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USD/CHF rises as Swiss retail sales fall, Swiss CPI nextThe Swiss franc has lost ground on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8835, up 0.59%. Thursday's Swiss retail sales for July looked awful, falling 2.3% m/m. This follows a revised gain of 1.5% in June. Market attention has now shifted to Swiss inflation, which will be released on Friday. Swiss inflation dropped to 1.6% in July, the lowest level since July 2022. The downtrend is expected to continue in August with a consensus estimate of 1.5%. Policy makers at the Swiss National Bank have to be pleased with the inflation rate. Switzerland boasts the lowest inflation rate in the developed world and both headline and core inflation are comfortably nestled in the central bank's inflation target range of 0%-2%. Still, the SNB remains wary about inflation, with concerns that increases in rents and electricity prices could push inflation back up to 2%. Food inflation remains high and rose from 5.1% to 5.3% in July. Unlike other major central banks, the SNB meets quarterly, which magnifies the significance of each rate decision. At the June meeting, the central bank raised rates to 1.75% from 1.50% and hinted that further hikes were coming. The SNB has projected inflation will hit 2.2% in 2023 and 2024, above its target. That means the SNB expects to have to continue raising rates, although, as is the case with many other central banks, the peak rate appears to be close at hand. In the US, unemployment claims dropped to 228,000 last week, down from a revised 232,000 and below the estimate of 236,000. All eyes will be on Friday's job report, with nonfarm payrolls expected to dip to 170,000, down from 187,000. The Fed's favourite inflation gauge, the PCE Price Index, increased in July by 0.2% for a second straight month, lower than the estimate of 0.3%. On an annualized basis, the PCE Price Index climbed 3.3% in July, up from 3.0% in June. Service prices rose by 0.4% in July, up from 0.3% from the previous month. The numbers indicate that the Fed's battle with inflation is far from over, and the final phase of pushing inflation down to 2% may prove the most difficult. USD/CHF is testing resistance at 0.8827. Above, there is resistance at 0.8895 0.8779 and 0.8711 are providing support
by OANDA
NZD/USD climbs ahead of retail salesThe New Zealand dollar has posted strong gains on Tuesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5959, up 0.55%. On the data calendar, New Zealand retail sales are expected to decline by 2.6% q/q in the second quarter, compared to -1.4% in Q1. The New Zealand dollar has gone on a dreadful slide since mid-July, falling as much as 500 basis points during that spell. The current downswing has been driven by weak global demand and jitters over China's economy, which is showing alarming signs of deterioration. Chinese releases have been pointing downward recently. Exports and imports have fallen, manufacturing activity is weak and the world's second-largest economy is experiencing deflation. Last week, Evergrande, a huge Chinese property developer, filed for bankruptcy in the United States, raising fears of contagion to other parts of the economy. It wasn't long ago that the Chinese 'miracle' was being touted as an economic powerhouse on the global stage, but now the world's second-largest economy is in deep trouble and is dragging down global growth. An interesting silver lining is that deflation in China could help lower inflation worldwide, which would be good news for the Fed, ECB and other central banks that are battling to push inflation lower. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has responded in recent days to the economic slowdown with some cuts to lending rates, but surprisingly, has not trimmed the five-year loan prime rate, which has a major impact on mortgages. The PBOC's lukewarm move to the economic crisis could mean China's economy will continue to sputter, and that is bad news for the New Zealand dollar, as China is by far New Zealand's largest trading partner. If Chinese releases continue to head lower, we can expect the New Zealand dollar to continue losing ground. NZD/USD has pushed above resistance at 0.5941 and is putting pressure on resistance at 0.5978 There is support at 0.5885 and close by at 0.5848
by OANDA
Craft Beer Seltzer Alcohol Barometer: Sam Adam's Boston Beer Co.Alcohol consumption When averaged over two years, 2021-2022, 63% of U.S. adults aged 18 and older consumed alcohol. Gallup, Inc. indicates that "the drinking rate ticks up to 65% when narrowed to adults of legal drinking age" of 21. When segmented based on demographic characteristics: Eighty percent of adults, 18 and older, living in households with annual incomes of $100,000 or more consumed alcohol in 2021/2022. Only 49% of those living in a household with an annual income of less than $40,000 consumed the beverages. Likewise, the higher the level of education, the greater the percentage of adults in the cohort who had consumed an alcoholic beverage, while the incidence of consumption decreased as age increased. A nearly equal percentage of men and women consumed alcohol, 66 and 61%, respectively, when averaged over the two years. Pertaining to race and ethnicity, 68% of non-Hispanic white adults, 59% of Hispanic adults, and 50% of non-Hispanic black adults consumed alcohol. Another source, The 2023 Silicon Valley Bank Wine Report, states data from the Wine Market Council: 28% of consumers were "abstainer ," which "has increased 4 percentage points since the 2017 survey." 18% were "core wine drinker " who "drink wine at least once a week," which decreased from 21% in 2017. 15% were "marginal" who "prefer wine…and consume wine at least every two to three months… wine consumers who drink wine one to three times a month," which decreased from 19% in 2017. The remaining consume "alcohol, not wine" (29%) or are "infrequent alcohol" consumers (10%). Alcoholic beverage preferences and purchases When asked to indicate their beverage category of choice, 30% of consumers preferred liquor, 31% wine, and 35% beer. Another source, IRI, reports that 16% of alcoholic beverage consumers drink beer exclusively, 13% drink only wine, and 11% only spirits. Consumption of more than one category is as follows: Beer and wine, 13%, Beer and spirits, 12%, Wine and spirits, 9%, and All three types, 27%. When segmented based on consumption frequency, for consumers between ages 21 and 39 years, Wine Opinions found the following: Half (51%) of those who drank beer consumed the beverage "weekly or more often," 24% consumed the beverage 2-3 times a month," 8% "about once a month," and the remaining 17% consumed beer "less often or never." For wine and spirits, the percentage of consumers who drank the beverages at each reported frequency was similar: 30% of those who drank the beverages consumed them "weekly or more often," a third consumed the beverages "2-3 times a month," 16% "about once a month," and 21% of wine drinkers and 20% of those who drank spirits consumed them "less often or never." Those who consumed beer on a weekly, or more frequent, basis were more likely to be males, weekly wine consumers were more likely to be female, and "consumption of spirits is even by gender."
NYSE:SAMLong
by noam_chom
GBP/USD rises ahead of UK retail salesThe British pound has extended its gains on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2772, up 0.32%. The UK will wrap up a busy week with retail sales on Friday. The July report is expected to show a decline in consumer spending. Headline retail sales are expected to fall by 0.5% after a 0.7% gain in May and core retail sales are projected to decline by 0.7% after a 0.8% increase in May. The June numbers were higher than expected despite high inflation, helped by record-hot weather. Will the July data also surprise to the upside? The UK consumer has been grappling with the highest inflation in the G7 club, which means shoppers are getting less for their money. This has dampened consumption, a key driver of the economy. Energy prices are lower, thanks to the energy price cap, but food inflation continues to soar and was 17.4% y/y in June. Consumer confidence has been mired deep in negative territory and the GfK consumer confidence index, which will be released later today, is expected at -29, almost unchanged from the previous release of -30 points. The Bank of England would like to follow some of the other major central banks that are in a pause phase, but the grim inflation picture may force the BoE to keep raising interest rates, which could tip the weak economy into a recession. Wage growth jumped to 7.8% in the three months to June, up from 7.5% in the previous period. In July, headline CPI fell to 6.9%, down sharply from 7.9%, but core CPI remains sticky, and was unchanged at 6.9%. The data points to a wage-price spiral which could impede the BoE's efforts to curb inflation. The Federal Reserve remains concerned about high inflation and said that additional rate hikes might be needed, according to the minutes of the July meeting. At the meeting, the Fed raised rates by 0.25%, a move that was widely anticipated. Most members "continued to see significant upside risks to inflation, which could require further tightening of monetary policy". At the same, time, members expressed uncertainty over the future rate path since there were signs that inflationary pressures could be easing. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2787. The next resistance line is 1.2879  1.2726 and 1.2634 are providing support
by OANDA
GBP/USD pushes higher as inflation drops to 6.8%The British pound has posted considerable gains on Wednesday. In the North session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2754, up 0.39%. The UK released the July inflation report today and the readings were a mixed bag. Headline CPI dropped to 6.8% y/y, a sharp drop from the 7.9% gain in June and matching the consensus estimate. The decline was certainly welcome news but the driver of the downswing was a sharp drop in fuel prices. Core CPI, which excludes energy and food, remained unchanged in July at 6.9% and above the estimate of 6.8%. The core rate rose 0.3% m/m in July, up slightly from the July reading of 0.2%, which was also the estimate. There was some good news in the inflation report as headline CPI declined by 0.4% m/m in July, compared to +0.1% in June and very close to the consensus estimate of -0.5%. Still, the fact that core CPI remains elevated and sticky provides support for the hawks at the Bank of England who believe that rates must rise further in order to curb inflation. The inflation report comes on the heels of a soft UK employment report on Tuesday. The data revealed that the tight labour market is finally cooling, which would ordinarily be positive news for the Bank of England. The one glaring exception to the soft numbers was wage growth, which jumped to a record 7.8%, up from 7.5% and above the consensus estimate of 7.3%. The increase in wage growth is indicative of a wage-price spiral which will hamper the BoE's efforts to curb inflation. The US released a robust retail sales report on Tuesday, giving a boost to the US dollar as speculation rises that the Fed may not be done with the current rate-tightening cycle. Headline retail sales rose 0.7% m/m in July, but core retail sales stole the show with a massive 1% gain up from an upwardly revised 0.4% in June. Consumer spending is picking up, which could complicate the Fed's plan to ease up on rates and guide the economy to a soft landing. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2726. The next resistance line is 1.2787  1.2634 and 1.2573 are providing support
Long
by OANDA
GBP/USD steady ahead of jobs dataThe British pound is quiet at the start of the week. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2701, up 0.05%. The UK releases key employment numbers on Tuesday and the data is expected to show that the UK labour market remains tight. The economy is expected to have created 50,000 jobs in the three months to June. That number is down from 125,000 previously, but unemployment claims are expected to drop by 7,300, down from a gain of 25,700 previously. Most importantly, wage growth including bonuses is expected to jump to 7.3% in the three months to May, compared to 6.9% in the previous three months. A jump in wage growth will not be welcome news for the Bank of England, which has had limited success in its battle to rein in inflation. Wage growth has been elevated due to high inflation and the tight labour market and an acceleration in wages will support a rate hike at the September meeting. The BoE has raised rates to 5.25%, but inflation has fallen more slowly than expected and is currently at 7.9%, the worst in the G-7. Over in the US, the markets are widely expecting the Fed to pause at the September 20th meeting. That will allow the markets to focus on key releases and try to determine if the economy is too strong, which could mean further rate hikes late in the year. Retail sales, which will be released on Tuesday, will provide a snapshot of whether consumers are still spending despite inflation and rising interest rates. Both the headline and core rates are expected to rise by 0.4% in July after a 0.2% gain in June. GBP/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 1.2726. The next resistance line is 1.2787  1.2634 and 1.2573 are providing support
by OANDA
ES Levels - CGG Newsletter (08/13-18/2023)Upside: 4478 → 4500 → 4519 → 4542 → 4566 Downside 4459 → 4447 → 4422 → 4400 Technical Analysis: ES tested a breakdown of a Long GP from 4461-4470, but bounced to close the Friday down only -0.1%. We want to see if ES can hold above last week's lows, if not, I could see a test below in the 4447 area where we should start to see buyers come in. This area would be crucial for us to hold this week as the bullish trendline we made from this year's March lows sits right in that area. I lean bullish throughout the week as long as we hold that trendline as support into the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium which starts next week, August 24-26. I would expect some bullish movement to send us back to at least 4566, which was a strong daily level which also coincides with the SHORT GP that was just made from July's high to the low made on Friday.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by peterjames_6
AUD/USD rebounds on stronger inflation releaseThe Australian dollar has started the week with strong gains. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6708, up 0.91%. The Aussie has rebounded after falling 1.25% last week. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday and is expected to maintain the cash rate at 4.10%. The past two rate meetings have been close calls and that could be the case at Tuesday's meeting. The money markets, however, are squarely leaning towards a pause, with only a 14% chance of a hike, according to the ASX RBA Rate Tracker. Investors are basing expectations for a second straight pause on lower inflation and weaker retail sales. Both headline and core CPI eased in the second quarter, as inflation appears to be heading in the right direction. Retail sales surprised on the downside with a -0.8% reading in June, erasing the 0.8% gain in May and missing the consensus estimate of 0.0%. The RBA could surprise the markets with a hike, as inflation has fallen to 6% but is double the RBA's upper band of its 1%-3% range. As well, the labour market remains tight and the central bank is concerned that could lead to higher wages which means an increase in inflation. Tuesday's meeting will be the second to last for Governor Lowe, who may want to deliver another hike or two before his watch ends, in a bid to push inflation closer to the RBA's target. The RBA will release updated economic forecasts at the meeting, and investors will be especially interested in the inflation projections. The Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge jumped 0.8% in July, rebounding from 0.1% in June and beating the consensus estimate of 0.5%. The upswing was somewhat surprising given last week's inflation report which showed a significant slowdown in inflation. The Australian dollar has moved sharply higher following the release. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6697. Above, there is resistance at 0.6771 0.6573 and 0.6499 is providing support
by OANDA
USD/CAD flat ahead of Canadian retail salesThe Canadian dollar is trading quietly on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3171, almost unchanged. It has been a busy week in the currency markets, with the US dollar rebounding and posting strong gains against the major currencies. The notable exception has been the Canadian dollar, which has held its own against the greenback this week. We could see some movement from USD/CAD in the North American session when Canada releases retail sales for May. We'll get a snapshot of consumer spending later on Friday, as Canada releases the May retail sales report. The markets are bracing for a slowdown in May after an impressive April release. The consensus estimate for retail sales is 0.5% in May, down from 1.1% in April. The core rate is expected to fall to 0.3%, compared to 1.3%. If the estimates prove to be accurate, it would point to the economy cooling down and provide support for the Bank of Canada to take a pause at the next meeting in September. The Federal Reserve meets on July 26th and investors have priced in a 0.25% hike as a near certainty. September is less clear, but the markets have priced another hike at just 16%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Are the markets being too dovish? Fed members have said that inflation isn't falling fast enough, which could mean that another hike is coming after July. Former Fed Chair Ben Bernake appeared to side with the market view, saying on Thursday that the July hike could be the final rate increase in the current tightening cycle. Bernanke said that the economy would slow further before the 2% inflation target was reached, but he expected any recession to be mild. There is resistance at 1.3205 and 1.3318 1.3106 and 1.2993 are providing support
by OANDA
GBP/USD edges lower ahead of UK inflationThe British pound has edged lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3038, down 0.27%. The UK is lagging behind other major economies in the fight to curb inflation. Will Wednesday's inflation report bring some good news? In May, CPI remained stuck at 8.7% y/y but is expected to ease to 8.2% in June. The core rate is expected to remain steady at 7.1%. On a monthly basis, headline CPI is expected to fall from 0.7% to 0.4% and the core rate is projected to slow to 0.4%, down from 0.8%. The inflation report could be a game-changer with regard to the Bank of  England's meeting on August 3rd. The BoE delivered an oversize 50-basis point hike in June and will have to decide between a modest 25-bp hike or another 50-bp increase at the August meeting. Last week's employment report pointed to wage growth picking up, which moved the dial in favour of a 50-bp increase. US retail sales for June provided a mixed spending picture. Headline retail sales rose just 0.2% m/m, below the 0.5% consensus estimate and the upwardly revised May reading of 0.5%. Core retail sales were much stronger at 0.6%, above the 0.3% consensus and the upwardly revised May release of 0.3%. The data points to resilience in consumer spending although momentum has slowed. The retail sales report did not change expectations with regard to rate policy, with the Fed expected to raise rates in July and take a pause in September. The Fed has tightened by some 500 basis points in the current rate-hike cycle and this has curbed inflation, which has fallen to 3%. Nevertheless, the Fed remains concerned that the solid US economy and a tight labour market will make it difficult to hit the 2% inflation target, and the Fed hasn't given any hints that it will wrap up its tightening in July, although the money markets appear to think this is the case. GBP/USD has support at 1.2995 and 1.2906 There is resistance at 1.3077 and 1.3116
by OANDA
1
gold trying to hold between 1961-1963 on bullish#XAUUSD price made a retraced back to 1959-1963 today which is now forming base on low volume, the price have pull back between trends and will still head down below 1956-1952 limit again but the price entry have hold much which is making the pair to bullish but now the charts is a retracment form. We may expect a correction bearish movement which can head more down but now let's follow on gold sell at 1962.48 but gold has a low bullish at 1965.90 which can break or make decline at heading down.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by berserkafx
More Downside for DXY?Last week's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release of 3% (Forecast: 3.1% Previous: 4%) indicates that inflation growth has slowed significantly, likely due to the compounded effect of aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. This slowdown in inflation growth has also improved market sentiment that the Fed Funds Rate has reached its peak at 5.25% and the likelihood for further rate hikes has diminished. With the DXY breaking below the round number level of 100 and reaching a low, last seen in April 2022, further downside can be expected. However, watch out for the possibility of stronger-than-expected US retail sales data. A sustained rebound is unlikely, with the 100.85 resistance level likely to cap the upside potential. Confirmation of further downside could be signaled if the price breaks below 99.45, with the price likely to trade toward the next key support level at 97.75.
TVC:DXYShort
by JinDao_Tai
2
AUD/USD pares losses ahead of RBA rate decisionThe Australian dollar is showing some movement right off the bat on Monday. AUD/USD fell as much as 70 pips in the Asian session but has recovered most of those losses. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6657 down 0.03%. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday, and it's a coin-toss as to whether the central bank will raise rates for a third straight time or will it take a pause. Traders have priced in a 52% chance of a pause, according to the ASX RBA rate tracker. Just one week ago, the odds of a pause were 70%, after May inflation declined more than expected. Headline CPI fell from 6.8% to 5.6%, its lowest level in 13 months. Core CPI eased to 6.1%, down from 6.7%. The split over what call the RBA will make on Tuesday is indicative of the case that can be made both for a hike and a pause. The drop in inflation is certainly welcome news, but the RBA wants inflation to fall faster, as it remains almost triple the target of 2%. Additional rate hikes would likely send inflation lower, but that would raise the risk of the economy tipping into a recession. The Australian economy has cooled down, but the labor market remains strong and consumer spending has been resilient, despite high inflation. Retail sales for May jumped 0.7% m/m, up from 0.0% in April and smashing the consensus of 0.1%. RBA members in favor of a hike can point to employment and retail sales data as evidence that the economy can withstand additional hikes. The RBA minutes, which can be considered a guide to its rate policy plans, might point to a pause at Tuesday's meeting. The April and May minutes were hawkish and the RBA raised rates after these releases. The June minutes were more dovish, sending the Australian dollar lower. Could that signal a pause? In the US, the week wrapped up with the PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator. In June, the index rose 0.1% m/m, down from 0.4% in May. This indicates that the disinflation process continues and traders have raised the probability of a July hike to 88%, up from 74% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. 0.6659 is a weak resistance line. Above, there is resistance at 0.6722 0.6597 and 0.6534 are providing support
by OANDA
EURUSD | STILL BULLISH AT THE MOMENTHello Traders, price perfectly went with yesterday's prediction, tho entry was not precise but trade went well as you can see above. Today we have retail Sales releasing and also the US Crude Oil report with consensus that might not really be in favour of the United States or enough impact to help. The area marked in triangle is where I think price could change or reverse in support the Euro around 1.06500, what do you think 🤔?
Long
by Forex_Sentralytic
1
EURUSD | STILL BULLISH FOR TODAYThe market went with yesterday's prediction as seen on the chart above. Today we have the Retail Sales Report releasing with a consensus that indicates that more goods have been sold in favour of the Euro In about 5hrs. I think that price will fall a little bit in respect to the 1hr 200 EMA and start to rise again to hit around 1.07450 before falling again. I'll still hold my position today and wait to see if euro might fall very later but for now, I support the pair.
Long
by Forex_Sentralytic
1
GPS jumped on mediocre earningsGAp, Inc had a little pop after mediocre earnings to break its downtrend. IT put in an engulfing bull candle to strike three smaller red candles. This could be considered a bullish sign. However, the trend down has been much of the year with two head and shoulders along the way. There has been no significant net accumulation of stock. I suppose there was a volume spike of buyers thinking they were seeing the bottom. I do not think that the bottom is in until there is seller exhaustion. Price is below the POC line of the volume profile. I will not be convinced of a bottom until some net accumulation begins. I see the earnings pop as giving a better entry for a short and call it a pullback correction of the trend down and a great point to take a short trade.
GShort
by AwesomeAvani
2
USD/JPY punches above 140, Tokyo issues warningUSD/JPY is showing little movement on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 140.17, down 0.19%. The Japanese yen continues to underperform and has plunged 2.8% in May. The yen fell as low as 140.93 on Monday, its lowest level since November 21st. The sharp depreciation is raising concerns in Tokyo and Masota Kanda, a top official at the Ministry of Finance (MOF) weighed in on Tuesday. Kanda said officials were not focussing on particular exchange rate levels but said they were monitoring the forex market and "would respond appropriately". Kanda's veiled warning should not be ignored, as he blindsided the markets back in December when the MoF intervened in the currency markets in order to prop up the yen. Japanese releases have been solid, reinforcing speculation that inflation isn't going anywhere and the Bank of Japan may have to tighten policy. Service and manufacturing PMIs showed slight expansion last week and retail sales and industrial production will be released on Wednesday. Retail sales are expected to remain strong at 7.0% y/y in April, following a prior reading of 7.1%. Industrial production is projected to improve to 1.5% m/m in April, up from 1.1% in March. President Biden and Republican Speaker McCarthy have reached an agreement in principle on the debt ceiling, after weeks of brinkmanship between Republicans and Democrats. The deal must be approved in both houses of Congress, which is expected to happen despite grumblings from some Republicans. The weeks of uncertainty prior to the deal weighed on risk appetite and the big winners have been US Treasury yields and the US dollar. USD/JPY has support at 139.61 and 138.50 There is resistance at 140.88 and 141.73
by OANDA
1
GBP/USD edges lower, markets eye UK retail salesGBP/USD continues its downswing. The pound is trading at 1.2340, down 0.20% and is at a one-month low against the US dollar. The UK releases retail sales for April on Friday. On an annualized basis, the headline and core readings are expected to decline by 2.8% in April, which would indicate that UK consumers continue to hold tight onto the purse strings. Consumers are having a tough time with the cost of living crisis, with inflation at 8.3% and a weak reading could weigh on the pound. The US debt ceiling impasse remains unresolved, with the White House warning that the US could default on its debt on June 1st if no deal is reached in Congress. The markets are jittery and US 10-year Treasury yields have jumped to 3.75, up 1.1% today. The US dollar has also benefited from the debt ceiling crisis as investors have snapped up safe-haven assets. On Wednesday, Fitch Ratings put the top-ranked United States sovereign credit rating on "rating watch negative" due to the danger of a US debt ceiling default and we can expect market risk sentiment to continue falling as we move closer to June without a deal in place. The FOMC minutes indicated that the Fed remains unclear over future rate policy. At the May meeting, some members said there was a need for further increases as inflation was not falling fast enough. Other members argued that the economy was cooling and there was no need for more tightening. All the members agreed that inflation remains too high and the vote to raise rates by 25 basis points at the May meeting was unanimous. So what's next? The Fed meets on June 14th and appears to be leaning towards a pause in rate increases. The odds of a pause are currently 62%, versus 37% for a 25-bp hike, according to CME's FedWatch. Just a month ago, the probabilities were 70% for a pause, 8% for a 25-bp hike and 22% chance for a rate cut of 25 basis points. A hawkish Fed and solid US data have put to rest market speculation of a rate cut next month. Speaking of solid economic data, US Preliminary GDP rose 1.3% y/y in the first quarter, up from 1.3% in Q4 2020, which was also the estimate. On a quarterly basis, GDP climbed 4.2%, above the estimate of 4.0% and after a Q4 gain of 4.0%. Unemployment claims rose to 229,000, following a previous reading of 225,000, which was downwardly revised from 242,000. This easily beat the estimate of 245,000. The Fed will not be thrilled with these numbers, as it needs the economy to cool in order to wrap up the current rate-tightening cycle. GBP/USD tested support at 1.2375 in the European session. Below, there is support at 1.2307 1.2461 and 1.2529 are the next resistance levels
by OANDA
2