Retail
As retail sector struggles BKE prices likely to trend lowerWith retails sector getting crushed in the past few months, Buckle, Inc is a very strong candidate to trade in mid $10 in the next few weeks. Decreasing sales and revenue will continue to propel Buckle downwards until something changes fundamentally.
More details here - blog.buysellshortcover.com
DAX analysis/thoughts for the coming months march-juneAfter a major surge upwards while closing on the previous ATH, #DAX might be looking to start a major pullback to gather liquidity for a bigger move up for new ATHs.
A lot of shorts getting stopped out every day and there are still no signs of retail going bullish. Because of that we might be looking at another stop run before institutionals start taking profit and we begin the downtrend with sell offs. As of now we still have no supply at the current levels 11900-12000 and could form one before heading down. My bias is short after closing all my previous longs but i am not shorting yet. (Check my previous idea to see when I went long for 400+ pips).
We are looking for the reversal at weekly supply between 11390-11440. If that doesnt hold, we could be heading either 11200, or sub 11k.
Sportsman's Warehouse Double bottom with August 2014 low. If it breaks this, who knows where it will go.
17.4% of float short, per finviz. Can expect short squeeze
Sell Marks & SpencerMarks has rallied into multiple levels of resistance on the daily chart. This is the top of the range where previous highs have stalled. It is also the 200 day moving average. There is divergence on both the relative ratio(vs UKX) and the RSI, which suggests the momentum is stalling. Sell with a stop at 364p, targeting a move towards the lower end of the range at 308p
COST: Buy out of the money calls for a monthWe have a pretty low risk trade here. You can look to buy way out of the money calls for dirt cheap after the earnings report for $COST. Upside is crystal clear. Even though this stock isn't such a good value pick, as say, $KSS (which has been nothing short of amazing so far), it's still a good contender to catch up to the retail rally it's been lagging.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Amazon in the green, deserves earnings exposure.GREAT LONG-TERM TECHNICAL PICTURE, SOME RECENT WEAKNESS
- Long term uptrend took us to historical high on October 6, 2016
- Gentle uptrend over the past 6 months with a breakout late Sept.
- Some short term weakness since the top, but still in breakout mode
SOLID, PRICEY FUNDAMENTALS
- Continues to impress the investment community
- 87.5% of consensus has a buy recommendation
- Consensus target price $913/Share (+11.6%)
- Justified by impressive long term EPS growth (+48.5%)
- Improving profitability (ROE 13.64%)
- Expensive stock (P/E 203.89x and P/BV 28.8x)
EXCITING EARNINGS PUBLICATION HISTORY: VOLATILE
- Over the past 13 quarters since mid-2013
- Measured the 5-day performance before and into earnings
- Average stock performance during earnings week = +2.60%
- Min -9.94% Max +20.00%
TRADING STRATEGY: USE OPTIONS FOR EXPOSURE
- Sell Nov 18'16 $750 put = +$9.33
- Buy Nov 18'16 $850 call = -$19.00
- Total cost = $9.67 (1.18%)
- Best case: Continuation of breakout ==> Make money on both legs
- Worst case: Stock falls post earnings and you become long a great story 8% below the current price.
JWN Short - weakness into earningsExpect we partially recover from the weakness over the last day. Prior support around 53 may serve as resistance. And then a lower low, hopefully down to 48.5.
Buy Morrison SupermarketsMorrison Supermarkets has outperformed the FTSE 100 index by over 10% in the last 3 months. The shares are also outperforming their sector index in the same period. The shares have completed a base pattern on the weekly charts and look set to keep pushing higher over the medium to long term.
KSS Long Term "Trade"KSS had a great season with good growth.
Improved retail spending is sending revenue streams higher.
First target is anywhere over $50.
Final target if $50 breaks is $60 for 2016.
XRT Retail Earnings POTENTIALRetail earnings are in full swing this upcoming week!
Here is a TA based version of my expectations for the week.
In previous quarters the strong USD and the slow down in Consumer Spending hit profits hard.
With retail sales up throughout the quarter and consumer confidence at 2016 high, all around beats are expected.
Driving retail market capitalization back to Q2 2015 level offers a short-term 8% return.
In the longer run, or collectively throughout the remainder of Q2, a 16% return is in the works.
EURUSD: Bad Forecast on EUR. Selling at Supply levelBad forecast on EUR (German retail sales). Selling at supply level.
Retail sales (MOM) US, commentLet's wait for what the Census Bureau will give us :)
1. Actual > Forecast - most of us will think it's good for Dollar :) let's see
2. Friday will add some confusion
3. Having a bear at a lunch time on wall street? well not sure, however friday new's are normally so "short term"!
4. As a traders do care, let's see :)
TA view is the same!
BBY BlockBuster Bust?HVF pattern developing. A macro perspective: short BBY long-term simply because of online retail dominance for tech products. I'm skeptical that brick and mortar retail will survive. BBY prior CEO placed a cost focus strategy that the new CEO has agreed and does not plan on changing. Cost focus strategies does not help with growth unless the company was operating inefficiently in the first place. Otherwise a cost cutting play is basically a survival strategy for concerns of a bad financial outlook/guidance. Cost focus helps companies to report better quarterly Income Statement. BBY still faces the same fundamental challenges as ODP, M, WMT, TGT, HGG, SHLD, and other retailers. Drop in BBY competition will not save them from enduring the same fate. Thus lower competition will not drive earnings or market shares of BBY up, or any other retailers for that matter - as some analyst have claimed. New products on the floor will not help either when information regarding the products can be found online, eliminating the need for a salesforce or marketing. However disadvantaged consumers might find BBY brick and mortar stores useful temporary.
Also form a fundamentally aspect, although BBY is not showing Negative Income (not yet), Annual Cash Flow statements are already showing declines in operation. If this trend continues I expect more smart money exiting. The 10 yr weekly chart already indicates a declining trend from BBY all time high, and as the company scrambles to lean itself to changes in market landscape, remedies like capital injections and liquidity will not save BBY. Until I hear a dramatic change in competitive pricing or some kind of operational advantage similar to AMZN, I don't see BBY outlook getting better. BBY might be a BlockBuster Bust.
top of cloud short watch close below 50 ma/same store sales baddiversify with long micro cap and short/retail maturing/rsi weak/money flow bad/macd and stoic about to cross/weak group/
URBN - weeklyspanking continues. not the good kind. break/bounce? take some profits on puts before close. play w/ house. retail getting smoked
below cloud short cci and percent r in low in weak retail group2 closes below cloud/target 61.60/stop close in cloud/ relative strength weak/stoc crossed/adx starting trend/money flow decreasing/below 8 ema goal line/below 50/
weak retail below cloud- below key macci and percent r at bottom see in our book on amazon for reasons.stoc crossed-adx right-relative strengty weak- stop loss top of cloud diversify among short candidates mix long and short always stop loss long and short
weak retail below cloudbelow 50money flow weakstoc crossed volume confirm-group weak-stop loss 50 ma-cci and percent r bottom-relative strength weak
RETAIL WEAK CANDIDATE CLOSE TO CLOUD EARNINGS COMINGCCI AND PERCENT R BOTTOM RANGE SEE INOUR BOOK THE REASONS ON AMAZON HAVE SHORT AND MICRO CAP LONGS-RELATIVE STRENGTH WEAK-MONEY FLOW DECREASING-STOC ON DOWN SIDE-CLOSE TO BREAKING 50 MA-WEAK GROUP
M: Macy's offering a great short into earningsWe can enter shorts aiming to capture the anticipated sharp decline into earnings.
Macy's reports one day before the 'Time at mode' downtrend signal here expires.
The two targets seem quite realistic in my opinion, might be a home run trade, don't miss it!
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
