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GBP/USD edges lower, eyes retail salesThe British pound has extended its losses on Thursday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2401, down 0.11%. The pound is having a roller-coaster week. GBP/USD surged 1.8% on Tuesday following the soft US inflation print and climbed to a two-month high. However, the pound has since coughed up about half those gains and is trading at the 1.24 line. The UK releases retail sales on Friday, which could result in further volatility. UK retail sales had a dreadful September, coming in at -0.9% m/m and missing the forecast of 0.2%. The markets are expecting a rebound in October, with a forecast of 0.3%. September was unseasonably hot, which led to fewer purchases of autumn clothing. Consumers remain deeply pessimistic about the economy and are being squeezed by higher heating and fuel costs, elevated borrowing costs and a softer job market. On the inflation front, there was good news on Wednesday as inflation dropped to 4.6%, down sharply from 6.7% and below the forecast of 4.8%. This was the lowest level since October 2021 and inflation has finally dropped below 5%. However, the BoE has been stressing that the battle against inflation is far from over, and has projected that inflation won't fall to the 2% target until late 2025. In the US, producer prices fell 0.5% m/m in October, its largest drop since April 2020 and below expectations. The decline in gasoline prices was a major factor in the soft release. Retail sales for October dipped 0.1%, missing the estimate of 0.3% and snapping a six-month streak of gains. The weak numbers are further evidence that the US economy is cooling down. GBP/USD is putting pressure on support at 1.2374. Below, there is support at 1.2312 1.2476 and 1.2522 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Canadian dollar calm ahead of retail salesThe Canadian dollar has edged higher on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3688, down 0.23%. Canada releases retail sales later today, which could result in volatility from the Canadian dollar. Canada wraps up the week with the August retail sales report. The markets are bracing for a deceleration, with an estimate of -0.3% m/m, compared to a 0.3% gain in July. On a year-to-year basis, retail sales are projected to slow to 0.2%, down sharply from 2.0% in July. The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold rates at 5.0% for a second straight time at the October 25th meeting. The BoC has raised rates to high levels but has only hiked on two occasions in 2023, which indicates that on the whole,  interest rates are where the central bank wants them. I don't expect to see the BoC trimming rates before mid-2024, but at the same time, the BoC will do its utmost to refrain from further tightening. The takeaway message is that we should expect rates to remain in restrictive territory for some time yet. Last week's inflation report showed a decrease of -0.1% for both headline and core CPI in September,  which beat expectations. On a year-to-year basis, headline CPI dropped from 4.0% to 3.8% and the core rate eased to 2.8%, down from 3.3%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday that inflation remained too high and that the 2% target would be difficult to reach if economic growth did not cool. Powell didn't provide any hints about future rate policy, saying that rate decisions would be based on data and the economic outlook. The Fed has been sending out a "higher for longer" message, and Powell's focus on high inflation seemed to reiterate this stance. USD/CAD is testing support at 1.3643. Below, there is support at 1.3585 There is resistance at 1.3716 and 1.3774
by fisherkj4
GBP/USD flat as retail sales eyedThe British pound is drifting on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2142, almost unchanged. The UK inflation report on Wednesday was a stark reminder that inflation remains stubborn and sticky. The Bank of England has raised the benchmark rate to 5.25%, but headline inflation was steady at 6.7% y/y and the core rate ticked lower to 6.1%, down from 6.2%. Both readings were higher than expected disappointed investors sent the British pound lower on Wednesday. A key driver of headline inflation was rising motor fuel prices. The Israel-Hamas war has raised tensions throughout the Middle East and if there are disruptions in crude oil, inflation would likely rise due to higher motor fuel costs. The UK wraps up the week with retail sales on Friday. The markets are braced for a weak September with a market estimate of -0.2%, following a 0.4% gain in August. On an annualized basis, retail sales declined by 1.4% in August, but are expected to improve to -0.1% in September. In the US, unemployment claims for the week of October 14th sizzled at 198,000. This was lower than the previous week's release of 211,000 (revised) and lower than the consensus estimate of 212,000. The US labour market has been showing signs of softening as the Federal Reserve's rate hikes continue to filter through the economy and dampen economic growth. The markets are always interested in what Fed members have to say, hoping for some insights into Fed rate policy. A host of FOMC members will deliver remarks today, highlighted by a speech from Fed Chair Powell at an event in New York City. Today's lineup has added significance as the Fed will enter a blackout period ahead of the meeting on November 1st. The sharp rise in US Treasuries has led to some Fed members saying that inflation could fall without further hikes, and investors will be watching to see if that dovish message is repeated today by Powell and his colleagues. There is resistance at 1.2163 and 1.2202 1.2066 and 1.1987 and providing support
by fisherkj4
GBP/USD slips on strong US retail salesThe British pound has declined 0.56% against the US dollar on Wednesday, wiping out yesterday's gains. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2158, down 0.48%. The pound's downswing was driven by a higher-than-expected US retail sales report. Retail sales in the US surprised on the upside with a gain of 3.8% y/y in September. This beat the upwardly revised 2.9% rise in August and crushed the market estimate of 1.5%. On a monthly basis, retail sales rose 0.7%, compared to an upwardly revised 0.8% in August and well above the market estimate of 0.3%. Core retail sales, which exclude automobiles and gasoline, rose by 0.6% m/m, down from an upwardly revised 0.9% in August but easily beating the market estimate of 0.2%. The better-than-expected retail sales report indicates that consumer spending remains robust despite the challenging economic picture, which includes high inflation and elevated borrowing costs. Consumer spending likely accelerated in the third quarter and that will be reflected in the consumer spending component of GDP. The UK releases inflation on Wednesday. September CPI is expected to tick lower to 6.6% after a 6.7% reading in August. Inflation is at its lowest level since February 2022 but remains more than three times above the Bank of England's 2% target. The core rate, which excludes food and energy is closely monitored by the BoE, is expected to dip to 6.0%, compared to 6.2% in August. If inflation falls as expected or even further, it will provide support for the BoE to pause for a second straight time at the November 2nd meeting and the pound could react with losses. The Bank's decision to hold rates at the October meeting was a narrow 5-4 vote and Governor Bailey said yesterday that he expected upcoming rate decisions to be tight as well. GBP/USD has pushed below support at 1.2202. Below, there is support at 1.2104 There is resistance at 1.2281 and 1.2343
by fisherkj4
EUR/USD higher after mixed European releasesThe euro has stabilized on Wednesday and is in positive territory. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0519, up 0.50%. Germany is the largest economy in the eurozone. Once a global powerhouse, the economy has weakened and finds itself in the unfamiliar position of being a laggard in the bloc. Recent economic releases haven't been encouraging, but there was some good news from the services sector today. The Final Services PMI rose to 50.3 in September, up from 47.3 in August and above the preliminary estimate of 49.8. Still, the outlook for services activity remains soft as demand has been weak and service providers remain pessimistic. The Eurozone Services PMI remained in contraction territory with a reading of 48.7 in September. This marked a small rise from 47.9 in August and was higher than the consensus estimate of 48.4. Eurozone retail sales declined 1.2% m/m in August, compared to a revised 0.1% m/m decline in July and below the consensus estimate of -0.3% m/m. The decline was broadly based and will likely weigh on third-quarter GDP. On an annualized basis, retail sales fell by 2.1%, following a 1.0% decline in July. This marked an eleventh straight monthly decline. European consumers are grappling with 6% inflation and real wage growth was negative in the second quarter. Against this backdrop, it's no wonder that consumers are cutting back on consumption. ECB President Christine Lagarde signalled that the central bank is likely done with its rate-tightening cycle. Lagarde said in a speech today that interest rates were at a sufficiently restrictive level to bring inflation back down to the ECB's 2% target. The ECB raised rates at last month's meeting but hinted strongly that interest rates have peaked. The central bank is counting on elevated rates to continue filtering through the economy and cooling down growth and inflation. The ECB has raised rates ten straight times in the current tightening cycle, but the last decision was a dovish hike and a pause at the October 26th meeting would not be a surprise. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0489. Above, there is resistance at 1.0572 There is support at 1.0404 and 1.0321
by fisherkj4
EUR/USD extends losses, eyes German inflationThe euro has extended its losses on Wednesday and has declined close to 1% this week. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0552, down 0.18%. Germany has traditionally been the powerhouse of Europe but finds itself lagging in the rear, with a struggling economy and high inflation. The GfK Consumer Climate index fell to -26.5 for October, down from a revised -25.6 in September and shy of the market consensus of -26.0. This was the lowest reading since April and suggests that consumer sentiment will remain weak in the near future. The GfK report warned that private consumption will not contribute towards Germany's recovery, which is grim news for the eurozone. One of most eagerly waited eurozone releases is the German inflation report, which will be released on Thursday. The consensus estimate for German CPI stands at 4.6% y/y, compared to 6.4% y/y in August. If the estimate is on track, it would mark a significant win for the ECB, which has been raising rates aggressively in order to curb high inflation. The ECB raised rates last week, but the lead-up to the meeting was dramatic as it was a 50-50 call whether the ECB would hike or hold. A sharp drop in German inflation could send the euro lower as it would support the ECB taking a pause at the October meeting. The week wraps up with German retail sales on Friday. After back-to-back declines, retail sales for August are expected to rebound to 0.5% m/m. The US releases third-estimate GDP on Thursday, with a market consensus of 2.0%. This follows the second-estimate of 2.1% and the preliminary estimate of 2.4%. The US economy has recorded respectable growth figures despite the Federal Reserve's sharp tightening, as the labour market has remained strong and consumers continue to spend. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0594. Next, there is resistance at 1.0666 There is support at 1.0544 and 1.0472
by OANDA
GBP/USD extends losses on mixed UK dataThe British pound is in negative territory after two days of losses. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2245, down 0.40%. The struggling pound is down 1.1% this week and is trading at its lowest levels since late March. It is a busy day on the data calendar for UK releases. Retail sales rose in August by 0.4% m/m, following a 1.1% decline in July and was just shy of the market consensus of 0.5%. The sharp decline in July was largely due to unusually wet weather. On an annual basis, retail sales fell by 1.4%, compared to -3.1% in July. Consumer spending has been in a nasty rut, as annualized retail sales have now declined for 17 straight months. The silver lining was that the -1.4% drop marked the slowest pace of contraction in the current streak. The September PMIs were a mixed bag. The Services PMI slowed to 47.2 in September, down from 49.5 in August and missing the consensus estimate of 49.2. This marked a second straight deceleration and the sharpest contraction since January 2021. The Manufacturing PMI increased to 44.2 in September, up from 43.0 in August and above the consensus estimate of 43.0. The decline in activity in both services and manufacturing points to a UK economy that continues to cool. The Bank of England, which held interest rates on Thursday, will be hoping that the slowdown translates into lower inflation and that it can continue to hold interest rates. UK consumer confidence remains low, but there was a bit of an improvement in September. The GfK consumer confidence index rose to -21, up from -25 in August and beating the consensus estimate of -27. This was the highest reading since January 2022, but the economy has a long way to go before consumers show optimism about the economic outlook. GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2267. The next support level is 1.2156 There is resistance at 1.2325 and 1.2436
by OANDA
1
USD/CAD - Canadian dollar eyes retail salesThe Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3474, up 0.09%. Canada wraps up the week with the retail sales report on Friday. July's retail sales were weak, with a gain of 0.1% m/m and a decline of 0.6% y/y. August is expected to show improvement, with consensus estimates of 0.4% m/m and 0.5% y/y. The Bank of Canada held the benchmark rate at 5.0% at the September 6th meeting. The BOC's summary of deliberations from that meeting, released on Wednesday, showed that the BoC considered raising rates due to stubbornly high underlying inflation. In the end, the Governing Council members felt that earlier rate increases were having an effect on economic growth and voted to hold rates. Still, there was a concern that a pause might send the wrong message that the tightening cycle was over and that a cut in rates was coming. The BoC therefore stressed at the meeting that the door remained open to further rate increases and that underlying inflation was not falling fast enough. The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark rate at 5.5% at Wednesday's meeting. The Fed delivered a 'hawkish hold', signalling that it planned to keep rates in restrictive territory "higher for longer". This message sent US stock markets lower and US Treasury yields higher on Wednesday, with the US dollar showing short-lived volatility against most of the majors following the decision. The dot plot from yesterday's meeting indicated that the Fed expects to raise rates once more before the end of the year, the same forecast as in the June dot plot. However, the September dot plot projected trimming rates by 50 basis points in 2024, compared to 100 basis points in the June dot plot. This "higher for longer" approach indicates hawkishness on the part of the Fed, which remains focused on bringing inflation back down to the 2% target. USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.3468. The next resistance line is 1.3553 1.3408 and 1.3323 are the next support lines
by OANDA
AUD/USD eyes US inflation, Aussie jobs reportThe Australian dollar is lower on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6408, down 0.28%. The US releases the August inflation report later today. CPI is projected to increase in August to 3.6% y/y, following a 3.2% gain in July. On a monthly basis, the consensus estimate stands at 0.6%, higher than the 0.2% gain in July. Core CPI is expected to fall from 4.7% to 4.3% and remain unchanged at 0.2% m/m. The Federal Reserve puts more emphasis on core inflation readings which are considered more reliable indicators of underlying inflation. A drop in the core rate would be welcomed by the Fed and would cement expectations for a pause at next week's rate meeting. If however, inflation is stronger than expected, the Fed could respond with additional rate hikes in the coming months and that could mean stronger volatility for the US dollar. The markets have widely priced in a rate pause, with a probability of 93% according to the FedWatch tool. After that, the Fed's rate path is unclear, with the odds of a pause standing at 59%. The US labour market remains resilient, despite some cracks, and economic growth for the fourth quarter is expected to be strong. That could mean higher inflation for longer, which could complicate the Fed's efforts to finish the battle against inflation and bring it back to the 2% target. Thursday should be a busy day for the Aussie, with Australia releasing employment data and the US publishing retail sales numbers. Australia's job growth is expected to rebound with a gain of 23,000 in August, after a decline of 14,600 in July. US retail sales are expected to fall in August by 0.2% m/m, down sharply from 0.7% a month earlier. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6405. Below, there is support at 0.6330 There is resistance at 0.6453 and 0.6528
by OANDA
USD/CHF rises as Swiss retail sales fall, Swiss CPI nextThe Swiss franc has lost ground on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8835, up 0.59%. Thursday's Swiss retail sales for July looked awful, falling 2.3% m/m. This follows a revised gain of 1.5% in June. Market attention has now shifted to Swiss inflation, which will be released on Friday. Swiss inflation dropped to 1.6% in July, the lowest level since July 2022. The downtrend is expected to continue in August with a consensus estimate of 1.5%. Policy makers at the Swiss National Bank have to be pleased with the inflation rate. Switzerland boasts the lowest inflation rate in the developed world and both headline and core inflation are comfortably nestled in the central bank's inflation target range of 0%-2%. Still, the SNB remains wary about inflation, with concerns that increases in rents and electricity prices could push inflation back up to 2%. Food inflation remains high and rose from 5.1% to 5.3% in July. Unlike other major central banks, the SNB meets quarterly, which magnifies the significance of each rate decision. At the June meeting, the central bank raised rates to 1.75% from 1.50% and hinted that further hikes were coming. The SNB has projected inflation will hit 2.2% in 2023 and 2024, above its target. That means the SNB expects to have to continue raising rates, although, as is the case with many other central banks, the peak rate appears to be close at hand. In the US, unemployment claims dropped to 228,000 last week, down from a revised 232,000 and below the estimate of 236,000. All eyes will be on Friday's job report, with nonfarm payrolls expected to dip to 170,000, down from 187,000. The Fed's favourite inflation gauge, the PCE Price Index, increased in July by 0.2% for a second straight month, lower than the estimate of 0.3%. On an annualized basis, the PCE Price Index climbed 3.3% in July, up from 3.0% in June. Service prices rose by 0.4% in July, up from 0.3% from the previous month. The numbers indicate that the Fed's battle with inflation is far from over, and the final phase of pushing inflation down to 2% may prove the most difficult. USD/CHF is testing resistance at 0.8827. Above, there is resistance at 0.8895 0.8779 and 0.8711 are providing support
by OANDA
NZD/USD climbs ahead of retail salesThe New Zealand dollar has posted strong gains on Tuesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5959, up 0.55%. On the data calendar, New Zealand retail sales are expected to decline by 2.6% q/q in the second quarter, compared to -1.4% in Q1. The New Zealand dollar has gone on a dreadful slide since mid-July, falling as much as 500 basis points during that spell. The current downswing has been driven by weak global demand and jitters over China's economy, which is showing alarming signs of deterioration. Chinese releases have been pointing downward recently. Exports and imports have fallen, manufacturing activity is weak and the world's second-largest economy is experiencing deflation. Last week, Evergrande, a huge Chinese property developer, filed for bankruptcy in the United States, raising fears of contagion to other parts of the economy. It wasn't long ago that the Chinese 'miracle' was being touted as an economic powerhouse on the global stage, but now the world's second-largest economy is in deep trouble and is dragging down global growth. An interesting silver lining is that deflation in China could help lower inflation worldwide, which would be good news for the Fed, ECB and other central banks that are battling to push inflation lower. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has responded in recent days to the economic slowdown with some cuts to lending rates, but surprisingly, has not trimmed the five-year loan prime rate, which has a major impact on mortgages. The PBOC's lukewarm move to the economic crisis could mean China's economy will continue to sputter, and that is bad news for the New Zealand dollar, as China is by far New Zealand's largest trading partner. If Chinese releases continue to head lower, we can expect the New Zealand dollar to continue losing ground. NZD/USD has pushed above resistance at 0.5941 and is putting pressure on resistance at 0.5978 There is support at 0.5885 and close by at 0.5848
by OANDA
Craft Beer Seltzer Alcohol Barometer: Sam Adam's Boston Beer Co.Alcohol consumption When averaged over two years, 2021-2022, 63% of U.S. adults aged 18 and older consumed alcohol. Gallup, Inc. indicates that "the drinking rate ticks up to 65% when narrowed to adults of legal drinking age" of 21. When segmented based on demographic characteristics: Eighty percent of adults, 18 and older, living in households with annual incomes of $100,000 or more consumed alcohol in 2021/2022. Only 49% of those living in a household with an annual income of less than $40,000 consumed the beverages. Likewise, the higher the level of education, the greater the percentage of adults in the cohort who had consumed an alcoholic beverage, while the incidence of consumption decreased as age increased. A nearly equal percentage of men and women consumed alcohol, 66 and 61%, respectively, when averaged over the two years. Pertaining to race and ethnicity, 68% of non-Hispanic white adults, 59% of Hispanic adults, and 50% of non-Hispanic black adults consumed alcohol. Another source, The 2023 Silicon Valley Bank Wine Report, states data from the Wine Market Council: 28% of consumers were "abstainer ," which "has increased 4 percentage points since the 2017 survey." 18% were "core wine drinker " who "drink wine at least once a week," which decreased from 21% in 2017. 15% were "marginal" who "prefer wine…and consume wine at least every two to three months… wine consumers who drink wine one to three times a month," which decreased from 19% in 2017. The remaining consume "alcohol, not wine" (29%) or are "infrequent alcohol" consumers (10%). Alcoholic beverage preferences and purchases When asked to indicate their beverage category of choice, 30% of consumers preferred liquor, 31% wine, and 35% beer. Another source, IRI, reports that 16% of alcoholic beverage consumers drink beer exclusively, 13% drink only wine, and 11% only spirits. Consumption of more than one category is as follows: Beer and wine, 13%, Beer and spirits, 12%, Wine and spirits, 9%, and All three types, 27%. When segmented based on consumption frequency, for consumers between ages 21 and 39 years, Wine Opinions found the following: Half (51%) of those who drank beer consumed the beverage "weekly or more often," 24% consumed the beverage 2-3 times a month," 8% "about once a month," and the remaining 17% consumed beer "less often or never." For wine and spirits, the percentage of consumers who drank the beverages at each reported frequency was similar: 30% of those who drank the beverages consumed them "weekly or more often," a third consumed the beverages "2-3 times a month," 16% "about once a month," and 21% of wine drinkers and 20% of those who drank spirits consumed them "less often or never." Those who consumed beer on a weekly, or more frequent, basis were more likely to be males, weekly wine consumers were more likely to be female, and "consumption of spirits is even by gender."
NYSE:SAMLong
by noam_chom
GBP/USD rises ahead of UK retail salesThe British pound has extended its gains on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2772, up 0.32%. The UK will wrap up a busy week with retail sales on Friday. The July report is expected to show a decline in consumer spending. Headline retail sales are expected to fall by 0.5% after a 0.7% gain in May and core retail sales are projected to decline by 0.7% after a 0.8% increase in May. The June numbers were higher than expected despite high inflation, helped by record-hot weather. Will the July data also surprise to the upside? The UK consumer has been grappling with the highest inflation in the G7 club, which means shoppers are getting less for their money. This has dampened consumption, a key driver of the economy. Energy prices are lower, thanks to the energy price cap, but food inflation continues to soar and was 17.4% y/y in June. Consumer confidence has been mired deep in negative territory and the GfK consumer confidence index, which will be released later today, is expected at -29, almost unchanged from the previous release of -30 points. The Bank of England would like to follow some of the other major central banks that are in a pause phase, but the grim inflation picture may force the BoE to keep raising interest rates, which could tip the weak economy into a recession. Wage growth jumped to 7.8% in the three months to June, up from 7.5% in the previous period. In July, headline CPI fell to 6.9%, down sharply from 7.9%, but core CPI remains sticky, and was unchanged at 6.9%. The data points to a wage-price spiral which could impede the BoE's efforts to curb inflation. The Federal Reserve remains concerned about high inflation and said that additional rate hikes might be needed, according to the minutes of the July meeting. At the meeting, the Fed raised rates by 0.25%, a move that was widely anticipated. Most members "continued to see significant upside risks to inflation, which could require further tightening of monetary policy". At the same, time, members expressed uncertainty over the future rate path since there were signs that inflationary pressures could be easing. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2787. The next resistance line is 1.2879  1.2726 and 1.2634 are providing support
by OANDA
GBP/USD pushes higher as inflation drops to 6.8%The British pound has posted considerable gains on Wednesday. In the North session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2754, up 0.39%. The UK released the July inflation report today and the readings were a mixed bag. Headline CPI dropped to 6.8% y/y, a sharp drop from the 7.9% gain in June and matching the consensus estimate. The decline was certainly welcome news but the driver of the downswing was a sharp drop in fuel prices. Core CPI, which excludes energy and food, remained unchanged in July at 6.9% and above the estimate of 6.8%. The core rate rose 0.3% m/m in July, up slightly from the July reading of 0.2%, which was also the estimate. There was some good news in the inflation report as headline CPI declined by 0.4% m/m in July, compared to +0.1% in June and very close to the consensus estimate of -0.5%. Still, the fact that core CPI remains elevated and sticky provides support for the hawks at the Bank of England who believe that rates must rise further in order to curb inflation. The inflation report comes on the heels of a soft UK employment report on Tuesday. The data revealed that the tight labour market is finally cooling, which would ordinarily be positive news for the Bank of England. The one glaring exception to the soft numbers was wage growth, which jumped to a record 7.8%, up from 7.5% and above the consensus estimate of 7.3%. The increase in wage growth is indicative of a wage-price spiral which will hamper the BoE's efforts to curb inflation. The US released a robust retail sales report on Tuesday, giving a boost to the US dollar as speculation rises that the Fed may not be done with the current rate-tightening cycle. Headline retail sales rose 0.7% m/m in July, but core retail sales stole the show with a massive 1% gain up from an upwardly revised 0.4% in June. Consumer spending is picking up, which could complicate the Fed's plan to ease up on rates and guide the economy to a soft landing. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2726. The next resistance line is 1.2787  1.2634 and 1.2573 are providing support
Long
by OANDA
GBP/USD steady ahead of jobs dataThe British pound is quiet at the start of the week. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2701, up 0.05%. The UK releases key employment numbers on Tuesday and the data is expected to show that the UK labour market remains tight. The economy is expected to have created 50,000 jobs in the three months to June. That number is down from 125,000 previously, but unemployment claims are expected to drop by 7,300, down from a gain of 25,700 previously. Most importantly, wage growth including bonuses is expected to jump to 7.3% in the three months to May, compared to 6.9% in the previous three months. A jump in wage growth will not be welcome news for the Bank of England, which has had limited success in its battle to rein in inflation. Wage growth has been elevated due to high inflation and the tight labour market and an acceleration in wages will support a rate hike at the September meeting. The BoE has raised rates to 5.25%, but inflation has fallen more slowly than expected and is currently at 7.9%, the worst in the G-7. Over in the US, the markets are widely expecting the Fed to pause at the September 20th meeting. That will allow the markets to focus on key releases and try to determine if the economy is too strong, which could mean further rate hikes late in the year. Retail sales, which will be released on Tuesday, will provide a snapshot of whether consumers are still spending despite inflation and rising interest rates. Both the headline and core rates are expected to rise by 0.4% in July after a 0.2% gain in June. GBP/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 1.2726. The next resistance line is 1.2787  1.2634 and 1.2573 are providing support
by OANDA
ES Levels - CGG Newsletter (08/13-18/2023)Upside: 4478 → 4500 → 4519 → 4542 → 4566 Downside 4459 → 4447 → 4422 → 4400 Technical Analysis: ES tested a breakdown of a Long GP from 4461-4470, but bounced to close the Friday down only -0.1%. We want to see if ES can hold above last week's lows, if not, I could see a test below in the 4447 area where we should start to see buyers come in. This area would be crucial for us to hold this week as the bullish trendline we made from this year's March lows sits right in that area. I lean bullish throughout the week as long as we hold that trendline as support into the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium which starts next week, August 24-26. I would expect some bullish movement to send us back to at least 4566, which was a strong daily level which also coincides with the SHORT GP that was just made from July's high to the low made on Friday.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by peterjames_6
AUD/USD rebounds on stronger inflation releaseThe Australian dollar has started the week with strong gains. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6708, up 0.91%. The Aussie has rebounded after falling 1.25% last week. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday and is expected to maintain the cash rate at 4.10%. The past two rate meetings have been close calls and that could be the case at Tuesday's meeting. The money markets, however, are squarely leaning towards a pause, with only a 14% chance of a hike, according to the ASX RBA Rate Tracker. Investors are basing expectations for a second straight pause on lower inflation and weaker retail sales. Both headline and core CPI eased in the second quarter, as inflation appears to be heading in the right direction. Retail sales surprised on the downside with a -0.8% reading in June, erasing the 0.8% gain in May and missing the consensus estimate of 0.0%. The RBA could surprise the markets with a hike, as inflation has fallen to 6% but is double the RBA's upper band of its 1%-3% range. As well, the labour market remains tight and the central bank is concerned that could lead to higher wages which means an increase in inflation. Tuesday's meeting will be the second to last for Governor Lowe, who may want to deliver another hike or two before his watch ends, in a bid to push inflation closer to the RBA's target. The RBA will release updated economic forecasts at the meeting, and investors will be especially interested in the inflation projections. The Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge jumped 0.8% in July, rebounding from 0.1% in June and beating the consensus estimate of 0.5%. The upswing was somewhat surprising given last week's inflation report which showed a significant slowdown in inflation. The Australian dollar has moved sharply higher following the release. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6697. Above, there is resistance at 0.6771 0.6573 and 0.6499 is providing support
by OANDA
USD/CAD flat ahead of Canadian retail salesThe Canadian dollar is trading quietly on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3171, almost unchanged. It has been a busy week in the currency markets, with the US dollar rebounding and posting strong gains against the major currencies. The notable exception has been the Canadian dollar, which has held its own against the greenback this week. We could see some movement from USD/CAD in the North American session when Canada releases retail sales for May. We'll get a snapshot of consumer spending later on Friday, as Canada releases the May retail sales report. The markets are bracing for a slowdown in May after an impressive April release. The consensus estimate for retail sales is 0.5% in May, down from 1.1% in April. The core rate is expected to fall to 0.3%, compared to 1.3%. If the estimates prove to be accurate, it would point to the economy cooling down and provide support for the Bank of Canada to take a pause at the next meeting in September. The Federal Reserve meets on July 26th and investors have priced in a 0.25% hike as a near certainty. September is less clear, but the markets have priced another hike at just 16%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Are the markets being too dovish? Fed members have said that inflation isn't falling fast enough, which could mean that another hike is coming after July. Former Fed Chair Ben Bernake appeared to side with the market view, saying on Thursday that the July hike could be the final rate increase in the current tightening cycle. Bernanke said that the economy would slow further before the 2% inflation target was reached, but he expected any recession to be mild. There is resistance at 1.3205 and 1.3318 1.3106 and 1.2993 are providing support
by OANDA