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Here's what Wall Street economists expects this week.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for continued patience in monitoring inflation trends during his remarks at the Foreign Bankers’ Association's annual meeting in Amsterdam on Tuesday. Powell highlighted that while there was some easing of inflation in the U.S. last year, the first quarter showed unexpectedly high inflation rates, which were not anticipated. Despite these challenges, he maintains a cautious optimism that inflation will gradually return to the Fed's target of 2% over the year, though he admitted his confidence has diminished somewhat following the recent data. Powell concluded by stating that the central bank will closely observe incoming inflation data to determine its future monetary policy actions. This week will see an increase in activity with the upcoming release of the U.S. April consumer price index on Wednesday, which is closely watched by economists focusing on potential changes in Federal Reserve policies, particularly the possibility of interest rate cuts before the end of the year. Recent data has shown a disruption in the declining inflation trend from the first quarter, sparking concerns about persistently higher inflation rates and reduced likelihood of monetary easing, according to Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo. In response to these concerns, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated two scenarios that could lead to rate cuts: a reassurance of low inflation rates or a sudden downturn in the labor market. Key events this week include: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April: Scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday. Economists anticipate that the headline CPI inflation will increase by 0.4% for the third consecutive month, with the year-over-year rate possibly moderating to 3.4%, slightly down from 3.5% the previous month. The core CPI, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, might rise by 0.3%, marking the lowest rate since December, with an annual pace expected to decline to 3.6%, a three-year low. Retail Sales for April: Also set for Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, where retail sales are expected to show a modest increase of 0.5%, following a strong 0.7% rise in March. Sales excluding autos might increase by just 0.2%, compared to a 1.1% increase the previous month. Adjustments to March's figures could be made, potentially affecting the April growth figures. Weekly Jobless Claims: On Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, jobless claims are anticipated to decrease by 12,000, offsetting more than half of the previous week's unexpected rise to 231,000, influenced by seasonal employment shifts in New York. Overall, while inflation has shown signs of heating up unexpectedly in the first quarter, economists still forecast a downward trend for the year. The Philadelphia Fed's latest survey suggests that by the fourth quarter, headline inflation could slow to 2.5% annually, with core inflation at 2.7%.
OANDA:SPX500USDEducation
by SroshMayi
Macro Monday 36~U.S. Johnson Redbook Index (U.S Retail Sales)Macro Monday 36 The Redbook Index – U.S Physical Retail Store Sales (Released Tomorrow Tuesday 4th March 2024) This Johnson Redbook Index is very useful at providing the most current insights into consumer spending habits in the U.S. It is released every week covering the prior Mon – Sun consumer spend period in physical outlets around the U.S. The index is compiled by Johnson Redbook Service by surveying a sample of 9000 retailers, and tracks year-over-year changes in sales of stores that have been opened for at least one year. The Redbook Index historically tracks sales information from physical stores (Brick and Mortar Stores). Their website describes that they monitor "retail sales" and "same-store sales" which typically refers to physical locations, however some stores also now have an additional online presence, thus in recent years efforts have been made to incorporate some of the online sales data into the index, however this is a secondary and marginal. The Chart The Redbook Index provides the YoY percentage increase or decrease of USD in retail sales in the United States. It is released every week covering the prior Mon – Sun spend period giving a real time read on current consumer spending It being a YoY data release means the percentage change in the Redbook Index is typically measured by comparing the current week's retail sales to those of the same week in the previous year. This calculation is expressed as a percentage to show the increase or decrease in sales over that time period. Example: If retail sales for the current week are $110,000 and sales for the same week last year were $100,000, the percentage change would be * 100, resulting in a 10% increase. The chart above illustrates the following: ▫️ The average % from 2005 to 2024 is 3.59% (black line in middle). We shall use this as our average midline barometer of retail sales. ▫️ Moderate levels of retail sales appear to fluctuate between +6% and -0.1% (white area in the middle). ▫️ We have an Exuberance Zone (Green) for when retail sales were over extended to the upside and a Recessionary Zone (Red) which was penetrated during the last two recessions. ▫️ You can see that in the mid 2000's we bounced off the Recessionary -0.1% zone three times as the index also made a series of lower highs (see arrow). This could be perceived as waning or struggling retail spending ahead of the crash. At present we have a series of lower highs and we have bounced off the Recessionary Level (-0.1%) once, if we see continued lower highs and more bounces from the red zone, this could be a concerning repeating pattern. You will be able to press play on my TradingView page at any stage over coming months to see where this index has moved on this chart. Lets see how this index performs over coming weeks and months. PUKA
ECONOMICS:USRI
by PukaCharts
Box Store Giants: Macro Fib SchematicsWalmart, Costco, Target, CVS, Home Depot, and Walgreens are the largest box store giants in the market. Proctor and Gamble along with Nike are in here because they are both also mega corporations and since P&G has so many products in these stores. Nike is also a staple in these stores but Proctor and Gamble especially belongs here. These Fibonacci Schematics are extremely clean and probably the best looking structure I have ever seen. This is an excellent example of market mechanics working through Fib Schematics. If we were to talk about what we see here 2/27/24 then we see.... - Walmart at a couple resistances. - P&G launching off massive Fib Cluster support. - Costco testing the waters above and getting ready to jump into next levels. - Home Depot testing its midpoint from its high with a massive front run from the Thick Orange Fib Line after the actual rejection at the high. This means we are set to launch through the high at 420. - Target barely rejected the high (FRONTRUN) and found reasonable support on the same supports it FRONTRAN. Target is poised to go crazy high. - Nike looks like it can do anything. - CVS also looks like it can do anything but looks more bearish tbh.
NASDAQ:WBA
by MichaelBsul
#WMT has walmart exhausted itself with this rally?Walmart, the retail behemoth, seems to have exhausted itself with the superb run seen in the share price from a low of $149 to $170 since the end of last year. We have a demark 9 exhaustion sell signal followed by bearish divergence (Price higher high not confirmed by lower high in the RSI). In addition we have seem the MACD cross down which could be suggesting weakness in momentum in the days ahead. The last two candles on the chart have engulfed 8 days of action above $169 so the likelihood is that we now retrace to the first big level at roughly $166 which co-incides with the 20dma, 23.6% fib and the uptrend from the December lows. Should this trendline break, further weakness can be expected to the 38.2 and 50% retracement levels of approx. $163 and $160
NYSE:WMTShort
by MarcoOlevano
Mr Price ready to break above the W to R209.60W Formation is forming on Mr Price. It's been in a consolidation range since March, which prior that was in a continuous downtrend since April 2022. Now the price has broken above the downtrend, which is currently testing the support. And if it breaks above and through the neckline, we will see upside to come for the retail giant. This also falls in line with the Christmas Rally that normally takes place in December with the buying rush on both consumer and investor side. 7>21 - Bullish RSI>50 Target R209.60
JSE:MRPLong
by Timonrosso