Violent IntrigueI was short for a while and missed the second and more recent drop... but I actually like this retail giant at this price/valuation/cap ($36mm... that is free). I like that it dropped back to its stagnant price of 2019, but did not break lower. Under a dollar will start to scare me... I see no reason not to use this stock as hail mary money and risk what you are willing to lose. I am hopeful for the return of the generic trend up, which would be 200-300% from the current price.
**no position, intentions to buy.
Retail
The rise of the braindead investorMarkets always change and strategies have to be adapted. Just like with games, the meta changes all the time. An all round good trader should be able to adapt and succeed in all metas, or almost all, as long as it doesn't get too stupid and too random.
Ignorant cognitive bias shoe shine boys have taken over. Just like in the 1920s. But worse.
I expect markets to keep going parabolic for a while, and in particular those trollish "investments" like Tesla and other scams surfing the "end of the world clomote shounje" wave.
Bushfire crisis definitely not caused by arsonists...
When earth was pangea and average temperature was higher by 20°K/C (36F) (so even mor eon pangea) earth was in a constant buring state right? How did all thois survive? The power of imagination?
We also can notice that alarmists, The Armageddonists as JPM calls them, get alot of attention. Nouriel Roubini got a Nobel Prize for "predicting 2008 crisis".
He is very bearish on the stock market since 2011 and on Bitcoin since 2011 too.
JPMorgan Chase 2 months ago published a nice article about The Armageddonists am.jpmorgan.com
Those retail very low level low skill investors are very emotional and at the same time ignore reality because "that's being emotional".
So we can expect all the obvious things to be important and to consider (sudden price movements that have nothing to do with true value, end of the world predictions being given alot of attention, rational thoughts being ignored, irrational markets, mini bubbles everywhere, etc, the usual that happens regularly since 1500).
I think TA will work more often also, since this is what retail learns, and makes buying decisions on some arbitrary made up indicators (or extensions) rather than on the value of a company.
The cycle is I'd say at around 90% by now.
First all the bears get killed, then one last parabolic move up with every one euphoric. Another 4 years of bull and another 4 years of Trump I'm guessing.
With the internet, comission free brokers, complete noobs "invest". They are gullible and fall for complete scams so this has to be taken into account now.
Not going to fight it for the next few years. I still have my dow jones target around 33k.
There are ways to profit from all this of course, this is for me to know and you to find out :D
They do everything opposite...
I will mostly continue to focus on Fx & hard commodities anyway. I like my clean & repetitive trades.
Stocks and indices will probably get alot of random (or maybe they are not random?) large spikes...
Got to give stupid news more weight now.
Gone are the good old days when you could ignore lunatics or just laugh at the kid that eats grass and vomite at school.
Now the more unimportant and ridiculous one is, the more markets will react to that person or group.
So we have to sit there and pretend we take seriously complete mongoloids that are convinced 2+2 is 5, a 25% efficient 50 times more dense energy source can be replaced by "just make electricity more efficient" (50 times 0.25?) or the earth is a sphere because "science" no matter the proof you show to them.
I really like the dead stock bounce strategy, Marc from the ukspreadbetting channel has posted some of his trade on youtube recently, he is making money from suckers (oh here I gave you a way to abuse this current situation), here is an example:
The secret is to be rigorous. The first part is you have to get in early after the new high is made, and if you missed out you stay away. Then price keeps going on as suckers notice it, read about it, or suckers that were afraid of buying start having regrets and finally surrender and buy. So you are front running the noobs.
The second part is once the price starts dropping you get out! Noobs will hold on by fear of missing out (and a few times they will "be right" and have survivor bias and think they wer"e geniusses lmao) but experienced skilled speculators just get out no question asked. It's so simple... yet most can't do it. If you manage to do this, naturally or via training, here is your lucrative strategy. Still it's grindy to go and scan all these stocks and look for the right ones read about them etc. Time actually has to be spent analysing this.
Apart from this DSB strat I don't really like much. I would just look for buys until the dow gets to around 33k and/or Trump presidency is over. Then maybe consider shorting the entire stock market especially if there is a catalyst at the same time.
Just going to stick to FX&Futures but they have their periods, and during certain times it gets so boring, and I spent so much time looking for new strats for those times but haven't found much, it might be interesting to look at stocks actually. Or just go on vacation.
CVS is back!After a press release indicating that CVS Health plans to open 600 new Health Hub stores this year, CVS stock has once again been climbing. I suspect the breakout will continue once CVS pushes through some resistance. I'm looking for maybe $78 per share from this run. CVS's forward P/E of about 10.5 is very attractive for a stock with large growth prospects in the next 2 years. We've got a healthcare cost bubble in the USA, and CVS may be on the leading edge of popping that bubble with its low-cost clinic model. It also boasts a roughly 2.5% dividend.
GS Goldman Sachs: $245 artificially undervalued towards $1,000new markets new customers when the rich becomes richer and the rise of middle class require more banking needs
Goldman shall dominate this space in the next decade.
That liquidity from the FED and make America great again shall benefit strong hands
Price action wise it's a Parabolic to fresh highs
--
LOADED for the long run
warren may just mark this up to $300 to make a statement
REMINDER: this listed most issues and as underwriter packager
it knows how to surprise the PUBLIC
Possibly a retrace before swing up 405p+Sideways & let it settle before a swing up.
Superdry ex-CEO is back & I believe they will improve in time, 6 months not enough for full change but there is symptoms on improvement.
New Age Retail: Comparison Not that I know these brands super well, but it's awesome to see retail expanding beyond brick and mortar, each of these is now worth $1B+.
Interesting to note, NASDAQ:REAL 's market cap just exploded (after the IPO equity lockup expired... went from below $200M to $1B+... the stock didn't react.
Foot Locker shows early signs of momentum ahead of dividendShoe store company Foot Locker trades at an attractive forward P/E of 7.73, with a dividend yield of 4%. Analysts expect the company to grow its earnings over the next 2 years. The stock's been a little sluggish lately, but it's starting to show signs of momentum ahead of its January 17 ex-dividend date. Now may be the time to buy the stock to capture the dividend.
TLRD - how is this price holding?Trying to find a bottom on TLRD and had a $4 entry point late August/early September that didn't execute (too early it seems).
I figured the 18% dividend yield was an easy win...
Corporate stock buy back...
~90% institutionally held...
Executive departure...
Further downward guidance...
Suspended dividend...
How is this price point holding up?
USDJPY looking to find supportThe US CPI figures and Retail data points should give the USD a boost if they come out as expected.
The last FOMC meeting also comes with economic projections for 2020 and this is where the USDJPY could find the momentum to rise.
If the UK elections go as currently forecasted with a Conservative majority, the Japanese yen should not be the go-to safe haven, leaving any positive news out of the US as a catalyst for the rise in USDJPY.
American Eagle Outfitters bullish trend line breakI've been closely watching American Eagle Outfitters for this moment. With a P/E under 10, the stock is attractively valued. It has an 8.4/10 analyst summary score and is rated highly undervalued by S&P Capital IQ. The average analyst price target of $20.33 implies 25% upside from the current price. With an RSI of about 57 on the daily chart, the stock has room to run. It ought to hit about $16.75 soon. It might then pull back a bit before heading up to $17.75. The best-case scenario for the medium term is probably about $20.
HD should be good for a post-dividend bounceHome Depot's momentum has definitely been slowing lately, and the stock dipped hard after its latest less-than-stellar earnings report. However, the stock often dips before its dividend and then bounces after. With the stock going ex-dividend today (0.63% quarterly yield), it may be time for a bounce buy. December is usually a good month for Home Depot stock, and November's strong housing and construction data favor Home Depot's earnings success in the next quarter. HD has a 7.8/10 analyst summary score, an average analyst price target of $239 per share, and more-bullish-than-usual options interest today.
CVS breached channel top; buy the pullbackCVS has been on a monster run, and today it breached the top of its long-term downward trending parallel channel. CVS is overbought, so it will probably pull back before moving higher, but the channel breach is a bullish signal that strongly suggests the downtrend is over. I expect CVS to see 100 within a year or two.
Foot Locker an undervalued stock with earnings growthFoot Locker's earnings outlook has been improving in the last six months. Analysts have gone from expecting earnings to decline year-over-year to now expecting substantial earnings growth in 2020 and 2021. That means that Foot Locker's low valuation, with a P/E of just 8.3, should start to head back north toward the 10-20 range. Unless the earnings outlook turns negative again, I think FL's share price should hit $55 in the next year or two. Plus, with a 4% dividend, you get a nice yield on your investment.
VIPS run should continue after pullback from overboughtChinese retailer VIPS has been on a massive run lately, and is now pulling back from overbought on the weekly. The stock has formed two upward trend lines, one steeper than the other. We may break the steepest trend line and bounce from the secondary one. VIPS started 2019 at a low valuation, and over the course of the year has seen a roughly 100% increase in its earnings forecast. The share price has risen accordingly, but the stock remains significantly undervalued according to S&P Global Intelligence, with a valuation rating of 86/100.
VIPS has posted huge earnings beats on its last five earnings reports. The company next reports earnings on February 18, 2020. Judging from the current earnings forecast, I judge that the share price is likely to hit $30 per share by 2021. The stock has a 9.5/10 analyst summary score and fairly bullish options volume even after the huge run it's been on.
XRT - Ascending Triangle BreakoutThe SPDR S&P Retail ETF closed above the resistance line yesterday but is seeing continuation of that breakout early in today's session. A close above the previous resistance line would confirm the breakout but a price above $45.70 would be better as price has rejected from there a couple of times prior.
Likely continued upside in Matas during next weeks (and years)Matas might be about to break its down trend if it can move up through the top of the down trend channel at 63 DKK during the next few weeks. If it can, the next price target would be the top of the trading range 76 DKK. A further break through 76 DKK would indicate a new strong up trend.
High Basing Pattern as Wal-Mart Takes Market ShareIt's hard to say which traditional big-box is doing a better job adapting to the digital age: Wal-Mart Stores or Target . Both have successfully used online strategies to keep shoppers in their brick-and-mortar locations. That's helped avoid the kind of painful downsizing sweeping other retailers.
It's paid off recently for WMT, which beat profit estimates all four quarters in 2019. The shares got a little ahead of themselves the last time it reported on November 14, resulting in five weeks of consolidation.
During that time WMT formed a high basing pattern, or a very tight cup-and-handle. The December low of $117.42 was just slightly higher than the late-October low of $116.83. Plus, it held the 50-day SMA.
Fundamentals in WMT also remain healthy, with observers seeing the potential for its online grocery push to keep driving market share.
In conclusion, few people view WMT as a "growth" stock. But it's starting to act like one. And now it has a cup-and-handle, the classic growth-stock pattern from William O'Neill's classic How to Make Money in Stocks .
NASDAQ:AMZN
Amazon in a long level, up to $1850 then $2000?Amazon drops into a key support level where it rotated a few times right at $1745 now its showing signs of strength and volume is starting to increase. It's been in a strong range for 4 months now and it looks like its about to break above. As long as retail numbers don't disappoint in the next few months we'll hit the first target at $1845-1850 and then into $1900. We need to see price break above the year to date POC and hold it as support. Volume on the move higher is really important as well.
Disclaimer: This idea is for educational purposes only, this does not constitute trading or investment advice. TRADEPRO Academy is not responsible for any market activity.
Possible bounce levels on ZumiezZumiez reported better-than-expected earnings, and as a result, analysts have been revising the earnings outlook upward. I'm targeting about $37 per share for my exit based on the current earnings forecast. Zumiez rocketed after the earnings announcement, but has been dropping since. I've identified four possible bounce levels; we're already at the first. Scale in at the support lines or watch for a trend line breach to confirm a bounce.
LONG BBBY 13.85 - 13.00 - 12.50Looking for a drop on BBBY to take it long. Trending up and entering on the different support levels combined with fib retracements.
The stock has a potential fundamental upside with mayor company turnaround in play. Looking for a good entry point because seeing this stock
at 20.00 in the next 2-4 months is not a long shot. Maybe sooner. If it goes below 12.50 I will be out and re-enter at a better level.
Safe trading.