportunity. As visibility increases and the company continues to deliver on its promises, there is considerable potential for the stock to re-rate to its true value. At a current price of around $0.86 per share, A2Z offers a significant upside, with a target price of $3.00 reflecting the company’s long-term growth prospects. For investors seeking exposure to innovative retail technology, A2Z Cust2Mate is a stock worth watching.
CVS Health Corp | CVS | Long at $61.00NYSE:CVS Health Corp will need a revision to its business model in order to survive an ever-changing retail/pharmacy environment. However, with a P/E of 10x, debt-to-equity of less than 1x, growing cash flow, and dividend yield of 4.3%, the stock seems quite undervalued. Perhaps activist investors will soon step in, but if history repeats, there may be a nice bounce ahead as the price consolidates in the GETTEX:50S and low $60s. Thus, near its current price of $61, NYSE:CVS is in a personal buy zone.
Target #1 = $66.00
Target #2 = $68.00
Target #3 = $75.00
Target #4 = $79.00
Bullish Earning play oct 1Bullish earnings play for nike, as over 7000 $100 Oct 4 calls were bought on Sep 27 for .40 cents each
over 1500 volume in the Oct 4 $95 and 97 calls too
The implied move for ER is $6 / or 7-8%
There is a gap fill to $93 from the june earnings gap down.
For a hedge, you could buy the $80 put
A Chartist POV – A2Z Cust2Mate Solutions Corp (NASDAQ: AZ) Collection phase begun. Following the positive momentum in the US market last week, we see AZ showcased a positive buying momentum. We observed larger trading volume being done in last Friday, potentially indicating the entry of institutional investors. We will continue to observe this company, with our short term TP level remains as $1.00.
140 in play?Looks like it has reached its support "zone". Yeah its a zone because it can hit 75 as well. But in the short term it has the potential to hit 140.
Walmart’s (WMT) Earnings Could Signal Economic TrendsAt first glance, Walmart's earnings might not seem critical, but they provide key insights into consumer behavior and could serve as an indicator for future retail sales. If Walmart reports disappointing earnings, it could signal broader economic concerns. As one of the largest retailers in the U.S., a decline in Walmart's customer base may indicate that consumers are tightening their belts, which is never a good sign for the economy.
This is why we're closely monitoring Walmart. Sometimes, stocks can act as a barometer for the market. While we’re hopeful for a strong earnings report, we're also anticipating a potential price dip into the $43 to $36 range. Whether this occurs immediately or in the coming weeks is uncertain, but we believe it’s a likely scenario. If Walmart’s price drops into this range, it could present a compelling buying opportunity. The golden pocket Fibonacci retracement aligns with this area, and there’s also a significant, yet untagged, liquidation level at $40 that we're keeping an eye on.
We’ll be closely watching Walmart’s earnings and price movements. If we see a negative earnings report and a subsequent drop in price, we’ll provide updates and discuss potential strategies. 🤝
Target (TGT): Ready to Break Out of Its DowntrendWith Target, we have another major player in the US retail market, and we prefer its price structure over Walmart's. After completing Wave (3), Target experienced a significant sell-off, forming Wave (4). Currently, it appears that an inverse head and shoulders pattern is developing, which could signal a bullish reversal. The neckline looks particularly strong, and I will have a bullish outlook once this neckline is reclaimed.
There is a breakout gap following the completion of Wave (4), which might be revisited. However, for a well-formed head and shoulders pattern, we should see some momentum soon to create two shoulders at the same level. As long as the Wave (4) level at the Point of Control (POC) holds, we expect more upside, either after a slight dip into the breakout gap or immediately following the earnings report next week.
Starbucks: Brewing Long-Term Success Amid Short-Term ChallengesTrading at 23.4% below our estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 9.78% per year
Earnings have grown 10.8% per year over the past 5 years
Pays a reliable dividend of 3.04%
Starbucks Corporation's recent earnings report might have raised some concerns, but there are several reasons to remain optimistic about SBUX stock.
Despite a challenging quarter, Starbucks is strategically investing in digital innovation and expanding its global footprint, positioning itself for long-term gains.
The company's focus on sustainability and enhancing customer experience highlights its commitment to quality. Moreover, Starbucks' diverse product offerings and loyalty programs provide a solid foundation for future growth.
With strategic cost-cutting measures and a strong financial position, Starbucks is poised to rebound and deliver value to its investors.
UPS looking DOWNSNice head and Shoulders on the United Parcel Service
#UPS and FEDEX are the new dow transport indicator.
An underlying determinant of how the consumer is faring
Since the US is a consumer economy and Online shopping is the majority of retail
if we see new highs on the Indicies, and the home delivery carriers continue to deteriorate
it would give your non confirmation Top
Similar to Dow theory of new High's in the Industrials , but the transports lagging and indeed falling.
Mr Price priming for MAJOR upside in 2025Potential Inv H and S has been forming since September 2021.
Mr Price, has tested its lows at R125.00 multiple times, and the price continues to rocket up.
It now needs to form one more shoulder, higher low and cross above.
And we could see Mr Price at R305.37 by 2025.
NATURE of the analysis: High Probability
Price>20
Price>200
Target R305.37
GOLD / Approaching All-Time Highs...Gold Technical Analysis
Based on the provided chart, the following analysis can be made:
Current Outlook:
- The price is currently approaching the all-time high (ATH) of 2450 and is consolidating within a narrow range.
- There is a breakout zone that the price is approaching, which could signal further upward momentum if breached.
Bullish Scenario:
- If the price stabilizes above 2450, it is expected to continue its bullish trend.
- The next target after a breakout above 2450 would be 2466.
- Stability above this level would indicate a continuation towards even higher resistance levels.
Bearish Scenario:
- If the price fails to break and stabilize above 2450, it may consolidate or pull back.
- Immediate support levels to watch are 2440 and 2428.
- A break below 2428 could indicate a further decline, targeting support at 2398.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 2440
- Resistance Levels: 2450, 2466, 2475
- Support Levels: 2428, 2420, 2398
Technical Indicators:
- The indicator on the chart shows a combination of short-term and long-term moving averages, indicating that the price is currently in a strong uptrend as it approaches the ATH.
- The bands are widening, suggesting increasing volatility and potential for significant price movement.
Today's Expected Range:
- The price is anticipated to fluctuate between the support at 2428 and the resistance at 2466, with a general bullish tendency given the current momentum.
Summary:
Gold is currently in a bullish trend, approaching its all-time high. The key levels to watch are 2450 for potential breakout and continuation of the bullish trend, and 2428 for potential support in case of a pullback. The market is showing signs of increased volatility, so traders should be prepared for significant movements.
Fast Retailing _ Next Target is Channel Top _ +35% PROFITFast Retailing Co LTD, Two Rising Channel Patterns formed in Weekly Time Frame. Offering a Chance to Achieve a 35% PROFIT.
Support me; I want to Help People Make PROFIT all over the "World".
NikePoor results mean Nike has broken out of a triangle pattern which started forming in March 2022.
Clean break down with large sell side volume.
$NKE Potentially Consolidating, could test Looks like it’s consolidating but I like how it’s holding trend. And following through with RSI too. Might test the bear flag top. Lulu had some good international sales in China—with 35% growth in revenue over there. 3% growth in USA.
Possible entries to a Liverpool LongThis seems like a great buying point, looking at all the technicals, it would be hard for price to keep pushing down. However, the moving averages do tend to work as resistance and support, so it could be possible for price to drop there. However, It's unlikely price will continue to move down by much. And if so, price is likely to keep on rising. As this company has proven to be a go-to store for Mexicans looking for presents during the holidays, special events, sports gear and many others. Despite big competitors, this brand has lasted the test of time.
