COSTCO needs one more Low before it bottoms.Costco (COST) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the March 07 High and last week it hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since August 09. Even though this is the standard short-term Support level, we expect the price to break it and approach the bottom of the Channel Up where both previous Higher Lows were priced.
Our Target is $1000, just below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, where the last Higher High was priced.
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Retailers
HOME DEPOT Consolidation then rally until end of the year.Home Depot (HD) hit our $415.00 long-term Target as called on our previous analysis 5 months ago (April 24, see chart below):
It doesn't show however any signs at all of stopping here as the Channel Up has still significant upside potential before it prices a Higher High on its top. Being on its 2nd Bullish Leg and approaching the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, it is possible to see a minor short-term pull-back and then a more structured rise until the end of the year.
This is at least the pattern that the 1st Bullish Leg of the Channel Up followed and is that helped us pursue the previous ($415) target in the first place. The 1W MACD also shows the strong similarities between the two Bullish Legs.
As a result, our new long-term Target is $460.00 (marginally below the 1.786 Fibonacci extension).
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WALMART Short-term correction on the wayLast time we looked at Walmart (WMT) we gave a solid sell signal (March 27, see chart below), which served as a pull-back step for the stock's amazing recent Bullish Leg:
This time, the Channel Up it's been trading on is more aggressive, with each Bullish Leg posting rallies of +22% and 23.60% and bottoms made only just under the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), presenting easy buy opportunities.
As the moment, the price is already on the Channel's top (Higher Highs trend-line), having completed a +22% rise and technically the maximum it can go to is +23.60%. As a result, we expect a short-term correction now of at least -6.40% (similar to the last one). We estimate that to be around $77.00 and once the 1D MA50 breaks again, we will get our new buy opportunity, possibly on the 4th candle after the break.
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AMAZON 1st bullish break-out made. Only the 1D MA50 left.Amazon (AMZN) made a Channel Down Lower Low on Thursday just before hitting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and following the higher than expected earnings opened Friday much higher. That price jump broke above the September 14 Lower Highs trend-line. The 2nd and final bullish break-out we expect before buying again for the long-term will be above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is where the October 12 rejection took place.
A candle closing above it, would invalidate the medium-term bearish bias and most likely restore the stock back on long-term bullish trend. The 1D RSI Double Bottom is what at the moment is shifting the sentiment a little more towards a potential bullish break-out. On the other hand, a break below the 4H MA200 will cancel it. Our target is 146.00, just under the August 16 2022 High.
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Truworths looking like The Foschini and it's up to R69 (Nice)Inverse Head and Shoulders potentially is formeing on Truworths.
Through my experience, this formation might be short as the price action is very strong to the upside.
It might skip the entire Right SHoulder and just head right to the target from the getgo.
7>21
Price<200 But price is so close to the level, it can smell it. If it breaks up, it'll be great for upside.
RSI>50
Target R69.45
ABOUT THE COMPANY
~ Truworths is a South African-based retail company specializing in fashion apparel, footwear, and accessories.
~The company was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Cape Town, South Africa.
~ Truworths operates a vast retail network of stores across South Africa and has a presence in several other African countries, including Namibia, Botswana, Zambia, and Eswatini.
~The company's retail brands include Truworths, Truworths Man, Identity, Uzzi, and Earthchild, catering to different customer segments and fashion preferences.
~Truworths focuses on providing trendy and affordable fashion for men, women, and children.
HOW IT GOT ITS NAME
Truworths got its name from its founders, Isaac Krawitz and his brother, Hillie Krawitz. When the company was established in 1917, they named it "The Alliance Trading Company." However, as the business grew and expanded, they decided to change the name to Truworths in 1933. The new name was chosen to reflect the company's commitment to providing customers with quality products of true worth or value.
UPDATE: Shoprite showing strong upside still to come target R257Since the last update, Shoprite shot above the neckline of the Inverse Head and Shoulders.
Since then, it's been rocketing to our first target. As long as the JSE ALSI continues its medium term upside and the retailers continue to move up - there is no stopping this one.
Other indicators confirm.
7>21
Price >200
RSI>50
Target remains at R257.00
ABOUT THE COMPANY
Origins:
Shoprite originated in 1979 in South Africa, starting as a chain of eight supermarkets in Cape Town.
Growth:
Shoprite is now the largest supermarket retailer on the African continent.
They operate in 15 countries across Africa and the Indian Ocean Islands.
Headquarters:
The company's headquarters are in Brackenfell, Cape Town, South Africa.
Brands:
Shoprite Holdings operates several well-known retail brands, including
Shoprite,
Checkers,
Checkers Hyper,
Usave,
OK Furniture,
House & Home, and more.
Services:
Apart from retail services, Shoprite also provides financial services, such as money transfer, ticket booking, and payment of utility bills.
Employment:
Shoprite is a significant employer in Africa, providing jobs to tens of thousands of people.
TFG could take some time but heading to R120.00 interesting factInv H&S has formed on The Foschini Group.
It's potential and there are two scenarios.
One the price just rallies with the rest of the JSE Retailers and goes to R120.
Or two, it could hit the top of the downtrend, consolidate align and then break up and out of it once there are strong buying troops and demand.
Either way, the signs are good for upside since it broke out of its one year downtrend channel.
7>21
Price<200
RSI>50
Target R120.00
ABOUT TFG
~ The Foschini Group (TFG) is a prominent South African retail company with headquarters in Cape Town.
~ TFG was founded in 1925 and has since grown to become one of the largest retail groups in South Africa.
~ The company operates a diverse portfolio of retail brands, including Foschini, Markham, Totalsports, @home, Exact, and more.
~ Markham is a leading men's fashion brand known for its contemporary clothing, footwear, and grooming products.
~ Totalsports focuses on sports apparel, footwear, and equipment, catering to various sporting disciplines.
~ @home is a home and furniture brand offering stylish and modern homeware, furniture, and decor items.
~ TFG has a significant presence not only in South Africa but also in various African countries such as Botswana, Namibia, Lesotho, and Zambia.
HOW IT GOT ITS NAME
The Foschini Group (TFG) got its name from its founder, Benjamin Foschini.
He was a Jewish immigrant who established the company in 1925 as a small store in Cape Town, South Africa.
Mr Price 15 Month Channel - continues but heading up to R153.25Mr Price has been in a lingering downtrend channel since March 2022.
It's been a trading haven for range bounded traders who look for this kind of activity.
However for a breakout trader, it's been a waiting game.
So best we buy at the bottom of the range sell at the top and repeat.
Right now the price is heading back to R153.25.
If we get a breakout, we'll buy more. If it turns down, I'll send out the next signal.
Let's wait and see!
~ Mr Price Group Ltd. was established in 1985 and is headquartered in Durban, South Africa.
~ The company operates various retail brands, including Mr Price, Mr Price Sport, Mr Price Home, Miladys, Sheet Street, and Power Fashion.
~ Mr Price primarily targets the value-conscious consumer market by offering trendy and affordable fashion and lifestyle products.
~ The company started as a small store called "Mr Price" in Durban and gradually expanded its operations to become a prominent retail group in South Africa.
~ The name "Mr Price" was chosen to represent the company's focus on providing good value for money and affordable prices to its customers.
~ The company has also expanded internationally and operates stores in other African countries, including Namibia, Botswana, Lesotho, Eswatini, and Ghana.
CHANGE IN NAME
Over time, the company has rebranded its stores to display the name "MRP" instead of "Mr Price." They did this to appeal to a wider customer base. Despite the change in store branding, the company's official name remains Mr Price Group Ltd.
Pep broken above the 8 month downtrend Target R20.10Price has finally broken above the Downtrend since November 2022.
Also the price formed a Scallop formation, which has broken up and out of.
Momentum is pointing up.
Other indicators confirm.
7>21
RSI>50
Target R20.10
ABOUT THE COMPANY
~ JSEPPH Pepkor Holdings is a South African-based investment holding company that operates in the retail sector.
~ Pepkor Holdings (went public as PPH in 2017) was founded in 1965 by Jan Hettema as a single clothing store in Cape Town, South Africa.
~ The name "Pep" was derived from the first initials of Jan Hettema's three sons, who were named "P"atrick, "E"dward, and "P"eter.
~ The company has a diverse portfolio of retail brands, including Pep Stores, Ackermans, Incredible Connection, JD Group, and Tekkie Town, among others.
~ Pepkor Holdings has a significant presence not only in South Africa but also in other African countries, including Namibia, Botswana, Zambia, and Lesotho.
~ In addition to its African operations, Pepkor Holdings has expanded internationally and operates stores in Poland, Australia, and the United Kingdom.
~ The company focuses on value retailing, offering affordable products across various categories such as clothing, footwear, homeware, electronics, and more.
~ Steinhoff International Holdings, a global retail conglomerate, is a major shareholder of Pepkor Holdings.
Pick N Pay showing upside and broken above downtrend target R52Rounding bottom or C&H is forming on PIK.
Whichever price breaks up and out of will give a strong buy signal.
Other indicators are confirming upside.
7>21 but price is still <200MA. We can expect the price to move up to rebalance with the 200MA which acts as an elastic.
RSI>50
Target R52.26
UPDATE Spar hit the target price R103.61 after a 15% crash!Inverse Cup and Handle formed on Spar and price broke below the brim level.
This sparked fear and lead to a ton of selling and supply.
We had other indicators confirm for the downside to come.
200>21>7
RSI<30
And yesterday, the price went down 15% striking right through the target at R103.61.
Smart Money Concepts
Above the handle, formed a Buy Side Liquidity Order Block.
This is where Smart Money came and swept buying orders and sold into them, which caused the crash.
And it looks like Spar wants to drop even further! But I'll let you know.
Pick N Pay downtrend about to continue to R23.20 - Fundamentals Downtrend has been forming on Pick n Pay since 8 Dec 2022.
It's been a difficult period for retailer and looks like there is more downside to come.
200>21>7 - Bearish
RSI<50 - Lower highs
Target R23.20
Apart from its distribution channel issues, I think the weakening rand is the main culprit for retailers downside.
There are a few fundamental reasons such as:
Import Costs:
Pick n Pay, like many other retailers, imports a significant portion of its products.
When the rand weakens, the cost of importing goods becomes relatively cheaper.
This may lead to lower procurement costs for Pick n Pay, allowing them to reduce prices and remain competitive.
Reduced Demand:
A weakening rand can indicate economic instability or uncertainty, consumers may feel worried about their finances and may become more price-sensitive and demand lower-priced goods.
This gives Pick n Pay the undesirable incentive to respond by reducing prices. (Not that we've seen this!)
Supplier Negotiations:
When the rand weakens, suppliers may face higher costs for raw materials or imported goods.
In order to maintain their business relationships and secure supply, suppliers might negotiate lower prices with retailers like Pick n Pay.
These cost reductions can be passed on to consumers through lower prices.
Inflation Pressure:
A weaker rand can lead to higher inflation. Imported goods become more expensive, which can lead to higher overall prices for consumers. If inflation rises faster than wages, consumers may cut back on spending.
ALIBABA Rejected on a huge Resistance cluster. Levels to watch.The Alibaba Group (BABA) is pulling back after being rejected not just on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) but also at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Falling Wedge pattern holding since the October 20 2021 High.
This is a huge Resistance cluster as the RSI on the 1W time-frame also got rejected near its 54.00 Resistance. Technically, if the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks, the stock can test the 58.15 Support, even make a Lower Low on the -0.136 Fibonacci extension.
The MA trend-line that has been unbroken the longest (since February 25 2021) is the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). As a result, if the price breaks above, naturally it will be a break above the 1 year Falling Wedge too, it should restore the bullish trend on the long-term. The first target in that case will be the previous High at 126.20.
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WALMART may be approaching the end of this rallyWalmart Inc. (WMT) has been rising since the low of the June 13 2022 weekly (1W) candle. Along the way it broke above the key Resistance of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and after it held the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), it has established both as Support levels long-term.
There are however two longer term patterns to consider that supersede those MA periods, and those are the Megaphone pattern since November 2020 and the Higher Lows trend-line/ Zone since November 09 2015.
As the 1W RSI enters the Resistance zone that is holding since 2016 and only broke once, we have to start considering that the top is near especially as the price is approaching the Higher Lows zone of the Megaphone. As you see since 2016, every major test of the 1W RSI Resistance Zone hit at least the 1W MA50. This suggests that if you bought Walmart a few weeks back, you may start looking to book profits and re-buy lower either on the 1W MA50 or even a little lower, the closer to the Higher Lows trend-line, the better.
If the price breaks first above the Megaphone's top (Higher Highs trend-line), it is an instant buy and a new bullish pattern will emerge.
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ACI Looking Weak Earnings are scheduled to be announced on the 28th for ACI.
Very poor technical setup for ACI, anything less than a phenomenal earnings report should send the stock tumbling down to support at the 21 level. I'm entering a short on ACI as soon as I see a retest of 26.00 and then a follow-up confirmation of lower price action.
ROST:Hope despite earnings miss!Ross Stores
Short Term - We look to Buy at 62.32 (stop at 53.59)
This stock has recently been in the news headlines. They missed revenue estimates for the 1st quarter. Broken out or a triangle formation to the downside. Measured move target is 61.00. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher. A higher correction is expected.
Our profit targets will be 89.47 and 100.00
Resistance: 70.00 / 80.00 / 90.00
Support: 60.00 / 50.00 / 40.00
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Banks Accumulate Positions | Large Stop Loss Clusters DetectedAs we know the big players chase the stop losses of retailers to get liquidity. They hit their stop losses and the price returns immediately to make a profit. In this idea we found a large stop loss cluster (5.52%) below the price while the exchange rate is downtrend. This is the potential target of the big players because there they will find the liquidity they are looking for.
The general philosophy is that the crowd loses long term money. Right now it has been placed long and since most retailers lose money if we place them upside down we have to end up on the right side. At this time the retailers are positioned 65.5% long and 35.5% short. This means that for the time being we should only look for short positions. Additionally 2% of fresh buyers come in (24/8/2021 | 6:00 A.M.), this is an extra confirmation for our short position.
The price will return when the big players collect enough liquidity. The whole range up to the orange line has several stop losses, so anywhere in this zone we expect the price to return targeting the large cluster of liquidity low at 5.52%.
Because the trade is downtrend overall the trade is considered safe. We have hidden our stop loss above the next cluster of retailers so that even if we are wrong and the price continues to go up by hitting the stop loss of other retailers but not ours.
American Eagle Outfitters - Multi-year Support BreakoutThe past 3-months' pullback seems to confirm the bearish breakout.
RSI is currently just above 40, and a drop below 40 is needed to further confirm the breakout.
Stochastic is currently under 20, the pullback was so quick that the stochastics did not show a retracement.