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CAD edges higher, US confidence data nextThe Canadian dollar is slightly higher on Friday. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2513, down 0.25% on the day. On the fundamental front, Canada will release tier-2 data, including Housing Starts. In the US, today's highlight is UoM Consumer Sentiment, which is expected to accelerate to 88.9 points. Canada's ADP job report has been bleak in recent months, with triple-digit declines in the past two months. However, the indicator roared back in March, with an impressive gain of 634.8 thousand new jobs. ADP attributed the strong rebound in the labour market, which was based in all sectors, to relaxed health restrictions in some provinces. However, the picture could be significantly worse in the April data, as Ontario, the most populous province, imposed a 4-week lockdown at the end of March. Canada's Covid rate per capita is now outpacing the US, and this is likely to take a toll on the economy. The news was far less positive in the manufacturing sector. Manufacturing Sales suffered a decline of 1.6%, worse than the forecast of -1.1%, and its weakest showing in six months. In the US, retail sales surged in March, as consumers loosened their purse strings. Headline retail sales sparkled at 9.8%, while Core Retail Sales rose 8.4%. Both releases easily beat their estimates of 5.8% and 5.1%, respectively. The catalyst for the surge in consumer spending was the latest batch of government stimulus, with US households receiving stimulus cheques of 1400 dollars, as well as many states relaxing health restrictions. US consumers were only too happy to hit the stores and purchase big-ticket items, including cars, electronics and furniture. Somewhat surprisingly, the explosive retail sales release failed to push the US dollar higher, as the currency markets appeared more focused on other matters, such as the vaccine rollout in Germany and France. There is weak support at 1.2478. Below, there is support at 1.2423. Below, there is a pivot point at 1.2556. On the upside, we have resistance at 1.2611 and 1.2689
by OANDA
1
Death Cross Chart Pattern - GoldA death cross occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average. In addition we can observe the weekly EMA ribbon directly on support: Occasionally this is a setup, but if price falls below the ema ribbon that is considered very bearish - particularly on a weekly time frame. Additional Clarity offered on the death cross here: This death cross indicates, according to technical analysis, that the short term trend (50day) has fallen under the long term trend (200day). Treasury Yields are indicating the dollar may rise higher, and as those of us who have been observing the increase in the US Dollar see - a bullish DXY is a bearish signal typically for gold. The 10Y hit its highest level today since Feb of 2020 (which was pre-covid mania) This is because owning bonds offering a yield is preferable vs a commodity that does not offer yield. The Yield in Treasuries is direct competition with gold - along now with the new powerhouse on the block Bitcoin. Keep in mind as well that an ounce of gold now costs .03~ bitcoin! Chart will be provided below. It is also worth stating that Bitcoins market cap is now $975.2B. If we exceed $1.5T Bitcoins market cap will have surpassed silver which one could then assume the next runup will be targeting superseding Golds dominance. The other issue gold has to contend with is optimism from the broader market that as the nation opens back up, and consumers flush with cash we may see, and hopefully so, a broad economic recovery. The irony, and a strength for gold though is that the formula for inflation is M2*V=inflation. We all know that M2 has gone significantly higher, unprecedently higher. Velocity has been more than muted, it has been crushed. I would argue (and may get some counterpoints shooting me down, and I welcome the debate) that as the nation opens back up, we will see an increase in spending and activity and dare I say traveling and vacationing, home improvements, acquisitions of new homes to take advantage of low rates - which will heat up the economy & increase velocity. If velocity increases enough we could see a nice pop in inflation - not calling for hyper inflation, but even a conservative pop could work wonders for gold. Keep in mind that retail sales increased 5.3% in January which is indicative that those stimulus checks are indeed being put to work. www.marketwatch.com Pivot Points for Gold Targets: There is a lot to weigh out when one considers longing gold, but for now gold appears to be in a position where the gold bears have taken over, and the gold bugs are fighting for support. If you enjoy this chart please be sure to like it! If you see things differently I respect your opinion and would love to learn from it! Please be sure to comment and tell me why I may be wrong. And as always friends I wish you nothing but good fortunes and great success!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ZenMode
89
EURUSD - Short - Post Inflation Data ReleaseWe see still EURUSD moving lower as the currency pair continues it's upward momentum despite higher than expected inflation data with core inflation rate YoY coming in at 1.6% vs 1.5% forecast. The EUR has been boosted by greater optimism surrounding the vaccine rollout in the EU as we await key economic data releases including German inflation and US retail sales on Thursday for any significant price action. Therefore we believe there could be some volatility later during the week but we expect prices to resume their medium term downtrend below resistance at 1.214.
Short
by KQMarkets
Australian retail sales in focusThe Australian dollar continues to have a relatively quiet week. Currently, the pair is trading at 0.7609, up 0.18% on the day. Australia's retail sales were a major disappointment in February, as the interim report came in at -1.1%, much worse than the street consensus of +0.6%. The final February release (Thursday 12:30 GMT) is projected to show an identical reading, which would indicate a slump in consumer spending, a key driver of the economy. Earlier on Wednesday, Building Approvals, which tends to show sharp swings, shot up by 21.6% in February, rebounding from a reading of -19.6% a month earlier. This was the strongest one-month gain since 2012. Just five weeks ago, the Australian dollar was looking down from the heights of the 80-level. However, it has been all US dollar since then, as the Aussie strains to stay above the 76 level. The greenback has shown significant strength in recent weeks, thanks to rising US Treasury yields. On Tuesday, the 10-year yield rose to 1.77%, marking a 14-month high.  With the US economy gathering steam, conditions appear right for further gains by the US dollar. The Biden stimulus package of 1.9 trillion dollars is expected to improve economic conditions, and an aggressive vaccine rollout should bring down Covid-19 numbers in the coming weeks and months. The dollar could make further gains before the day is out, with President Biden revealing some details of the 3-4 trillion infrastructure package at a speech in Pittsburgh and the ADP Employment report projecting a stellar gain of 552 thousand (12:15 GMT). AUD/USD faces resistance at 0.7744. Above, there is resistance at 0.7848. On the downside, 0.7560 is providing support. This line could face pressure if the AUD downturn continues. It is followed by support at 0.7460. The US dollar index rose 0.38% to 93.30 overnight, and is at 93.23 today in Europe. The index is now well clear of its 200-day moving average (DMA) at 92.50, with the technical picture suggesting further gains to 94.30 ahead.
by OANDA
Aussie slips as retail sales slideThe Australian dollar is in negative territory for a second straight day. Currently, the pair is trading at 0.7727, down 0.43% on the day. Australia's retail sales started off 2o21 on a decidedly sour note, as the January report came in at -1.1%, much worse than the street consensus of +0.6%. The decline is attributable to Covid restrictions, which had a negative impact on consumer spending. The Aussie is also feeling pressure from the geopolitical front, as a tense meeting in Alaska between senior US and Chinese officials is weighing on investors' risk appetite. Add to this mix higher US Treasury yields, and it's no surprise that the Australian dollar is headed for a disappointing end to the trading week. The Federal Reserve sent the markets a dovish message at its policy meeting on Wednesday, reiterating that it had no plans to raise interest rates before 2023. The US dollar dipped after the Fed meeting, but had little trouble erasing these losses. AUD/USD has posted considerable losses since Thursday's Fed meeting. The catalyst for the recent US dollar strength has been rising US yields, and investors were treated to another rise in yields on Thursday. The bond market has been edgy all week, and an outstanding manufacturing reading was enough to cause a strong selloff in US bonds. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index soared to 51.8 in February, up from 23.1 and its highest level in some 48 years. This signals higher input costs, and US yields took off in response. The US 10-year rose to 1.72%, while the 30-year rose to 2.47%, boosting the US currency.
by OANDA
CDN slips on Fed, Canadian Retail Sales data aheadThe Canadian dollar is considerably lower in the Thursday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2474, up 0.56% on the day. Canada releases Retail Sales for January on Friday (12:30 GMT), with the street consensus pointing to declines. Headline retail sales is expected at -3.0%, while Core Retail Sales is projected at -2.8%. Both indicators registered declines in December, so a repeat would indicate a slump in consumer spending. That could sour investors on the Canadian dollar, which has sparkled in March, with gains of 2.1 per cent. The US dollar has made gains on Thursday, courtesy of a rise in US 10-year Treasury bonds. The Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday did not contain any surprises, as policymakers left monetary policy unchanged and reaffirmed its accommodative monetary policy. The Fed's dot plot was more dovish than expected, with most FOMC members not anticipating a rate hike prior to 2024. At the same time, the Fed's economic outlooks were upbeat, with the growth forecast upwardly revised to 6.5% this year, compared to 4.3% beforehand. Inflation is expected to rise to 2.4% in 2021, but Fed Chair Powell noted that he expected this rise to be a temporary spike that would not affect the Fed's commitment to maintain interest rates at ultra-low levels. The US dollar has not had much trouble weathering the FOMC meeting, despite Powell's pledge to stick with a very dovish monetary policy. On Thursday, the greenback is in positive territory against its major rivals, with higher 10-year Treasury yields providing a boost to the currency.
by OANDA
Euro dips to 4-week low, German Retail Sales slideThe euro is showing limited movement in the European session. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.2035, down 0.10% on the day. The euro hasn't managed a winning day since Thursday, and the pair is perilously close to the 1.20 line, which is a psychologically important level. Germany is the eurozone's largest economy and has traditionally been the economic powerhouse of the bloc. With the eurozone still grappling with the devastating effect of the Covid pandemic, Germany is again being counted on to lift the eurozone to recovery. However, Germany's economy is also showing signs of fatigue. German GDP for Q4 of 2020 showed negligible growth, although the gain of 0.3% managed to beat the street estimate of 0.1%. On Tuesday, German Retail Sales for January came in at -4.5%, after a disastrous -9.6% reading in December. This caught the markets by surprise, as the street consensus stood at +0.2%. The sharp drop in consumer spending can be attributed to the partial Covid-19 lockdown which started back in December. One bright spot in the German and eurozone economies has been the manufacturing sector. In February, German Manufacturing PMI came in at 60.7 and the eurozone read at 57.9, both of which were revised slightly upwards. These figures are well into expansionary territory, and the German release marked a 3-year high. In contrast to the rosy manufacturing numbers, the services industry has lagged behind and remains in contraction mode due to the lockdowns which have curtailed many services. Germany's Services PMI is projected to come in at 45.9, well below the neutral 50-level. EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.2091. Above, there is resistance at 1.2190. On the downside, the pair is putting strong pressure on the 100-day moving average (MA), which is situated at 1.2019. A close below this line would be a technical bearish signal for the pair. The pair is potentially targeting support at 1.1945, which could potentially extend to the round number of 1.1800.
by OANDA
Loonie hovers around 1.2650 awaiting Canadian retail sales...Also firmer vs the Buck, as the , Loonie hovers around 1.2650 awaiting Canadian retail sales and Pound probes barrier defences at 1.4000 following significant beats in UK PMIs, including services that were so ravaged by the return to lockdown last time. On that note, ONS retail sales data was extremely weak in contrast to public finances, but neither impacted that much. Overall USD/CAD has been on the back burner this week due to it being stuck within the monthly wick range. We are pressuring downside so its now up to DXY where this pair is next headed.
by FTUKcom
5
Week ahead – Retail Sales, Speeches and CPI’sHello! I hope you guys had a good Christmas and a Happy New Year, refreshed for the trading year. Before your week ahead, here is what you may have missed over the break. Vaccine rollouts have started all across the world, primarily in the United States and in the United Kingdom OPEC+ Implemented a surprise cut that has become a tailwind for the price of oil, reaching a recent high of $56 Tesla stock continues to skyrocket, with Tesla up 631% from the start of 2020. This has made Elon Musk the wealthiest person in the world, with an estimated net worth of around $250 Billion when you take into account Elon’s other investments Bitcoin touched $40,000 An attack on congress, while trying to ratify the electoral votes, took place a couple of days ago by Pro-Trump Protesters, resulting in 4 deaths. GBP/USD Touched 1.37 Let’s hope this year we can go past the Coronavirus and onto more positive things. Here is your week ahead. Monday, 11th January – Australia’s Retail Sales Australia has been able to recover from their second spike of the Coronavirus well. However, they had not entirely eradicated community transmission amid an outbreak in Sydney’s northern beaches just before Christmas last year. After a two-week lockdown for New South Wales, citizens anxiously wait on whether they will be released from lockdown. With Australia taking part in one of the longest lockdowns of any nation, many employed citizens during the lockdown have amassed an increase in savings, which “saw a large rise, up 21% as retail stores experienced a full month of trade” in the last quarter. Analysts predict an increase in Retail sales this week ahead. Monday, 11th January – Bank of England’s Governor Bailey speech The United Kingdom has not been able to keep a cap on the Coronavirus. Deaths are set to overwhelm the NHS’s hospital beds if the rate of cases continues to rise. At this point, Prime Minister Boris Johnson is betting on the rollout of the vaccine will help dampen the spread of community transmission. Governor Bailey is set to touch on the continued spread and its effect on monetary policy. Wednesday 13th January and Friday 15th January – United States CPI and Retail Sales MoM A buzzword that I have heard recently – the “reflation” trade. Many analysts predict a strong bounce back in the American economy, enabling the Federal Reserve to kick its foot off the gas a little bit, as the consumer starts to become the backbone of the United States economy once again. The Coronavirus in the United States is in dire shape, with cases touching 300,000 per day, with deaths at 373,000. Analysts predict CPI year over year to stay the same at 1.6%. However, they also expect CPI Month over Month to drop slightly to 0.1%, from 0.2%. Furthermore, Retail Sales is set to rise from -1.1% to -0.2% this week ahead. Thursday, 14th January – Federal Reserve’s Jerome Powell Speech With his last speech three weeks citing market-moving comments, it is a reminder that Powell’s words still weight it. His market-moving comments about inflation, stating that “you have to be honest with yourself about inflation these days. There are significant disinflationary pressures around the world..” have analysts’ eyes on his speech coming later this week ahead. It is good to be back. Stay safe, and trade safely.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by BlackBull_Markets
NZDUSD Short SetupHello Traders As you can see in the chart above, the price has formed a rising wedge, and I'm expecting a blast fall for NZD. As of tonight, NZD will release its retail sales statics, and it is expected to be bearish too. On the other hand, I see a Bearish divergence on RSI. It is possible too that price forms a double top pattern too. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ What is your opinion? Comment below. If you like the idea, please hit the like button and subscribe to the profile to not miss my updates. The information given is never financial advice. Always do your research too. Goodluck.
Short
by Crypto_MD
21
Stocks Anticipating Retail SalesStocks caught a lift at the 0.500 Fibonacci exactly as we said they would. Hopefully some of you took advantage of this trade. Currently, they are facing resistance by a collection of levels aroudn the 0.786 Fibonacci level near the technically and psychologically significant 3500 level. This is likely to continue to provide resistance so watch for a small rejection before the S&P is able to punch through. Consider buying back at the levels below. It is unlikely we will have any significant moves in stocks today, since it is Friday, but retail sales at 8:30 AM EST could move it if the numbers are significant. The downside has been priced in already in virtually all macro data indicators. The surprise would be a really good beat to the upside. Otherwise, expect stocks to establish a range for a bit. The Kovach OBV suggests lackluster bull momentum.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Dax daily: 16 Jul 2020Yet another great prediction. If you've read our analysis yesterday and traded it accordingly, we congratulate you for great profits. As we predicted, the price had an initial push lower to closed the gap, which correlated with past VPOC. This was the level which had double significance for buyers who stepped in to take the price to 12 882 and even broke out this resistance. This one functioned to suppress further bullish momentum and Dax quickly returned to retest its importance. The price was oscillating up and down, just to close the day on the same level and formed the VPOC slightly above it. Important zones Resistance: 12 882, 13 119 Support: 12 592 Statistics for today Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application Macroeconomic releases 13:45 CEST - ECB Main Refinancing Rate + Monetary Policy Statement 14:30 CEST - ECB Press Conference 14:30 CEST - USA - Retail Sales & Unemployment claims Today's session hypothesis Today's session opened below 12 882. Market participants will most likely attempt to retest yesterday's close as it correlates with the S/R zone and the VPOC too. This is the area where we'll need to monitor the price action to further establish directional bias. Dax is slowly aiming higher and if the continuation prevails, our bullish target lays up at 13 119. Stay on alert as we have a day packed with fundamental releases and these could easily rock the boat.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by FTMO
So... What is next? Shortest recession in play?Stock market - Against all odds, S&P index has risen almost 32% since hitting a low for the year on March 23. The fact that it happened after a ferocious plunge of 35% between Feb. 20 and March 23, the most devastating sell-off since the great depression, made the feat even more remarkable. As a matter of fact, the market posted its best quarter since 1998, with Nasdaq leading the way by soaring 30.6% for the quarter, the most since 1999. Some speculated that the fast recovery was due to the big outflow of money from the fixed-income market into the stock market as emerging market fails to meet its debt obligation. Others credited young investors (medium age of 31) on Robinhood (3 millions user added 2020, 13 millions total) with stock market's spectacular rally. I personally doubt that the combined purchasing power of all Robinhood users is strong enough to sway the stock market. Nonetheless, the stock market performance is not representative of the entire economy as there are more than 30 millions small & mid-sized company not listed on major U.S stock exchanges GDP - What is even more incredible about the stock market's recovery is that it all happened after various sources estimated the GDP contraction to be around 30% to 50% in second quarter Recently, Fed and policymakers projected the economy to shrink 6.5% (medium projection) in 2020 and the unemployment rate to be 9.3% at the end of the year Corporate earning - According to data from S&P Capital IQ, 40 percent of the S&P 500, about 200 companies, have withdrawn their guidance and declined to make EPS estimate in 2020. This lack of guidance has caused a lot of problem for the prediction of corporate earning. A recent analysis by CNBC earnings editor Robert Hum showed enormous differences at historical level between the high and low estimates for the largest stocks in the S&P 500. According to numbers compiled by the data provider FactSet, second-quarter profits will fall more than 40 percent. Refinitiv is projecting about a 43% drop in second-quarter earnings. Expect to get a more clear picture of corporate earnings around mid-July as banks release their corporate earnings. Even though the stock market is reflecting more of future sentiment than current economic condition, the speed of its recovery seems to indicate that most investors believe that not only will the market erase all the losses in 2020, but also it will quickly resume the long-term growth trend equals that of 2019, which seems highly unlikely to me. Again, it is hard not to notice the massive distortion between the stock market's performance and corporate earning. Unemployment - Initially, the hope is that most temporary layoffs would not turn into permanent job loss. However, as lockdown extends, many furloughed employees are at the risk of becoming unemployed as more and more small businesses going out of the business. Roughly 20 million Americans are currently receiving unemployment benefits and the insured unemployment rate is still high at 13.4%. BLS said that discrepancy in unemployment # due to "misclassification" has been adjusted accordingly. An alternative measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and the underemployed fell to 18% from 21.2%. Overall, better than expected unemployment # and steadily declining initial claim and continuous claim # have painted a much better picture for the labor market. However, unemployment remains at historic levels. Output and employment remain far below their pre-pandemic levels, according to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Pandemic - WHO reported around 180,000 new coronavirus cases last Sunday, the single-largest increase since the pandemic began, with two thirds of new cases coming from the Americas. Around half of the 50 U.S. states were also reporting a rise in new coronavirus cases, most notable in southern states that were previously spared from the Covid-19 ravage. On Tuesday, United States recorded the biggest single-day rise in new cases since the pandemic began. According to Bloomberg report, most experts believe a vaccine won’t be ready until next year. Other factors - Trade war with China and upcoming election... #1. Median existing-home price last month was $284,600, up 2.3% from May 2019. #2. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.13% for the week ending June 18. Mortgage rates have drop to another record low. #3. The number of Americans applying for home mortgages has hit an 11-year high. #4. An index measuring homes in contract to sell, or pending sales, jumped by a record 44% in May. #5. A record spike in U.S. retail sales, though the recovery happened after a huge dive of retail sales a month earlier. #6. PMI has surged sharply after a huge plunge since the pandemic started. It is possible that the # is skewed by the lack of small business participation and the effect of China re-opened its economy ahead of other major economy. I believe most current home buyers are not heavily impacted during this economic downturn and their purchase decisions are probably not indicative of the economic recovery. Shortest recession is made possible because this economic crash was driven by the uncertainty of pandemic rather than economic fundamentals? I don't know. But if you only look at real estate and stock market, it surely seems so.
AMEX:SPY
by Libratus
2
ridethepig | NZD Retail Sales FlowWith retail sales out in NZ tonight it is a good time for a short-term flow update. It to me seems a poor choice of moment to advance for bulls, extending the lows after a retest of the 0.6645/60 sell zone with a weak print tonight makes more sense to me. This would be in accordance with the needs of the flow. The 2020 macro map takes on the retrace leg, but another sweep of the lows would be a more reliable guardian. Here recommending longs into the 0.6645/60 resistance as a good opportunity to sell the headline and mount a last attack for the penetration of the lows. We will update the chart should we see the highs visited today. Good luck all those trading Retail sales, after the distortion around last months print it is highly likely in my books that we see a soft undershoot tonight. As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc.
Long
by ridethepig
8
Could the Weekly Data Break the NZD/USD Range?Later this evening around midnight New Zealand will publish quarterly Retail sales report.The New Zealand Dollar traded mostly flat last week as investors seemed to shrug off the latest developments over the trade deal. Following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s surprise decision to keep monetary policy unchanged at its last meeting, the data will be watched for clues as to whether additional rate cuts are likely in the near-term. If the upcoming data tips the balance more in favor of another rate cut, the kiwi will be unable to break past immediate resistance at around $0.6428, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the July-October decline. Failure to clear this area would bring an end to the latest upswing and will push the kiwi back towards its 50-day SMA just above the 23.6% Fibonacci at $0.6340. A drop below this key support would lead bears focus to October’s 4-year low of $0.6204. However, a positive Retail sales report could be the boost for NZD. The pairs needs to breakout the $0.6428 today's high and will aim for the 50% Fibonacci, which sits close to the $0.65 handle. Kiwi traders also should be watching a speech by RBNZ Governor Orr on Wednesday and the report for ANZ Business Confidence on Thursday. Thursday is also U.S. bank holiday so expect trading volume to taper off throughout the week.
by ForexTrendline
Holiday seasonality play on RETAIL- XRT LONG IDEAXRT is the retail ETF and every year we get a burst around the holiday season if you're patient. Over the past three years, starting the beginning of November into December and even through some of January XRT and the Retail sector popped higher off the increased sales through the holiday season. Even last year while we experienced a correction to bear market in the market, the XRT long play had a chance for profitability by $5-6. This time around we expect a move higher from $43 up to $47 even $50 to capture the retail seasonality. The year to date POC is holding good support unless we see a strong market reversal in the last month of the year, the trade has potential.
AMEX:XRTLong
by TRADEPROAcademy
EURO Vs Loonie (EUR/CAD) Trade Idea and Plan: Bullish biasEUR / CAD has developed higher lows connected by a longer-term upward trend line and also displays lower stochastic lows. This bullish divergence indicates a rebound may occur. With little eye-catching improvements for leading indicators for the eurozone, in this session, I'm hoping to catch a quick bounce for the shared currency. On the flip side, there might be enough expectations for another dip in Canadian retail sales figures to keep the Loonie on a weak footing. On top it all off, the resurfacing uncertainty surrounding trade talks between the U.S. and China could hold a veil on gains for commodity currencies and the dollar, reversing the euro may have chances in that case.
by Anatta0
Pause in trade war shifts market focus on another dataA temporary truce in the trade war was announced. Well, of course, a “truce” is not the right word we prefer a “pause”. The appreciation of the renminbi, as well as the decline in the VIX Index, are further evidence of tensions easing in the financial markets. Against this background, we again pay attention to the sale of gold. But we note that sales with the random points may turn out to be unprofitable, so we select the entry points carefully, taking into account at least an hour overbought and along daily maximum. Recall that the dollar is still very strong, which is bothers Trump. And in itself, it is an opportunity for its sales in the foreign exchange market. But the markets are more interested in the Fed’s further actions - will the Central Bank cut the rate again&? What could spur the Fed on easing monetary policy? First of all, weak macroeconomic data. So today's retail sales data may well give rise to dollar sales. Retail sales report is a monthly measurement of the retail industry. Monthly retail sales data is a chain indicator. That is, The report shows the total sales for the prior month. This specificity leads to the fact that chain indicators tend to fluctuate around the zero and after a strong growth period a decline period follows, and vice versa. So, over the last two months, US retail sales have been growing. To show better results this time too, the indicator must rise quite significantly concerning the three months periods. The US economy has been weak recently, there is a reason to expect weak data on retail sales. Since markets react not to the essence, but to the gossips, the outcome of the indicator in the negative zone (although this may be an increase relative the period of two months ) can trigger dollar sales. In this regard, today we will sell the dollar. First of all, against the pound. Eurozone GDP grew by 0.2 %, however, industrial production decreased, and quite significantly (-1.6% m / m), which is the worst result over the last 3 years. China also showed weak industrial production data: plus 4.8% expected plus 5.8% (the minimum growth rate since 2002). Retail sales in Sino are also worse than expected.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Trade24Fx