Retailsales
SHOP to test 1108 soonShopify is flying after breaking through it's symmetrical triangle the other day and also because of the 21% increase in online sales(highest ever) on Black Friday. SHOP looks to have resistance at 1058 and 1108 but with this momentum looks to break through 1058 soon. With this time of consolidation this may be the breakout moment much higher......
NZDUSD Short SetupHello Traders
As you can see in the chart above, the price has formed a rising wedge, and I'm expecting a blast fall for NZD.
As of tonight, NZD will release its retail sales statics, and it is expected to be bearish too.
On the other hand, I see a Bearish divergence on RSI.
It is possible too that price forms a double top pattern too.
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What is your opinion? Comment below.
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Stocks Anticipating Retail SalesStocks caught a lift at the 0.500 Fibonacci exactly as we said they would. Hopefully some of you took advantage of this trade. Currently, they are facing resistance by a collection of levels aroudn the 0.786 Fibonacci level near the technically and psychologically significant 3500 level. This is likely to continue to provide resistance so watch for a small rejection before the S&P is able to punch through. Consider buying back at the levels below. It is unlikely we will have any significant moves in stocks today, since it is Friday, but retail sales at 8:30 AM EST could move it if the numbers are significant. The downside has been priced in already in virtually all macro data indicators. The surprise would be a really good beat to the upside. Otherwise, expect stocks to establish a range for a bit. The Kovach OBV suggests lackluster bull momentum.
EURJPY - Reversal Zone ReachedI am a reversal from the strong flip level on EURJPY at around 1.2700.
I am wary the price could find support at the 124.200 level and continue in its recent bullishness. Euro was very strong yesterday following positive Retail Sales news during the London session.
However, overall the price in EURJPY is downtrending and we could see a drop to the September low if selling momentum can sustain.
GU going short after the support breakoutRetail going down ,support break will bring about a downtrend hopefully to the next support
NB: only hop on the trade after breaking out of the demand zone .
Dax daily: 16 Jul 2020Yet another great prediction. If you've read our analysis yesterday and traded it accordingly, we congratulate you for great profits. As we predicted, the price had an initial push lower to closed the gap, which correlated with past VPOC. This was the level which had double significance for buyers who stepped in to take the price to 12 882 and even broke out this resistance. This one functioned to suppress further bullish momentum and Dax quickly returned to retest its importance. The price was oscillating up and down, just to close the day on the same level and formed the VPOC slightly above it.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 882, 13 119
Support: 12 592
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
13:45 CEST - ECB Main Refinancing Rate + Monetary Policy Statement
14:30 CEST - ECB Press Conference
14:30 CEST - USA - Retail Sales & Unemployment claims
Today's session hypothesis
Today's session opened below 12 882. Market participants will most likely attempt to retest yesterday's close as it correlates with the S/R zone and the VPOC too. This is the area where we'll need to monitor the price action to further establish directional bias. Dax is slowly aiming higher and if the continuation prevails, our bullish target lays up at 13 119. Stay on alert as we have a day packed with fundamental releases and these could easily rock the boat.
So... What is next? Shortest recession in play?Stock market - Against all odds, S&P index has risen almost 32% since hitting a low for the year on March 23. The fact that it happened after a ferocious plunge of 35% between Feb. 20 and March 23, the most devastating sell-off since the great depression, made the feat even more remarkable.
As a matter of fact, the market posted its best quarter since 1998, with Nasdaq leading the way by soaring 30.6% for the quarter, the most since 1999.
Some speculated that the fast recovery was due to the big outflow of money from the fixed-income market into the stock market as emerging market fails to meet its debt obligation.
Others credited young investors (medium age of 31) on Robinhood (3 millions user added 2020, 13 millions total) with stock market's spectacular rally.
I personally doubt that the combined purchasing power of all Robinhood users is strong enough to sway the stock market.
Nonetheless, the stock market performance is not representative of the entire economy as there are more than 30 millions small & mid-sized company not listed on major U.S stock exchanges
GDP - What is even more incredible about the stock market's recovery is that it all happened after various sources estimated the GDP contraction to be around 30% to 50% in second quarter
Recently, Fed and policymakers projected the economy to shrink 6.5% (medium projection) in 2020 and the unemployment rate to be 9.3% at the end of the year
Corporate earning - According to data from S&P Capital IQ, 40 percent of the S&P 500, about 200 companies, have withdrawn their guidance and declined to make EPS estimate in 2020.
This lack of guidance has caused a lot of problem for the prediction of corporate earning.
A recent analysis by CNBC earnings editor Robert Hum showed enormous differences at historical level between the high and low estimates for the largest stocks in the S&P 500.
According to numbers compiled by the data provider FactSet, second-quarter profits will fall more than 40 percent.
Refinitiv is projecting about a 43% drop in second-quarter earnings.
Expect to get a more clear picture of corporate earnings around mid-July as banks release their corporate earnings.
Even though the stock market is reflecting more of future sentiment than current economic condition, the speed of its recovery seems to indicate that most investors believe that not only will the market erase all the losses in 2020, but also it will quickly resume the long-term growth trend equals that of 2019, which seems highly unlikely to me.
Again, it is hard not to notice the massive distortion between the stock market's performance and corporate earning.
Unemployment - Initially, the hope is that most temporary layoffs would not turn into permanent job loss. However, as lockdown extends, many furloughed employees are at the risk of becoming unemployed as more and more small businesses going out of the business.
Roughly 20 million Americans are currently receiving unemployment benefits and the insured unemployment rate is still high at 13.4%.
BLS said that discrepancy in unemployment # due to "misclassification" has been adjusted accordingly. An alternative measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and the underemployed fell to 18% from 21.2%.
Overall, better than expected unemployment # and steadily declining initial claim and continuous claim # have painted a much better picture for the labor market.
However, unemployment remains at historic levels. Output and employment remain far below their pre-pandemic levels, according to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
Pandemic - WHO reported around 180,000 new coronavirus cases last Sunday, the single-largest increase since the pandemic began, with two thirds of new cases coming from the Americas. Around half of the 50 U.S. states were also reporting a rise in new coronavirus cases, most notable in southern states that were previously spared from the Covid-19 ravage.
On Tuesday, United States recorded the biggest single-day rise in new cases since the pandemic began.
According to Bloomberg report, most experts believe a vaccine won’t be ready until next year.
Other factors -
Trade war with China and upcoming election...
#1. Median existing-home price last month was $284,600, up 2.3% from May 2019.
#2. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.13% for the week ending June 18. Mortgage rates have drop to another record low.
#3. The number of Americans applying for home mortgages has hit an 11-year high.
#4. An index measuring homes in contract to sell, or pending sales, jumped by a record 44% in May.
#5. A record spike in U.S. retail sales, though the recovery happened after a huge dive of retail sales a month earlier.
#6. PMI has surged sharply after a huge plunge since the pandemic started. It is possible that the # is skewed by the lack of small business participation and the effect of China re-opened its economy ahead of other major economy.
I believe most current home buyers are not heavily impacted during this economic downturn and their purchase decisions are probably not indicative of the economic recovery.
Shortest recession is made possible because this economic crash was driven by the uncertainty of pandemic rather than economic fundamentals? I don't know. But if you only look at real estate and stock market, it surely seems so.
ridethepig | NZD Retail Sales FlowWith retail sales out in NZ tonight it is a good time for a short-term flow update. It to me seems a poor choice of moment to advance for bulls, extending the lows after a retest of the 0.6645/60 sell zone with a weak print tonight makes more sense to me. This would be in accordance with the needs of the flow.
The 2020 macro map takes on the retrace leg, but another sweep of the lows would be a more reliable guardian. Here recommending longs into the 0.6645/60 resistance as a good opportunity to sell the headline and mount a last attack for the penetration of the lows. We will update the chart should we see the highs visited today.
Good luck all those trading Retail sales, after the distortion around last months print it is highly likely in my books that we see a soft undershoot tonight. As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc.
Could the Weekly Data Break the NZD/USD Range?Later this evening around midnight New Zealand will publish quarterly Retail sales report.The New Zealand Dollar traded mostly flat last week as investors seemed to shrug off the latest developments over the trade deal. Following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s surprise decision to keep monetary policy unchanged at its last meeting, the data will be watched for clues as to whether additional rate cuts are likely in the near-term.
If the upcoming data tips the balance more in favor of another rate cut, the kiwi will be unable to break past immediate resistance at around $0.6428, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the July-October decline. Failure to clear this area would bring an end to the latest upswing and will push the kiwi back towards its 50-day SMA just above the 23.6% Fibonacci at $0.6340. A drop below this key support would lead bears focus to October’s 4-year low of $0.6204.
However, a positive Retail sales report could be the boost for NZD. The pairs needs to breakout the $0.6428 today's high and will aim for the 50% Fibonacci, which sits close to the $0.65 handle.
Kiwi traders also should be watching a speech by RBNZ Governor Orr on Wednesday and the report for ANZ Business Confidence on Thursday. Thursday is also U.S. bank holiday so expect trading volume to taper off throughout the week.
Holiday seasonality play on RETAIL- XRT LONG IDEAXRT is the retail ETF and every year we get a burst around the holiday season if you're patient.
Over the past three years, starting the beginning of November into December and even through some of January XRT and the Retail sector popped higher off the increased sales through the holiday season. Even last year while we experienced a correction to bear market in the market, the XRT long play had a chance for profitability by $5-6. This time around we expect a move higher from $43 up to $47 even $50 to capture the retail seasonality. The year to date POC is holding good support unless we see a strong market reversal in the last month of the year, the trade has potential.
EURO Vs Loonie (EUR/CAD) Trade Idea and Plan: Bullish biasEUR / CAD has developed higher lows connected by a longer-term upward trend line and also displays lower stochastic lows. This bullish divergence indicates a rebound may occur.
With little eye-catching improvements for leading indicators for the eurozone, in this session, I'm hoping to catch a quick bounce for the shared currency. On the flip side, there might be enough expectations for another dip in Canadian retail sales figures to keep the Loonie on a weak footing.
On top it all off, the resurfacing uncertainty surrounding trade talks between the U.S. and China could hold a veil on gains for commodity currencies and the dollar, reversing the euro may have chances in that case.
Pause in trade war shifts market focus on another dataA temporary truce in the trade war was announced. Well, of course, a “truce” is not the right word we prefer a “pause”. The appreciation of the renminbi, as well as the decline in the VIX Index, are further evidence of tensions easing in the financial markets.
Against this background, we again pay attention to the sale of gold. But we note that sales with the random points may turn out to be unprofitable, so we select the entry points carefully, taking into account at least an hour overbought and along daily maximum.
Recall that the dollar is still very strong, which is bothers Trump. And in itself, it is an opportunity for its sales in the foreign exchange market. But the markets are more interested in the Fed’s further actions - will the Central Bank cut the rate again&? What could spur the Fed on easing monetary policy? First of all, weak macroeconomic data. So today's retail sales data may well give rise to dollar sales.
Retail sales report is a monthly measurement of the retail industry. Monthly retail sales data is a chain indicator. That is, The report shows the total sales for the prior month. This specificity leads to the fact that chain indicators tend to fluctuate around the zero and after a strong growth period a decline period follows, and vice versa. So, over the last two months, US retail sales have been growing. To show better results this time too, the indicator must rise quite significantly concerning the three months periods. The US economy has been weak recently, there is a reason to expect weak data on retail sales. Since markets react not to the essence, but to the gossips, the outcome of the indicator in the negative zone (although this may be an increase relative the period of two months ) can trigger dollar sales. In this regard, today we will sell the dollar. First of all, against the pound.
Eurozone GDP grew by 0.2 %, however, industrial production decreased, and quite significantly (-1.6% m / m), which is the worst result over the last 3 years. China also showed weak industrial production data: plus 4.8% expected plus 5.8% (the minimum growth rate since 2002). Retail sales in Sino are also worse than expected.
GBPCAD 250 PIP TRADE - TARGET 1.66300-DAILY MORNING STAR GREAT BUY SIGNAL
-IF WE PUSH OUT OUT THE PURPLE RANGED CONSOLIDATION ZONE BREAK RETEST THE LONG WILL BE CONFIRMED .
-PINK WEEKLY TRENDLINE TOUCHED AND REJECTED
Fed U-turn, investors escape, catch-22 for RFMarkets actively discounted under the monetary policy turn in the United States. In this light, the current decline and weakness of the dollar are quite understandable. On the part of officials, comments about a possible rate cut sound more and more actively. In particular, recently the St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard, said that lowering the rate may be necessary to counter the risks of trade war. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said that the Central Bank is ready to lower rates. Well, and finally, yesterday Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the Central Bank is ready to "act in a suitable manner to support the expansion" of the economy.
Recall that the markets are confident that the rate will be reduced at least twice in 2019, while there is a non-zero probability that the rate will be reduced 4 (!) Times during the year.
Despite the formal reason for the optimism growth in the stock market, investors are escaping from the stock market. One of the reasons for the panic was the information from Reuters that the US Government might launch an antitrust investigation against Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google. Following the news, Facebook and Alphabet Inc shares fell by more than six percent, and Amazon shares fell by four and a half percent.
In this light, the behavior of Stanley Druckenmiller, one of the legendary Wall Street investors, seems quite logical. He sold all the shares from his portfolio (the proportion shares, in the portfolio structure, was over 90%).
Recall, the Reserve Bank of Australia reduced the interest rate to the lowest value in the history of 1.25%. Our recommendation for working with the Australian dollar against the background of such information is to look for points for its sales.
Yesterday was remembered by rather sad statistics on the UK. Retail sales literally collapsed by 3% at the end of May (the lowest value in the entire history of observations), and the index of business activity in the construction sector surely went below 50, indicating a decrease in economic activity.
Wednesday in terms of macroeconomic statistics will be more active. We are waiting for data on retail sales in the Eurozone, data on employment in the US from ADP (we recall, on Friday will be published official statistics on the US labor market, including data on the NFP), as well as data from a number of US business activity indices.
Bloomberg analysts recently published the results of a study which showed the unattainability of most plans of the Russian authorities in terms of economic growth and improvement of welfare in the country. The main conclusion is: Putin’s plans to double the GDP aren't meant to be. The Russian Federation in fact fell for the so-called "catch 22". In this case, it can be formulated as follows: to ensure economic growth above 3%, it is necessary to accomplish a number of smaller tasks, performance is possible only at a GDP growth rate above 3%. And the current growth rate equals 2%. That is, small goals will not be completed (the basic condition is not completed), which means that the main goal, growth above 3%, will not be achieved either.
In this regard, we recall the feasibility of selling the Russian ruble on any attempts to grow. Since the growth rate is below the world average - it is not even standing still, this is the lag and loss of competitive positions.
Our positions today: we are continuing to look for points for buying of the euro and the pound against the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen. In addition, we will sell the Australian dollar against the US dollar.
GBP/USD Technical analysisGBP/USD is in a descending channel pattern in the 1-hour chart.
On reaching its supportive trendline it bounced off with a strong bullish engulfing candle.
Hence we expect the pair to race towards the resistive trendline.
Abysmal Retail Sales, Bearish DivergenceBearish divergence on the Chaikin and the Fisher Transform, dangerous amount of momentum available if reality starts kicking in here. Falling volume giving an indication of uncertainty at these levels, to be expected. Be patient and watch how it behaves near the 100 VWMA. PPT is still active and will actively seek to eat shorts alive.
Retail sales sink 1.2% in December in the worst plunge in nine years
TGT, BBY Earnings: Retail Brick & Mortar Topping Patterns Target and Best Buy reported earnings today and their stock values fell, TGT worse than BBY. The retail brick and mortar stores are the last group to report each season. The ubiquitous AMZN has put most of this type of store at risk of total displacement as consumers prefer the ease and speed of online shopping over driving to a store.
Technical patterns are even more important in a downtrend as the 3 primary market participant groups that sell short are technically oriented rather than fundamentalist or emotional buyers or sellers. Study both weekly and daily charts before you choose stocks to sell short, in order to calculate potential support bounce levels, and to anticipate how far a stock can drop.
This is one of the newer topping formations that developed in the past few years as the market became fully automated for the Institutions.
Fundamentals Are Just As Important!Entered this trade on a pin bar / stop hunt that present itself yesterday morning. Entered on this pin bar and waited for news to hit. It was positive as suspected, my take profit was back down at previous structure and did actually push through this.
Wal-Mart WMT looks like it presents an opportunity to buy in at heavily discounted prices. To the tune of 20% off. Normally I would be interested in buying nearly anything that is 20% off.
Pull up this chart and look at it on the Weekly time frame. It appears as though our bearish trend might not be over and is just beginning.
Fundamentally I like Wal-Mart and I think that their entry into the meal kit service will present a great opportunity to increase store traffic.
Noticed large institutional buying of WMT in Q4 2017, and although positions are starting drown this likely appears to be a buy and hold opportunity.
I think the retail market will continue to grow in 2018 as we saw the highest retail sales growth in more than a decade (Q3 2017).
200 Pips Profit Opportunity on AUD/USDAfter the first official trading week of 2018, activities in the market are starting to pick up, and we are seeing volatility coming back.
We are seeing an ideal technical setup on AUD/USD.
In addition, we do have the US Core CPI and Core Retail Sales data coming in on Friday.
The release of these economic data might act as a potential catalyst to strengthen the US Dollar, potentially giving us a nice confluence for the short setup on AUD/USD.
On the AUD/USD H4 chart, price has been ‘crawling’ higher. This is a term that we use to describe price losing momentum as it continues to move higher.
We are also seeing a RSI divergence forming. Adding on to our technical confluence, price has also reached the key fibonacci area between the 100% to 123.6% extension.
All these gave us an ideal technical sell setup on the AUD/USD.
What we need is a potential catalyst to push price down impulsively; and we are expecting the catalyst to come from Friday’s US data.
Core CPI and Retail Sales are forecasted to come in at 0.2% and 0.4% respectively. Should the actual data come in higher than the forecast, we will have a strong reason to take the short trade on AUD/USD, potentially targeting 0.7641 – 0.7685 area.
DUMP THE EURO, BUY THE RAND-SHORT-13.10.2017Guys,
what's up, hope you nicked some pips this week. Well, it's Friday the 13th and if you got margin called, next week will be another cool week to boost your account. I have posted several posts at www.forex.today.com---https://tinyurl.com/Forex-Today-Analysis--- and if you like what I'm doing, you really need to go through those blog posts. Cool stuff, most of the time we in the money.
In the mean time though, despite all the hype about the Euro, I think it gonna whoop your ass if you buy at the tops.It is getting a lot of airtime in the media and you know when that happens, it is at the last leg of a bullish run. Now we have a bearish engulfing pattern and a minor correction higher next week after this steep decline, price might appreciate perhaps to the 63.2% Fibonacci level in the 4HR chart before bears resume. I urge you guys to go short then. I will keep you updated though, no worries.
Break below that support trend line is significant and will signal a long long bear trend. The earlier you get in the ride, the better.
I also post at www.newsbtc.com---https://tinyurl.com/NewsBTC-com---- me and my colleagues do a lot of research to give you the best, preview today and let me know. Ok, I'm marketing this but I just thought you should know. :)
Cheers.
Fuel for a EUR/USD move down/ euro retail sales down MomThe EUR/USD pair has broken down below a steep trendline. This morning, the euro area's retail sales were down .5 percent MoM. I believe this is going to fuel a move down on the pair and we can continue to see the pair trend down as the dollar strengthens and the euro area's economy slows a bit. I think we can see levels all they way down to 1.14 over the first half of the next quarter.
